Player Discussion Tables of Stats' 2024-25 Stats Thread
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I don't know if it's possible with this format, but if so: it might be a thought to lock Column 1 so people can see what player it is referring to as they scroll right.
Strikes me as a bit of an underpowered offensive squad, but I suspect Heinen, Sherwood and Debrusk are a bit under-estimated. We shall see.
Strikes me as a bit of an underpowered offensive squad, but I suspect Heinen, Sherwood and Debrusk are a bit under-estimated. We shall see.
Tables of Stats
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Column 1 is locked on my end. I wonder if it's a forum issue with the preview? I added the link in plain text so people can read the sheet directly. I hope that helps with readability.
As for our scoring, this model doesn't account for player role, TOI, chemistry, etc. I think there is a chance one of Heinen, DeBrusk, Sherwood, and Sprong find an elevated role and run with the opportunity. If not, there's always the chance that Hoglander or Joshua continue to grow their game and contribute to a greater extent than they were able to last season.
Yes, that works for me in the google doc link. Much more legible.
What are your metrics for extra forwards?
I agree with your assessment that (at least) one of the newcomers will indeed post good to career high numbers for themselves.
What are your metrics for extra forwards?
I agree with your assessment that (at least) one of the newcomers will indeed post good to career high numbers for themselves.
Tables of Stats
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For extra forwards I averaged the scoring output of our 15th through 19th lowest scoring forwards from last season and applied that to the number of unfilled man-games. Essentially, I went to the NHL stat page, sorted by points, and averaged off the group of players below 14th.
Tables of Stats
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I've added the new predictions to the main post alongside a new section examining where the predicted offence will put us relative to the league.
I'm very likely going to go ahead and add other counting stats to these predictions (shots, hits, blocks, PIM, PPG, PPP, SHG, SHP, GWG, and OTG) as they ought to be easy enough to do even with my crude manual methods. I've also reached out looking for defensive metrics I might track. If can think of any I'll have a more complete prediction for the upcoming season.
I'm unlikely to model goalies as I've never seen any method of doing it with any predictive usefulness.
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I'm very likely going to go ahead and add other counting stats to these predictions (shots, hits, blocks, PIM, PPG, PPP, SHG, SHP, GWG, and OTG) as they ought to be easy enough to do even with my crude manual methods. I've also reached out looking for defensive metrics I might track. If can think of any I'll have a more complete prediction for the upcoming season.
I'm unlikely to model goalies as I've never seen any method of doing it with any predictive usefulness.
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Tables of Stats
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The base prediction sheet now has a lot more stats predicted. I won't be doing this for the variant predictions as It was a fair bit of work.
Tables of Stats
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Here are the team's stats through the season's first five games.
We're tied for 14th in the league in points percentage and 4th in the division, just outside of a wildcard spot. We're T23rd for goals for (14) and T10th for goals against (14). Our PP is T17th at 18.8% while our PK is T14th at 81.3%. Our shots for per game are 19th (28.4) while our shots against are 8th (27.6). Last, but not least, we're 18th in the league in PDO (1.008).
We're tied for 14th in the league in points percentage and 4th in the division, just outside of a wildcard spot. We're T23rd for goals for (14) and T10th for goals against (14). Our PP is T17th at 18.8% while our PK is T14th at 81.3%. Our shots for per game are 19th (28.4) while our shots against are 8th (27.6). Last, but not least, we're 18th in the league in PDO (1.008).
Code:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1yRuTm-AxM4cy_YhRUVUpWdBybh26BkzCgUqbPAKpe2E/edit?gid=37292062#gid=37292062
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Tables of Stats
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This is somehow the least inspiring 100+ points pace team I can recall watching. It's a team carried by depth with its stars somewhat quiet. Of course, playing poor hockey and still being on pace to easily make the post season suggests that this team, once it has found its stride, has what it takes to be a threat.
We're 8thin the league in points percentage and 3rd in the division, holding down a divisional playoff spot. We're T17th for goals for (3.00/gp) and 19th for goals against (3.20/gp). Our PP is 23rd at 16.1% while our PK is T8th at 83.3%. Our shots for per game are T19th (28.0) while our shots against are T6th (27.3). Lastly, we're 13th in the league in PDO (1.005).
