Player Discussion: Stanley

[Joe Hallenback]

Agree. @garret9 focused on the process, not the destiny of the pick. I agreed then, and I agree now. The only caveat is that it's quite possible that the scouting / drafting process was better than many of us portrayed, in that the Jets might have had much more insight into Stanley's work ethic, trajectory, physical attributes, etc.

What became somewhat toxic was a tendency to use the pick to create a caricature of Stanley and the Jets' scouting. Stanley clearly had attributes beyond being a huge lug. Even though there was plenty of evidence to the contrary, many used the Stanley pick to hammer repeatedly on the point that the Jets only looked at size in their drafting (Morrissey, Petan, Ehlers, Connor, Perfetti, Green, Heinola).

Also, I think there is too much of a tendency on this board and in social media to identify one or two later picks that turned out really well to critique a team's entire drafting strategy.

I think the Jets development process is really top notch. Get beyond the 1st round picks even Stanley and we seem to be able find and develop guys. The line that scored 4 goals last night are a 3rd round pick, 4th round pick and a 5th round pick. That is really impressive.

I agree right now I see Stanley long term as a possible 4th D man. Play him with a mobile puck mover and you have a partnership. At worst he is a 5/6 guy in the NHL right now. The problem is we might lose him in the expansion draft

 

[garret9]

I think the Jets development process is really top notch. Get beyond the 1st round picks even Stanley and we seem to be able find and develop guys. The line that scored 4 goals last night are a 3rd round pick, 4th round pick and a 5th round pick. That is really impressive.

I agree right now I see Stanley long term as a possible 4th D man. Play him with a mobile puck mover and you have a partnership. At worst he is a 5/6 guy in the NHL right now. The problem is we might lose him in the expansion draft

And, I mean, it sucks to lose a body, but Jets are most likely losing a depth player if they do or don't lose Stanley(that matters but doesn't make or break).

Losing a 5/6 that could be a 4 stinks, but it isn't like losing Buff and Trouba and Chiarot and Enstrom in like a 2 year span haha.

 

[Joe Hallenback]

And, I mean, it sucks to lose a body, but Jets are most likely losing a depth player if they do or don't lose Stanley(that matters but doesn't make or break).

Losing a 5/6 that could be a 4 stinks, but it isn't like losing Buff and Trouba and Chiarot and Enstrom in like a 2 year span haha.

But its weird to think that we don't want to lose him after all the moaning about him

 

[Whileee]

I even said he could be a number 4 defender in the NHL... before the Jets drafted him :'(

I still think the Jets (and the entire NHL for that matter) is highly inefficient draft market. I think there's a lot of room for improvement (and it is getting better league wide).

For example, what often gets ignored is my work on scoring didn't say defenders over 0.6 pts/gp are good and under 0.6 are bad.
What it did say is that:
1) Defenders who are under 0.6 tend to get drafted *a bit* too early and defenders who are over 0.6 tend to get drafted *a bit* too late.
2) Defenders who score under 0.6 that make it tend to bounce back the next season and score about as much as those who scored over the previous season (suggesting luck and/or usage held them back).
3) Probability isn't destiny and there's a large range of variation in possible outcomes even if you follow the right processes.

I agree that the draft market is inefficient, but it's not really clear how it can become much more efficient as long as the draft is mainly selecting players after their 17-year old season. Clearly there are some metrics that could be amplified, and other considerations dimmed.

As Joe alludes to above, development is probably a really important consideration. Beyond that, there's an important role for opportunity. In the Jets' case, they went through a process of turning over the roster and making space for their drafted / developed young players to find suitable NHL roles / opportunities. They might find it more difficult to do that with the current crop of prospects (particularly at forward), since they have a youngish core in the top-9. Will Vesalainen languish? Will Perfetti be forced to the wing, or the 3rd line?

That's partly why I think that at some point you can end up with more prospects than you can effectively develop and work into the system, and it probably becomes better to trade them to fill key holes, or for longer-term futures that will fill the pipeline in the future. Having bottleneck for prospects that hems them in lower leagues during potential peak time periods isn't a good strategy, and I see that happening a bit with the Jets in this window. It's a tough balance to get. I would favour using the young players more at earlier stages. There's really no reason not to have tried Heinola and/or Samberg at this point, or Harkins / Vesalainen at forward.

 

[Jet]

There is absolutely no way they're not going to protect him now. He has proven himself better than any other defenseman on the team other than Pionk or Morrissey. Demelo and Forbort do have their moments (Poolman and Boo Boo don't really have any moments anymore), but I'd let them go before Stanley.

I wouldn't put Stanley above Forbort or Demelo yet. He's done extremely well in sheltered minutes, and is tracking very nicely.

 

[DeepFrickinValue]

My take is that Stanley is an incredibly hard worker/trainer and is coachable. This is the reason he in the biggies.

 

[Whileee]

I wouldn't put Stanley above Forbort or Demelo yet. He's done extremely well in sheltered minutes, and is tracking very nicely.

Agree. He's been a pleasant surprise, but I don't think we should get ahead of ourselves considering his usage. I still see times where he gets all messed up, and it would happen more frequently if he played more with tougher assignments.

 

[garret9]

I agree that the draft market is inefficient, but it's not really clear how it can become much more efficient as long as the draft is mainly selecting players after their 17-year old season. Clearly there are some metrics that could be amplified, and other considerations dimmed.

