Speculation: The All Encompassing Edmonton Oilers Thread

Jumptheshark

Rebooting myself
Oct 12, 2003
100,921
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Somewhere on Uranus
This thread and other are funny.

McDavid is one of the top players in the world and I love how some fans are running him down and expect the oilers to get only pennies on the dollar. McDavid is signed for 2 years after this one. We have seen players not as good as McDavid get traded with less time on the contracts get a lot.
 

independent observer

Registered User
Apr 9, 2023
325
256
Assume both sides can sort out any cap/roster implications.

Does this make both teams better?
That sounds like win win…
Will improve Oilers defense markedly

Bad for Oilers

Mcdavid is a top 5 player all time at worse

Slavin and Aho is not enough

The price I would say though will get laughed at so until a Mcdavid or Draisaitl trade actually happens I cant define their value
McD is not even in the top 40 in scoring…
Top 5 all time should be able to drag his team out of misery… mcd reputation is taking a real bad hit

Regardless of injury or not. When he suits up, he better contribute
 
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wmupreds

Registered User
Dec 15, 2022
1,211
1,666
Marginal value is a fundamental economic concept that has infinite applications both inside and outside of hockey, not a single hockey stat that can only be used in a single way. You can absolutely apply the concept to how important a particular position is within a roster. Goaltending is the most important, followed by defense, followed by forwards. You can break that down further to RD/LD or center versus wingers, or how valuable a 3rd liner is versus a 4th liner.

You also have to look at the marginal value of players not just adjusted for position, but adjusted for contracts. McDavid's contract is substantially more expensive than the vast majority of other players in the league. So you're paying 50% more for a guy who might only be 10% more valuable to a team on his own- so do you want to pay that, or do you want to split that extra money across 5 positions lower in your lineup where the additional dollar buys a much larger increase in talent? The difference between Aho and McDavid is currently roughly $4 million. McDavid is better than Aho, but is that gap in talent more than the gap in talent between a guy paid $1m and a guy paid $5m? So you do you spend that much to upgrade one forward, or do you spend that additional money to pay your 3rd D pair, who spend 15 minutes or so on the ice each, an additional $2m each? What buys you the most value to a winning roster?

Those are all questions of marginal value. If you only think of it as comparing one forward to another forward, you're entirely missing the point.
I know what the concept is, but for your application of it to make any sense Slavin has to be as far ahead of the pack of defensive defensemen as McDavid is of other forwards, which you've given extremely little evidence for. Frankly, it's almost impossible given how much more value offensive contribution creates (and the fact that McD is an average to above average defensive player in his own right). As long as goaltending is a thing anywhere close to it's current form, defensive dmen simply will not have that kind of value. (Here is where I could score cheap points pointing out Carolina's abysmal 2023 Sv% and blaming Slavin, but that would be stooping to Canes fan logic in this thread)

Talking about contracts is closer to the mark. Slavin is in fact on a great deal. However, while this year's sh-t show is certainly an outlier, McD has been an absolute bargain at $12.5M to this point.
 

Classic Devil

Spirit of 1988
Dec 23, 2003
39,365
4,094
Columbus, Ohio
Daily Faceoff best shutdown defenseman

ankPlayerPosAgeTeamTotal DenialsCarry DenialDZ Deflect TurnoverDZ Pass IntIso xGA
1Jaccob SlavinLD28CAR69312-13.3%
2Aaron EkbladRD26FLA1219157-12.6%
3Charlie McAvoyRD24BOS989643-12.2%
4Jonas BrodinLD29MIN37221818-11.6%
5Travis SanheimLD26PHI3182328-6.2%
6Colton ParaykoRD29STL4301622-4.4%
7Alex PietrangeloRD32VGK1736278+2.4%
8MacKenzie WeegarRD28CGY752010-1.4%
9Damon SeversonRD28NJD52173+0.8%
10Devon ToewsLD28COL86971414-3.7%
11Darnell NurseLD27EDM322132127-6.5%
12Brandon CarloRD28BOS54533120-5.1%
13Josh MorrisseyLD27WPG202324100-5.3%
14Ryan GravesLD27NJD29262134-4.5%
15Noah HanifinLD25CGY12219106-3.2%
16Jonas SieganthalerLD25NJD5216674-15.1%
17TJ BrodieLD32TOR17173952-8.8%
18Mattias SamuelssonLD22BUF23101237-5.2%
19Vladislav GavrikovLD26CBJ3483265+1.7%
20Adam LarssonRD29SEA10192977-0.5%
What order is this list even in? It appears from it Jonas Siegenthaler has the best Iso xGA of them all. Edmonton, if you'd do McDavid for Siegenthaler straight up, please call Fitzy!
 

cptjeff

Reprehensible User
Sep 18, 2008
21,783
39,196
Washington, DC.
This thread and other are funny.

