Speculation: Summer 2018 Roster Discussion Part III

[pappaf2]

Well, Melnyk can't instruct DW to do that. That doesn't mean that Melnyk wouldn't be happy about the deal and respond by not making Karlsson available to the Sharks or even trading him to a competitor of ours. If you don't think Melnyk won't hold a grudge then you're not paying attention too much to them. They will and they do.

I see nothing in these quotes below that indicate the Sens wouldn't do business with Florida
‘He’ll be embraced by our team and their wives and girlfriends’: Panthers’ GM happy to finally get Mike Hoffman

That story likely shrunk the marketplace and that was why the Senators had to take what they could get in this deal. Panthers general manager Dale Tallon said he never could never find a fit in his talks with Dorion because Ottawa wanted players in return and the Panthers weren’t prepared to go that route.
“We had been contacted last week and we kind of let it lie because we thought it was too big a price to pay,” Tallon said in a conference call. “I was contacted (Monday) night by San Jose, asking if I had any interest. We looked at the deal and we felt that this would be perfect for our team.

Tallon added: “I know what Pierre was asking for and I don’t think we really had a match. We kind of put it aside and we rekindled it late (Monday) … It wasn’t the right fit for the players.”

 

[Gilligans Island]

Tallon is specifically quoted saying that he had talks with Dorian about trading for Hoffman but the price (roster players) was to high. Sounds like the Sens would have traded him in the division, the price just might have been higher.

That's exactly what I read - which is customary. The asking price for trading within a division usually higher.

That Ottawa (or Melnyk) is holding a grudge and would not trade with the Sharks is an assumption fueled by a narrative created by the media.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

Guess we have to wait for him to pass PDB's 10 game tryout to get into the circle of trust before we can move Tierney... Using the most up to date translation factors I could find, Suomela's 60 points in 59 games in SM-Liiga last year equal a 36 point season in the NHL (assuming 82 games played). Tierney had 40 points so I am willing to take a risk on moving him for a better player and letting Suomela fill his role as the difference is likely to be negligible and Suomela is going to cost about 1/3 of the AAV of Tierney.

It's going to take more than 10 games for him to prove himself in the NHL if he's even worthy of that opportunity. Tierney's value is not likely to change all that much between now and the trade deadline and I doubt that the right d-man is available that I would be willing to trade Tierney at this point. We have an open 4C spot. The forwards that they brought in can compete for that spot and show themselves what they're made of and they can move around a lot of the parts in their bottom six to where if he shows that he's way too good for that role that they can't move him up and someone else down. Labanc still has a lot to prove at evens so he is susceptible to being relegated to the 4th line if his play continues into next season.

 

[Lebanezer]

Proving yourself there is not the same as proving yourself in the NHL. Even if it was, just put him in the middle on the 4th line and if he impresses, move him up then consider trading Tierney.



Every team in their division got calls from Dorion. That doesn't mean he wasn't told by his owner to trade him outside of the division as Craig Custance had reported. That smile that Dorion gave when he was asked that question was him pretty much admitting that to be the case but his answer was the dodge answer that he has to give to not throw his boss under the bus.

Dorion said he knew San Jose was gonna move Hoffman because of Hoffman's history with Deboer starting at 12:50. Dorion reiterated at that time that they spoke to everyone GM in their division.

Does anyone know what happened with Hoffman and Deboer?

 

[STL Shark]

You're not gonna win that argument. Too many things factoring in...things you need to know before you decide that a player is bad because of advanced stats alone. Just look at what it did to Florida. Ownership thought that advanced stats are the next big thing, "promoted" who wants nothing to do with advanced stats, promoted Rowe and hired some kids who know numbers but not hockey. Tallon built a team ready to compete and they destroyed it all. Amazingly, Tallon recovered pretty quickly but Florida would be a different team with Tallon always in charge of hockey operations and Gallant still coaching. You can also ask the babyface from Toronto. Based on advanced stats he thought it would be a good idea to let Kessel go for cheap. Rutherford said thank you very much.

Kessel's possession stats in Toronto (while not elite) were actually not bad relative to the rest of the team. He just happened to play on a garbage team that even he could not elevate. Like I said, the advanced stats are not the end all be all (must be mixed with counting stats and eye test), but they are a very good preliminary way to project trends in a player's performance and overall impact. If someone's possession numbers are consistently declining relative to that of the rest of the team, it likely means their play is on the decline. Additionally, if someone had a sharp increase in scoring, but their possession numbers are still bad it is more than likely a lot to do with puck luck as opposed to an increase in their level of play. You are right on one thing though, this argument is dumb as no amount of banter is going to change either of our opinions on the issue so no use in cluttering the board with it.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

Dorion said he knew San Jose was gonna move Hoffman because of Hoffman's history with Deboer starting at 12:50. Dorion reiterated at that time that they spoke to everyone GM in their division.

Does anyone know what happened with Hoffman and Deboer?