We're 8thin the league in points percentage and 3rd in the division, holding down a divisional playoff spot. We're T17th for goals for (3.00/gp) and 19th for goals against (3.20/gp). Our PP is 23rd at 16.1% while our PK is T8th at 83.3%. Our shots for per game are T19th (28.0) while our shots against are T6th (27.3). Lastly, we're 13th in the league in PDO (1.005).
Code:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1FosHvqXGe5-gjyKyurA1qRUqAVfDww63kBg-ABG8ZhI/edit?gid=0#gid=0Tables of Stats
Registered User
I couldn't do the stats for game 15, but here are the stats for the season's quarter mark.
We have 25 points in 20 games, which is good for T9th in points percentage at 62.5%. This is good for 3rd in the division, two points back of 2nd with two games in hand.
Offense has been a struggle with our 63 goals (3.15 goals per game) being good for only 22nd in the league. On the flip side, defense has been middle of the pack allowing 61 goals (3.05 goals per game) which is good for 16th in the league.
On special teams, our PP is scoring at a 21.3% rate which is good for 11th while our PK is working at a 79.7% rate which is good for 13th in the league. The PK improvement under Tocchet has been very nice to see given our record lows during the dark times.
We're taking 27 shots per game while allowing 28. This is in line with recent seasons.
The all-important PDO is 1.008 which is good for 11th in the league; well above the Oilers who have 0.973 which is 27th.
We have 25 points in 20 games, which is good for T9th in points percentage at 62.5%. This is good for 3rd in the division, two points back of 2nd with two games in hand.
Offense has been a struggle with our 63 goals (3.15 goals per game) being good for only 22nd in the league. On the flip side, defense has been middle of the pack allowing 61 goals (3.05 goals per game) which is good for 16th in the league.
On special teams, our PP is scoring at a 21.3% rate which is good for 11th while our PK is working at a 79.7% rate which is good for 13th in the league. The PK improvement under Tocchet has been very nice to see given our record lows during the dark times.
We're taking 27 shots per game while allowing 28. This is in line with recent seasons.
The all-important PDO is 1.008 which is good for 11th in the league; well above the Oilers who have 0.973 which is 27th.
Code:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W1HSQrVgyNnfpiFhoJcrmdVQsN0RdfRanx1DZOnPJaA/edit?gid=0#gid=0Tables of Stats
Registered User
I thought it might be interesting to see how players are tracking against the predictions I made for them at the start of the season. Sprong is included but denoted with a star and bold text format to indicate that he's been traded. I've also added predictions for Brannstrom as he's been an important part of our defence since we acquired him.
We're on pace to finish within 3 goals of my initial baseline prediction. The likes of Garland, DeBrusk, Boeser, Heinen, Suter, Sherwood, and Blueger overperforming are, at least for now, making up for the absence and underperformance of Miller and Pettersson. Likewise, Hughes having added some goal-scoring to his game is also helping us keep pace with my prediction.
We're on pace to finish within 3 goals of my initial baseline prediction. The likes of Garland, DeBrusk, Boeser, Heinen, Suter, Sherwood, and Blueger overperforming are, at least for now, making up for the absence and underperformance of Miller and Pettersson. Likewise, Hughes having added some goal-scoring to his game is also helping us keep pace with my prediction.
Code:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1lMC__ANRefwTLtOM_GAfz5yORR4CGA42r5ubznVCzt8/edit?gid=0#gid=0Tables of Stats
Registered User
I had to do game 26 for this one as the NHL stats page wasn't updating with everything I needed.
We have 32 points out of a possible 52, which is good for T9th in points percentage at 61.5%. This is good for 3rd in the division, tied with the Avs and Oilers but with at least a game in hand over each.
The offense has picked up, now sitting at 85 goals (3.24 goals per game) bringing us to T9th in the league. On the flip side, we've been allowing more goals, and are now at 82 goals against (3.15 goals per game) which has us sitting tied with the Senators at 23rd in the league.
