Player Discussion: Stanley

[Mortimer Snerd]

Is bort much faster? I don’t know.

He is at least a little faster. You are ignoring the difference in competition between Forb and Stanley.

Stan is a slow player. With his reach he can overcome it most of the time. But I think it will still be a problem against better competition.

He has clearly worked on his skating. It is much better than it was. IDK how much potential there is for further improvement. His top speed is not bad. He lacks quickness and probably always will.

Happy as I am with his progress this year, I think some here are getting carried away with their enthusiasm.

 

[Adam da bomb]

He is at least a little faster. You are ignoring the difference in competition between Forb and Stanley.

Stan is a slow player. With his reach he can overcome it most of the time. But I think it will still be a problem against better competition.

He has clearly worked on his skating. It is much better than it was. IDK how much potential there is for further improvement. His top speed is not bad. He lacks quickness and probably always will.

Happy as I am with his progress this year, I think some here are getting carried away with their enthusiasm.

So if Stanley gets a little faster he can be bort. I’m also not forgetting Stanley is a rookie bort has been at it for awhile. I also think you underestimate him as you have said you think Niku and poolman are just as good. I think at the very least he is our best 3rd liner we have.
Do agree that the comparisons with demelo are premature.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

So if Stanley gets a little faster he can be bort. I’m also not forgetting Stanley is a rookie bort has been at it for awhile. I also think you underestimate him as you have said you think Niku and poolman are just as good. I think at the very least he is our best 3rd liner we have.
Do agree that the comparisons with demelo are premature.

I'm not comparing him with anyone. I'm saying he has done very well sheltered on the 3rd pair. I think mobility will be the thing that limits him. It may keep him on the 3rd pair. If he makes it to the 2nd pair, it will be what keeps him from the 1st pair. Wherever he ends up, mobility will always be his limiting factor.

Up to about 15-20 games ago, he was no better than Niku had been to that point this year. Since then he has gained experience. No way to say that Niku wouldn't have gained just as much, or more. We know Niku would not have grown 6 inches. We also know that Niku is not limited by mobility. Poolman is still better, IMO. Play Stanley for 15-20 games on 1st pair and then compare him to Poolman.

I think Stanley is not far behind Poolman though and has the potential to overtake him. We'll see.

I think it has come to the point where they will probably protect Stanley and expose DeMelo. Lower cost, more potential.

 

[Adam da bomb]

I'm not comparing him with anyone. I'm saying he has done very well sheltered on the 3rd pair. I think mobility will be the thing that limits him. It may keep him on the 3rd pair. If he makes it to the 2nd pair, it will be what keeps him from the 1st pair. Wherever he ends up, mobility will always be his limiting factor.

Up to about 15-20 games ago, he was no better than Niku had been to that point this year. Since then he has gained experience. No way to say that Niku wouldn't have gained just as much, or more. We know Niku would not have grown 6 inches. We also know that Niku is not limited by mobility. Poolman is still better, IMO. Play Stanley for 15-20 games on 1st pair and then compare him to Poolman.

I think Stanley is not far behind Poolman though and has the potential to overtake him. We'll see.

I think it has come to the point where they will probably protect Stanley and expose DeMelo. Lower cost, more potential.

And based on my post I’ve already stated how I feel. And Stanley has more than height he was always more physical.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

He has been caught a few times, and I remember those times when he had to use a long reach to recover. But it's not happening very often, and much less than I expected.

He will need to continue to be sheltered vs. McDavid, but I could say that about most D. Forbort struggles to keep McDavid in front of him, too. Otherwise, I think there is reason for increasing confidence that Stanley can manage in various situations. He makes very good decisions with the puck, and he's a solid passer, both in small areas and with stretch passes.

He doesn't seem to panic and the passes have been a big plus. He is getting more minutes which suggests Maurice is gaining confidence in him. But it is not just McDavid he will need to be sheltered from. It will be other high skill, high speed forwards too. He will gradually come up against stronger opposition and we will see how he does.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

And based on my post I’ve already stated how I feel.