I'm not saying they didn't talk to the teams within the division. What likely happened is that Dorion fielded offers from everyone including their division and then after informing his boss of that, was told to not trade him in division. The history excuse with DeBoer is quite a reach. Hoffman was 17 when he got called up and saw six games under DeBoer. He didn't make the team the next year, didn't get picked up by anyone in the OHL then transferred to the Q.

 

[STL Shark]

It's going to take more than 10 games for him to prove himself in the NHL if he's even worthy of that opportunity. Tierney's value is not likely to change all that much between now and the trade deadline and I doubt that the right d-man is available that I would be willing to trade Tierney at this point. We have an open 4C spot. The forwards that they brought in can compete for that spot and show themselves what they're made of and they can move around a lot of the parts in their bottom six to where if he shows that he's way too good for that role that they can't move him up and someone else down. Labanc still has a lot to prove at evens so he is susceptible to being relegated to the 4th line if his play continues into next season.

If they aren't willing to trade Tierney, then there is no feasible way to upgrade this roster without trading a player currently in the top 6. And if this is the lineup we are icing, then may as well just fast forward to next draft as that will be the next time the Sharks will be interesting again as this is a team not bad enough to draft a franchise changer in the draft and not good enough to win anything of substance. Sometimes you have to take the fan goggles off and part ways with players you like in order to make the team better. Finding a depth center is not hard (look at how easy Fehr was to get last year). Tierney is coming off a career year so strike while the iron is hot and avoid potential regression after dishing out a sizable contract that no one will want to take a la Victor Rask.

 

[TheWayToRefJose]

There doesn't need to be a report or a quote that they're mad at DW. There already has been reports that Melnyk told Dorion to not trade Hoffman within their division and, because of DW, Hoffman is in their division. Of course they're not happy with that and of course that's plenty of reason for someone like Melnyk to not trade with the Sharks regarding Karlsson. All of that is rational and based on credible reports so don't tell me nonsense about thinking rationally when it comes to Ottawa. Ottawa doesn't hold any special meaning. It's just a realistic view on the situation based on the evidence that's out there. That's the most rational thing someone can do. You're just pretending none of that exists.

You do know that there is no evidence to support that Dorion is or isn't willing to deal with DW anymore, right? You may be able to speculate that, but no one knows besides DW and Dorion. There's just as much "evidence" to speculate that their professional relationship is fine as there is suggesting that it isn't.

 

[Maladroit]

Dorion said he knew San Jose was gonna move Hoffman because of Hoffman's history with Deboer starting at 12:50. Dorion reiterated at that time that they spoke to everyone GM in their division.

Does anyone know what happened with Hoffman and Deboer?

Hoffman was cut from DeBoer's Kitchener Rangers in 2007 and no OHL team picked him up afterwards so he was basically exiled to the QMJHL. Not sure about the details beyond that. Sounds like it was a case of a player not being perceived as good enough to make the team but maybe there was some bad blood between him and DeBoer at the time.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

I see nothing in these quotes below that indicate the Sens wouldn't do business with Florida
‘He’ll be embraced by our team and their wives and girlfriends’: Panthers’ GM happy to finally get Mike Hoffman

Again, what likely happened is that Dorion fielded offers from all teams and informed his boss of the situation. Melnyk then told him not to trade Hoffman within the division.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

You do know that there is no evidence to support that Dorion is or isn't willing to deal with DW anymore, right? You may be able to speculate that, but no one knows besides DW and Dorion. There's just as much "evidence" to speculate that their professional relationship is fine as there is suggesting that it isn't.

Dorion may or may not be willing to deal with DW. If his boss tells him that he's not going to do a deal with them then they're not going to do a deal. Also, no there isn't as much evidence to speculate that their professional relationship with Ottawa is fine.

 

[Hinterland]

Dorion said he knew San Jose was gonna move Hoffman because of Hoffman's history with Deboer starting at 12:50. Dorion reiterated at that time that they spoke to everyone GM in their division.

Does anyone know what happened with Hoffman and Deboer?

Dates back to when they were with the Kitchener Rangers. DeBoer really didn't like Hoffman and the Rangers waived Hoffman after only a few games. No idea exactly why though.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

Something was there back when they were with the Kitchener Rangers. DeBoer really didn't like Hoffman and waived him after only a few games. No idea exactly why though.

It was because at that time, Hoffman wasn't putting in the effort.

 

[Hinterland]

It was because at that time, Hoffman wasn't putting in the effort.

If that's all then there would be no reason for hard feelings though. He was a kid...two years pre draft.

 

[Gilligans Island]

Ugh.

This guy reported JT to the Leafs on Saturday night

 

[STL Shark]

Dates back to when they were with the Kitchener Rangers. DeBoer really didn't like Hoffman and the Rangers waived Hoffman after only a few games. No idea exactly why though.

