Tank Thread and Tanking GDT XIX: Tankception (BUF @ CBJ)

[HogtownSabresfan]

We're not doomed by a long shot. But loosing out on McEichel at this point is insane. But we have a coach who won't play his backup goalie this weekend and is double and tripling shifting guys to finish 29th. It's mostly on Nolan if we lose this and partially on Murray/Pegula for putting a madman in the cockpit.

 

[stokes84]

What if the whole time the plan has been to trade the pick to the maple leafs for Phil Kessel!

WHAT THEN? DO YOU STILL HAVE FAITH?

Or we could just not play in silly hypotheticals.

How is that at all silly? Crouse is ranked ahead of Marner on most major lists.

 

[fing0rz]

At least if we lose 30th,we still have a 33% chance it won't matter r:-(

 

[CaptPantalones]

We could use a nice, long hibernation after the past 2 years

One way or the other I'm disappearing from these boards for a good month or 2 after the lottery. I need a break

 

[brian_griffin]

As of 4/10 | BUF | ARI
Games Played | 80 | 81 |
Games Remaining | 2 | 1 |
Points | 54 | 56 |
McEichel Number | | 2 |
% of finishing 30th | 90 | 10 |

Convenient Link w/schedule for all 3 teams: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet...3QhNNqbpofBFS_dVd-4/pubhtml?gid=0&single=true

Games Tonight:
Buffalo @ Columbus, 7:00 PM EDT (MSG-B,BELL TV,FS-O)

On random probability, the odds of BUF getting last is 86%.

Outcome Prob BUF ARI BUF_PTs ARI_PTs Prob_Favoring_BUF
1 0.033 4 2 58 58 0.033
2 0.033 4 1 58 57 0
3 0.033 4 0 58 56 0
4 0.066 3 2 57 58 0.066
5 0.066 3 1 57 57 0.066
6 0.066 3 0 57 56 0
7 0.132 2 2 56 58 0.132
8 0.132 2 1 56 57 0.132
9 0.132 2 0 56 56 0.132
10 0.066 1 2 55 58 0.066
11 0.066 1 1 55 57 0.066
12 0.066 1 0 55 56 0.066
13 0.033 0 2 54 58 0.033
14 0.033 0 1 54 57 0.033
15 0.033 0 0 54 56 0.033
TOTAL 0.99 XX XX XX XX 0.858

It takes us winning both games. Simple as that.

For ARI to finish 30th, it's not that simple.
If BUF wins both games, ARI cannot win their game.
If BUF wins 1 game, they can't OTL their other game and ARI can't lose their game.

Not really. We can lose in OT/SO and Arizona can lose in OT/SO and we'll still get 30th.

We can also win both games, and Arizona can win against Anaheim.

In the first case you cite, BUF must also have lost their other game in order for BUF to finish 30th.

Or winning one and losing one in OT. Not that hard. Just need to lose this in regulation. Fan appreciation night is going to be a mess unless they do the right thing.

Provided ARI loses their finale too, in which case ARI finishes 30th.

===========================================================
Edit: Comment on Doak's post below.

The SCS data is wrong. It must not factor tie-breakers into account. BUF does not have a 50% chance of finishing 30th with 57 points. BUF has a 66% chance of finishing 30th with 57 points. For the 2 possible combinations where BUF finishes with 57 points (W,OTL or OTL,W), ARI could in turn finish with 56, 57, or 58 points. Two of those ARI outcomes put BUF in 30th place.

