Blue Jays Discussion: Steve Pearce: comeback machine

[phillipmike]

I really don't get how any team of sound mind is giving up anything of value for Estrada based on not only his season but his past 9 starts (9.5 ERA). Estrada's performance is the type of performance contending teams are attempting to discard, not acquire.

Some team is always out there looking for the guy they can "fix" when they had success in the past. Estrada should have value as he was good in 2015, great in 2016 and unstoppable from the start of the season to May 27th.

Dont expect any type of return but teams will always have interest in those type of players. Heck a less productive Verlander with 60m+ owed is still getting interest.

Happ (1.3 WAR) got moved at the deadline in 2015. Nova (0.4 WAR) got moved in 2016. Worse pitchers than Estrada (1.6 WAR) have had interest to other teams.

 

[TootooTrain]

With Liriano, it worked out well that he was able to reunite with Russell Martin. But he was our #5 pitcher and there was talk that he would've gone to the bullpen at the first sight of struggle.

Anytime you're acquiring a struggling pitcher, you're not really solidifying anything. You better have a backup plan in case he struggles

He wasn't struggling when he got to the jays though. So he did improve the rotation that year. 2.92 era (albiet a 3.98fip).

Often times this struggling player being acquired is the backup plan. It was a great reunited pairing with him and Martin.
But yes, his potential success at that moment was still doubtful.

 

[zeke]

We should be trading Happ. This year is much more typical Happ than last year was. He's 35 next year. I wouldn't expect much more than he's given us this year.

 

[Glenn Isildur Healy]

The demand for the best hitting 1B in baseball would be, though.

What teams would be interested?

 

[Stats01]

I really don't get how any team of sound mind is giving up anything of value for Estrada based on not only his season but his past 9 starts (9.5 ERA). Estrada's performance is the type of performance contending teams are attempting to discard, not acquire.

Exactly. A contending team might as well just call up one of their farm hands rather than give something up for Estrada. When asked why he all of a sudden lost it in the 5th inning against Cleveland Marco said he just felt like he ran out of gas....if you're a contender why the hell would acquire this guy. He's giving almost 10 r/9 innings in his past few starts. An utter disaster of a season for him

 

[zeke]

What teams would be interested?

who plays 1B for NY or BOS?

 

[deletethis]

I'm still hearing talk radio acting like the decline in the Jays' offense is a huge surprise. The steepness of the decline, I get that, but a significant overall decline was a fairly high probability:

Not Surprises:
Martin - subject to major slumps, he has had worse seasons
Travis - injury prone for two straight seasons, another injury plagued season is not a shock
Tulo - hitting like he hit when he first arrived here 2015
Bautista - last season was his lowest OPS since his first full year as Blue Jay
Pearce - injury riddled season is a typical season for him
Morales - is having pretty much the exact season we should have expected of him
Pilar - typical production

Actual Surprises (a wash as far as I'm concerned):
Donaldson - hugely disappointing season, having a season roughly equivalent to the expectations for Smoak
Smoak - having a year that we'd have expected from Donaldson

 

[Eyedea]

He has an affordable salary where he most likely gets claimed if he's not dealt before July 31st. Eg. If a team like Arizona wanted to deal for him you can bet on a team like Colorado putting a claim in on him.

I know you're using hypothetical examples but I'm not sure either of those teams would be interested in a fly ball pitcher. If someone were to claim him to block, but is still interested, then a deal can be worked out. I don't see GMs in the market to burn bridges.

 

[Glenn Isildur Healy]

He wasn't struggling when he got to the jays though. So he did improve the rotation that year. 2.92 era (albiet a 3.98fip).

Often times this struggling player being acquired is the backup plan. It was a great reunited pairing with him and Martin.
But yes, his potential success at that moment was still doubtful.

If he did struggle, he would've gone to the bullpen. The point is that Liriano did not solidify anything at the time of the acquisition. It worked out well at the end but nothing was set in stone

 

[deletethis]

Some team is always out there looking for the guy they can "fix" when they had success in the past. Estrada should have value as he was good in 2015, great in 2016 and unstoppable from the start of the season to May 27th.

Dont expect any type of return but teams will always have interest in those type of players. Heck a less productive Verlander with 60m+ owed is still getting interest.

Happ (1.3 WAR) got moved at the deadline in 2015. Nova (0.4 WAR) got moved in 2016. Worse pitchers than Estrada (1.6 WAR) have had interest to other teams.

Contending teams aren't searching for projects in late July, especially one on expiring contracts.

This is an argument on how Estrada gets another contract from somebody in winter.

 

[TootooTrain]

If he did struggle, he would've gone to the bullpen. The point is that Liriano did not solidify anything at the time of the acquisition. It worked out well at the end but nothing was set in stone

Which is my point. There's a portion of deadline moves that have lots of question marks associated with them. Will he be healthy? Will he play well? Will he regress in a hitters division? Nothing is guaranteed. In the end, it solidified the rotation heading into the post-season.

 

[Discoverer]

What teams would be interested?

Keeping in mind that Smoak has a 154 wRC+ this year (as mentioned, the highest among all 1B in baseball)...