Yup. Me too.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Imagine trying to pick a fight with a 6'7" tree. There is so much potential left in him (mostly to grow into a bulldozer, since his defensive game is already pretty solid) that I really, really hope we find a way to not lose him. Seattle's analysts have to be all over him already.

If we expose him, I'd bet on Seattle taking him. I no longer think we will. He is only exposed if Chevy decides it is better losing him than the next most likely loss and I really don't see that happening.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I figured Stanley would be protected under Sunk Cost principles, but he is definitely making a case for himself.

Sunk cost doesn't get a protection. If he was playing the way I (and many others) had expected, no way he would have been protected. Stanley's play does get a protection though.

 

[Whileee]

I think Maurice wasn’t bullshitting when he said “we” really like a Poolman. Also the fact they seem comfortable playing on the top pair tells me they do overvalue Poolman

Secondly, the org did trade for and sign DeMelo to a new long term contract so I would assume at least Chevy is a fan.

lastly I do know Paul is big on managing the confidence of Stanley as he enters the NHL.

Taken together I guess it explains one theory of why DeMelo finds himself below Poolman on the depth chart currently.

Is it possible DeMelo is in the dog house for his slow start still?

Love our Jets but they know how to keep me off balance.

It's an interesting dynamic. The only thing I can think about with respect to Poolman is that he and Morrissey have a very positive goal differential at 5v5, and maybe Maurice sees something other than the shot metrics that he likes better about Poolman with Morrissey. With such small sample sizes, I'm pretty skeptical about the goal differentials, and my eye test finds Poolman to be very inconsistent and often disorganized.

Meanwhile, I actually think the DeMelo is a perfect partner for Stanley, and they should maybe start giving that pairing a bit harder usage in terms of time and matchup and zone deployment. Maybe they can take some of Morrissey-Poolman's minutes at 5v5. DeMelo is a reliable stay-at-home type, and Stanley could probably get a bit more involved in the offense as he has shown some signs of doing lately.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

To be fair people took Garrett's info and spun it really poorly. Which is too bad because he wasn't really off on what he was predicting

So far, I think he has been right in the range Garrett predicted. But if he shows much more growth he will exceed that prediction.

And AFAIR a big part of Garrett's point was comparing to the option of keeping our picks and going after Debrincat and Girard. Or was it only Girard that Garrett singled out? Whatever, the alternative played a big part in the assessment of the move.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I even said he could be a number 4 defender in the NHL... before the Jets drafted him :'(

I still think the Jets (and the entire NHL for that matter) is highly inefficient draft market. I think there's a lot of room for improvement (and it is getting better league wide).

For example, what often gets ignored is my work on scoring didn't say defenders over 0.6 pts/gp are good and under 0.6 are bad.
What it did say is that:
1) Defenders who are under 0.6 tend to get drafted *a bit* too early and defenders who are over 0.6 tend to get drafted *a bit* too late.
2) Defenders who score under 0.6 that make it tend to bounce back the next season and score about as much as those who scored over the previous season (suggesting luck and/or usage held them back).
3) Probability isn't destiny and there's a large range of variation in possible outcomes even if you follow the right processes.

"3) Probability isn't destiny and there's a large range of variation in possible outcomes even if you follow the right processes."

There is also a large range of variability in possible outcomes even if you follow the wrong processes - or less than optimum processes. Better processes will produce better results. Poorer ones will still produce some good results. Unless the processes are extremely bad.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

True, the guy I'm not liking this season is Poolman, guys trajectory has flatlined, he's barely a bottom pairing talent. Would love to Samberg get a shot this season!

Poolman is 27 YO, nearly 28. He is supposed to have flatlined.

People are far too hard on him here this year. He is a 3rd pair Dman being played consistently on the 1st pair. Same thing last year. He and DeMelo should be swapped. Better yet, we should have a legit 1st pair RHD.

 

[10Ducky10]

Stan the Man is a rookie yet he is older than PLD.
How weird is that?

 

[garret9]

Poolman is 27 YO, nearly 28. He is supposed to have flatlined.

People are far too hard on him here this year. He is a 3rd pair Dman being played consistently on the 1st pair. Same thing last year. He and DeMelo should be swapped. Better yet, we should have a legit 1st pair RHD.

