The Athletic has ranked their top 30 NHL teams... Leafs and Flames at the top

[Bear of Bad News]

 

[CupofOil]

Wow the athletic has really gone downhill eh? Leafs at #1. Gtfo

Actually, that might be less egregious than Flames at 2, Rangers at 14 and St. Louis at 17 and any list that doesn't have Colorado at 1 shouldn't be taken seriously. I don't think anybody is all that close to them right now even with their losses this offseason.

 

[CantLoseWithMatthews]

Do you truly believe that 'Outscore your Defensive issues' is a valid team strategy?

Why wouldn't scoring more goals than they give up be a good strategy? That's kind of how hockey works

 

[McPoyle]

All I know is a top 2 team in Dom's model has won the cup 5/6 years. So thats something.

 

[ToDavid]

Added a couple more points to the Leafs for the haters.

 

[Arthur Morgan]

I'd rather spend my money on OnlyFans.

cost me 1$ a month

 

[JianYang]

Every single time when a ranking peice comes out, it becomes a popular thread on HF.

It's no wonder they do so many rankings. It drives eyeballs. That's the ultimate goal. They can rank any team anywhere.... There's no combination they can come up with which won't ruffle feathers here.

 

[ThatGuy22]

It's kind of weird how these models were high on Seattle last year, but aren't as high this year when they've actually improved as a roster.

Almost like they had to go back and tweak something in their formula that was putting too much weight on whatever the hell it was that Seattle was supposed to be good at because they realized that (whatever it is) doesn't actually result in actual goals and wins.

It's a player based model, with 3 year sample sizes.. All the players that were in Seattle last year just had a terrible year.

 

[Sergei Shirokov]

All I know is a top 2 team in Dom's model has won the cup 5/6 years. So thats something.

I guess this is going to be the year he's wrong

 

[Sergei Shirokov]

It's a player based model, with 3 year sample sizes.. All the players that were in Seattle last year just had a terrible year.

All the players? Idk about that. Jared McCann had a career year. Jayden Schwartz was having a better season than the year before. Alex Wennberg had his highest point total in years, Yanni Gourde was having a good season. Giordano was solid.

Maybe the model just overvalued the players given they were in better/more beneficial situations prior to joining an expansion team .

 

[Stickpucker]

Boston at 6.

Very generous.

 

[Bear of Bad News]

Jayden Schwartz was having a better season than the year before.

I wouldn't say "better" - I'd say about the same, but it's kind of a moot point since the baseline was the player's prior *three* seasons (and Schwartz's play in 2021-22 was significantly worse than a weighting of his three prior seasons).

Anyhow, I figured that "all" was meant loosely in the context where it was used, but most Kraken players struggled last year relative to established baseline (and goaltending in particular).

 

[LetsGoBLUES91]

You saw Talbot play against the Blues, how can you think ditching him is anything but an upgrade? Fiala’s production is replaced through Rossi, and development of the young core, and an improved D and goalie situation. They have cap space for deadline additions and lots of depth throughout the lineup and call ups.

Some teams just match up better against others, the Blues and Nashville had the Wild’s number last year but the Wild beat everyone else, including a winning record against the Aves. Ask Oilers fans if they want to play the Wild in the playoffs.

Oh well then it's settled then. LOL. Wild to the WCF.

A 21 year old with 2 NHL games in his career is going to automatically replace a 26 year old who put up 85 points in 82 games last year? Okay.

People are lunatics.

 

[LetsGoBLUES91]

Moneypuck just came out with their playoff odds and they have the Avs, Leafs, Stars, Flames, Canes, and Panthers at or near the top. Dom's rankings are pretty much in the same ballpark as Moneypuck's..

That's kinda the point.

If advanced stats are this terrible at predicting things, maybe advanced stats shouldn't be in hockey until they can figure out a better way.

 

[BlueMed]

That's kinda the point.

If advanced stats are this terrible at predicting things, maybe advanced stats shouldn't be in hockey until they can figure out a better way.

People get really offended when realists suggest that maybe these models are entirely too difficult to make. I'll give credit to those like Dom who at least attempt to make these models, but the reality is, these models are extremely limited in the variables they are able to integrate, and human behavior has all sorts of variables that cannot be quantified. At least the weatherman doesn't have to factor in psychology while predicting tomorrow's temperature and forecast.