- KC has a 68 wRC+ from the DH spot, not much money to spend, and a pending free agent 1B. Smoak would be a perfect fit now and going forward.

- Minnesota has a 101 wRC+ from the DH spot and their own financial concerns. They suck at 1B too, but I can't imagine they'll do anything that would bump Mauer.

- The Angels have an 81 from DH and 68 from 1B. Dear god...

- Hell, the Yankees have the worst 1B spot in baseball (66) and just "solved" it by adding a league-average hitter.

- Seattle is 27th at 1B with a 92.

- Boston and Cleveland both have a sub-100 wRC+ from 1B, though, like with the Twins and Mauer, both are unlikely to pursue an upgrade because of the players they have in the position right now.

There would be a ton of interest in Smoak if the Jays decided to move him. He's unlikely to be moved because his contract is outstanding, but that doesn't mean teams won't be interested.

 

[phillipmike]

I'm still hearing talk radio acting like the decline in the Jays' offense is a huge surprise. The steepness of the decline, I get that, but a significant overall decline was a fairly high probably:

Not Surprises:
Martin - subject to major slumps, he has had worse seasons
Travis - injury prone for two straight seasons, another injury plagued season is not a shock
Tulo - hitting like he hit when he first arrived here 2015
Bautista - last season was his lowest OPS since his first full year as Blue Jay
Pearce - injury riddled season is a typical season for him
Morales - is having pretty much the exact season we should have expected of him
Pilar - typical production

Actual Surprises (a wash as far as I'm concerned):
Donaldson - hugely disappointing season, having a season roughly equivalent to the expectations for Smoak
Smoak - having a year that we'd have expected from Donaldson

It should be a huge surprise - outside of Smoak and Martin everyone is severely underachieving.

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.as...m=14&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=20,d

Jays were many people's picks for the wildcard. Fangraphs had them right their with the Red Sox after the Price injury was reported.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/if-the-red-sox-lose-david-price/

Like i said last week;

The funny thing is the Jays blew some games they should have won. The three most recent are;

Losing in extras to Boston, losing in extras to the White Sox and blowing that game in Kansas.

A 44-51 record suddenly becomes 47-48 and 2.5 GB of the 2nd WC spot and 3.5 back of the 1st WC spot and the only team in front of them is the Twins who they would be 1.5 games behind. And you are only 5 games back of the division. Doesnt include a bunch of other games they could have easily won this season.

Not that i am advocating the Jays are legit contenders where they should buy. But rather its a shame all those injuries hit us at once and so early because i never seen the AL so weak outside of Houston. Fangraphs is projecting the 1st WC winner had 85 wins and the 2nd has 83. Even if they continue their pace Tampa is looking at 86 wins and the Yankees at 84. That is extremely easy to obtain - 9 Jays teams from 1994 to 2014 had at least 83 wins and in most of those cases their werent even trying to win.

Wins to obtain a Wildcard Spot:
2012: 93 and 93
2013: 92 and 92
2014: 89 and 88
2015: 87 and 86
2016: 89 and 89

Its a real shame and missed opportunity that we missed if it only takes 83-86 wins to get a playoff spot. If we had some health i have no problem saying we would be in a wildcard spot or even the division lead and maybe we just picked up JD Martinez for nothing of consequence.

Even with the Indians sweep - if the Jays won those aforementioned 3 games then they would be 47-51... only 3.5 GB out of a WC spot. If Donaldson is somewhat like his 2015 or 2016 self then the Jays would be in a wildcard spot.

A decline this sharp should be a big surprise. A decline was expected (i believe many thought this was a 86 win team to start the season) and that looks enough to win the top wildcard spot.

 

[deletethis]

It should be a huge surprise - outside of Smoak and Martin everyone is severely underachieving.
.

MLB players 32 and older not hitting their career averages is never a huge surprise unless you pretend age is an irrelevant factor in player performance.

 

[GoonieFace]

If if's and but's were candies and nuts...fact is, this team is toast. I don't see this team contending next year either, especially with Sanchez and Travis being question marks. Might as well trade Happ, see what Donaldson gets you, and even Smoak to a certain degree. Im not saying give these guys away, but if you get good value for them, its time to move on. We are most likely stuck with Martin, Tulo and Morales, so open some spots in LF/RF, 1B and 2B (Travis will most likely get hurt again anyway) for some younger players. Alford, Tellez and Gurriel come to mind.

 

[phillipmike]

Contending teams aren't searching for projects in late July, especially one on expiring contracts.

This is an argument on how Estrada gets another contract from somebody in winter.

If the market is weak then it might be their only choice. Quintana is gone, it isnt certain Gray is gone and a lot of team cant and probably dont want Verlander.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/07/top-60-trade-deadline-candidates-for-2017-3.html

Best starters after Gray that are available were Quintana (traded), Verlander, Cahill, and Feldman. Next were Estrada and Liriano.

I dont believe Texas will be selling Darvish being only 2.5 GB out of a WC.

So unless you want to pay ridiculous prices for Gray or Darvish or risk taking on Verlander or Samardzija deal then Estrada doesnt look that bad.

