GDT: TB @ Car

[tarheelhockey]

I don't have stats to back this up, but this seems to happen far too often to be chalked up to mere puck luck.

Again, just look at the roster. Of course they fail to score on a "more than just puck luck" basis. It's because they're a below average offensive group. We have one forward who would clearly be on the top line of a good offensive team. We have, what, maybe 2 or 3 forwards who would clearly be in the top 6 of a good offensive team? Until Aho or Lindholm or Turbo or Rask takes another step, we flat out don't have the horses.

The coach can only gameplan around this just so much. Trying to keep pace with a great offensive team would just be playing to their strength and our weakness.

 

[Roboturner913]

Him and Faulk as a pair are a disaster.

I said this after the Dallas game. Hanifin-Faulk just does not work. They're too similar, with the same weaknesses, and you're wasting the best part of Faulk's game (offense) by having him out there trying to cover for Hanifin's mistakes, which defensively speaking, he's not good enough to do anyway.

 

[tarheelhockey]

FWIW, it was Pesce and Hanifin who left Kucherov wide open after Slavin had thrown a blanket over him all night. Hanifin lost a step to Stamkos going behind the net, and Pesce inexplicably stepped up to double-team him behind the net with 4 seconds left in the game, rather than covering the league's leading goal scorer at the top of the crease.

Part of it is... you've got a 20 year old defenseman in the lineup. He's a great athlete, but he's a 20 year old defenseman. No matter who you put out there as his partner, that guy is going to be covering for a 20 year old defenseman.

 

[Navin R Slavin]

I don't have stats to back this up, but this seems to happen far too often to be chalked up to mere puck luck.

Oh, that may very well be. We continue to lack finishers, and adding a 36-year-old Justin Williams wasn't much of an answer there. But you still have to put together the best plan for your team to win on any given night. I think the plan against TB was the right one.

Over the course of the season, this team will need to get 6-8 more points than last year. That can happen in a lot of ways: games going to OT that wouldn't have gone to OT last year, and winning games in OT/shootouts that we wouldn't have won last year being two of the big ones.

Last year we were 2-3-2 after 7 games. This year we're 3-3-1. A point better. Be a point better every seven games over last year and we're in the playoffs.

 

[Roboturner913]

And that's not the first time Pesce has been out of position this season and a goal was scored as a result. Not sure what's going on with him, but he's making mistakes that he hasn't made since his first 10 games or so his rookie season.

But all this is nit-picking really since defense is far from the main issue I suppose.

 

[Joe McGrath]

Perhaps if we think Hainsey-Faulk was a disaster (it was), Slavin-Faulk was a disaster (eh, probably), and Hanifin-Faulk is a disaster (not convinced yet), maybe the problem isn’t with the guy on the left side?

 

[vorbis]

for those saying the Canes were "a crossbar away" that's sort of true, but they were also a post or two away from taking an early lead at around the 8 minute mark in the 1st. might have completely changed the complexion of the game.

 

[tarheelhockey]

Last year we were 2-3-2 after 7 games. This year we're 3-3-1. A point better. Be a point better every seven games over last year and we're in the playoffs.

To put this into sharper relief:

Last season after 7 games: 21 GF, 26 GA = -5 differential
This season after 7 games: 16 GF, 19 GA = -3 differential
* excluding ENGs

It's not a ton of progress, but it's progress, and cutting out 7 GA in 7 games is a pretty huge difference.

 

[tarheelhockey]

Perhaps if we think Hainsey-Faulk was a disaster (it was), Slavin-Faulk was a disaster (eh, probably), and Hanifin-Faulk is a disaster (not convinced yet), maybe the problem isn’t with the guy on the left side?

That's a fair way to look at it, but Faulk doesn't seem like a problem partner to me. IMO it's more a matter of, Hainsey doesn't need to be skating Faulk-like minutes and Hanifin simply is what he is, a very young and raw player who makes occasional mistakes and needs to babysat (which Faulk is ill-suited for doing).

The only real question mark on that list is why Slavin-Faulk didn't look so great.

 

[MinJaBen]

what was the announced attendance yesterday?

10498

5 digits! we did it!

I think we found our new use for the "most liked list" avatars....

 

[Finlandia WOAT]

Again, just look at the roster. Of course they fail to score on a "more than just puck luck" basis. It's because they're a below average offensive group. We have one forward who would clearly be on the top line of a good offensive team. We have, what, maybe 2 or 3 forwards who would clearly be in the top 6 of a good offensive team? Until Aho or Lindholm or Turbo or Rask takes another step, we flat out don't have the horses.

