The Athletic has ranked their top 30 NHL teams... Leafs and Flames at the top
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KirkAlbuquerque
#WeNeverGetAGoodCoach
more like a team that has done nothing to deserve #1 is ranked #1 by a guy who is notorious for overrating said team because its his favorite team.
But sure 'LOL H8erzzzz'
Sidney the Kidney
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For the record, my issue is more with some teams seemingly always getting a bump for no reason (ie. New Jersey, Seattle) because some analytics model gives them credit for something they apparently do well on a chart that doesn't translate well to on-ice results.
A part of me would be kind of happy to see the Leafs do well because that likely means Matt Murray had an outstanding season and I'm cheering for the guy, especially after how much crap he's taken and how people have revised history to make it sound like he barely played a part in the back-to-back Cups.
Of course, if Murray is hurt all year and Samsonov is the goalie then I don't care if the Leafs crash and burn in that scenario.
Bank Shot
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Peasy
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And 5 out of the past 6 seasons, one of his top 2 teams won the cup. How's that?
It's not easy to predict every single playoff team because there will be a lot of variance between the middle of the pack teams due to just simple parity in the league.
But his model has done a great job identifying the top teams.
KirkAlbuquerque
#WeNeverGetAGoodCoach
so, i predicted the Lightning would win in 2020 and the Avs would win 2022, and i got receipts to prove it.
Based Anime Fan
Himedanshi Bandit
To be fair almost the entire hockey world predicted Colorado last year before the 1st game of the season was even played, 2020 Tampa was pretty much the same thing
Leafs with that goaltending tandem at #1 is certainly a choice.
…aren’t you forgetting losing Husso who played 40 games with a 25-7-6 record, 2.56 GAA, and a .919 S%, and deciding to run with Binnington who played 37 games with a 18-14-4 record, a 3.13 GAA, and a .901 save percentage? I’m not saying the Blues aren’t going to be good again this year, but I don’t think Perron is the biggest reason you guys dropped in the rankings.
ccman68
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Are you people actually this brain dead? the rankings have literally nothing do with his opinion so I would love you to explain where the bias is coming from.
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Himedanshi Bandit
An extra 40 games of Boldy and a 40 point Rossi fully replaces that, but it’s not even necessary, the Wild had zero issues with scoring last season, weak goaltending and poor special teams were the problem.
Bank Shot
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I believe it. The model probably showed that they'd sell more subscriptions if Toronto were ranked #1.
Sidney the Kidney
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People keep saying this despite the fact most people would have had those same teams in their top 2 or top 3 going into those respective seasons. Like, who didn't think Colorado was one of the favorites to win last year? Who didn't think Tampa was one of the favorites to win in their back to back years? The only team that won the Cup that most fans probably wouldn't have picked in their top 5 is St. Louis, and his model got that one wrong too.
IMO, it would actually be more impressive if his model and models like his were good at picking the more NON-obvious choices to make the playoffs. That's something they could hang their hat on by saying "sure anyone can pick the top 2 or 3 teams, but my model predicted Team X would make the playoffs when everyone else thought they'd finish well out".
Think about it. Which would you be more impressed by? If my top 3 going into this season is Colorado, Tampa and Carolina (for instance) and one of them ends up winning the Cup? Or if I do a top 8 for each conference and happen to be correct on all 8 teams per conference AND nail 3 teams making the playoffs that most other people thought had no chance?
TheGroceryStick
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pabst blue ribbon
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I don't have the Leafs as my #1 team, but the idea that they won't be one of the best RS teams in the league because they have shaky goaltending was outright disproven last season.
MarkusNaslund19
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- Dec 28, 2005
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"Dom"'s model is embarrassing.
Hockey is a sport of hundreds of simultaneous confounding variables at all times.
People watched Moneyball and got an erection over the idea that they could finally stick it to the 'jocks' who stuffed them in lockers (I'm obviously anti-bullying, just making a point).
People who defend his bullshit with 'he outperforms the Vegas odds!' it's like, well picking winners on a given single day is different than knowing anything about players, or how teams will do for starters.
Further, many people who know the sport well and spent time paying attention to it could beat the Vegas odds.
I think the Canucks are a little low, but I won't die on that hill knowing I will be called a homer, and it's certainly within the realm of possibility that we finish 18th.
Buffalo is far too low, St. Louis is far too low, Boston is ridiculously high even without their catastrophic injuries to start the year. Leafs and Flames are too high.
Leafs are counting on two absolute wildcards in net. Samsonov and Murray are both talented enough to thrive, but equally likely to finish 63rd and 64th in save percentage.
Flames had a year where every single thing went right. People keep forgetting how pathetic they were in the shortened season.
They just lost 2/3rds of a magic 5 on 5 line that decimated almost all of their match-ups. I love Huberdeau, but that chemistry is really unlikely to strike twice.
Flames and Leafs are good teams, probably top 10 (Leafs probably top 5), but this list like most of what Dom does is just masturbation for people who never played and don't know what they're watching when they bother turning the tv on.
Hockey is a sport of hundreds of simultaneous confounding variables at all times.
People watched Moneyball and got an erection over the idea that they could finally stick it to the 'jocks' who stuffed them in lockers (I'm obviously anti-bullying, just making a point).
People who defend his bullshit with 'he outperforms the Vegas odds!' it's like, well picking winners on a given single day is different than knowing anything about players, or how teams will do for starters.
Further, many people who know the sport well and spent time paying attention to it could beat the Vegas odds.
I think the Canucks are a little low, but I won't die on that hill knowing I will be called a homer, and it's certainly within the realm of possibility that we finish 18th.
Buffalo is far too low, St. Louis is far too low, Boston is ridiculously high even without their catastrophic injuries to start the year. Leafs and Flames are too high.
Leafs are counting on two absolute wildcards in net. Samsonov and Murray are both talented enough to thrive, but equally likely to finish 63rd and 64th in save percentage.
Flames had a year where every single thing went right. People keep forgetting how pathetic they were in the shortened season.
They just lost 2/3rds of a magic 5 on 5 line that decimated almost all of their match-ups. I love Huberdeau, but that chemistry is really unlikely to strike twice.
Flames and Leafs are good teams, probably top 10 (Leafs probably top 5), but this list like most of what Dom does is just masturbation for people who never played and don't know what they're watching when they bother turning the tv on.
MarkusNaslund19
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Lol at lumping in the idea of players being 'clutch' with quack medicine practitioners.
The idea of clutchness refers to human psychology, you know, also science.
Where these models (and STEM lords in general) constantly fall apart is that they forget that they are quantifying human behaviour, not which balls will pop out of a bingo bubble.
Of course some players are more clutch than others, have you ever in your life played a single sport? Ever noticed how some players are way better in practice, or way better when the stakes are low (like scoring a hattrick in an 8-3 win), but then disappear when the stakes are raised?
Because humans react to pressure differently. The absolute smugness of thinking that 'teh numberz' can predict everything and that there's no difference between who might score the 7th goal in a 7-1 win in January, versus an overtime game in game 7 just shows a hilariously naive misunderstanding of...well, several things.
Straight Fire
Registered User
Did you watch the Leafs at all last year? I think there is a close to 0% chance the goaltenders play worse than Campbell/Mrazek last year.