I bet he would have been really good here given that. We all know guys PDB had in Kitchener that he liked were flops here (Boedker). Maybe the ones he didn't like would actually turn out well here.

 

[Lebanezer]

I'm not saying they didn't talk to the teams within the division. What likely happened is that Dorion fielded offers from everyone including their division and then after informing his boss of that, was told to not trade him in division. The history excuse with DeBoer is quite a reach. Hoffman was 17 when he got called up and saw six games under DeBoer. He didn't make the team the next year, didn't get picked up by anyone in the OHL then transferred to the Q.

This is all speculation on your part. You don't know what happened with Dorion and Melnyk, you don't know what happened with Hoffman and Deboer. You're entitled to speculate obviously, but given all the info that we have, I don't think there's any reason why the Sharks can't make a deal for Karlsson.

 

[STL Shark]

Ugh.

This guy reported JT to the Leafs on Saturday night

Really not all that upset as I don't think it makes a lot of sense to spend a ton of assets for Karlsson when the forward group needs a lot of work. Hopefully this will hurt Vegas' depth.

 

[pappaf2]

Dorion may or may not be willing to deal with DW. If his boss tells him that he's not going to do a deal with them then they're not going to do a deal. Also, no there isn't as much evidence to speculate that their professional relationship with Ottawa is fine.

Your entire premise is total speculation.

We provide evidence that Florida and Ottawa talked trade on Hoffman and Florida declined due the price. Dorion states he knew DW would trade Hoffman but he traded him to the sharks anyway.

You say basically that the evidence isnt as valuable as your speculation.

 

[JoeThorntonsRooster]

Ugh.

This guy reported JT to the Leafs on Saturday night

Yup, and this one is happening too. Way too much smoke around EK to Vegas just as there was around Tavares to Toronto in the 24 hours before it happened. This off-season went about as terribly as any of us could have imagined.

 

[one2gamble]

sharks are f***ed....should be a fun ride

 

[Maladroit]

We should just keep our powder dry. Maybe add someone like Pacioretty or Skinner if the price is low and kick the can down the road on extending either of them until we get a better idea of whether Seguin or Duchene will be available in the UFA market next summer. We're not in a great spot right now but we should certainly still make the playoffs in a weak division.

 

[pappaf2]

Obviously if EK goes to Vegas it will prove PF's point that DW is on Dorian's naughty list.

 

[Jargon]

Yup, and this one is happening too. Way too much smoke around EK to Vegas just as there was around Tavares to Toronto in the 24 hours before it happened. This off-season went about as terribly as any of us could have imagined.

Well.

Panarin?

 

[Pinkfloyd]

If that's all then there would be no reason for hard feelings though. He was a kid...two years pre draft.

Yeah, that's why I don't buy the DeBoer history as a real reason.

This is all speculation on your part. You don't know what happened with Dorion and Melnyk, you don't know what happened with Hoffman and Deboer. You're entitled to speculate obviously, but given all the info that we have, I don't think there's any reason why the Sharks can't make a deal for Karlsson.

Speculation based off of credible reports that Melnyk told Dorion not to make a deal within the division. That's a reason why the Sharks probably won't make a deal for Karlsson. It may not end up being the reason but it certainly is a reason to where one shouldn't say there isn't any reason why they couldn't. That is a reason why they couldn't. Not having the assets or will to bring him in may be another but I think my speculation is reasonable based on what transpired in that deal and the things that led to it.

Your entire premise is total speculation.

We provide evidence that Florida and Ottawa talked trade on Hoffman and Florida declined due the price. Dorion states he knew DW would trade Hoffman but he traded him to the sharks anyway.

You say basically that the evidence isnt as valuable as your speculation.

You provide evidence without any real context and present it as if Dorion is telling the entire truth when we both know that isn't the case. I never denied that they talked trade on Hoffman. You're either ignoring what I've been saying or not understanding it. Just because Dorion talked deals with Florida or anyone else in the division doesn't mean that Melnyk, upon being informed of the market by Dorion, didn't tell him to not trade him in the division. That's very likely what happened and the video really only cements that being the case with how Dorion responded when directly asked if Melnyk told him not to trade within the division.

 

[pappaf2]

You provide evidence without any real context and present it as if Dorion is telling the entire truth when we both know that isn't the case. I never denied that they talked trade on Hoffman. You're either ignoring what I've been saying or not understanding it. Just because Dorion talked deals with Florida or anyone else in the division doesn't mean that Melnyk, upon being informed of the market by Dorion, didn't tell him to not trade him in the division. That's very likely what happened and the video really only cements that being the case with how Dorion responded when directly asked if Melnyk told him not to trade within the division.

Obviously he may not be telling to whole truth but all we have is the evidence of what happened in the news reports. The evidence says that Florida had the opportunity to trade and Florida turned it down. Maybe Dorian and Tallon are not telling the whole truth. Your speculation may actually be what happened but you can't convict on speculation alone.