Estrada in a vacuum doesnt turn any heads but when you compare him to what is available it might be worth a shot.

2017 MLBTR Trade Candidates WAR:

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.as...4371,6570,3201,3551,3254,3200,8700,3990,12768

Edit: Estrada had the 14th ranked defense behind him in 2015, and the 9th in 2016. His defense is 27th now... He is inducing the same GB% (though he could improve his soft contact) with more strike outs. If i am a team in need of a starter and i have a good defense then Estrada would interest me.

 

[phillipmike]

MLB players 32 and older not hitting their career averages is never a huge surprise unless you pretend age is an irrelevant factor in player performance.

Went from a top 10 fielding team to 27th.
Went from a top 10 team in wRC+ and offensive WAR to 26th and 23rd respective should be very surprising when you only had one major loss in EE.

If i told you on April 1st the Jays went from a top 10 fielding and offensive team in 2016 to 23-27th ranked in 2017 i would be astounded to hear you say that you could see that happening.

 

[Glenn Isildur Healy]

Which is my point. There's a portion of deadline moves that have lots of question marks associated with them. Will he be healthy? Will he play well? Will he regress in a hitters division? Nothing is guaranteed. In the end, it solidified the rotation heading into the post-season.

I think we're talking about two different things

You're talking about a rotation that gets solidified after you've seen his performance
I'm talking about a rotation that doesn't get solidified right after the acquisition is made. Because there are so many contingencies, you have to have a backup plan if it doesn't work out

The leash on a struggling pitcher isn't going to be as long as a pitcher who has had success throughout the season

 

[canucksfan]

You wouldn't have to give up a lot to get Marco either.

 

[hockeywiz542]

4. Jose bautista, rf, blue jays — while the jays’ front office is split on whether the team should be broken up and traded away, bautista could be in demand at the deadline because of his power and the fact that he’s still a pretty good outfielder with a good arm. Bautista has struggled at different times this season but feels there’s a lot left in the tank.

 

[hoc123]

MILB careers so far:

Jansen (22.3): 1045pa, 10.6bb%, 12.1k%, .287babip, .265avg, .118iso, 118wrc+
Alford (23.0): 1174pa, 12.8bb%, 24.8k%, .361babip, .270avg, .130iso, 129wrc+

And just at AA:

Jansen (22.3): 188pa, 11.7bb%, 8.5k%, .324babip, .306avg, .140iso, 134wrc+
Alford (23.0): 154pa, 11.0bb%, 16.9k%, .377babip, .319avg, .126iso, 137wrc+


Though of course so much of Danny's value lies in whether he sticks at C or not.

Danny Jansen has also gone 12 straight games and 47 straight Plate Appearances without a strikeout. I would say Jansen is easily a top 5 Blue Jay prospect now.

 

[hockeywiz542]

it’s time to sell. But the bigger question for the blue jays is: Sell what?

mark shapiro and ross atkins are caught in a spiral of sorts. Their greatest assets — marcus stroman, aaron sanchez, roberto osuna, josh donaldson — are worth keeping and building around.

Their name value in expiring contracts — jose bautista, marco estrada, francisco liriano — could be sent packing, assuming bautista agrees, but will bring back little of consequence except payroll savings for the final two months of this hugely disappointing season.

So, what can they do in the next week as the first major-league trade deadline approaches? They can try and find a home for kendrys morales. They can pick up the phone and find out if anyone believes, even with a financial incentive, that troy tulowitzki is still troy tulowitzki. They can dangle j.a. Happ, but only for real value because he can be part of a decent starting rotation a year from now.

there isn’t any blueprint here that seems to make sense.

You can have a starting rotation next season that begins with stroman, sanchez and happ. That’s decent. You can have an infield with justin smoak, a healthy devon travis and donaldson next season. Assuming smoak is real, that’s decent. But you need some speed, and some gap hitters and two corner outfielders and a blister to heal, but then, where are you?

It’s easy to say sell and blow it up. It makes for wonderful sports radio talk. But what are you selling and what are you left with after the blow-up? And what is on the field next season?

the only players of real value are the ones you want to hang on to. That’s the challenge for shapiro and atkins. Finding the right strategy. The answers here aren’t obvious.

if the jays can move morales and lose estrada, bautista and liriano in free agency, that gives them nice pocket change of $55 million for shapiro and atkins to play with …

 

[Neil Hamburger]

Joe Smith should have decent value, lots of teams will be looking for bullpen help.

 

[Mach85]

http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/the-prospect-stock-watch-reid-foley-ruiz-suiter/

Interesting take on SRF (where my boy Hoglund at??). Considering how difficult it is to predict which pitchers are going to break down (i.e. it's pretty much a fool's errand) and the amount of pitchers who go through TJ anyway, that comment about trading him while he's still right is odd.

 

[dredeye]

We should be trading Happ. This year is much more typical Happ than last year was. He's 35 next year. I wouldn't expect much more than he's given us this year.

I wouldn't be opposed to it. Could be a cash in while you can scenario and he's likely bring back a pretty fair return. Not that it should be a huge consideration but it's not easy getting three starters for next year. Or to finish out this season for that matter.