Our PP has held onto that 11th position but has risen to 23.1%. The PK is still just average at an 80% kill rate which is good for 14th in the league. Our special teams being average is going to hurt the team's ability to be a deep post-season threat but should be good enough to make the show.
We're taking 26.8 shots per game (29th) while allowing 28.6 (T16th). We're scoring on 12.2% of our shots (T4th). The trend of taking fewer but higher-value shots seems to be a feature of Tocchet's system.
The all-important PDO is 1.007 which is good for 12th in the league.
We have 32 points out of a possible 52, which is good for T9th in points percentage at 61.5%. This is good for 3rd in the division, tied with the Avs and Oilers but with at least a game in hand over each.
The offense has picked up, now sitting at 85 goals (3.24 goals per game) bringing us to T9th in the league. On the flip side, we've been allowing more goals, and are now at 82 goals against (3.15 goals per game) which has us sitting tied with the Senators at 23rd in the league.
Our PP has held onto that 11th position but has risen to 23.1%. The PK is still just average at an 80% kill rate which is good for 14th in the league. Our special teams being average is going to hurt the team's ability to be a deep post-season threat but should be good enough to make the show.
We're taking 26.8 shots per game (29th) while allowing 28.6 (T16th). We're scoring on 12.2% of our shots (T4th). The trend of taking fewer but higher-value shots seems to be a feature of Tocchet's system.
The all-important PDO is 1.007 which is good for 12th in the league.
Code:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1MVa0BLIwcFdyT6L9EPpkOmkuimyfKNZeIya6PRbruPc/edit?gid=0#gid=0Tables of Stats
Registered User
Game 30 of what has been a very up-and-down season. It seems like this team is either firing on all cylinders or failing to even get out of the pits.
We have 37 points out of a possible 60, which is good for 12th in points percentage at 61.7%. This is good for 4th in the division, a point behind the Oilers with a game in hand.
The offense dipped, now sitting at 96 goals (3.20 goals per game) which is good for 12th in the league. The see-saw has once again tilted toward defense and our 93 goals against (3.07 goals per game) has us tied with the Ducks at 14th in the league.
Our PP is still steady scoring at a 23.3% rate which is good for 9th in the league. The PK has also stayed roughly even succeeding 80.4% of the time to hold the 13th position in the league. Like the standings suggest the Canucks, as things stand, are a very middle-of-the-pack team which is likely where we'd have predicted them had last season not happened and created high expectations.
We're taking 26.2 shots per game (28th) while allowing 28.5 (15th). We're scoring on the same 12.2% of our shots (T4th). I think we'd all like to see the team, and especially Pettersson, shoot more but we're elite at converting the shots we do take and I can see the value in holding the puck longer and looking for the high-percentage play.
The all-important PDO is 1.012 which is good for T9th in the league.
We have 37 points out of a possible 60, which is good for 12th in points percentage at 61.7%. This is good for 4th in the division, a point behind the Oilers with a game in hand.
The offense dipped, now sitting at 96 goals (3.20 goals per game) which is good for 12th in the league. The see-saw has once again tilted toward defense and our 93 goals against (3.07 goals per game) has us tied with the Ducks at 14th in the league.
Our PP is still steady scoring at a 23.3% rate which is good for 9th in the league. The PK has also stayed roughly even succeeding 80.4% of the time to hold the 13th position in the league. Like the standings suggest the Canucks, as things stand, are a very middle-of-the-pack team which is likely where we'd have predicted them had last season not happened and created high expectations.
We're taking 26.2 shots per game (28th) while allowing 28.5 (15th). We're scoring on the same 12.2% of our shots (T4th). I think we'd all like to see the team, and especially Pettersson, shoot more but we're elite at converting the shots we do take and I can see the value in holding the puck longer and looking for the high-percentage play.
The all-important PDO is 1.012 which is good for T9th in the league.
Code:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/13SK-R-yIPyAshEKVxpPg4wAbLuO7V0yTaXVA3SItMkM/edit?gid=0#gid=0