1 W,W W 4 2 58 58 0.037037037
2 W,W OTL 4 1 58 57 0
3 W,W L 4 0 58 56 0
4 W,OTL W 3 2 57 58 0.037037037
5 W,OTL OTL 3 1 57 57 0.037037037
6 W,OTL L 3 0 57 56 0
7 W,L W 2 2 56 58 0.037037037
8 W,L OTL 2 1 56 57 0.037037037
9 W,L L 2 0 56 56 0.037037037
10 OTL,OTL W 2 2 56 58 0.037037037
11 OTL,OTL OTL 2 1 56 57 0.037037037
12 OTL,OTL L 2 0 56 56 0.037037037
13 OTL,W W 3 2 57 58 0.037037037
14 OTL,W OTL 3 1 57 57 0.037037037
15 OTL,W L 3 0 57 56 0
16 OTL,L W 1 2 55 58 0.037037037
17 OTL,L OTL 1 1 55 57 0.037037037
18 OTL,L L 1 0 55 56 0.037037037
19 L,W W 2 2 56 58 0.037037037
20 L,W OTL 2 1 56 57 0.037037037
21 L,W L 2 0 56 56 0.037037037
22 L,OTL W 1 2 55 58 0.037037037
23 L,OTL OTL 1 1 55 57 0.037037037
24 L,OTL L 1 0 55 56 0.037037037
25 L,L W 0 2 54 58 0.037037037
26 L,L OTL 0 1 54 57 0.037037037
27 L,L L 0 0 54 56 0.037037037
The sum of the right-most-column is the Sabres odds of finishing 30th, which is 85.2% (differs slightly from the above table because of more decimal places)

So the Stokes odds of Crouse in BUF, assuming random events:
14.8% finishing 29th
66.6% neither BUF nor ARI win lottery
25.0% Crouse pick ahead of Strome, Hanafin, Marner
TOTAL: 2.46% Stokes scenario plays out.

 

[TehDoak]

How is that at all silly? Crouse is ranked ahead of Marner on most major lists.

Here are the things that NEED to happen for us to even get to the point where that is an option

#1. Buffalo has to obtain at minimum 3 points in the next 2 games
#2. Arizona has to lose its last game vs Anaheim

IF both of those happen, then we're looking at a likely scenario of us picking 3rd overall IF a team other than Arizona or Buffalo lose the lottery. Its probable, but, there's still a 1/3 chance that either team WINS the lotto and Buffalo stays in the top 2.

THEN Tim Murray and Kevin Devine have to decide that Crouse is the #3 pick ahead of Strome, Hanafin, and Marner.

So, the scenario is:

Per sports club stats and the 50/50 model: 10% chance we don't finish 30%

http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL/Eastern/Atlantic/Buffalo.html

Then a 66.5% chance of that we don't stay in the top 2

(66.5% of 10% chance, so, a 6.65% that we could even BE in the position to draft 3)

THEN you are saying that, if this 6.65% chance scenario, there MIGHT be a chance that MAYBE Tim Murray and Kevin Devine MIGHT chose Crouse over Hanafin, Strome, and Marner.

That is the EXACT scenario we're talking about.

So, I propose an avatar bet.

IF the Sabres select Crouse in the draft, you get to pick my avatar for 5 years
IF they select anyone else, I get to pick yours for a year.

Deal?

 

[stokes84]

I think we all know the likelihood of drafting third at this point. I don't need an entire exposition.

The idea is that we will still be fine because Marner is great and we trust Tim Murray. It seems to me that the argument is, we should trust Murray and co. as long as they have a similar thought process to me. Which I find to be BS. Anything other than 30 is a disaster.

 

[Husko]

Here's the real question: Do we hit tank thread 21 tonight?

 

[Clock]

Here's the real question: Do we hit tank thread 21 tonight?

At some point tonight, yes.

 

[BuzzKillington90]

From the Blue Jackets gameday preview:

The Blue Jackets have won their home finale in each of the last three seasons. The last team to spoil Columbus' last hurrah at Nationwide Arena was the Buffalo Sabres in April 2011.

#FOREBODING

 

[TehDoak]

I think we all know the likelihood of drafting third at this point. I don't need an entire exposition.

The idea is that we will still be fine because Marner is great and we trust Tim Murray. It seems to me that the argument is, we should trust Murray and co. as long as they have a similar thought process to me. Which I find to be BS. Anything other than 30 is a disaster.

I don't think many people will be happy, Tim Murray included, if we miss on Eichel/McDavid. However, drafting #3 isn't the end of the world and my faith regardless of how you feel about Murray and the scouting staff. My faith that we are finally doing a proper rebuild after several decades of half ass'd "reloads" and overall dumb moves. I go back to Chicago getting Cam Barker instead of Ovechkin/Malkin. 7 years later they won their 1st of two cups.

