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The Advanced Stats Thread Episode VII: An Ode to the Sanity of Silverfish

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silverfish said:
The use case here is prob to just plot one team on each side with just remembering you'll need to mirror in period 2. Makes more sense to do it that way so you have all three periods and can view the whole game rather than two periods on one side and one period on the other.
Click to expand...
In that case...

"hold down _____ and click to denote a shot in the color _____"

That way, you can separate the shots by periods easily!
 
silverfish said:
But then you'll have two different teams shots on the same side of the ice? Doesn't really make sense to me but perhaps I'm misunderstanding.
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Let's just say you're doing one team. You have the chart in front of you.

Hold down 'A' and click for shots you want to denote as "Period 1 shots"

Hold down 'S' and click for shots you want to denote as "Period 2 shots"

Hold down...blah blah blah

Oh oh oh. And then...have it be two layers on the plot. One layer for Team A and one layer for Team B, and then add in the one color for each period, but make it three different colors per team.

And then give the option to view shots based on team or period.

Annnnnnnnnnnnnnnnd I'vc made this more complicated than it needs to be.

:dunno:
 
Been thinking a lot about the 1RD hole we have. It's not that I think Shattenkirk can't do it, but it seems... like a waste, for lack of a better term. Better to let Shattenkirk run wild as the 2RD then have him has the 1RD guy. The only other person in the organization I trust in that role is Smith, and you know how much LOL posting a taek like that would get if I posted it.

So... How do we find the undervalued? I've been doing some very brief looking around, and for all the shit I've given him through no fault of his own, is Petrovic. Him and Weegar, actually. They got fed really "soft usage" though, but they crushed it. I'm not sure if we have a good way of estimating how a player will advance when their usage takes a jump... I'm not sure if we'll ever really have that. Could utilize dCorsi and things such as that to see if they truly crushed their expected in terms of evaluating whether or not they can be tested for a harder usage, but that's really it.

Really not sure how the D shapes up next year. Especially with Staal still here. Gonna waste Shattenkirk on the 2nd pair carrying Staal around? HFNYR would have a conniption if it was Gilmour on the 2nd pairing with Shattenkirk and Staal on the third pairing with Pionk, but those are probably the right pairings as the organization is shaped right now, assuming none of the kids explode in camp and refuse to let the team cut them.

Skjei - Smith
Gilmour - Shattenkirk
Staal - Pionk

Looks so much better if we acquire a true 1RD

Skjei -
Smith - Shattenkirk
Gilmour - Pionk
 
silverfish said:
Been thinking a lot about the 1RD hole we have. It's not that I think Shattenkirk can't do it, but it seems... like a waste, for lack of a better term. Better to let Shattenkirk run wild as the 2RD then have him has the 1RD guy. The only other person in the organization I trust in that role is Smith, and you know how much LOL posting a taek like that would get if I posted it.

So... How do we find the undervalued? I've been doing some very brief looking around, and for all the **** I've given him through no fault of his own, is Petrovic. Him and Weegar, actually. They got fed really "soft usage" though, but they crushed it. I'm not sure if we have a good way of estimating how a player will advance when their usage takes a jump... I'm not sure if we'll ever really have that. Could utilize dCorsi and things such as that to see if they truly crushed their expected in terms of evaluating whether or not they can be tested for a harder usage, but that's really it.

Really not sure how the D shapes up next year. Especially with Staal still here. Gonna waste Shattenkirk on the 2nd pair carrying Staal around? HFNYR would have a conniption if it was Gilmour on the 2nd pairing with Shattenkirk and Staal on the third pairing with Pionk, but those are probably the right pairings as the organization is shaped right now, assuming none of the kids explode in camp and refuse to let the team cut them.

Skjei - Smith
Gilmour - Shattenkirk
Staal - Pionk

Looks so much better if we acquire a true 1RD

Skjei -
Smith - Shattenkirk
Gilmour - Pionk
Click to expand...
I have to imagine DeAngelo is going to play this season. He has too much talent and even though the Stepan trade is a sunk cost, I'm sure the Rangers would like to get something out of 1 of the 2 pieces they got for him and Raanta. I think the defense will be Skjei-Shattenkirk, Staal-Pionk, Smith-DeAngelo barring trades of Staal or Smith.
 
Is there a better compilation of transition defense stats? I think we should start adding those into analyses when we look at players, even if it’s a roughly SSS of games
 
DanielBrassard said:
BTW, I just saw this:

How is it possible that Jack Johnson gets that type of contract?
Click to expand...

I think it’s a mix of the Canadiens being terrible talent evaluators and Johnson being one of those players that’s reputation is way higher than his results (ex: Backes, Lucic, Alzner, Girardi, etc)
 
GeorgeKaplan said:
I think it’s a mix of the Canadiens being terrible talent evaluators and Johnson being one of those players that’s reputation is way higher than his results (ex: Backes, Lucic, Alzner, Girardi, etc)
Click to expand...
It's not just the Canadiens who are interested in him, which is the sad part. I would definitely agree with your second sentence, that's obviously true. But there are better defenseman like De Haan and Kempny who are probably not going to be anywhere close to that salary.

Honestly wouldn't mind the Rangers going after Kempny.
 
silverfish said:
Been thinking a lot about the 1RD hole we have. It's not that I think Shattenkirk can't do it, but it seems... like a waste, for lack of a better term. Better to let Shattenkirk run wild as the 2RD then have him has the 1RD guy. The only other person in the organization I trust in that role is Smith, and you know how much LOL posting a taek like that would get if I posted it.

