Taylor Hall For Adam Larsson V | 4,000+ Posts and Counting!

[guymez]

There are more ways to run a PP than to depend on a Dman. Krueger and Nelson both managed to have good PP's that weren't all about a D QB. Jersey last year had the 10th best PP with Schlemko being their top point getting D on the PP. They let forwards run the show and did fine.

We have the tools to have a top 10 PP IMO, just a matter of our PP coach being able to think outside the box and make proper use of them.

There were a lot of variables which factored into the PP in past years. I think the continuity of having Kruger and Nelson around the team prior to their head coaching stints helped.
There was better offensive talent on D as well.

I have detailed this in the past but dont care to rehash it all over again. Thats the trouble with trying to support a contrary opinion...you end up having to repeat yourself endlessly with each poster that takes issue wit your position.

As for the NJ power play...how much of a role did Larsson play in that? We both know that the answer to that is zero.

Also keep in mind that as much as everyone in these parts complained about their PP the Oilers were only 0.4% from being in the top 15 in terms of PP%. That is factoring in the injury to McDavid.
So I would suggest that Woodcroft actually did a decent job with the PP despite the fact that the Oilers had the worst group of offensive dmen in the NHL. That team hasn't had a sad sack group of offensively challenged dmen like that for many years previously.
This season wont be much different in that regard. With a player like McDavid this should be a top 10 PP...with a player like Barrie it would be. Thats probably another 5 wins and 10 points in the standings so yeah...its important.

Lets talk again in 5 months and see if Klefbom and Larsson are the primary PP dmen. I am betting that doesnt happen and Chairelli addresses this issue because I see it as a pretty clear issue.

 

[guymez]

There are no guarantees about Larsson offense obviously but I am as sure as can be that he will score at the very least 30 pts if healthy next season.

I don't think it is an outlier really. I think it is at least as representative as this last season of what can be expected from a defenseman who is a great puck mover. Larsson himself said that the turning point in his career came last season and that was where he took a huge step forward. He also said that he was happy with this season in general but not production wise and that he would need to work on that for next year.

Regarding 14/15. What happened that season was that once DeBoer left, Larsson ice time was ramped up from around 16 mins/night on average (and being scratched every second game) to 23 mins/night and he was paired up with Greene (not as buried as in 15/16 but still with toughest competition and most DZ starts on NJD). Before that I remember him playing mostly with Gelinas, and sometimes Helgeson. This change happened more or less over night late December 2014. If you take a look at his stats from that turning point things look interesting. His total points pace becomes 36 pts, with 31 EV pts and 5 SH pts. Actually, not considering pace, he already led the league in SH points that season, but those are so few and far between for any player that I wouldn't consider them really. Anyhow, 31 EV pts in 14/15 would have been good for 10th place in EV scoring. That kind of EV strength production is similar to that of Weber, Pietro, Doughty, Brodie (at least over the last two seasons).

In the end yes, we will see if he manages to produce here. I think all signs point towards that he will lift his weight in terms of production (30+ would be acceptable to me), but then again he is on a new team, a new conference and he is still very young. I could also see a bit of a slump going into the season, but I hope not.

All signs? I dont see that at all.
I would suggest that there was an indication that Larsson could be a better offensive dman than he has shown most of his career. Perhaps it was coaching that held him back...I am not ruling that out. Then the question becomes is McLellan the right coach for Larsson at this point in time?

If Larsson can reach 30 points this season or 0.35 - 0.40ppg then I would be much more open to the possibility that he has more untapped offensive potential than I thought he had.

To that end I think that having a legit offensive dman like Barrie would help Larsson achieve that.

 

[Blitzago*]

All signs? I dont see that at all.
I would suggest that there was an indication that Larsson could be a better offensive dman than he has shown most of his career. Perhaps it was coaching that held him back...I am not ruling that out. Then the question becomes is McLellan the right coach for Larsson at this point in time?

If Larsson can reach 30 points this season or 0.35 - 0.40ppg then I would be much more open to the possibility that he has more untapped offensive potential than I thought he had.

To that end I think that having a legit offensive dman like Barrie would help Larsson achieve that.

He has already reached .375 ppg in a season with the devils, what makes you think its impossible for him to do with the oilers.

 

[guymez]

He has already reached .375 ppg in a season with the devils, what makes you think its impossible for him to do with the oilers.

Where did I say it was impossible?

