Player Discussion Tables of Stats' 2024-25 Stats Thread

[Tables of Stats]

Hello again HF Canucks, I hope everybody has had a great offseason and is as excited for the upcoming season as I am. With the roster all but set, it is once again time for me to predict the scoring of our roster heading into the season. This season I've made a few small changes to my method to avoid using NHLe.

The method used is as follows:

1) For each player take the average of their last 3 seasons for games played, goals, assists, and points. I used to use AHL data for games played to measure player durability, but I have used only NHL data this season.

2) Fill out the team's predicted roster using 14 forwards and 7 defensemen.

3) Compare the predicted number of man games played to the number of man games played over a full season for both forwards and defence.

4) Fill out the remaining games played with the average stats of the bottom of the roster players.

This model tends to underpredict points for younger players who are still improving and over-predict for older players who may be declining.

These are the base predictions using the method without any additional weighting. Please note, that Aman's 23-24 stats have been counted twice, once in his three-season average and again in the average for the production of forwards 15-19:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1lMC__ANRefwTLtOM_GAfz5yORR4CGA42r5ubznVCzt8/edit?gid=0#gid=0

This predicts that this roster will score 260 goals next season, 19 less than we scored this past season. For those predicting that Boeser will regress this season note that this prediction expects him to score 27 goals rather than the 40 he scored last season.

The other tabs show predictions that double the weight of a player's worst stats in each of the past three seasons (Pessimistic), double the weight of their best stats in each of the past three seasons (Optimistic), and double the weight on the most recent season (Most Recent). Due to rounding points don't fully align with goals and assists but this is a very minor thing and doesn't affect things by enough to be worth correcting. The extra skater stats still only use the stats from last season, but games played by these players change between predictions.

The goal totals for each prediction are 260, 241, 278, and 269 respectively. These would be good for the 15th, 24th, T7th, and 10th positions in team goal scoring compared to the 2023-24 season. The average of all 4 seasons predicts 263 goals good for 15th in the league last season.

------

I will update this before the puck drops on game 1 to factor in any further roster moves such as Blais making the team. I am also considering making three other predictions; one that is optimistic and doubles the weight of the best season for each player, a pessimistic prediction that does the same for each player's worst season, and a recency bias prediction that doubles the weight of the 2023-24 season. Let me know if you'd like to see these predictions.

Click to read more...

 

[jd22]

I don't know if it's possible with this format, but if so: it might be a thought to lock Column 1 so people can see what player it is referring to as they scroll right.

Strikes me as a bit of an underpowered offensive squad, but I suspect Heinen, Sherwood and Debrusk are a bit under-estimated. We shall see.

 

[Tables of Stats]

I don't know if it's possible with this format, but if so: it might be a thought to lock Column 1 so people can see what player it is referring to as they scroll right.

Strikes me as a bit of an underpowered offensive squad, but I suspect Heinen, Sherwood and Debrusk are a bit under-estimated. We shall see.

Column 1 is locked on my end. I wonder if it's a forum issue with the preview? I added the link in plain text so people can read the sheet directly. I hope that helps with readability.

As for our scoring, this model doesn't account for player role, TOI, chemistry, etc. I think there is a chance one of Heinen, DeBrusk, Sherwood, and Sprong find an elevated role and run with the opportunity. If not, there's always the chance that Hoglander or Joshua continue to grow their game and contribute to a greater extent than they were able to last season.

 

[jd22]

Yes, that works for me in the google doc link. Much more legible.

What are your metrics for extra forwards?

I agree with your assessment that (at least) one of the newcomers will indeed post good to career high numbers for themselves.

 

[Tables of Stats]

Yes, that works for me in the google doc link. Much more legible.

What are your metrics for extra forwards?

I agree with your assessment that (at least) one of the newcomers will indeed post good to career high numbers for themselves.

For extra forwards I averaged the scoring output of our 15th through 19th lowest scoring forwards from last season and applied that to the number of unfilled man-games. Essentially, I went to the NHL stat page, sorted by points, and averaged off the group of players below 14th.

 

[Tables of Stats]

I've added the new predictions to the main post alongside a new section examining where the predicted offence will put us relative to the league.

