Blue Jays Discussion: Steve Pearce: comeback machine

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Diamond Joe Quimby

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Aug 14, 2010
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So it looks like Vlad as expected is struggling in Dunedin (SSS), but god damn is Bichette ever impressive (SSS).

How could anyone claim he's not a Top-5 prospect in baseball if he even comes close to keeping this up?

Vlad will settle in at 115-120 wRC+ at A+ when all is said and done, I imagine. Looking at the K's (8 in 49 AB's, vs. 6 walks) and some of the outs, its clear he's not getting overwhelmed by the heightened competition. I would actually encourage people to follow the Dunedin games on twitter and on the milb gameday (and radio, when available). Its actually amazing how many of Bo\Vlad's outs are line drive outs :laugh:. Its kind of nuts.

As for Bo, his main competition to break into the top five/ten (other than Vlad who will probably be #1) are Gleyber, Rosario, Eloy, Devers, Rodgers, Robles, Senzel and Acuna. I don't think Senzel belongs in that group, but he's already top ten, and has hit well enough that they wouldn't drop him.
 

TOGuy14

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Dec 30, 2010
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Rumors out there that Yankees are pursuing Stanton. Then there are the forever rumored Harper free agency links

If that team ends up with an outfield of Harper, Stanton and Judge we may as well give up on the next decade..,
 

Woodman19

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Rumors out there that Yankees are pursuing Stanton. Then there are the forever rumored Harper free agency links

If that team ends up with an outfield of Harper, Stanton and Judge we may as well give up on the next decade..,

HUGE risk with a player signed until 2027, injuries and decline in play turns that deal into an asset for the Jays (while on the Yankees).
 

hoc123

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The Blue Jays updated top ten list is out at Baseball America

Baseball America said:
After back-to-back American League Championship Series appearances, the Blue Jays haven't been able to repeat the magic of the last two seasons. A 6-17 start put Toronto in the hole, and while it has played better than .500 ball since then, it still entered the All-Star break in last place in AL East.

Blue Jays Midseason Top 10
1. Vladimir Guerrero Jr., 3B
2. Bo Bichette, SS
3. Anthony Alford, OF
4. Lourdes Gurriel, SS
5. Max Pentecost, C/1B
6. Conner Greene, RHP
7. Justin Maese, RHP
8. Sean Reid-Foley, RHP
9. T.J. Zeuch, RHP
10. Logan Warmoth, SS

The struggle is real in the Jays lineup, where Jose Bautista has declined with age, and the departure of Edwin Encarnacion has cost Toronto power, presence and swagger. While Justin Smoak has made up for it a bit with a career-best season, the Jays have gotten little production from their outfield, DH or even up the middle, where Troy Tulowitzki's days as a star appear over.

The Jays brightest spot has been Marcus Stroman's continued emergence as an ace, but three disabled list trips by Aaron Sanchez and poor seasons from Marco Estrada and Francisco Liriano have led to an inconsistent rotation. The bullpen, other than young closer Roberto Osuna, has been a consistent source of problems.

The Jays don't have easy answers, but they do have a farm system that has taken a significant step forward this year, even as some prospects at higher levels step back. The future left side of the infield has burst on the scene in its first year of full-season ball, with third baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and shortstop Bo Bichette looking like future stars.

1. Vladimir Guerrero Jr., 3B
High Class A Dunedin
Age: 18

Guerrero grew up with hype thanks to his name and Hall of Fame-caliber father. The first time Jays officials saw him, one remembers, there were 40 scouts and observers on hand to watch the 14-year-old take batting practice. Guerrero has improved his thick body since then, gained man strength, improved significantly on the defensive side and continued to develop an impact bat. His fast hands mean he can catch up to any fastball, and he controls the strike zone exceptionally well for a teenager. Guerrero has work to do defensively, but some scouts see him being playable and a future fringe-average defender at third.

2. Bo Bichette, SS
High Class A Dunedin
Age: 19

Bichette dropped into the second round of the 2016 draft and has used that fall to fuel his pro career. He plays with a chip on his shoulder and has the tools to make teams pay for passing on him. Bichette put up a historic .384/.448/.623 line at low Class A Lansing to earn a promotion, and club officials have been impressed with his instincts, feel, and work ethic to stay at shortstop.

3. Anthony Alford, OF
Disabled list
Age: 22

Dogged by injuries in 2016, Alford came into the year healthy and got off to a strong start in Double-A, hitting .356 in April. He earned his first big league promotion and got his first hit May 23, but he broke the hamate bone in his left wrist and missed six weeks. Scouts still see plus speed, outfield range and solid power to go with a sound hitting approach, but he needs to stay healthy.