 

[LaGu]

All signs? I dont see that at all.
I would suggest that there was an indication that Larsson could be a better offensive dman than he has shown most of his career. Perhaps it was coaching that held him back...I am not ruling that out. Then the question becomes is McLellan the right coach for Larsson at this point in time?

If Larsson can reach 30 points this season or 0.35 - 0.40ppg then I would be much more open to the possibility that he has more untapped offensive potential than I thought he had.

To that end I think that having a legit offensive dman like Barrie would help Larsson achieve that.

I know you don't, that would be part of the reason we're discussing it I guess. However, I think it is almost a certainty that he will do 30+ next season if healthy. Just my opinion. I base my "all signs" on what I have seen of him over several years and also, to a certain extent, his numbers in what I perceive as the right context.

Coaching is probably part of it, but Larsson himself says that he wasn't worth very much prior to the 14/15 season and in all honesty it wasn't that crazy to bench him or play him 3rd pairing minutes before that season. That said I think DeBoer, for whatever reason, did a disservice to himself, the team and Larsson for not playing him more that specific season. Even with limited minutes in the first half of that season it was fairly evident that he had taken a big step in his development.

Anyhow, it is what it is. For me it is reasonable to see him get big bump in his numbers this season for the various reasons I have laid out over the week or so (mostly in the other thread), but I get why people think that it is not likely. At the end of the day it comes down to how you crunch the numbers, which numbers you crunch and how you see him as a player when out there on the ice.

It has been brought up before here but I would also take a look at the WHC. By no means was it best against best and of course it is a very small sample size but right there he looked a bit like he was advertised before being drafted, as an offensive Dman. Afterwards he was laughing saying that it was fun to actually get to play a bit of offense and PP since he never gets to do that over here. He has the D thing figured out, now he will get the chance to work on the other side (and just to be clear his offense does need work).

 

[guymez]

I know you don't, that would be part of the reason we're discussing it I guess. However, I think it is almost a certainty that he will do 30+ next season if healthy. Just my opinion. I base my "all signs" on what I have seen of him over several years and also, to a certain extent, his numbers in what I perceive as the right context.

Coaching is probably part of it, but Larsson himself says that he wasn't worth very much prior to the 14/15 season and in all honesty it wasn't that crazy to bench him or play him 3rd pairing minutes before that season. That said I think DeBoer, for whatever reason, did a disservice to himself, the team and Larsson for not playing him more that specific season. Even with limited minutes in the first half of that season it was fairly evident that he had taken a big step in his development.

Anyhow, it is what it is. For me it is reasonable to see him get big bump in his numbers this season for the various reasons I have laid out over the week or so (mostly in the other thread), but I get why people think that it is not likely. At the end of the day it comes down to how you crunch the numbers, which numbers you crunch and how you see him as a player when out there on the ice.

It has been brought up before here but I would also take a look at the WHC. By no means was it best against best and of course it is a very small sample size but right there he looked a bit like he was advertised before being drafted, as an offensive Dman. Afterwards he was laughing saying that it was fun to actually get to play a bit of offense and PP since he never gets to do that over here. He has the D thing figured out, now he will get the chance to work on the other side (and just to be clear his offense does need work).

I have heard from other posters that DeBoer played a significant role in derailing Larssons development. I cant confirm or deny that but it really does seem to be a reoccurring sentiment which does provide some credibility IMO.

I have to say that I really appreciate your optimism around Larsson because you take the time to detail why you have adopted your position. You and some other posters have really added to the discussion by not pigeon holing my position and provided some useful data. Although I would like more context I have to admit that I have shifted from being very skeptical of Larssons offensive ability to being somewhat skeptical.

So thats at least some movement on my part.

I just need to see more.

I will also say that Larsson is one of a few story lines that I will following closely this season. Despite my slowly waning skepticism I would ultimately really like to be proven completely wrong and see Larsson excel as an Oiler.

 

[Up the Irons]

I think only winning games can make some people get over this trade. I think of when the Bruins traded Kessel, it's a very similar situation, sending off a 22 year old 36 goal scorer. And Kessel went on to put up more points for the Leafs than Hall might manage for the Devils.

Do you know any Bruins fans that are still mad about that trade? I'm not sure if they still exist. The team went on winning, and they didn't even really need what they got for Kessel to do it, Seguin played good for like 2 games or something in the playoffs and they grabbed onto that to make fun of leafs fans like the Kessel trade was an obvious win, but they probably still would have won their cup without Seguin.