Imagine if the Jets had one, or heck even two, legitimate top 4 left hand defenders!!
(Despite not playing like one, I still think Morrissey could be one if he was a 3-4 in a "Guy", Pionk, Demelo, Morrissey top 4, but he isn't playing like one this year on average)

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I think the fact that he plays so calmly and most often makes the right, simple play is very impressive for someone his age. You rarely see panic in his game, which is more than can be said for most of our guys.

I have high hopes for the kid. I could see him in the top 4 now, which I never thought was possible earlier. I think a Stanley Heinola pair would be so dynamic, and kind of hilarious to look at

I think talking about Stanley in the 2nd pair is premature. It is not entirely out of sight though.

Stanley Heinola could actually work out. I'd rather see it tried as a 3rd pair than as a 2nd though. At least to start.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Imagine if the Jets had one, or heck even two, legitimate top 4 left hand defenders!!
(Despite not playing like one, I still think Morrissey could be one if he was a 3-4 in a "Guy", Pionk, Demelo, Morrissey top 4)

I still can't believe that Morrissey has been that bad this year. I've seen some of the numbers but by my eye-test he is not even close to that bad. I am more inclined to doubt some of the models. He is also playing big minutes against the oppositions best and doing it with 3rd pair partners. He is not a #1 Dman. Never was. But I think he is still a top pair Dmen, with a good partner.

Imagine if the Jets had one, or even two legit top 4 right hand defenders!! Well, we do have one in Pionk, but he never plays with Morrissey. In their limited time together last year, they were good, and Pionk has improved a lot since that time. Not sure, that may even have been pre-season last year.

They are not an ideal match, being to much alike, but I would still like to see them together in the absence of a better partner for Morrissey. Trouble is, that leaves our 2nd pair too weak. Or might. That appears to be Paul's reasoning.

Morrissey - Pionk
Forbort - DeMelo
Stanley Poolman

would be a more orthodox arrangement of best to worst.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

6.25m x6 years is a large risk to find out if a player is good still. he has not been good (consistently) for 3 years now. not saying they would or would not select him, but just wonder about it, given how robust analytically their staff is.

Its 2 years, not 3. 3 years ago he and Trouba were a good first pair.

 

[LowLefty]

I think talking about Stanley in the 2nd pair is premature. It is not entirely out of sight though.

Stanley Heinola could actually work out. I'd rather see it tried as a 3rd pair than as a 2nd though. At least to start.

Based on Stanley's growth recently, it's not premature at all -
He has already surprised many by taking his game to a place some if not many, assumed he would never reach -
So taking it the next it another step (or steps) is not any more premature than taking Laine game (for example) to the heavens despite his poor skating and backward trajectory.
It depends on what lens you are looking through when evaluating players - the optimistic are not necessarily premature and the pessimist are not always right.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I'm slightly confused but isn't there a very short list of who they'll end up taking from the jets?

I thought it pretty much had to be cop/lowry/statsny

How does Stastny get on that list?
We don't need to worry about Lowry unless/until we sign him. Same goes for Stastny.

If we sign Lowry and protect both him and Copp, we have to expose Appleton. If I'm Seattle, I take BPA Appleton. But if I'm Chevy and I sign Lowry, I think I'd expose Copp since he probably doesn't sign here long term. In that case Seattle is choosing among Copp, DeMelo, Harkins and Berdin. Oh, and Comrie. Probably take Copp, IMO.

 

[garret9]

I still can't believe that Morrissey has been that bad this year. I've seen some of the numbers but by my eye-test he is not even close to that bad. I am more inclined to doubt some of the models. He is also playing big minutes against the oppositions best and doing it with 3rd pair partners. He is not a #1 Dman. Never was. But I think he is still a top pair Dmen, with a good partner.

Imagine if the Jets had one, or even two legit top 4 right hand defenders!! Well, we do have one in Pionk, but he never plays with Morrissey. In their limited time together last year, they were good, and Pionk has improved a lot since that time. Not sure, that may even have been pre-season last year.

