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The Advanced Stats Thread Episode VII: An Ode to the Sanity of Silverfish

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silverfish said:
Holy **** this describes my current job perfectly.

How much did recency bias play a factor in the Kravtsov pick? Yeah he had a great playoffs, but we're talking about a 16 game sample size here.

I think I like the player I just don't like the pick. Similar to the Miller pick. I like the player I just don't like how the pick was obtained. And then taking our only remaining 2nd rounder and drafting a goalie is one of the more laughable things that I can remember this organization doing.

Even if you think a goalie is BPA you don't take him that high.
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Some important context on Kravtsovs production, he was in a very limited role through the regular season got bumped up just Before playoffs and then just excelled in a top 6 role in the playoffs. His production spike was driven by more TOI and better QoT (and to some extent SH% ofc), that makes me feel better about it.

The numbers are in here somewhere Blueshirt Banter 2018 NHL Draft Rankings - #14 Vitali Kravtsov
 
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silverfish said:
Holy **** this describes my current job perfectly.

How much did recency bias play a factor in the Kravtsov pick? Yeah he had a great playoffs, but we're talking about a 16 game sample size here.

I think I like the player I just don't like the pick. Similar to the Miller pick. I like the player I just don't like how the pick was obtained. And then taking our only remaining 2nd rounder and drafting a goalie is one of the more laughable things that I can remember this organization doing.

Even if you think a goalie is BPA you don't take him that high.
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Pretty much agree with all of this.
 
Look at this quote from Brooks latest
The critical decision confronting general manager Jeff Gorton is not choosing Kevin Hayes or Vlad Namestnikov to sign to a contract extension, it is whether to trade Hayes or Mika Zibanejad.
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The thought process the management of this team has is so infuriating. Why are they allergic to retaining young talent?

I get it, you want Chytil to win a top 6 spot, but what if he doesn't? The argument is "well, they're rebuilding, so it doesn't matter if Chytil isn't ready."

But why not just keep both guys and see what happens? Even if they sign Hayes to a 5 million per deal, you're telling me they can't trade him in a year or two when Chytil/Andersson/Howden are ready?

It's not like they're hemorrhaging cap space and can't sign him. The picks they made this weekend very clearly show this is a rebuild, not a retool. Half of the guys they took are reaches and projects, and they're just throwing stuff at the wall hoping one or two stick.

I like Gorton but this "it's one or the other with our good players" is so stupid

silverfish said:
Even if you think a goalie is BPA you don't take him that high.
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Unless you're the Rangers. If you're their guy, they take you no matter what

Another thing I don't get.

I'd love to hear what type of scouting data they had that told them their BPA at pick 39 was a goalie who wasn't even projected as the best of the draft, and could have easily been taken in the 4th.

Makes it even worse when they moved the second round pick.

Which, that latest video they put on the team twitter account, Gorton said they were offering Ottawa the 28th and 48th for 22nd. What the hell made them instead offer 26? You're telling me one of the worst (if not the worst) GM in the league managed to make you add the better pick?

Just underwhelming things all around
 
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I do understand why they might feel the need to trade Hayes or Zibanejad if they want Chytil and Andersson to play center and don't really care about winning or losing games if they aren't quite ready. It might be easier for them just to trade Hayes for example right now before having to deal with his RFA status, and maybe he doesn't have a good season and at 5M it might be tougher to get quality value back. I kind of wish they wouldn't though, I don't think this team is that far away from being good, although that would take Chytil/Andersson becoming good players up front, and Pionk and ADA being decent on the back end. Add in a numerous amount of cap room, some decent trade bait in Namestnikov, Spooner, Vesey, Zucc and it could turn around pretty fast.
 
same as before the draft, i'm only moving hayes if I'm getting back a top pair RHD that we badly need....otherwise talk to me when anderson or howden show they can be the #3 center. that hopefully happens eventually but it hasn't happened yet

and i'm not moving zibanejad unless someone is giving us a legit #1 center....right now the long term plans are based on zib & chytil being the top 2 centers
 
Leetch3 said:
same as before the draft, i'm only moving hayes if I'm getting back a top pair RHD that we badly need....otherwise talk to me when anderson or howden show they can be the #3 center. that hopefully happens eventually but it hasn't happened yet

and i'm not moving zibanejad unless someone is giving us a legit #1 center....right now the long term plans are based on zib & chytil being the top 2 centers
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I don't know that Hayes value is high enough around the NHL to return a top pairing D as much as we all like him. We would probably have to add. Similar to what Carolina did for Hamilton. Like Skjei+Hayes for Trouba or something similar.
 