Winning is a cure-all Fingers crossed the team can indeed start winning as a more balanced group and we can put the debate about this trade in the rear view at least to some degree.

true dat.

 

[LaGu]

I have heard from other posters that DeBoer played a significant role in derailing Larssons development. I cant confirm or deny that but it really does seem to be a reoccurring sentiment which does provide some credibility IMO.

I have to say that I really appreciate your optimism around Larsson because you take the time to detail why you have adopted your position. You and some other posters have really added to the discussion by not pigeon holing my position and provided some useful data. Although I would like more context I have to admit that I have shifted from being very skeptical of Larssons offensive ability to being somewhat skeptical.

So thats at least some movement on my part.

I just need to see more.

I will also say that Larsson is one of a few story lines that I will following closely this season. Despite my slowly waning skepticism I would ultimately really like to be proven completely wrong and see Larsson excel as an Oiler.

I don't know what happened really with DeBoer, but it was fairly clear that Larsson was not happy about how he was used in 14/15, and even though now he says all the right things about DeBoer he did sing a different tune some weeks after DeBoer was gone (at least in Swedish papers). Prior to that I would say that his deployment was more or less justified.

The issue I have with how DeBoer handled Larsson is (was) that he used a method that obviously did not work, scratching and reducing his minutes to an extreme after every single little mistake. I get that you should be able to learn the hard way but for Larsson it did not work and, as I said, even though it may have been justified in 12/13 and 13/14 it became ridiculous in the first half of 14/15 when everyone could see that he had taken a big step forward.

It does not really matter, and this thread is not about Larsson's relationship with DeBoer but in the end it would not surprise me if he set Larsson back a season or two with how he handled him. Then again Larsson came through to the other side anyway so it really doesn't matter (and of course an argument could be made that he just wasn't up for it prior to 14/15).

I mean he really came in flying to the NHL as an 18 year old, clocking Ekblad/Doughty minutes (approx 22 min/game) and on pace for almost 30 pts for over half of his rookie season. Then he got destroyed by PK Subban and the rest is (unfortunate) history.


In the end we will see, I am very confident that he will produce decently while giving us excellent defense. I am hopeful that he will be able to grow into even more than that in the future, but for now I would be happy with an ok production rate. Less than 30 points would not be a disaster, but it would be very disappointing and would have to be coupled with excellent play in our own end.

It is always nice to have good discussions about these matters, too often posters take a hard line and then never budge.

 

[Spawn]

weird.

considering that 60% of the time he was on a line with Jeff Carter and Tyler Toffoli during even strength.

I guess you meant he sat beside him on the bench?

and the year prior, the majority of his ES 5 on 5 was with Pastranak and Spooner.

Same thing there I guess?

Of Lucic's 1179 5v5 minutes this seaosn, 621 of those were with Anze Kopitar. 533 with Carter.

But I guess I should have included Carter. He's far better than the centerman Hall has had for the vast majority of his career too.

In his final season in Boston Lucic spen 450 of his 1100 5v5 minutes with Krejci. The most of any Boston player. And from his breakout year until the end of his time in Boston he spent ~3800 minutes of ~5100 with Krejci. Just about twice as much as any other player.

http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/showplayer.php?pid=578&withagainst=true&season=2010-15&sit=5v5

Check it out yourself.

 

[Replacement*]

And added Lucic, Puljujarvi and Larsson.

Also add a healthy McDavid, Klefbom, RNH and Yakupov.

A lot of uncertainty in this.

Pulju, straight out of a significant knee injury, and being a rookie, shouldn't be counted on to even start the season here, let alone be an offensive engine here in first season.
Larsson hasn't generated much here in pts. Maybe he does. Theres a lot riding on it.

Lucic doesn't offset Hall, or Halls ability to stretch D.

Klefbom, who has seeminly missed more games due to injury/illness than started is not what I would pin the cart to. Going to take him a longtime to get back to peak play even if he retains health.

RNH? If he stays healthy, if he has an impact season wherein he drove pts. How often does that occur?

Yakupov? I've supported this guy endlessly but its again show me territory. Show me part 2, the special stay of execution edition. Because the team is desperate for somebody to come through after the Hall trade.


Actually a lot of it smells od desperation, as did the trade.

Hall was pretty poor defensively with tons on mental lapses in his game so our GA will go up along with having a more complete defense

Did you miss last season? Because relative to this team this is pure fiction.

