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The Advanced Stats Thread Episode VII: An Ode to the Sanity of Silverfish

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silverfish said:
Absolutely inexcusable.

25 going for 29 and 76 is a slap in the face I hope this FO learned a lot from.
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I doubt they even noticed to be honest. Supposedly Miller was going to be Toronto's pick, but it's still extremely frustrating to see them give up so much value for a late 1st round prospect. Insane.
 
silverfish said:
The kid we drafted at 22 better play in 500 NHL games because trading 26 + 49 to move up four spots displays a complete lack of understanding of value and is a microcosm of why I do not trust this FO at all.

26 + 49 for 22? Are you kidding me? I'm thrilled I didn't see that happen live.
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Not sure if this makes you fell better but this was posted in the Miller thread


 
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I like Miller a lot. But overpaying to trade up to pick him, when he was likely available at 26 anyways seems stupid. If he ended up going before that, someone else good would have been available. Only way this makes sense is if the scouting staff thought he was way better than everyone else. We will see. It seems like they fixate on certain players, and either reach or overpay to trade up to take them. This only works if their scouts are truly better than everyone else's.
 
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I think a team should just dissolve it's entire amateur scouting department and pick simply based on the consensus. It's pretty arrogant to think your draft board is the optimal one if the consensus of other scouts is different. Just average the rankings of a bunch of different sources and call it a day. Could save yourself millions on scouting.
 
SA16 said:
I think a team should just dissolve it's entire amateur scouting department and pick simply based on the consensus. It's pretty arrogant to think your draft board is the optimal one if the consensus of other scouts is different. Just average the rankings of a bunch of different sources and call it a day. Could save yourself millions on scouting.
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It is uncanny how they have to go away from the consensus with most picks. Seems like it's worked out with Chytil, remains to be seen on Andersson and Kravtsov obviously. I would have been perfectly fine with picking Kravtsov if Wahlstrom wasn't there to be honest. But what can ya do
 
But really what is the point of an amateur scouting department? You have all sorts of prospect people being paid by different sources to scout and report them. TSN has guys, The Athletic, Sportsnet, Central Scouting etc. Why pay so much money for your own guys to do the exact same thing that you can get for free? All you're going to end up doing is biasing it towards players you like when talking to them or players that happened to have a big game when you saw them. It's not like it was in the past when Europe and the like was heavily underscouted. Seems entirely unnecessary.

And the Rangers can't even say they have a history of going off the board and having it work out for them because how many big time offensive prospects have they found in recent years? There are zero. Chytil, maybe, but I do think later picks are a bit different because the consensus varies wildly from person to person there and it's largely considered a toss up in that tier. But their last 3 early first round picks have all been relatively off the board guys (Kravtsov/Andersson/McIlrath)
 
SA16 said:
But really what is the point of an amateur scouting department? You have all sorts of prospect people being paid by different sources to scout and report them. TSN has guys, The Athletic, Sportsnet, Central Scouting etc. Why pay so much money for your own guys to do the exact same thing that you can get for free? All you're going to end up doing is biasing it towards players you like when talking to them or players that happened to have a big game when you saw them. It's not like it was in the past when Europe and the like was heavily underscouted. Seems entirely unnecessary. And the Rangers can't even say they have a history of going off the board and having it work out for them because how many big time offensive prospects have they found? There are zero.
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Is it not telling that the network scouts don’t have NHL jobs though?
 
SA16 said:
Not really. Professional scouting isn't a great job and I'm sure a lot of them don't want it. Unless you're right at the top it's not particularly high paying or anything
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Well, Button who’s an ex-gm has notoriously terrible draft lists because he mostly just watches international tournaments. Pronmans are always out of left field because he values puck skills way more than anything else. TSN’s board and panel had wildly different rankings than McKenzie’s 10 scout averaged rankings. This year in particular seems like there’s a huge difference in how people sort out players in the 20-50ish range. Teams have scouts so they can have them focus on areas/leagues and have them watching these kids more than once or twice a month, and then they all get together and compile and debate what they do from there.
 
