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The Advanced Stats Thread Episode VII: An Ode to the Sanity of Silverfish

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Trotz shelters Carlson like a dandelion.

You can't even argue in the non-nerd sense that he's their #1 D.

He's their #3 at best and the Caps know it, which means their top pair is actually pretty sick.
 
Machinehead said:
Trotz shelters Carlson like a dandelion.

You can't even argue in the non-nerd sense that he's their #1 D.

He's their #3 at best and the Caps know it, which means their top pair is actually pretty sick.
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I know, I was just busting your balls. His PP play shot his GAR through the roof. Thanks Ovi!
 
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To do list:

1. Scrape 1718 season
2. Develop (bad) xG model and replace shot attempts in post-game chart dumps
3. Find way to publish or get use out of defense similarity tool
4. Any and all NWHL work when PBP makes it into my inbox
5. ???
6. Get hired by Rangers and become Jim Sullivan's boss

Is there anything cool that we should be doing that we aren't?
 
silverfish said:
To do list:

1. Scrape 1718 season
2. Develop (bad) xG model and replace shot attempts in post-game chart dumps
3. Find way to publish or get use out of defense similarity tool
4. Any and all NWHL work when PBP makes it into my inbox
5. ???
6. Get hired by Rangers and become Jim Sullivan's boss

Is there anything cool that we should be doing that we aren't?
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Going outside and getting some sun?
 
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silverfish said:
To do list:

1. Scrape 1718 season
2. Develop (bad) xG model and replace shot attempts in post-game chart dumps
3. Find way to publish or get use out of defense similarity tool
4. Any and all NWHL work when PBP makes it into my inbox
5. ???
6. Get hired by Rangers and become Jim Sullivan's boss

Is there anything cool that we should be doing that we aren't?
Click to expand...
Which league was operating 300 years ago?
 
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Plug Chytil and Andersson getting that Hayes usage after we trade him right into my veins. Watch HFNYR's reaction to what their stats look like if that happens.

Just. You. Watch.

E4b6mOH.png


I know I'm kind of being a hater about all this Hayes spec, but I believe it is very poor asset management all around to trade him in the hopes that Andersson or Chytil replace him.

We'd need to insulate the f*** out of them at 2C with wingers that we do not have. It's just... I don't know. Doesn't seem like a good idea to me, but wtf do I know.
 
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silverfish said:
Plug Chytil and Andersson getting that Hayes usage after we trade him right into my veins. Watch HFNYR's reaction to what their stats look like if that happens.

Just. You. Watch.

E4b6mOH.png


I know I'm kind of being a hater about all this Hayes spec, but I believe it is very poor asset management all around to trade him in the hopes that Andersson or Chytil replace him.

We'd need to insulate the **** out of them at 2C with wingers that we do not have. It's just... I don't know. Doesn't seem like a good idea to me, but wtf do I know.
Click to expand...
 
FWIW, I think Hayes is only moved if the return is a proven player.

He is much too valuable to us right now in the interim between past and present. Also, I'm choosing to believe that Gorton wouldn't of invited him to Quinn's introduction if he had him near the top of his trade list.
 
silverfish said:
Plug Chytil and Andersson getting that Hayes usage after we trade him right into my veins. Watch HFNYR's reaction to what their stats look like if that happens.

Just. You. Watch.

E4b6mOH.png


I know I'm kind of being a hater about all this Hayes spec, but I believe it is very poor asset management all around to trade him in the hopes that Andersson or Chytil replace him.

We'd need to insulate the **** out of them at 2C with wingers that we do not have. It's just... I don't know. Doesn't seem like a good idea to me, but wtf do I know.
Click to expand...
It’s my freaking nightmare. We were so piss poor down the middle last year and it had negative impacts throughout our entire lineup. Trading Hayes would be throwing our kids into the fire, unless we do something dumb like signing Bozak or Filpp
 
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Mac n Gs said:
It’s my freaking nightmare. We were so piss poor down the middle last year and it had negative impacts throughout our entire lineup. Trading Hayes would be throwing our kids into the fire, unless we do something dumb like signing Bozak or Filpp
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It makes no sense.