The teams GA had more to do with having no shutdown Center, having no shutdown D, than it did due to Taylor Hall, which should be obvious.

 

[Replacement*]

weird.

considering that 60% of the time he was on a line with Jeff Carter and Tyler Toffoli during even strength.

I guess you meant he sat beside him on the bench?

and the year prior, the majority of his ES 5 on 5 was with Pastranak and Spooner.

Same thing there I guess?

then on top of that .. those teams were far more defensively responsible and the players expected to be so.

So while Lucic may not net you as many goals as Hall. it's almost a laughable matter of so what? the delta goal difference will be in generating more time and space for other players on the ice, not to mention the leadership of getting the team to play better and with more determination.

Consideration of delta goal difference, a team metric, is an odd thing to posit in comparing LA, Boston, with Edmonton. Because most of what is being meaningful within that is the respective team scoring differential disparity. Without a control for that its the dominant variable in the relationship.

Hall was one of the best 200ft players on the team last year. One of the few who made the extra effort to get back a lot this year and play a better positional game. It even cost him some pts, for which he's criticized lol, while leading the team in pts by a wide margin.

Finally, you think its any good for production to be getting passes from Doughty and Vlasic all day instead of guys like Gryba and Pardy? WE had such a revolving door on D would be hard for a forward to even be in sync with one of them or vice versa. Forwards production benefits from synergy in back end. Good teams invariably provide that foundation.

 

[nabob]

This has been the issue I keep bringing up as well.
Everyone knows that a deadly PP is like points in the bank.
Even if you can't manage it for 82 games, having nice little runs on the PP can add so many points that the Oilers have been squandering for years.
I just don't get it. You have a man advantage. The PP should be the easiest fix on the team.
I would have accepted trading Hall for a proven PP producer like Shattenkirk. I know what that guy is going to do. I'm not just hoping.
Not to mention that a PP on the roll gets everybody going. Suddenly guys have a bit more creativity even 5x5. Lines start gelling better. I mean its a total no-brainer.
I simply do not understand how the Oilers think going into another ****ing season with zip, zilch and nada from the blueline is acceptable.

You would have traded Hall for one season of Shattenkirk, or 3/4 of a season then what ever you could get for him as a pending UFA at the deadline. Its well known that teams who inquired about him were told that they would not be allowed to talk extension before a trade was made. Also he is as close to a lock to sign in the East as any player ever has been, and I cant think of a time when a big name player was going UFA and didnt sign where he wanted to play.

Thats a huge gamble for Chia to take, much larger than hoping a 23 year old Dman can return to his EV production from two seasons ago and add 6-16 more points with PP time and slightly more favorable zone starts.

 

[belair]

A lot of uncertainty in this.

Pulju, straight out of a significant knee injury, and being a rookie, shouldn't be counted on to even start the season here, let alone be an offensive engine here in first season.
Larsson hasn't generated much here in pts. Maybe he does. Theres a lot riding on it.

Lucic doesn't offset Hall, or Halls ability to stretch D.

Klefbom, who has seeminly missed more games due to injury/illness than started is not what I would pin the cart to. Going to take him a longtime to get back to peak play even if he retains health.

RNH? If he stays healthy, if he has an impact season wherein he drove pts. How often does that occur?

Yakupov? I've supported this guy endlessly but its again show me territory. Show me part 2, the special stay of execution edition. Because the team is desperate for somebody to come through after the Hall trade.


Actually a lot of it smells od desperation, as did the trade.

Did you miss last season? Because relative to this team this is pure fiction.

The teams GA had more to do with having no shutdown Center, having no shutdown D, than it did due to Taylor Hall, which should be obvious.

Lucic scored 10 fewer points than Hall last season. And yes he may not have Hall's ability to skate into a corner but he does bring a different brand of hockey with him.

If we're speaking directly about offensive production, I'm going to take the Lucic/JP/Larsson group to out score Hall this season which softens his loss considerably.

And the pessimistic outlook for every single player we have is pathetic. It's not like Hall and McDavid were the only two guys who were ever going to score points for us. Nuge only had 34 points last season, Yak 23, Klefbom had 12. Do you honestly think all their numbers are going to stay down? And if yes, who gives a **** about the Hall trade, we were never going to be good anyways, right?

 

[Young Lions*]

Catching up after a weekend away...