Rebuilds are not done in one draft or in one pick. They just aren't Getting McDavid or Eichel. Getting one is BETTER than not getting them, for sure, but there are plenty of quality players in this draft.

But picking #3 doesn't mean that the rebuild has failed or the organization is a steaming pile of ****. It just means we're picking #3.

 

[ClassicBusiness]

From the Blue Jackets gameday preview:

The Blue Jackets have won their home finale in each of the last three seasons. The last team to spoil Columbus' last hurrah at Nationwide Arena was the Buffalo Sabres in April 2011.

#FOREBODING

Oh my GOD

 

[TehDoak]

At some point tonight, yes.

Oh good, the tank thread will be old enough to get tanked.

Maybe it'll drink itself out of its own misery.

 

[TehDoak]

From the Blue Jackets gameday preview:

The Blue Jackets have won their home finale in each of the last three seasons. The last team to spoil Columbus' last hurrah at Nationwide Arena was the Buffalo Sabres in April 2011.

#FOREBODING

Oh my GOD

 

[indigoo]

From the Blue Jackets gameday preview:

The Blue Jackets have won their home finale in each of the last three seasons. The last team to spoil Columbus' last hurrah at Nationwide Arena was the Buffalo Sabres in April 2011.

#FOREBODING

Haha seriously just put me out of my misery now.

 

[RiotAct]

Gettin' kind of tense in here. Hopefully we lose in regulation tonight and we can live in harmonious peace again!

 

[CatsforReinhart]

This is our stanley cup

 

[Clock]

Oh good, the tank thread will be old enough to get tanked.

Maybe it'll drink itself out of its own misery.

I can't even tell you how gratifying it will be to lock the thread, the tanking chapter over for at least seven or eight months.

 

[TalkingProuder]

I think most are off the tank no matter what happens but if we start like crap next year how soon before the tank threads are back? End of October, November?

We're adding Kane and Reinhart to forwards next year, getting back Girgensons. That doesn't look like enough for a team historically bad at scoring. Marner and Strome will be back in juniors next year.

 

[Zip15]

Pens forced to play with five defensemen tonight due to cap constraints and injuries. May only have five for tomorrow night, as well, if Ehrhoff isn't ready.

 

[TehDoak]

I can't even tell you how gratifying it will be to lock the thread, the tanking chapter over for at least seven or eight months.

Can we start a tank to tank the tank thread thread?

It'd be so meta.

 

[Chad Thundercock]

I talk tank as soon as it's obvious Buffalo teams aren't going to make the playoffs, which is most years with the Sabres and every year with the Bills. So, yeah.

 

[RiotAct]

I talk tank as soon as it's obvious Buffalo teams aren't going to make the playoffs, which is most years with the Sabres and every year with the Bills. So, yeah.

come on man, good things ahead for the Sabres! '22-'23 is going to be Our Season!!!

 

[Der Jaeger]

I would take that in a heartbeat. Problem is this is just a best case scenario, not a real projection. And this is coming from someone that sees little downside in Reinhart and Girgensons.

I am hugely bullish on Sam but what you are posting is an ideal scenario. I love Girgensons but see him as an ideal power forward. Larsson is a nice prospect and I see him able to play the #3 center if he continues his play. Grigorenko has shown nothing in the NHL at this point. I would keep him around but it's a long shot he makes an impact.

Projecting McEichel as a franchise centerman is also a best case scenario.

We're looking at establishing a Cup winning team. Those centerman are not the core of a team contending yearly just to make the playoffs. They have Cup-winning potential. And that's the goal of the tank.

 

[Clock]

I talk tank as soon as it's obvious Buffalo teams aren't going to make the playoffs, which is most years with the Sabres and every year with the Bills. So, yeah.

Not for me, not if we're on the upswing. I've said it in the tanking threads, but the objective is to get better and win championships, not collect the most amount of high picks. Gotta start somewhere, and that can't be "playoff berth."