It's almost like I wrote a post on the last page saying exactly that....

I'm wondering whether or not what they have is really suited to trying to grind out goals in the offensive zone. They don't have big bodies, nor guys who are excellent cyclers, nor do they have guys that can win in isolation when the cycle creates those matchups, but they do have guys who are quick and defensemen who are good at picking apart the opposing defense in transition. If you want to say this was the gameplan against a superior team, fine, but grind-it-out hockey isn't a one off instance, it's Peters' specialty.

But yes, at the end of the day it's a case of turd polishing one big turd of an offense.

Oh, that may very well be. We continue to lack finishers, and adding a 36-year-old Justin Williams wasn't much of an answer there. But you still have to put together the best plan for your team to win on any given night. I think the plan against TB was the right one.
.

I see what you're saying.

FWIW, it was Pesce and Hanifin who left Kucherov wide open after Slavin had thrown a blanket over him all night. Hanifin lost a step to Stamkos going behind the net, and Pesce inexplicably stepped up to double-team him behind the net with 4 seconds left in the game, rather than covering the league's leading goal scorer at the top of the crease.

FWIW, I don't see the point in scrutinizing the final goal in a blowout after the losing team gave up.

They gave up a PP goal against an excellent PP team, and a goal after the League leading scorer/1st line center of the opposition was out on the ice against our third pairing because God knows why (as in, I really don't know why, not that anyone in particular screwed up).

I think we found our new use for the "most liked list" avatars....

Mats Sundin Overated

 

[Roboturner913]

Slavin-Faulk looked good when they did it last year. This year it maybe doesn't work so well, for some reason.

 

[Big Daddy Cane]

EVGA Goal Scorer	Special Situation?	Defensive Pairing
Stewart		Hanifin - Pesce
Staal		Hanifin - van Riemsdyk
Koivu	6v5	Slavin - Faulk
Milano		Hanifin - Faulk
Milano	OT	Faulk
Little		Dahlbeck - Slavin
Ehlers		Fleury - Dahlbeck
Lucic		Hanifin - Faulk
Monahan		van Riemsdyk - Pesce
Benn		van Riemsdyk - Pesce
Pitlick		Slavin - Pesce
Seguin		Faulk
Pitlick		Hanifin - Faulk
Sergachev		Fleury - van Riemsdyk
Namestnikov	EN	Hanifin - Faulk
Callahan	EN	Faulk
Kucherov	Hanifin - Pesce

[TBODY] Defensive Pairing Hanifin - PesceHanifin - van RiemsdykSlavin - Faulk
Hanifin - FaulkFaulk
Dahlbeck - SlavinFleury - Dahlbeck
Hanifin - Faulk
van Riemsdyk - Pesce
van Riemsdyk - PesceSlavin - PesceFaulkHanifin - Faulk
Fleury - van RiemsdykHanifin - FaulkFaulkHanifin - Pesce [/TBODY]

Hanifin - Faulk, the pairing, will be on ice for GA, but if they can keep it to 1 non-EN every other game, you take that, particularly when Slavin -Pesce is such a beast pairing defensively.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

We are focused on the defensive pairings, but the bigger problem is we have scored 1 or 2 goals in 4 of our 7 games. This isn't because the defensemen can't move the puck either, it's because our forwards can't score (outside of Skinner) right now. You can't really even grind out a game like Hank suggests scoring 1 goal, at least not very often.

 

[WreckingCrew]

To put this into sharper relief:

Last season after 7 games: 21 GF, 26 GA = -5 differential
This season after 7 games: 16 GF, 19 GA = -3 differential
* excluding ENGs

It's not a ton of progress, but it's progress, and cutting out 7 GA in 7 games is a pretty huge difference.

That being said, we also cut out 5 GF, which almost negated it (that 2 goal differential is probably why we're 3-3-1 instead of 2-3-2)...imagine if we were at 21 GF - 19 GA

I know it's early, but I just don't get this team...they SHOULD be better than last year, but so far they're just not IMO. Sometimes they show just great chemistry and things are clicking and it's beautiful, then a few minutes later they look like they don't know how to hockey at all. I like Peters and all, and I think he's a solid coach, but I think we're getting to that point now where he's really gotta help the team make something happen...

 

[Unsustainable]

Maybe try:

Slavin - Pesce
Fluery - Faulk
Hanifin - TVR?