So if we do the Subban deal we get our top pair RHD. But we also lose our top pair LHD, our 6'4 20 year old third line center and a 6'4 rookie power-forward RW. And we add $5m in cap spending for the foreseeable future. But at least we get to keep Mark Messier, whatever that means.

This isn't entirely accurate.

If we were doing the trade before the draft, we'd have no way of knowing PJ would fall to us. At the point it's still just a pick. As for losing Klefblom, sure that would sting, but he's never healthy anyway and LHD are a lot easier to find that Norris calibre RHD.

A right handed d-man who fills our biggest need today. You can question his upside all you want, but he's a top pairing guy today. And you weren't going to get him for a combination of our third, fourth and fifth best players.

Hall is a very good player but all he really offered was offense. That is replaceable.

Except we could have got a actual top pairing D man with no questions about upside for exactly that.

Because of Price. Without Price and with a healthy Subban, they sunk like a stone last season so it's pretty obvious who was the driving force behind the Habs success.

It wasn't so much losing Price that killed them as the fact his replacements were well below league average. And Subban in an off year is still better than Larsson at his best.

Subban is an excellent offensive Dman and one of the most dynamic PP players in the league but there are serious question marks about his ability to defend top forwards, has a huge contract and these apparent character issues in which there's a lot of smoke so it's not like there wasn't risk with Subban.

If the defensive issues were so apparent, they'd show up in the numbers, yet Subban puts up consistently strong possession metrics. He makes mistakes, as does any risk-taker, but there's no actual evidence that it's a major flaw in his game. As for the character issues, that says more about the organization tan the player.

I prefer to have a team with great depth than a team with a couple of elite pieces and little depth.

Except you need elite pieces to win Cups in this league. That's why we tanked to begin with.

 

[CupofOil]

I think there needs to be a more accurate portrayal of positions in this discussion which you haven't provided here. I have not seen one post that suggests that there should not have been a shakeup with the core of this team.
Clearly the team needed a shakeup...a core piece had to go. Thats not the issue at all...the issue is value.

The Oilers didnt just 'not win' this deal...they lost it badly. That is the reality and it has nothing to do with Hall being a 'franchise' winger which is then debated ad nausium. It has to do with the fact that Hall is a top 12 LW in this League. He drives any line that he is on...he is a game changer. You and others can downplay Halls impact as much as you want but Hall has averaged almost .9 ppg through out his NHL career. Try and find 10 other LW's in the game today that have done that for the first 5-6 years of their NHL career. Hall is a special player.

From a player perspective Larsson is a downgrade in value. If you want to include intangibles like leadership (shaking up the core...et al) then you cant factor that into the trade and use it to prop up Larssons value.
They are completely separate...they shouldn't be a part of a Larsson for Hall discussion.

It is possible to acknowledge the fact that the Oilers lost this deal and still like Larsson as a player. It is possible that Larsson may come close to covering the bet on this deal in the next few years.
I hope that happens but I am open to the reality that there is a strong possibility that it may not happen.

So what now....the Oilers lost this deal and we now know that Chia is willing to overpay for dmen he thinks can be difference makers. Its a risk...will it turn out okay...time will tell.

You have no way of confirming that this risk will turn out okay any more than someone who didnt like the deal can confirm that Larsson wont grow into a 2 way #2 dman.

Only time will reveal the outcome of this. Right now it was a bad deal which is relying on hope that things turn out okay.

It shouldn't come as a surprise to you or anybody else that many posters are tired of this formula as it has failed far more often than it has succeeded.

Thats the point that needed to be underscored here IMO.

Question then.... How would you compare Kessel and Hall as far as value is concerned? The reason I ask is because the reality based on Hall comparables (which Kessel very much is) is that wingers outside of the very elite just aren't worth that much on the open market especially when coming from a team that badly needs a shakeup and has a very clear need, a desperate need in other areas.
Keep in mind a few things about Hall as well, never scored 30 goals, not great defensively, a few "down" offensive seasons by his standards and one of the leaders of a core that just had arguably the worst 6 year stretch of any franchise in sports history.

The Oilers were never going to get a Dman equivalent of Hall, somebody as proven a defender as Hall is a winger, it just wasn't realistic. RNH and Eberle don't get you Larsson, the Oilers had two distinct needs going into the offseason, a top pairing shutdown defender and a high level puckmover. Larsson played like a top pairing shutdown defender, all the stats and the eye test point to that. I could buy that he needs to prove that he can do this for more than a full season so he's somewhat of a question mark as a result but the Oilers weren't getting a proven top pairing Dman (especially not one with a long term contract attached) without gutting their roster.

