Who was Larsson paired with that season? Thats an important element to consider here simply because it is an outlier.
As I said previously...we shall see if and when Larsson can contribute offensively with this team. There are elements to his game that simply dont measure up for me not the least of which is Larssons weak point shot. He is not a threat at all from the point...teams know this and wont respect his shot. It wont change the dynamic of how easy it is to defend this team on the PP.
That story is yet to be written but you might understand if I remain skeptical until Larsson actually proves that the unending hope around here is justified.
There are no guarantees about Larsson offense obviously but I am as sure as can be that he will score at the very least 30 pts if healthy next season.
I don't think it is an outlier really. I think it is at least as representative as this last season of what can be expected from a defenseman who is a great puck mover. Larsson himself said that the turning point in his career came last season and that was where he took a huge step forward. He also said that he was happy with this season in general but not production wise and that he would need to work on that for next year.
Regarding 14/15. What happened that season was that once DeBoer left, Larsson ice time was ramped up from around 16 mins/night on average (and being scratched every second game) to 23 mins/night and he was paired up with Greene (not as buried as in 15/16 but still with toughest competition and most DZ starts on NJD). Before that I remember him playing mostly with Gelinas, and sometimes Helgeson. This change happened more or less over night late December 2014. If you take a look at his stats from that turning point things look interesting. His total points pace becomes 36 pts, with 31 EV pts and 5 SH pts. Actually, not considering pace, he already led the league in SH points that season, but those are so few and far between for any player that I wouldn't consider them really. Anyhow, 31 EV pts in 14/15 would have been good for 10th place in EV scoring. That kind of EV strength production is similar to that of Weber, Pietro, Doughty, Brodie (at least over the last two seasons).
In the end yes, we will see if he manages to produce here. I think all signs point towards that he will lift his weight in terms of production (30+ would be acceptable to me), but then again he is on a new team, a new conference and he is still very young. I could also see a bit of a slump going into the season, but I hope not.