The other tabs show predictions that double the weight of a player's worst stats in each of the past three seasons (Pessimistic), double the weight of their best stats in each of the past three seasons (Optimistic), and double the weight on the most recent season (Most Recent). Due to rounding points don't fully align with goals and assists but this is a very minor thing and doesn't affect things by enough to be worth correcting. The extra skater stats still only use the stats from last season, but games played by these players change between predictions.

The goal totals for each prediction are 260, 241, 278, and 269 respectively. These would be good for the 15th, 24th, T7th, and 10th positions in team goal scoring compared to the 2023-24 season. The average of all 4 seasons predicts 263 goals good for 15th in the league last season.

-----

I'm very likely going to go ahead and add other counting stats to these predictions (shots, hits, blocks, PIM, PPG, PPP, SHG, SHP, GWG, and OTG) as they ought to be easy enough to do even with my crude manual methods. I've also reached out looking for defensive metrics I might track. If can think of any I'll have a more complete prediction for the upcoming season.

I'm unlikely to model goalies as I've never seen any method of doing it with any predictive usefulness.

 

[Tables of Stats]

The base prediction sheet now has a lot more stats predicted. I won't be doing this for the variant predictions as It was a fair bit of work.

 

[Tables of Stats]

Here are the team's stats through the season's first five games.

We're tied for 14th in the league in points percentage and 4th in the division, just outside of a wildcard spot. We're T23rd for goals for (14) and T10th for goals against (14). Our PP is T17th at 18.8% while our PK is T14th at 81.3%. Our shots for per game are 19th (28.4) while our shots against are 8th (27.6). Last, but not least, we're 18th in the league in PDO (1.008).

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1yRuTm-AxM4cy_YhRUVUpWdBybh26BkzCgUqbPAKpe2E/edit?gid=37292062#gid=37292062

 

[Tables of Stats]

This is somehow the least inspiring 100+ points pace team I can recall watching. It's a team carried by depth with its stars somewhat quiet. Of course, playing poor hockey and still being on pace to easily make the post season suggests that this team, once it has found its stride, has what it takes to be a threat.

We're 8thin the league in points percentage and 3rd in the division, holding down a divisional playoff spot. We're T17th for goals for (3.00/gp) and 19th for goals against (3.20/gp). Our PP is 23rd at 16.1% while our PK is T8th at 83.3%. Our shots for per game are T19th (28.0) while our shots against are T6th (27.3). Lastly, we're 13th in the league in PDO (1.005).

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1FosHvqXGe5-gjyKyurA1qRUqAVfDww63kBg-ABG8ZhI/edit?gid=0#gid=0

 

[Tables of Stats]

I couldn't do the stats for game 15, but here are the stats for the season's quarter mark.

We have 25 points in 20 games, which is good for T9th in points percentage at 62.5%. This is good for 3rd in the division, two points back of 2nd with two games in hand.

Offense has been a struggle with our 63 goals (3.15 goals per game) being good for only 22nd in the league. On the flip side, defense has been middle of the pack allowing 61 goals (3.05 goals per game) which is good for 16th in the league.

On special teams, our PP is scoring at a 21.3% rate which is good for 11th while our PK is working at a 79.7% rate which is good for 13th in the league. The PK improvement under Tocchet has been very nice to see given our record lows during the dark times.

We're taking 27 shots per game while allowing 28. This is in line with recent seasons.

The all-important PDO is 1.008 which is good for 11th in the league; well above the Oilers who have 0.973 which is 27th.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W1HSQrVgyNnfpiFhoJcrmdVQsN0RdfRanx1DZOnPJaA/edit?gid=0#gid=0

 

[Tables of Stats]

I thought it might be interesting to see how players are tracking against the predictions I made for them at the start of the season. Sprong is included but denoted with a star and bold text format to indicate that he's been traded. I've also added predictions for Brannstrom as he's been an important part of our defence since we acquired him.

We're on pace to finish within 3 goals of my initial baseline prediction. The likes of Garland, DeBrusk, Boeser, Heinen, Suter, Sherwood, and Blueger overperforming are, at least for now, making up for the absence and underperformance of Miller and Pettersson. Likewise, Hughes having added some goal-scoring to his game is also helping us keep pace with my prediction.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1lMC__ANRefwTLtOM_GAfz5yORR4CGA42r5ubznVCzt8/edit?gid=0#gid=0