When you're a last place team for the last 6 years and the most expendable assets are the core that led the team to most of those last place finishes, you're bargaining from a major area of weakness. Some on this forum have been saying for months that the Oilers were going to have to lose a trade to fill an area of need. There was going to be no winning valuewise so essentially, the options were to stand pat and go the free agent route to sign a Dman like Demers who doesn't really check off any of the boxes of needs outside of the fact that he's a better 2nd pairing option than Fayne and roll with the group as is and see if they can take the next step which IMO, is a bigger risk than the Hall trade or make a trade from a relative position of strength (highly skilled forward) to address an area of major weakness.

We'll see if it works out, nobody knows right now and nobody should be declaring this trade a loss or a win right now (I see too much of that here) until we see how the pieces fit over the next couple of years. If Larsson can even modestly improve on his performance last season and Lucic provides what he usually provides, this is a much better team and if Larsson regresses and turns into another Fayne and Lucic turns into Dustin Brown in the next couple of years then the pitchforks will be out for Chia. I think the former is more likely based on the pedigree of both players.

 

[belair]

Catching up after a weekend away...



This isn't entirely accurate.

If we were doing the trade before the draft, we'd have no way of knowing PJ would fall to us. At the point it's still just a pick. As for losing Klefblom, sure that would sting, but he's never healthy anyway and LHD are a lot easier to find that Norris calibre RHD.



Except we could have got a actual top pairing D man with no questions about upside for exactly that.



It wasn't so much losing Price that killed them as the fact his replacements were well below league average. And Subban in an off year is still better than Larsson at his best.



If the defensive issues were so apparent, they'd show up in the numbers, yet Subban puts up consistently strong possession metrics. He makes mistakes, as does any risk-taker, but there's no actual evidence that it's a major flaw in his game. As for the character issues, that says more about the organization tan the player.



Except you need elite pieces to win Cups in this league. That's why we tanked to begin with.

Once again how many championship teams in recent history have gutted their roster depth to obtain their 'elite' defenseman?

Answer: None. They all became 'elite' by helping lead those teams to becoming competitive.

 

[Young Lions*]

Once again how many championship teams in recent history have gutted their roster depth to obtain their 'elite' defenseman?

And the hypothetical Subban trade we were discussing wouldn't have done that.

Answer: None. They all became 'elite' by helping lead those teams to becoming competitive

And how many elite D men in the league (talking top 15 here) weren't pegged as such by age 23? Keith? Anyone else?

 

[Young Lions*]

Question then.... How would you compare Kessel and Hall as far as value is concerned? The reason I ask is because the reality based on Hall comparables (which Kessel very much is) is that wingers outside of the very elite just aren't worth that much on the open market especially when coming from a team that badly needs a shakeup and has a very clear need, a desperate need in other areas.

Why Kessel as your comparable? That trade was a cap dump by a rebuilding team. Why not Rick Nash?

 

[nabob]

Why Kessel as your comparable? That trade was a cap dump by a rebuilding team. Why not Rick Nash?

Nash had a NMC and could only go to one team...it was also unanimous that the return they got was quite poor.

 

[bucks_oil]

There were a lot of variables which factored into the PP in past years. I think the continuity of having Kruger and Nelson around the team prior to their head coaching stints helped.
There was better offensive talent on D as well.

I have detailed this in the past but dont care to rehash it all over again. Thats the trouble with trying to support a contrary opinion...you end up having to repeat yourself endlessly with each poster that takes issue wit your position.

As for the NJ power play...how much of a role did Larsson play in that? We both know that the answer to that is zero.

Also keep in mind that as much as everyone in these parts complained about their PP the Oilers were only 0.4% from being in the top 15 in terms of PP%. That is factoring in the injury to McDavid.
So I would suggest that Woodcroft actually did a decent job with the PP despite the fact that the Oilers had the worst group of offensive dmen in the NHL. That team hasn't had a sad sack group of offensively challenged dmen like that for many years previously.
This season wont be much different in that regard. With a player like McDavid this should be a top 10 PP...with a player like Barrie it would be. Thats probably another 5 wins and 10 points in the standings so yeah...its important.

Lets talk again in 5 months and see if Klefbom and Larsson are the primary PP dmen. I am betting that doesnt happen and Chairelli addresses this issue because I see it as a pretty clear issue.