They are not an ideal match, being to much alike, but I would still like to see them together in the absence of a better partner for Morrissey. Trouble is, that leaves our 2nd pair too weak. Or might. That appears to be Paul's reasoning.

Morrissey - Pionk
Forbort - DeMelo
Stanley Poolman

would be a more orthodox arrangement of best to worst.

The list of excuses for Morrissey fall flat once you use any logic and fact checking...

Ice time?
Pionk played more mins than Morrissey last season, and DeMelo played similar mins, with better results.
This season Pionk has played slightly less mins, with far superior results.
Forbort has played far more mins than a player of his capability optimally would on most teams, yet has severely less bad results.
That said, when Morrissey was at his best season he was on avg seeing 2nd pairing ice time and was the 4th option by the coach to step on the ice most time (behind Trouba, Byfuglien, and even Myers).

Usage?
Pionk played almost as tough matchups as Morrissey last season with better results.
Pionk and Forbort have faced tougher matchups with lesser QoT for forwards, with better results.
Morrissey last year played tougher mins than Morrissey this year, and was still better.

Rotating Linemate?
When DeMelo first stepped in to WPG he didn't have just new pair, who strated as Beaulieu, he had new forwards to play with, and his results were better... oh PS the Beaulieu-DeMelo was deployed as the Jets top pair at the time (and at the same time Morrissey was with Pionk as the second pair).

And not about fact checking but priors based models suggest Morrissey has never been very dominant anyways:

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Based on Stanley's growth recently, it's not premature at all -
He has already surprised many by taking his game to a place some if not many, assumed he would never reach -
So taking it the next it another step (or steps) is not any more premature than taking Laine game (for example) to the heavens despite his poor skating and backward trajectory.
It depends on what lens you are looking through when evaluating players - the optimistic are not necessarily premature and the pessimist are not always right.

At the risk of repeating myself, I think some people are getting carried away with Stanley. I want to see more of him playing more minutes, with a weaker partner, against better opposition, before I start projecting him to a higher level. You are free to do so if you like, of course. But I will think you are being premature.

I don't think I am being either optimistic or pessimistic. I'm not saying he will rise to 2nd pair level or that he won't. I'm only saying that I need more before projecting him beyond where he is now.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I'm very happy with the way they're handling Stanley this year. Instead of moving Stanley up next, I'd like to see:
- Demelo moving back up with Morrissey
- Beaulieu NOT drawing back in for Stanley

This way we get a bigger sample size of Stanley not having a mentor partner supporting him. If he has to play with Poolman and still succeeds over a longer period, that will say a lot. Then, mabye Heinola draws in for Poolman on that bottom pair.

Of course, this is very unlikely to happen. It's more likely we pick up a D to play in the top 4.

Good post. I think the key thing about Stanley so far is that he should have cleanly won the job over Beaulieu. That is 'so far'. He could go farther. Time will tell.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Is that how it works? I thought they had to agree to a contract to count as a pick. So if they selected Lowry and he didn't sign with them then it's a wasted pick unless there's a side deal like Thorburn

The Curious Role Of UFAs In The Expansion Draft - SinBin.vegas

This is what I'm reading they used jumbo joe as an example.


I think that's what I said lol

Yes, you have it correctly. It is not that they pick the UFA player in the XD and then try to sign him. It is that if they sign him before the XD it counts as their selection from the team they last played for.

Taking Thor was a different story as their was a trade of assets setting out that he would be the choice as part of that deal. Since they didn't sign him, it was equivalent to having agreed to take no one from the Jets.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Seattle has exclusive rights to talk to UFAs 48 hrs b4 expansion draft.... So as some here say we can have a handshake deal with Lowry to sign him to a contract the day after the expansion draft..... Seattle would still have the chance to talk contract with Lowry b4 he becomes a true UFA ..... If Seattle out bids us ..... our handshake deal is worthless...

That's not true. Handshake deals are worth the paper they are written on.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Yeah, I feel like Stanley could potentially be the bait we dangle in getting a seasoned top 4 guy for the playoffs. That makes the road to the roster easier for Heinola and Samberg if its a rental.

I would prefer to see him used as one piece in a bigger deal to get a real solution at RD. He could be a very appealing piece.