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

So removing OT, ENG and 6-5, if my numbers are correct, ES Goals against:

	GA	EV TOI	GA/EV TOI
Hanifin	6	104.5	.057
Pesce	5	136.3	.037
Faulk	4	123.3	.032
TVR	4	50.4	.079
Fleury	2	87	.023
Slavin	2	143.5	.014

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

GA numbers are too small for any valid statistical comparison, but the numbers do kind of match what our eyes have seen.

 

[tarheelhockey]

It's almost like I wrote a post on the last page saying exactly that....

I'm wondering whether or not what they have is really suited to trying to grind out goals in the offensive zone. They don't have big bodies, nor guys who are excellent cyclers, nor do they have guys that can win in isolation when the cycle creates those matchups, but they do have guys who are quick and defensemen who are good at picking apart the opposing defense in transition. If you want to say this was the gameplan against a superior team, fine, but grind-it-out hockey isn't a one off instance, it's Peters' specialty.

But yes, at the end of the day it's a case of turd polishing one big turd of an offense.

So you want a track meet where we pair Jeff Skinner, Teuvo Teravainen, Sebastian Aho against Nikita Kucherov, Steven Stamkos, Tyler Johnson?

How is that better? Again, that’s a way to lose 5-1 WITHOUT empty net goals and WITHOUT pondering whether crossbars can be a meaningful stat.

And yes, this is more than a one-off gameplan because easily 75% of the teams we face can win that track meet against us. We flat out don’t have the forward talent to play that way. Peters probably wishes we did more than anyone, because he has one hell of a tall order trying to get this group over the hump without any significant new scoring talent year-over-year.

FWIW, I don't see the worth in scrutinizing the final goal in a blowout after the losing team gave up.

It’s worth scrutiny because it’s a picture-perfect example of changing Hanifin’s partner only to see the new partner get burned trying to cover for him.

And therefore a picture perfect example of why changing up the pairings isn’t really the solution to Hanifin. The solution is to find him a babysitter and revisit his progress when he’s old enough to book a hotel room legally.

 

[MinJaBen]

Slavin-Faulk looked good when they did it last year. This year it maybe doesn't work so well, for some reason.

Did they? I don't remember it that way. I remember thinking they were easily going to be our first pairing out of the gate last year, but when they were, we struggled. I think I chalked that up to Faulk's injury to start the year. Then most of the year it was Slaving-Pesce and Faulk-Hainsey. After the deadline, then it was mostly Faulk-Haninfin looking good together (or at least better than either of them were with their other partners for the year).

 

[tarheelhockey]

That being said, we also cut out 5 GF, which almost negated it (that 2 goal differential is probably why we're 3-3-1 instead of 2-3-2)...imagine if we were at 21 GF - 19 GA

That’s exactly the issue so far this season. We’ve got a line’s worth of top-6 forwards in deep slumps. Even just an extra goal apiece from each of those guys (which again, goes back to crossbars and the sometimes uncontrollable narrowness of victory in this league) would have us in a much more positive situation.

At the end of the day, jiggering around with the lines or D pairings won’t matter if Aho continues to play like he has the yips, if Rask is skating like he’s trying to digest a Cookout tray, if Lindholm can’t just flat out get a break and put the puck into the actual net. If those guys won’t produce, we can’t make the playoffs, period. Everything else becomes academic at that point.

 

[JCLA]

That’s exactly the issue so far this season. We’ve got a line’s worth of top-6 forwards in deep slumps. Even just an extra goal apiece from each of those guys (which again, goes back to crossbars and the sometimes uncontrollable narrowness of victory in this league) would have us in a much more positive situation.

At the end of the day, jiggering around with the lines or D pairings won’t matter if Aho continues to play like he has the yips, if Rask is skating like he’s trying to digest a Cookout tray, if Lindholm can’t just flat out get a break and put the puck into the actual net. If those guys won’t produce, we can’t make the playoffs, period. Everything else becomes academic at that point.

this. is. perfection.

 

[Navin R Slavin]

The defense is fine. The offense is taking time to get going. They will improve.

 

[MinJaBen]

The defense is fine. The offense is taking time to get going. They will improve.

In March.

 

[Stickpucker]

I like what Lindy is trying to do and the eye test says he's been more physical than the past.

Does anyone know where we can find a shot selection for him?

Looks like he always shoots far blocker side. Would love him to test the glove or 5 hole more often since he usually shoots when the goalie isn't down.

 

[Stickpucker]

I am starting to sour on Peters. Looking at the offense we got out of less talented teams than this with different coaches I'm wondering if he's the right man for the job.