The Athletic has ranked their top 30 NHL teams... Leafs and Flames at the top

[Maplebeasts]

They might be better, but I disagree on some things.

I think that Leafs are overrated, feels like the goalie issue's just glanced over or ignored. Compare to Tampa, they have one of the top goalies. Perhaps the best after Shastyorkin and Hellebyuck, if I had to guesstimate. Meanwhile, Leafs have a bottom 5 duo at best, maybe bottom 3.

I also think Capitals are probably too low. And Blues look too high.

Still, most of the other issues are like 1 placement adjustments, though with Leafs I'd drop them to #3 if not #4 behind Bruins. Closer to a top 12 team than a top 3 team in the league.

They played at a 113 point pace getting sub .890 goaltending for most of last season. They are no doubt a top regular season team.

 

[Halakitlikethat]

They still have a vezina candidate goalie and a top 3 defence.

Absolutely and I still think they are a good team. I’m just not ready to have them at number 2 in league rankings, although I would assume the ranking was based off some formula. I’m curious to see how their team comes together.

 

[FlamesFan18]

As a Flames fan I don't buy this. Being ranked above Colorado is madness and to be ranked above Edmonton makes sense from a regular season 82-game standpoint, but I sure as hell don't feel like we are the better team when we play McJesus.

 

[JuJu Mobb]

Leafs being no.1 is not that egregious.

I don't like Calgary at no.2 and St. Louis is grossly underrated at no.17.

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

These fan survay results seem intuitively good. It'll be interesting to see how well they do vs these models.

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I don't mind the rankings, but the point projections still seem low. With the OT/SO loser point, these point finishes are probably underestimating a lot of the playoff teams' totals by about 5 to 6 points. For instance, it has 7 teams making the playoffs with 97 points or less. In most seasons, you need that amount just to be the final wildcard team.

 

[traparatus]

These fan survay results seem intuitively good. It'll be interesting to see how well they do vs these models.

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These fan survey results also looked intuitively good a season ago.

 

[JianYang]

They might be better, but I disagree on some things.

I think that Leafs are overrated, feels like the goalie issue's just glanced over or ignored. Compare to Tampa, they have one of the top goalies. Perhaps the best after Shastyorkin and Hellebyuck, if I had to guesstimate. Meanwhile, Leafs have a bottom 5 duo at best, maybe bottom 3.

I also think Capitals are probably too low. And Blues look too high.

Still, most of the other issues are like 1 placement adjustments, though with Leafs I'd drop them to #3 if not #4 behind Bruins. Closer to a top 12 team than a top 3 team in the league.

I don't think we can reastically say the leafs are overrated in the context of regular season hockey. They have proven to be successful at it. I'm not doing any overall standings predictions but I do have them at the top of their division.

Two of the biggest contenders to the leafs for the division are Florida and tampa. Both teams are kind of in a "been there, done that mode" with respect to the regular season divisional title, and I think particularly tampa needs to pace themselves with all the hockey they have played over the last 3 years.

It's Toronto's division to lose.

 

[JianYang]

They still have a vezina candidate goalie and a top 3 defence.

Yeah, I don't know if Calgary is better or worse.... But they are different.

And just being so different in itself is probably going to cost them some regular season time. We can't ignore that it takes some real time to get the players to find their niche and getting in sync with the linemates when there is such massive rocking of the core.

With that in mind, I think it will be very difficult to maintain a #2 overall pace, and even on paper, I'm not convinced that they belong in that tier.

 

[ijuka]

I don't think we can reastically say the leafs are overrated in the context of regular season hockey. They have proven to be successful at it.

No they haven't, because they didn't have these goalies before. They were proven with different goalies.

 

[JianYang]

No they haven't, because they didn't have these goalies before. They were proven with different goalies.

The goaltending will have different nameplates on the back, but what I expect to continue is that the "generic" goaltender won't stop them from climbing the standings. They've covered it up in the past, and I expect them to do it again.

We can bring out the magnifying glasses in the playoffs, but again I've kept the context of the discussion to regular season.

 

[adsfan]

As a Nashville fan, I expect Colorado to run away with the division.

Nashville is picked as 13th. Since I expect them to come in third in their division, that seems about right.

St Louis might come in second. Positions 3 to 5 in the Central will be a horse race.