Some people are like "oh let's trade Hayes and then just sign one of these guys"

So you don't want to pay Hayes, but want to shell out for an older, probably worse guy for the same amount of money?
 
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Harbour Dog said:
Not unless you want to get somebody who is capable of replacing him. Then it becomes a great concern.
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I don't think the Rangers are concerned about that. If this is supposed to be a rebuilding season, Chytil and Andersson will have the opportunity to play 2nd and 3rd line minutes, and if they struggle the team will live through the growing pains. It's also possible they bring in a Filppula or someone just in case those guys have to be sent down, but that's not a capable replacement for Hayes anyhow.
 
Oscar Lindberg said:
It makes no sense.

Some people are like "oh let's trade Hayes and then just sign one of these guys"

So you don't want to pay Hayes, but want to shell out for an older, probably worse guy for the same amount of money?
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It’s about it a long term commitment, so it’s not the same money.
 
Machinehead said:
I can get on board with trading Hayes if it brings back a legit high-end defenseman.

If we're trading a 25YO player for "hurr reebold" then just ****ing shoot me.
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I thought you said that Hayes actually sucks and his numbers make him look better than he is?

Machinehead said:
Disagree.

Who's the last team to win it without a #1 D, aside from the 2017 Penguins who went on a PDO porno?

Possible? Yes. Extremely rare? Hell yes. Ideal way of building a team? Surely not.

Give me Keith/Doughty playing 1000 minutes a game in the playoffs any day over an elite forward.
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If a team won the Stanley Cup with a Brian Dumolin comparable as their #1C, they would be the worst Stanley Cup #1C of all time by far. I remember telling people that the Rangers were not a good pick to win in 2015 because if they did, Derek Stepan would be the worst Stanley Cup winning #1C of all time. Meanwhile, Dumolin and Frantisek Kaberle have both been Stanley Cup #1Ds since the lockout.

You absolutely need a franchise level #1C to win a Stanley Cup. You can play moneypuck with a pretty solid defenseman like Niskanen or even Dumolin as your #1D in the playoffs but for that #1C, you absolutely need a franchise caliber superstar.

So, the answer to your question is Carolina in 2006 with Frantisek Kaberle. What is the last team to win a Stanley Cup without a bonafide superstar #1C?
 
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JoeThorntonsRooster said:
I thought you said that Hayes actually sucks and his numbers make him look better than he is?
Click to expand...

Not this past season. He's made huge improvements.



If a team won the Stanley Cup with a Brian Dumolin comparable as their #1C, they would be the worst Stanley Cup #1C of all time by far. I remember telling people that the Rangers were not a good pick to win in 2015 because if they did, Derek Stepan would be the worst Stanley Cup winning #1C of all time. Meanwhile, Dumolin and Frantisek Kaberle have both been Stanley Cup #1Ds since the lockout.

You absolutely need a franchise level #1C to win a Stanley Cup. You can play moneypuck with a pretty solid defenseman like Niskanen or even Dumolin as your #1D in the playoffs but for that #1C, you absolutely need a franchise caliber superstar.

So, the answer to your question is Carolina in 2006 with Frantisek Kaberle. What is the last team to win a Stanley Cup without a bonafide superstar #1C?
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Sure, but AFAIK we weren't really talking about franchise centers, just forwards in general.

I think a 1C and a 1D are both necessary to win, unless you blow a PDO load like the Canes and Pens did.
 
The kid we drafted at 22 better play in 500 NHL games because trading 26 + 49 to move up four spots displays a complete lack of understanding of value and is a microcosm of why I do not trust this FO at all.

26 + 49 for 22? Are you kidding me? I'm thrilled I didn't see that happen live.
 
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silverfish said:
The kid we drafted at 22 better play in 500 NHL games because trading 26 + 49 to move up four spots displays a complete lack of understanding of value and is a microcosm of why I do not trust this FO at all.

26 + 49 for 22? Are you kidding me? I'm thrilled I didn't see that happen live.
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Worst part of the 1st round for me. Just a total overpayment.
 
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