McDavid is one of the top players in the world and I love how some fans are running him down and expect the oilers to get only pennies on the dollar. McDavid is signed for 2 years after this one. We have seen players not as good as McDavid get traded with less time on the contracts get a lot.
I want to be clear- in no way should my comments be interpreted as running down McDavid. McDavid is the best player in the world right now. But player skill in a vacuum is not how teams are built (good ones, anyway).

I don't expect the Oilers to take pennies on the dollar in a trade. I don't expect him to be traded at all. What the Oilers would need in return simply for PR value is so massive that no team could give them that return without significantly weakening their team overall. Even if McDavid has told them he will not re-sign the Oilers would still be demanding too much as a pending UFA because the fans would quite literally riot if he returned anything less than a star player signed long term. He will re-sign or he will leave the Oilers in free agency for no return at all.

The Gretzky trade happened because back then you could trade cash, and Pocklington needed cash. It also happened in an uncapped world where you could pay elite players more without taking it from other parts of your roster. That can't happen today.
 

ninetyeight

Registered User
Jun 3, 2007
2,092
3,124
Finland
Preface: It sucks to suck and I think McDavid is the best player on the planet.

I don't think McDavid would work well on the Canes.

He seems like a me first diva who would clash heavily with Brindamour. He would never work out here. He wants to be in Montreal, Edmonton (if they didn't suck shark dong) New York or maybe LA. Just like some people hate playing in Toronto or Montreal and love to play in Carolina or Anaheim.

McDavid has more value than Slavin and Aho but I don't think that trade makes the Canes better because of the factors listed above.

That's just a fancy way of saying Slavin > McDavid, at least the other delusional nutcase canes fans were honest :laugh:
 
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GreeningOil

Yarpmeister
Jun 22, 2016
3,251
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Saskatoon
N
How many conference has Edmonton Sniffed in the past 5 years?

2019 - Canes - Conference finals; Oilers missed playoffs
2020 - Canes - won qualifying round lost first round - Oilers - Lost Qualifying Round
2021 - Canes - Lost Semi-finals won one round - Oilers Lost First Round
2022 - Canes - Lost Semi-Finals won one Round - Oilers Lost Conference finals won 2 round
2023 - Canes - Lost Conference finals won two rounds - Oilers Lost Semi-Finals won 1 round.

And it's no secret the Hockey experts say the Eastern Conferences is the toughest of the 2 conferences.
No cups dawg. That looks like a long resume of not winning the big games.

I also don’t think Slavin is the reason the Canes got to where they are. They are very clearly a much more balanced team and better at most positions lol
 

CTHabsfan

Registered User
Jul 28, 2007
1,426
1,174
They've won a LOT more playoff games despite no cup.
The Canadiens can make a better offer to Edmonton. David Savard (Stanley Cup champion), Jake Allen (Stanley Cup champion), Brendan Gallagher (Stanley Cup finalist), and Joel Armia (Stanley Cup finalist) for Connor Never Been to the Finals McDavid. The Oilers would be fools to pass up this offer, FOOLS I SAY!!!!!
 
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cptjeff

Reprehensible User
Sep 18, 2008
21,783
39,196
Washington, DC.
I know what the concept is, but for your application of it to make any sense Slavin has to be as far ahead of the pack of defensive defensemen as McDavid is of other forwards, which you've given extremely little evidence for. Frankly, it's almost impossible given how much more value offensive contribution creates (and the fact that McD is an average to above average defensive player in his own right). As long as goaltending is a thing anywhere close to it's current form, defensive dmen simply will not have that kind of value. (Here is where I could score cheap points pointing out Carolina's abysmal 2023 Sv% and blaming Slavin, but that would be stooping to Canes fan logic in this thread)

Talking about contracts is closer to the mark. Slavin is in fact on a great deal. However, while this year's sh-t show is certainly an outlier, McD has been an absolute bargain at $12.5M to this point.
Point one: Slavin is as far ahead of other defenseman defensively as McDavid is of other forwards. it's worth noting that in head to head matchups, Slavin has dominated against McDavid, and is essentially the only defenseman in the league who has.