4. Lourdes Gurriel, SS
Double-A New Hampshire
Age: 23

Gurriel impressed big league manager John Gibbons in spring training with his athleticism and offensive potential, then injured both his thumb and his hamstring. After opening the season on the disabled list, Gurriel went 1-for-2 in his U.S. debut before he injured the same hamstring again and missed two more months. He has played only 22 games and is still getting in rhythm at Double-A.

5. Max Pentecost, C/1B
High Class A Dunedin
Age: 24

Pentecost had multiple shoulder surgeries and didn't catch as a pro the last two years. But the 2014 first-round pick caught 14 games in the first half and caught well, according to scouts, even flashing above-average arm strength. If he can handle the rigors and grind of catching more full-time he has standout potential, with above-average hitting ability and power.

6. Conner Greene, RHP
Double-A New Hampshire
Age: 22

Greene remains an enigma with one of the minors best arms and little ability to use it. His fastball is up to 102 mph with a 93-94 mph two-seamer, but he doesn't repeat his delivery enough to command his fastball and remains inconsistent with his secondary stuff. The result has been 64 strikeouts and 52 walks in 90.2 innings this season.

7. Justin Maese, RHP
Double-A New Hampshire
Age: 23

Maese has less velocity than Greene but offers excellent sink on his low-90s fastball and has improved his slider to give him a swing-and-miss pitch. The 20-year-old excited club officials with his frame and athleticism as an amateur, and he's continued to gain size and strength as a pro, adding power to his two best pitches.

8. Sean Reid-Foley, RHP
Double-A New Hampshire
Age: 21
Reid-Foley has lost a bit of steam and again has pro scouts wondering if he's a reliever rather than starter. His command and stuff have been inconsistent from start to start, but at his best he still pitches at 94 mph and reaches 97 with his fastball while flashing a plus curveball.

9. T.J. Zeuch, RHP
High Class A Dunedin
Age: 21
The 2016 first-rounder was young for his draft class and still needs to get stronger. That said, Zeuch has stayed healthy this season and flashed four average pitches. The Jays hope he adds velocity to his 89-93 mph fastball and gains consistency with his slider and curveball, but he's off to a strong start.

10. Logan Warmoth, SS
Short-Season Vancouver
Age: 21

Warmoth has solid across-the-board tools as an offensive middle infielder with the arm strength and just enough range to remain at shortstop long term. They Jays liked that profile enough to draft him No. 22 overall from North Carolina. Warmoth has pull power, feel for the barrel and a polished approach to go with winning makeup that pushed him into the first round. He could move quickly as a pro.

RISING

LHP Ryan Borucki has increased his fastball velocity, consistently touching 96-97 mph while pitching at 93-94. He also has feel for an above-average changeup. If his breaking ball gets to average, he'll be a starter.

C Danny Jansen finally stayed healthy and has shown an above-average contact-oriented hitting ability to go with average catch-and-throw skills while advancing to Double-A.

RHP Jordan Romano, who pitched for Italy in the World Baseball Classic, has pitched well in a starting role for Dunedin and has a power arm that likely will fit in middle relief in the future.

FALLING

Scouts who believed in 1B Rowdy Tellez before the season still believe, but the first baseman hasn't produced at Triple-A Buffalo, though one scout called him the king of hard outs.

SS Richard Urena has above-average tools at times but flashes them less consistently and may fit best as a utility infielder because of an inconsistent bat.

RHP Jon Harris has fallen victim to the longball, and while he's adjusted a bit of late, he has hit a major roadblock in Double-A.

Scouts report OF Harold Ramirez no longer runs above-average, has regressed at the plate and is barely holding onto prospect status.

HURTING

Maese hasn't pitched since the end of May with what initially was reported as a slight shoulder injury and has been sighted at the club's Dunedin, Fla., complex. The severity of the injury was unclear.

C Reese McGuire wasn't hitting prior to his injury, then had surgery in May to repair a torn meniscus in his right knee.

GRADUATING

RHP Danny Barnes, as expected, has nailed down a bullpen spot and is one of the pen's few bright spots.

I would say Pentecost and Gurriel is too high and Reid Foley+Jansen is too low but it seems like a good list. Only thing is what were they talking about with Zeuch :laugh:, he's been injured for two months now.
 

canucksfan

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The Blue Jays updated top ten list is out at Baseball America



I would say Pentecost and Gurriel is too high and Reid Foley+Jansen is too low but it seems like a good list. Only thing is what were they talking about with Zeuch :laugh:, he's been injured for two months now.

Thanks for posting.

