Tank Thread and Tanking GDT XIX: Tankception (BUF @ CBJ)

[zenthusiast]

I think a more appropriate bills comparison is... Remember the season we started 0-8 and then decided it was the smart thing to go 4-4 to end the season? Luck ended up deciding to return to college after the season...which lessened that blow considerably...but the back half of that year they were just winning meaningless games and "building culture" that led to 4 more seasons and counting of missing the playoffs.

Speaking of the bills...NFL network had the music city Miracle on today. Because the curse.

they ended up still drafting the best player on their team

 

[TalkingProuder]

Ok, don't freak out when I suggest this in a radical quest for an adrenalin rush:

Part of me would like to see the Sabres beat CBJ tonight, just because it is so unlikely AND because it would set the stage for tomorrow----a day that may go down as one of THE most adrenalin-fueled days in Buffalo sports history!

Can anybody appreciate that scenario---even a little?

Yeah, that would be awesome. A new way to torture fans with hope building up for 5-6 months and then snatch that hope away last minute so Ted Nolan can walk out of here with the 29th place trophy. Maybe he can have Dalpe and Ellis drink out of it tomorrow night...

 

[Bps21*]

they ended up still drafting the best player on their team

And it's gotten them nowhere.

Perfectly fit with missing mceichel

 

[sjci]

Ok, don't freak out when I suggest this in a radical quest for an adrenalin rush:

Part of me would like to see the Sabres beat CBJ tonight, just because it is so unlikely AND because it would set the stage for tomorrow----a day that may go down as one of THE most adrenalin-fueled days in Buffalo sports history!

Can anybody appreciate that scenario---even a little?

 

[theformat04]

Ok, don't freak out when I suggest this in a radical quest for an adrenalin rush:

Part of me would like to see the Sabres beat CBJ tonight, just because it is so unlikely AND because it would set the stage for tomorrow----a day that may go down as one of THE most adrenalin-fueled days in Buffalo sports history!

Can anybody appreciate that scenario---even a little?

At no point during this season have I cheered for a loss. I'm not trying to act holier than thou, I just never did. But if it comes down to potentially the most embarrassing event in franchise history tomorrow, or rooting for a loss...

I'm hoping we lose.

 

[1point21Gigawatts]

Ok, don't freak out when I suggest this in a radical quest for an adrenalin rush:

Part of me would like to see the Sabres beat CBJ tonight, just because it is so unlikely AND because it would set the stage for tomorrow----a day that may go down as one of THE most adrenalin-fueled days in Buffalo sports history!

Can anybody appreciate that scenario---even a little?

The madness that would ensue... it certainly would make the day...er...interesting? But no, not at all. I want this mess to be cleaned up tonight.

 

[zenthusiast]

And it's gotten them nowhere.

Perfectly fit with missing mceichel

i mean by that metric there are a hell of a lot of hof players that never went anywhere

 

[EichHart]

 

[McCauleyChirps]

^ Hilarious. Mostly because of the poor photoshop. heh

 

[HP00]

Least the collar matches up

 

[Sabretooth]

The SCS data is wrong. It must not factor tie-breakers into account. BUF does not have a 50% chance of finishing 30th with 57 points. BUF has a 66% chance of finishing 30th with 57 points. For the 2 possible combinations where BUF finishes with 57 points (W,OTL or OTL,W), ARI could in turn finish with 56, 57, or 58 points. Two of those ARI outcomes put BUF in 30th place.

Its not wrong. The 50/50 is not calculated the same way you are running your random distribution odds.

I actually just checked this out earlier to confirm, but the 50/50 method does truly assume 50% chance of winning and 50% chance of losing. However it breaks the losing into 37.6% chance the loss will be in regulation and 12.4% chance the loss will be in OT/SO for a loser point. This seems to come from the actual data of outcomes in the league - 2462 game "outcomes" (2 outcomes per GP), and 302 loser points have been awarded. 302/2426 = 12.4%. I ran the numbers and this gives 82.8% chance for the sabres finishing 30th, which matches SCS. It all matches for all the what if scenarios.

I think this is probably more accurate than assuming a 33% chance across all outcomes in a game, since the data does not show a loser point has a 33% chance of occuring across the league. In all outcomes of every game played this year, 50% of the time there will have been a win outcome, 37.6% of the time there will have been a regulation loss outcome, and 12.4% of the time there will have been a loser point outcome. This I believe is what the 50/50 method is trying to represent.

There's some information in the "what is this" link that supports this. The author states that he uses a 22% chance of going into OT, but this seems out of date since he references this was the rate of OT games in 07-08. It makes sense he would be using an up-to-date OT rate today and that probably the page just hasn't been updated.

By the way everybody really should read that "what is this" link in detail, especially before calling the site trash or its numbers trash. It knows what it is and it knows its limitations. http://www.sportsclubstats.com/WhatIsThis.html

 

[old kummelweck]

CBJ are due for a loss.

 

[Myllz]

CBJ are due for a loss.

Yeah, which will come next season.

 

[DeadGhost]

As discussed Pitt will be playing with 5 d-men tonight and one of them is Taylor Chorney.

They will have something to play for in game #82.

 

[ROC]

Anyone know who the starting goaltenders are going to be for tonight's game?

 

[BuzzKillington90]

CBJ are due for a loss.

They lost in OT on Monday. So were good.

 

[Karate Johnson*]

ok, don't freak out when i suggest this in a radical quest for an adrenalin rush:

Part of me would like to see the sabres beat cbj tonight, just because it is so unlikely and because it would set the stage for tomorrow----a day that may go down as one of the most adrenalin-fueled days in buffalo sports history!

Can anybody appreciate that scenario---even a little?

hell is real!

 

[MayDay]

Is it too much to ask that this team get blown out for once? Something like 4-0 or 5-0 after the 1st so we can all breathe a little easier?

This is supposed to be one of the statistically worst teams of all time! Don't terrible teams get blown out here and there? When was the last time this team got blown out?

 

[sjci]

Anyone know who the starting goaltenders are going to be for tonight's game?

Lindback and Bob

 

[RiotAct]

Love the thread title changes every three minutes.

 

[Zip15]

It's going to be a weird scene tomorrow if they get a point. White is already joining Collar from 12-4, either to celebrate McEichel or set the stage for what will be a bizarrely huge game. It's going to be day-long coverage of that game if they point tonight.

 

[Onslow]

This is gonna be a stressful night. I hope the jackets score early and often and leave no doubt.

 

[Bonlarvis]

I cant take tonight, so I'm going to watch McDavid play in Erie.

Please lose Sabres.

 

[Sabre Dance]

Power outage, phone dying. I'm going to be a nervous wreck.

 

[Gras]