DanielBrassard said:
I don't know that Hayes value is high enough around the NHL to return a top pairing D as much as we all like him. We would probably have to add. Similar to what Carolina did for Hamilton. Like Skjei+Hayes for Trouba or something similar.
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probably not straight up...it would be as a part of a package. unless you are getting a younger player with first pair potential and taking the gamble that he will develop

but with all our top young dmen being LHD, its not crazy to think of packaging hayes with one of them to land that top pair RHD.
 
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Yankees: sign players when they already have too many players.

Rangers: strict limit of two good players per position per roster.

There's one difference.
 
Piggybacking on the discussion from the last page about drafting the 'consensus' player at each pick; I've long intrigued by whether clubs having their own scouting department is 'worth' it and whether they'd be better off looking to outsource most of it.

With each team having it's own list, and there being multiple publicly available list to buy (THN, Button, HP, FC etc) how would you determine the 'consensus' is from this lot? Obviously you are unlikely to get your hands on another teams list, but if you were to go with what's available, how many would you use in order to make your final list, would you just take the mean, what would you do about outliers (ie one publication has someone at 30, everyone else has that player top 10) and would you give weighting to certain publications?
 
Irishguy42 said:
As opposed to, say, taking on Mason from the Jets?
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Certainly not opposed to clever solutions that involve eating bad contracts and gaining value that way but this is also the team that drafts a goalie at 39OA so I have my doubts they're on top of this.

BTW, could anyone tell if Jim Sullivan was at the draft table this weekend? As far as I could see, he was not, but can't confirm. If he was, he should probably be fired.
 
If the Rangers aren't going to take advantage of all the cap room they have and take on bad contracts for assets I will be upset. Should take on as many unwanted contracts as possible as long as they are not long term.
 
DanielBrassard said:
If the Rangers aren't going to take advantage of all the cap room they have and take on bad contracts for assets I will be upset. Should take on as many unwanted contracts as possible as long as they are not long term.
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Can't take on vets have to muh rebuild.

Chytil 1C, Lias 2c. Trade Hayes AND Zib, why just one?
 
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So Brassard, Stepan, and now one of Zib/Hayes. The other probably goes next year. This franchise thinks top 6 centers grow on trees all of a sudden.

We pine for the days of 1C Erik Christensen.
 
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Dactyl said:
So Brassard, Stepan, and now one of Zib/Hayes. The other probably goes next year. This franchise thinks top 6 centers grow on trees all of a sudden.

We pine for the days of 1C Erik Christensen.
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I'm beginning to think Gorton posts here as RangerBoy
 
Machinehead said:
Can't take on vets have to muh rebuild.

Chytil 1C, Lias 2c. Trade Hayes AND Zib, why just one?
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Well the vets would be cap dumps, so in my world that doesn't have an impact on who plays, they either sit in the press box or in the AHL/LTIR.

As far as trading Hayes or Zib, i'm with you guys that it seems like an overreaction by the Rangers FO insofar as we need to trade a top-6 center so Chytil and Andersson get their ice time. But if the team truly doesn't give a shit about winning this season, and it seems like they don't, it might just be the best thing to do. Obtain more assets, helps tank in the draft.
 
East Coast Bias said:
If not elite, you must burn.

Trade everyone. Get picks. Trade picks. Get non elite. Trade non elite in search of elite.
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Then use those picks to draft players who have never produced huge numbers and wonder why nobody on your team is elite /kermit.gif
 
I also want to say that I would be in favor of trading for Panarin and locking him if possible, but it doesn't seem to be of interest to the Rangers.
 
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