GeorgeKaplan said:
Well, Button who’s an ex-gm has notoriously terrible draft lists because he mostly just watches international tournaments. Pronmans are always out of left field because he values puck skills way more than anything else. TSN’s board and panel had wildly different rankings than McKenzie’s 10 scout averaged rankings. This year in particular seems like there’s a huge difference in how people sort out players in the 20-50ish range. Teams have scouts so they can have them focus on areas/leagues and have them watching these kids more than once or twice a month, and then they all get together and compile and debate what they do from there.
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And that is why you take the consensus and average them rather than relying on any one person or department in particular.

I can see a reason for having scouts in remote areas that nobody else is scouting (like a Japan/China/Korea type thing) but for USA/CAN/most of Europe? Everyone is already checking those guys out there are no secrets.
 
silverfish how to draft 101:

Compile all draft eligible prospect stats.
Use some simple statistical method to level the playing field across leagues
Sort by shots on goal per game
Sort by goals
Draft player

Bada bing, bada boom.
 
SA16 said:
And that is why you take the consensus and average them rather than relying on any one person or department in particular.

I can see a reason for having scouts in remote areas that nobody else is scouting (like a Japan/China/Korea type thing) but for USA/CAN/most of Europe? Everyone is already checking those guys out there are no secrets.
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These guys follow these kids for a few years, last year Friedman reported that the Rangers has been following Chytil since he was 14/15. If any of these scouts like a guy, they get other people to get some eyes on them. The consensus could be a decent way to sketch out ranges for where players are going to go, but teams scouts get way more specifics about these kids.

In the case of Kravtsov, they definitely did a lot of homework on him, Gordie and Drury both went over to watch him play a bunch even before his playoffs. The playoffs are what had him rise later in the year, but playing 9 minutes a night in a checking role on a non-powerhouse KHL team isn’t exactly the best way for a prospect to get noticed, but during the Olympics when he played in the VHL, he dominated. He doesn’t have Wahlstrom’s numbers, but he’s absolutely in the same tier with Wahlstrom and he’s an even more well rounded offensive player.
 
GeorgeKaplan said:
These guys follow these kids for a few years, last year Friedman reported that the Rangers has been following Chytil since he was 14/15. If any of these scouts like a guy, they get other people to get some eyes on them. The consensus could be a decent way to sketch out ranges for where players are going to go, but teams scouts get way more specifics about these kids.

In the case of Kravtsov, they definitely did a lot of homework on him, Gordie and Drury both went over to watch him play a bunch even before his playoffs. The playoffs are what had him rise later in the year, but playing 9 minutes a night in a checking role on a non-powerhouse KHL team isn’t exactly the best way for a prospect to get noticed, but during the Olympics when he played in the VHL, he dominated. He doesn’t have Wahlstrom’s numbers, but he’s absolutely in the same tier with Wahlstrom and he’s an even more well rounded offensive player.
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But he doesn't have Wahlstrom's numbers. This team avoids raw production like the plague and drafts what could be and what might be.

Then we sit there and wonder why nobody on our team can ever break 65 points.
 
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I see a ton of people think Carolina got bent in that trade. Dougie Hamilton remains criminally underrated because we can't get over the hump that "offensive defensemen" can also be good at defense.

Strangely enough, bad at defense Dougie Hamilton outperforms excellent two-way D-man Noah Hanifin in every defensive metric there is. The strangest!

Carolina destroyed Calgary in this deal.
 
Phnxldr said:
I think the rangers are suffering from Not Invented Here Syndrome.
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Holy shit this describes my current job perfectly.

How much did recency bias play a factor in the Kravtsov pick? Yeah he had a great playoffs, but we're talking about a 16 game sample size here.

I think I like the player I just don't like the pick. Similar to the Miller pick. I like the player I just don't like how the pick was obtained. And then taking our only remaining 2nd rounder and drafting a goalie is one of the more laughable things that I can remember this organization doing.

Even if you think a goalie is BPA you don't take him that high.
 
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