Defensive metrics are just utterly terrible across the board, most of them based on shot attempts, like the ones that claim McDavid is an average defensive player because the ratio of offensive chances he creates to defensive chances he gives up is decent. That means he's creating enough offense to outscore his defensive impact, not that he's good defensively. Slavin has also suffered in some of those metrics because he's not generating offensively, leading to Dom famously and hilariously claiming that Slavin was being carried defensively by Dougie Hamilton.

Point two: Offense is not more any valuable than defense. Giving up fewer goals than you score is how you win the game. Scoring goals and preventing them have equal value. You, and the league, have always played a much higher value on offense, because hey, it's sexy. That is an emotional response, not a rational one. Edmonton is losing games and has likely already bombed themselves out of the playoffs because they do not value defense. There should be a lesson there.

To me, this is just a really simple abstract question: Would you rather have the best offensive player in the league or the best defensive player?
 
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AveryStar4Eva

Registered User
Aug 28, 2014
7,453
5,782
Didn’t think I’d ever find myself saying no to a McDavid trade, but as a Stars fan I’d have to pass. With how this trade would leave our blue line they would have no zero chance at a cup
 

Nucks2001

Registered User
Jul 6, 2023
490
373
Okay this would never happen. However, this actually isn’t far off for what I would offer McDavid. Slavin is the best shutdown defender in the league and Aho is a borderline top 10 centre. You’d probably have to package in AT LEAST 2 first rounders with that. I think people are overestimating McDavid’s value. Now this would be a fair trade, would the Oilers take it? I doubt it.

Slavin immediately bolsters Edmonton’s blueline. Aho also provides good two-way play and probably puts up more points in an offensively minded oilers system. IMO, it’s not that bad. You still have Draistil-Aho as your 1-2 punch AND Slavin and 2 FIRST rounders that you can use to trade for other players or improve your prospect pool.
 
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Jumptheshark

Rebooting myself
Oct 12, 2003
100,921
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Somewhere on Uranus
I want to be clear- in no way should my comments be interpreted as running down McDavid. McDavid is the best player in the world right now. But player skill in a vacuum is not how teams are built (good ones, anyway).

I don't expect the Oilers to take pennies on the dollar in a trade. I don't expect him to be traded at all. What the Oilers would need in return simply for PR value is so massive that no team could give them that return without significantly weakening their team overall. Even if McDavid has told them he will not re-sign the Oilers would still be demanding too much as a pending UFA because the fans would quite literally riot if he returned anything less than a star player signed long term. He will re-sign or he will leave the Oilers in free agency for no return at all.

The Gretzky trade happened because back then you could trade cash, and Pocklington needed cash. It also happened in an uncapped world where you could pay elite players more without taking it from other parts of your roster. That can't happen today.
I was not refering to your post. I was refering to post where it was suggested that the oilers would have trouble getting anything of value for for McDavid
 

Jumptheshark

Rebooting myself
Oct 12, 2003
100,921
14,806
Somewhere on Uranus
Okay, this would never happen. However, this actually isn’t far off for what I would offer McDavid. Slavin is the best shutdown defender in the league and Aho is a borderline top 10 centre. You’d probably have to package in AT LEAST 2 first rounders with that. I think people are overestimating McDavid’s value. Now this would be a fair trade, would the Oilers take it? I doubt it.
No we are not over valuing McDavids value.

here is an article addressing THE BEST SHUTDOWN d-men in the league--it is from last season

Top D men from earlier this year

 
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cwede

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Sep 1, 2010
9,983
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Probably not right for either

Oil turning away from McD would be traumatic and maybe alienating

for Stars
the delta up from Hintz to McD is a fraction of
the likely drop from Heiskinen to Broberg
and just the huge depth impact losing Heiskinen from Stars D could undermine their success

kinda reminds of the Espo/Vadnais for Ratelle/Park mid'70s

a hall-of-famer/dominant league-leader C (plus a good D) for 2 also-eventual HOF players
Bruins made out better the next few years,
Stars should remember that and beware
 
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GOilers88

#FreeMoustacheRides
Dec 24, 2016
15,155
22,683
Seems silly to have 18 different Oilers threads on the first page here, but here we are.

Can we just have one giant thread for all trades involving the Oilers for now?
 

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