Surprised Pentecost is still rated that highly. If he can't stay at catcher his value drops significantly.
 

phillipmike

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Oct 27, 2009
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Rumors out there that Yankees are pursuing Stanton. Then there are the forever rumored Harper free agency links

If that team ends up with an outfield of Harper, Stanton and Judge we may as well give up on the next decade..,

Harper could cost 30-40M, Stanton cost 295M over the next 10 years and Judge could cost 20M per around his arb time. If Miami retains on Stanton to make him a 20M player that is 70-80M on 3 players.

Add in 60M on Ellsbury, Tanaka and Chapman then the Yankees could be spending 130-140M on 6 players and that is playing it safe with the numbers. The Luxury Tax is around 206M in 2019 - something the Yankees said they want to get under. That leaves them with 66-76M on 19 players. Around that time Betances and Sanchez will need new deals too.

I doubt the Yankees have the money to chase Harper and Stanton but i would welcome them offering Harper and Stanton 10 year deals. Those long term deals are killers - potentially 2 or 3 of them would be insane.
 

Eyedea

The Legend Continues
Jan 29, 2012
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Greene, Maese and Pentecost too high, SRF and Zeuch too low, Jansen and Pearson nonexistent. But these prospect sites at least shouldn't complain about a lack of depth behind Vlad/Bo/AA.

Also Barnes one of the few bright spots in the pen? I count six.
 

Discoverer

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Apr 11, 2012
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Also Barnes one of the few bright spots in the pen? I count six.

Yeah, that's a weird one. The Jays pen is littered with guys having excellent seasons.

And please, for the love of god, let's not turn this into a "Trade him!" vs. "Keep him!" thing, but:

Roberto Osuna now has 2.1 fWAR. Kenley Jansen and Craig Kimbrel lead all relievers at 2.2. Osuna now has a better FIP and xFIP than Jansen.
 

SeaOfBlue

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Aug 1, 2013
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Yeah, that's a weird one. The Jays pen is littered with guys having excellent seasons.

And please, for the love of god, let's not turn this into a "Trade him!" vs. "Keep him!" thing, but:

Roberto Osuna now has 2.1 fWAR. Kenley Jansen and Craig Kimbrel lead all relievers at 2.2. Osuna now has a better FIP and xFIP than Jansen.

Does Tepera and Barnes enter that conversation though, or are they safe due to being controlled?
 

phillipmike

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Oct 27, 2009
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Tepera has a 0.9 WAR similar to Betances... Betances' walk rate is very worrisome.

I have been most impressed with Leone. Waiver claim - up and down from the minors to the pen and performs. Leone has some things to work on for sure but if he takes a step forward next season then that is another good arm.
 

sabresEH

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May 17, 2009
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So I've seen it mentioned before but never really discussed... is moving D Trav to LF an option to reduce chance of injury? Or is that just a random opinion that wouldn't likely happen.
Also would moving Tulo to 2B improve his overall defence? I have seen it mentioned that his defence hasn't been as good this year. Just wondering if switching him over would improve that. If we were to act on the 2 options above we could potentially do this for next season:

Travis - LF
Martin - C
Donaldson - 3B
Smoak - 1B
Pearce - DH
Tulo - 2B
Pillar - CF
XXXX - SS
Alford - RF

Something along the lines of that seems like it could be better defensively while being good enough offensively to push for a WC spot.

In this scenario Morales is traded in the off-season to open up a spot for Pearce as DH and Alford an everyday OF spot.

Refsnyder becomes utility and as much as I'd love to see Pompey as the 4th OF I imagine Zeke takes that spot again.

Not sure who we could pick up to play SS but I'd prefer a defensive wizard there rather than a good bat.

Just having a slow day at work and thought about this scenario and decided to share.
 

MS

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Mar 18, 2002
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I'm kind of surprised Jansen is still flying under the radar.

I guess the worry would be whether he has enough pop in his bat to be a MLB regular. His numbers through to AA look eerily similar to Josh Thole's. That said, Thole did hit pretty well in his first couple years before losing the plot entirely with the bat for whatever reason.

But yeah, he should definitely be ahead of Pentecost at this point.
 

Diamond Joe Quimby

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I guess the worry would be whether he has enough pop in his bat to be a MLB regular. His numbers through to AA look eerily similar to Josh Thole's. That said, Thole did hit pretty well in his first couple years before losing the plot entirely with the bat for whatever reason.

But yeah, he should definitely be ahead of Pentecost at this point.

Concussion.

And to be fair, Jansen's ISO is not sub 100. In fact, Jansen has a higher ISO currently (.140) than Gary Sanchez did in his first two runs through Double-A (.130/.135). Had a higher ISO in A+ too.
 
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