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

All the players? Idk about that. Jared McCann had a career year. Jayden Schwartz was having a better season than the year before. Alex Wennberg had his highest point total in years, Yanni Gourde was having a good season. Giordano was solid.

Maybe the model just overvalued the players given they were in better/more beneficial situations prior to joining an expansion team .

This is exactly it. These models seem to just take whatever analytics a player had with his previous team, then plop him onto his new team and assume that'll carry over when in reality that hardly happens, particularly with fringe players.

Player X produced these analytics next to Victor Hedman, therefore he'll produce the same results on this expansion team even though he's now the #1D and he's paired with Joe Average.

I remember Dougie Hamilton being overrated for the same reason. Great analytics paired with Slavin on a strong Carolina team, so suddenly he's going to turn the Devils into a playoff team because those analytics performance will just carry over to his new team. Didn't quite change New Jersey's fortunes nor his own individual performance remain the same.

 

[Rubi]

That's kinda the point.

If advanced stats are this terrible at predicting things, maybe advanced stats shouldn't be in hockey until they can figure out a better way.

I think everybody takes the analytic predictions with a grain of salt. They only get posted because portions of them are fun to laugh at and they encourage discussion and a healthy combativeness. I know I personally would never go out and bet say $1000 (which to me is a lot of $$) just because some analytic person says Calgary is the favorite to win the cup. I might bet $10 though. LOL.

 

[Obvious Fabertism]

Oh well then it's settled then. LOL. Wild to the WCF.



People are lunatics.

This model predicts a 7 point drop in the standings for the Wild from last season, I said nothing about them going the WCF. Fiala was not traded for “nothing” either, Faber will likely be on the team as soon as the Gophers season is over. The only turnover was a 3rd line winger and two worse than replacement level goalies. I have yet to see a single model that predicts the Wild as not a playoff team and yet I am the lunatic and not you, who clearly lacks an understanding of the teams current competitiveness.

 

[Panthaz89]

I think Buffalo will do better as well.

I'm pretty sure they expect Buffalo to lose 10 games to Aaron Dell again and have to play 6 goalies again this season with the way they were ranked considering it couldn't have gotten much worse injury wise last year.

 

[Panthaz89]

This is categorically false. Dom’s model is clearly outperforming the general public - it’s outperforming the sportsbooks! And they have a very strong financial incentive to have accurate odds. In sports betting, a 3% edge on the house is massive and adds up to a lot of profit. If he’s 3% ahead, he’s doing very well.

If the average fan could predict games better than Dom’s model, every sportsbook would be broke.

sportsbook takes into account where they expect bets to go not simply what they think will happen. They will always take the Leafs fans money when they are constantly putting money down for them having the best chance at cup knowing a lot of people that bet aren't necessarily in it because they have analyzed every team in the league.

 

[Panthaz89]

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But yeah everyone in here shitting on his model knows so much more and could do better

congrats literally the two teams that everyone expects to win it all are there you don't need a model to predict the obvious.

 

[Panthaz89]

The team that won the cup just lost two important players to free agency

They steamrolled most of the playoffs and were missing Kadri for a good portion of it still better than any other team easily imo.

 

[Haatley]

Calgary has a whole different group. They brought in some really good players, and lost some really good players. We don’t know how the team is going to gel, so I’d have a real tough time having them as number 2.

They still have a vezina candidate goalie and a top 3 defence.

 

[Rengorlex]

These fan survay results seem intuitively good. It'll be interesting to see how well they do vs these models.

 

[ijuka]

These fan survay results seem intuitively good. It'll be interesting to see how well they do vs these models.

View attachment 591628

They might be better, but I disagree on some things.

I think that Leafs are overrated, feels like the goalie issue's just glanced over or ignored. Compare to Tampa, they have one of the top goalies. Perhaps the best after Shastyorkin and Hellebyuck, if I had to guesstimate. Meanwhile, Leafs have a bottom 5 duo at best, maybe bottom 3.

I also think Capitals are probably too low. And Blues look too high.

Still, most of the other issues are like 1 placement adjustments, though with Leafs I'd drop them to #3 if not #4 behind Bruins. Closer to a top 12 team than a top 3 team in the league.