Tables of Stats
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Hello again HF Canucks, I hope everybody has had a great offseason and is as excited for the upcoming season as I am. With the roster all but set, it is once again time for me to predict the scoring of our roster heading into the season. This season I've made a few small changes to my method to avoid using NHLe.
The method used is as follows:
1) For each player take the average of their last 3 seasons for games played, goals, assists, and points. I used to use AHL data for games played to measure player durability, but I have used only NHL data this season.
2) Fill out the team's predicted roster using 14 forwards and 7 defensemen.
3) Compare the predicted number of man games played to the number of man games played over a full season for both forwards and defence.
4) Fill out the remaining games played with the average stats of the bottom of the roster players.
This model tends to underpredict points for younger players who are still improving and over-predict for older players who may be declining.
These are the base predictions using the method without any additional weighting. Please note, that Aman's 23-24 stats have been counted twice, once in his three-season average and again in the average for the production of forwards 15-19:
This predicts that this roster will score 260 goals next season, 19 less than we scored this past season. For those predicting that Boeser will regress this season note that this prediction expects him to score 27 goals rather than the 40 he scored last season.
The other tabs show predictions that double the weight of a player's worst stats in each of the past three seasons (Pessimistic), double the weight of their best stats in each of the past three seasons (Optimistic), and double the weight on the most recent season (Most Recent). Due to rounding points don't fully align with goals and assists but this is a very minor thing and doesn't affect things by enough to be worth correcting. The extra skater stats still only use the stats from last season, but games played by these players change between predictions.
The goal totals for each prediction are 260, 241, 278, and 269 respectively. These would be good for the 15th, 24th, T7th, and 10th positions in team goal scoring compared to the 2023-24 season. The average of all 4 seasons predicts 263 goals good for 15th in the league last season.
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I will update this before the puck drops on game 1 to factor in any further roster moves such as Blais making the team. I am also considering making three other predictions; one that is optimistic and doubles the weight of the best season for each player, a pessimistic prediction that does the same for each player's worst season, and a recency bias prediction that doubles the weight of the 2023-24 season. Let me know if you'd like to see these predictions.
The method used is as follows:
1) For each player take the average of their last 3 seasons for games played, goals, assists, and points. I used to use AHL data for games played to measure player durability, but I have used only NHL data this season.
2) Fill out the team's predicted roster using 14 forwards and 7 defensemen.
3) Compare the predicted number of man games played to the number of man games played over a full season for both forwards and defence.
4) Fill out the remaining games played with the average stats of the bottom of the roster players.
This model tends to underpredict points for younger players who are still improving and over-predict for older players who may be declining.
These are the base predictions using the method without any additional weighting. Please note, that Aman's 23-24 stats have been counted twice, once in his three-season average and again in the average for the production of forwards 15-19:
Code:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1lMC__ANRefwTLtOM_GAfz5yORR4CGA42r5ubznVCzt8/edit?gid=0#gid=0This predicts that this roster will score 260 goals next season, 19 less than we scored this past season. For those predicting that Boeser will regress this season note that this prediction expects him to score 27 goals rather than the 40 he scored last season.
The other tabs show predictions that double the weight of a player's worst stats in each of the past three seasons (Pessimistic), double the weight of their best stats in each of the past three seasons (Optimistic), and double the weight on the most recent season (Most Recent). Due to rounding points don't fully align with goals and assists but this is a very minor thing and doesn't affect things by enough to be worth correcting. The extra skater stats still only use the stats from last season, but games played by these players change between predictions.
The goal totals for each prediction are 260, 241, 278, and 269 respectively. These would be good for the 15th, 24th, T7th, and 10th positions in team goal scoring compared to the 2023-24 season. The average of all 4 seasons predicts 263 goals good for 15th in the league last season.
------
I will update this before the puck drops on game 1 to factor in any further roster moves such as Blais making the team. I am also considering making three other predictions; one that is optimistic and doubles the weight of the best season for each player, a pessimistic prediction that does the same for each player's worst season, and a recency bias prediction that doubles the weight of the 2023-24 season. Let me know if you'd like to see these predictions.
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