So... How do we find the undervalued? I've been doing some very brief looking around, and for all the **** I've given him through no fault of his own, is Petrovic. Him and Weegar, actually. They got fed really "soft usage" though, but they crushed it. I'm not sure if we have a good way of estimating how a player will advance when their usage takes a jump... I'm not sure if we'll ever really have that. Could utilize dCorsi and things such as that to see if they truly crushed their expected in terms of evaluating whether or not they can be tested for a harder usage, but that's really it.

Really not sure how the D shapes up next year. Especially with Staal still here. Gonna waste Shattenkirk on the 2nd pair carrying Staal around? HFNYR would have a conniption if it was Gilmour on the 2nd pairing with Shattenkirk and Staal on the third pairing with Pionk, but those are probably the right pairings as the organization is shaped right now, assuming none of the kids explode in camp and refuse to let the team cut them.

Skjei - Smith
Gilmour - Shattenkirk
Staal - Pionk

Looks so much better if we acquire a true 1RD

Skjei -
Smith - Shattenkirk
Gilmour - Pionk
Click to expand...

The obvious answer for 1D is...

Pionk

:cool:
 
DanielBrassard said:
I have to imagine DeAngelo is going to play this season. He has too much talent and even though the Stepan trade is a sunk cost, I'm sure the Rangers would like to get something out of 1 of the 2 pieces they got for him and Raanta. I think the defense will be Skjei-Shattenkirk, Staal-Pionk, Smith-DeAngelo barring trades of Staal or Smith.
Click to expand...

I have no confidence in ADA making the roster in October, and suspect he'll be out of the organization by January.

jas said:
The obvious answer for 1D is...

Pionk

:cool:
Click to expand...

Wouldn't surprise me.
 
silverfish said:
I have no confidence in ADA making the roster in October, and suspect he'll be out of the organization by January.



Wouldn't surprise me.
Click to expand...
Why though regarding ADA? He played some really good hockey in his second stint and got super unlucky with his injury.

Which RD do we have that’ll supercede him in getting a top-6 spot? Kampfer? He’s our best bet at having a sustained PP qb and offense-oriented dman for the future
 
Mac n Gs said:
Why though regarding ADA? He played some really good hockey in his second stint and got super unlucky with his injury.

Which RD do we have that’ll supercede him in getting a top-6 spot? Kampfer? He’s our best bet at having a sustained PP qb and offense-oriented dman for the future
Click to expand...
I don't know, gut feeling. Could see it both ways with Quinn having enough patience or not having enough patience as his first NHL gig. But if we're including Smith as a RD, then Smith.
 
silverfish said:
I don't know, gut feeling. Could see it both ways with Quinn having enough patience or not having enough patience as his first NHL gig. But if we're including Smith as a RD, then Smith.
Click to expand...
I’d argue that the odds are higher that Smith never wears a Rangers uniform again compared to Deangelo.

Quinn has a track record for patience with things like this and it can be seen in how he handled Shattenkirk in the AHL. It does seem like our younger guys will be given more leeway to grow and develop in these upcoming years. The mistakes may drive us nuts, but that’s how they’ll learn and get better.

Regarding Petrovic or Weegar, Weegar has had steadily improving numbers on a yearly basis. I’d buy on him over Petrovic
 
Mac n Gs said:
I’d argue that the odds are higher that Smith never wears a Rangers uniform again compared to Deangelo.
Click to expand...
Probably a good bet.

Mac n Gs said:
Quinn has a track record for patience with things like this and it can be seen in how he handled Shattenkirk in the AHL. It does seem like our younger guys will be given more leeway to grow and develop in these upcoming years. The mistakes may drive us nuts, but that’s how they’ll learn and get better.

Regarding Petrovic or Weegar, Weegar has had steadily improving numbers on a yearly basis. I’d buy on him over Petrovic
Click to expand...
I don't know, man. On the surface, I should be ADA's biggest supporter. Good underlying numbers. Lots of skill. Some weird behavior on the ice (and off, but whatever), but he still gets his job done. Why don't I like him?

I don't know. Probably because the Stepan trade was dumb as f***.
 
silverfish said:
Probably a good bet.


I don't know, man. On the surface, I should be ADA's biggest supporter. Good underlying numbers. Lots of skill. Some weird behavior on the ice (and off, but whatever), but he still gets his job done. Why don't I like him?

I don't know. Probably because the Stepan trade was dumb as ****.
Click to expand...
Sigh, I’ve come to terms with it in regards of rooting for Lias and ADA, but I’m still bitter about losing Stepan. Yes the trade was stupid, but if those kids pan out it’ll be worth it in the long-run, IMO. I don’t want to turn this into a trade evaluation topic because we’ve gone over that in the past and we’ve both kinda just agreed to disagree.
 
Mac n Gs said:
Sigh, I’ve come to terms with it in regards of rooting for Lias and ADA, but I’m still bitter about losing Stepan. Yes the trade was stupid, but if those kids pan out it’ll be worth it in the long-run, IMO. I don’t want to turn this into a trade evaluation topic because we’ve gone over that in the past and we’ve both kinda just agreed to disagree.
Click to expand...
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Running down the list of players who have good relTxGA60 metrics, shoot right handed, are maybe available, and can maybe handle 1RD duties. inb4 @LiasAndersson thinks this post is me listing "elite" d-men.

Dougie
Petry (probably not available, but hey, Bergevin)
Pysyk (probably not available)
Pateryn
Murphy
Dotchin (probably not available)
Tanev

Not a pretty list based off of this criteria, at least.

Actually... maybe Dotchin is available? That'd be a good get, I think. Someone remind me to run the tool on him when I get home. On further analysis, he may be a product of Hedman.

Michael Stone
Mark Fayne
Derek Joslin (who)
Olli Maata
Patrik Nemeth
 
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