This is a good discussion... sorry to be wading in here post-hoc.

Can I ask... is your view that we should (still) be trading RNH (+?) for Barrie even after trading Hall for Larsson?

You feel the trade off of having two new RD, one a shut-down and one an offensive catalyst is worth sacrificing a third scoring line for? (I'm not saying that's unreasonable... just trying to understand where you are coming from)

I ask this because I think people (in general) around here have failed to consider that either: 1) maybe RNH for Barrie was an option on the table that Chiarelli PASSED OVER in favor of Hall for Larsson and 2) or it isn't an option at all... meaning Sakic won't go for it.

If neither of 1 or 2 were true... wouldn't the deal be done already? To me there has been enough smoke for long enough that we can put that rumor in the Subban pile. Something that has been considered and discarded by one side or the other.

To put it another way: Chia likes RNH (based on his past comments). I'd submit that if he thought Barrie was an all-situations D worthy of RNH, the deal would have happened already and he likely would not have traded Hall for Larsson. I think he selected one deal over the other.

 

[nabob]

And the hypothetical Subban trade we were discussing wouldn't have done that.



And how many elite D men in the league (talking top 15 here) weren't pegged as such by age 23? Keith? Anyone else?

The Subban trade that was rumored to be Montreal's asking price was Drai, Klef, #4(PLD), + another valuable asset. That is the definition of gutting the team.

Did you expect to get a top 15 Elite Dman in the league for Hall? Hall probably isnt even in the conversation as far as elite forwards go. He for sure isnt a top 30 forward in the league. Add to the fact that Dmen do hold more value than wingers and the whole discussion is moot.

 

[Fourier]

If the defensive issues were so apparent, they'd show up in the numbers, yet Subban puts up consistently strong possession metrics. He makes mistakes, as does any risk-taker, but there's no actual evidence that it's a major flaw in his game. As for the character issues, that says more about the organization tan the player.

It is interesting that we have had a lot of discussion about the influence of Greene on Larson but when it comes to Subban there is very little talk about the influence of Markov. Going back to 2012 Subban has played 4926 ES minutes. Of these 2774 were with Markov and 2152 with someone else. That is a 56-44% split. So this is a decent sample size both with and without Markov. All of his statistical metrics are much better with Markov. For example of his 87ES points the split is 63-37% with Markov vs without. That's a 33% higher scoring rate with Markov vs when he plays with another partner. His GF% drops from 57.3% with Markov to 50.6% without.

Playing with a guy as steady as Markov, and as talented helps Subban's game a great deal. He can play a much riskier brand of hockey because Markov is there to back him up. On the Oilers I would say that he would have had to tone down his game or his style somewhat. Moreover I would expect his defensive flaws would be more noticeable.

None of this is to suggest that Subban is not a great talent, but he has benefitted greatly from playing with one of the top two-way defenders of the last half decade.

 

[belair]

And the hypothetical Subban trade we were discussing wouldn't have done that.



And how many elite D men in the league (talking top 15 here) weren't pegged as such by age 23? Keith? Anyone else?

Chara.

 

[Young Lions*]

The Subban trade that was rumored to be Montreal's asking price was Drai, Klef, #4(PLD), + another valuable asset. That is the definition of gutting the team.

I can't agree that trading two players and a pick who haven't proven a g-d thing in this league is gutting the team, especially given we'd have the best player in the world under 25, a top 5 LW in the league and a top 5 D man to boot.

Did you expect to get a top 15 Elite Dman in the league for Hall?

No, which is why I would have kept him and traded away those other pieces instead.

Hall probably isnt even in the conversation as far as elite forwards go. He for sure isnt a top 30 forward in the league.

Hall is 24th in points among forwards in the last four years. He's third in ES points per 60 in that same span. You can argue that he's not elite because that means different things to different people, but to say he's not a top 30 forward is just plain wrong.

 

[Ol' Jase]

I can't agree that trading two players and a pick who haven't proven a g-d thing in this league is gutting the team, especially given we'd have the best player in the world under 25, a top 5 LW in the league and a top 5 D man to boot.

First, it's laughable to suggest Subban is a top 5 D men in the NHL.

Second, Just reducing Leon Draisatl and Oscar Klefbom to merely players who haven't done a "g-d thing" serves only to fit your narrative.

Finally, the "pick" you so flippantly mentioned is a bonafide elite prospect.