 

[McVespa99]

Any list that has Boston, Calgary and Toronto where they are is a joke. Calgary looks good on paper but has no chemistry or history together.
Toronto has not won a round in forever.
Boston? Dont see that at all.
But I could be wrong. Thats why they play the games

 

[bossram]

sportsbook takes into account where they expect bets to go not simply what they think will happen. They will always take the Leafs fans money when they are constantly putting money down for them having the best chance at cup knowing a lot of people that bet aren't necessarily in it because they have analyzed every team in the league.

Yeah, books try to maximize profit, not necessarily their odds. I mentioned that in another post.

But if they post egregious lines, sharps will just hammer the other side and they'll get taken to the cleaners. Which is why they ultimately need to have fairly "true" odds.

If you're beating the books, you're doing very well.

 

[lomiller1]

That's kinda the point.

If advanced stats are this terrible at predicting things, maybe advanced stats shouldn't be in hockey until they can figure out a better way.

They show predictive skill, or at least many of the do, so we should not ignore them. In fact they show more predictive skill then talking heads or random message board posters putting their thumbs in the air and saying "I think *****".


One thing to keep in mind with any hockey prediction is that random chance plays a big role in game and even series outcome, this can't be successfully predicted by any method. Even message board consensus opinions like "If Colorado isn't #1...". The problem is that Colorado could have the best chance to win the cup and still get knocked out in the first round.

 

[ccman68]

can we just get rid of athletic threads? no one here has a subscription so everyone is just making up bullshit because they can. zero smart comments in this thread. complete waste of time

 

[SPLBRUIN]

Boston at 6.

Very generous.

I agree only because the Bruins start the year with major injuries to Marchand and Krejci. When fully healthy this is the best Bruins teams in years, 2 solid goalies with upside, Lindholm on D for an entire year and a top 6 as good as anyone with lines of Bergeron-Marchand-Debrusk and Krejci-Hall-Pastrnak and a 3rd line centered by Coyle who is an above average 3rd line center. Having a new head coach in Montgomery is also a positive as Cassidy though successful had worn out his welcome.

I agree only because the Bruins start the year with major injuries to Marchand and Krejci. When fully healthy this is the best Bruins teams in years, 2 solid goalies with upside, Lindholm on D for an entire year and a top 6 as good as anyone with lines of Bergeron-Marchand-Debrusk and Krejci-Hall-Pastrnak and a 3rd line centered by Coyle who is an above average 3rd line center. Having a new head coach in Montgomery is also a positive as Cassidy though successful had worn out his welcome.

Actually I meant Marchand and McAvoy, not Krejci, my mistake.

 

[the]

Congratulations to Leafs Nation.

 

[Ciao]

can we just get rid of athletic threads? no one here has a subscription so everyone is just making up bullshit because they can. zero smart comments in this thread. complete waste of time

Don't read them.

I have an Athletic subscription, as do my friends, and I'm interested to see commentary on articles like this.

No one is making you land here, and you're not adding anything to the conversation.

 

[PatriceBergeronFan]

Any list that has Boston, Calgary and Toronto where they are is a joke. Calgary looks good on paper but has no chemistry or history together.
Toronto has not won a round in forever.
Boston? Dont see that at all.
But I could be wrong. Thats why they play the games

On paper the Bruins have quite a strong roster with health and Marchand/McAvoy's return. Top ten is hardly a reach this season. Next season it likely will be.

 

[McVespa99]

On paper the Bruins have quite a strong roster with health and Marchand/McAvoy's return. Top ten is hardly a reach this season. Next season it likely will be.

Im not saying they suck or will suck. 6 just seems overly optimistic to me.

 

[onetweasy]

Hard to argue the top 2……..haha always good for a laugh thaman

 

[nowhereman]

Dom basically just tailors his model to prop up the Leafs and has done so for years. You'd think he'd realize it's futility at some point or, at least, his bosses would.

 

[im gangster]

Aren’t there 32 teams? Two were excluded? What?

 

[1989]

Aren’t there 32 teams? Two were excluded? What?

Coyotes suck so bad they were excluded twice.

 

[DavidpauseReinbacher]

It's downright disrespectful not to have Colorado at #1

Yeah the one thing statistics and numbers are is disrespectful.