As Joe alludes to above, development is probably a really important consideration. Beyond that, there's an important role for opportunity. In the Jets' case, they went through a process of turning over the roster and making space for their drafted / developed young players to find suitable NHL roles / opportunities. They might find it more difficult to do that with the current crop of prospects (particularly at forward), since they have a youngish core in the top-9. Will Vesalainen languish? Will Perfetti be forced to the wing, or the 3rd line?

That's partly why I think that at some point you can end up with more prospects than you can effectively develop and work into the system, and it probably becomes better to trade them to fill key holes, or for longer-term futures that will fill the pipeline in the future. Having bottleneck for prospects that hems them in lower leagues during potential peak time periods isn't a good strategy, and I see that happening a bit with the Jets in this window. It's a tough balance to get. I would favour using the young players more at earlier stages. There's really no reason not to have tried Heinola and/or Samberg at this point, or Harkins / Vesalainen at forward.

As an aside, I have taken a look at projected value from draft given where picks were made vs actual value from draft. It cannot descern the difference of value garnered from good drafting vs good development.

It actually suggested Jets value is about where the model expected when I discluded goalies in the model and above league average. Jets were slightly more above average and above expected when including goalies.

Some things from that unpublished study:
1) The elites still drive drafting success
2) I was using gamescore not a WAR model so that undervalues defense (IMO)
3) Hellebuyck is a great find

 

[Jaffray15]

Does Stanley need to be protected at the Expansion Draft? According to Cafriendly, he does and if so I'd protect him over Demelo as of now

 

[DRW204]

lol the commentary on twitter is a bunch of a supposed jets fans trying to downplay stanley's play. it's kinda funny b/c i recognize all them as part of the #FreeNiku bs.

Does Stanley need to be protected at the Expansion Draft? According to Cafriendly, he does and if so I'd protect him over Demelo as of now

yes

 

[snowkiddin]

Agree. He's been a pleasant surprise, but I don't think we should get ahead of ourselves considering his usage. I still see times where he gets all messed up, and it would happen more frequently if he played more with tougher assignments.

When you factor in age and trajectory, it becomes a pretty easy choice for me personally in protecting Stanley over DeMelo.

 

[DRW204]

i like demelo, but if we signed savard isn't he more or less the same (if we did lose him)? stanley is younger, and if he reaches top 4 quality, he's basically a unicorn in this league given his size

 

[Jet]

When you factor in age and trajectory, it becomes a pretty easy choice for me personally in protecting Stanley over DeMelo.

Maybe in the future, but there are a lot of variables and development isn't usually linear.

Maybe Stanley is at his peak and won't improve from this at all? Not likely with his work ethic and his past couple of years development track.
Maybe Demelo takes another step? He's 27 so it's less likely but defensemen have shown growth at later years, as defence is more cerebral and strategic.

The original comment that stoked this disccusson (correct me if I'm wrong) is that Stanley is already better than anyone not named Pionk or Morrissey. I disagree with that.

 

[snowkiddin]

Maybe in the future, but there are a lot of variables and development isn't usually linear.

Maybe Stanley is at his peak and won't improve from this at all? Not likely with his work ethic and his past couple of years development track.
Maybe Demelo takes another step? He's 27 so it's less likely but defensemen have shown growth at later years, as defence is more cerebral and strategic.

The original comment that stoked this disccusson (correct me if I'm wrong) is that Stanley is already better than anyone not named Pionk or Morrissey. I disagree with that.

I’d say he’s played better than anyone not named Pionk this year, but that doesn’t mean he is better. That’s just my opinion though and I can respect people that don’t see it that way especially given his usage.

 

[DeepFrickinValue]

Missed the fight last Night. Nice to have when needed or a Tkachuk is around..

 

[DRW204]

I wonder how he rates in RAPM comparatively to our other dmen. RAPM isolates a player from contextual factors like oppositions, linemates, TOI etc.

 

[DannyGallivan]

I wouldn't put Stanley above Forbort or Demelo yet. He's done extremely well in sheltered minutes, and is tracking very nicely.

The reason I would is that he's proven that his baseline is as an effective and contributing roster defenseman at the NHL level. That's his bare minimum. He's only going to improve, and has shown signs that he will be more valuable than either Forbort or Demelo. For that reason, it's a no-brainer (to me anyways) to protect him. Sheltered or not, his play has been impressive, has passed the eye test, and the gaudy plus/minus ain't bad either.

 

[Do or Die]

Can't find that size and reach, under every tree - provides a dimension, we have been lacking. Just starting to show up on opponents radar. Every indicator is that Stan also is a hard worker and coach-able. Only a few games in for him....and shows continual improvement. Could see him becoming a real solid player, here.....

 

[garret9]

I wonder how he rates in RAPM comparatively to our other dmen. RAPM isolates a player from contextual factors like oppositions, linemates, TOI etc.

RAPM generally places Stanley as the 3rd best defender at 5v5 impact, behind DeMelo and Pionk.

Caveat: (Statistically friendly and knowledgable) detractors of RAPM do argue that it is of their opinion that RAPM struggles in extremas (extremely talented players, extremely bad players, extremely sheltered, etc.). They often point out that the defenders that analytical community tend to want more ice time are generally extremely sheltered defenders not used very much. The argument is that something is being missed there.

My response: That is possible and I think it's at least partly true. That said, it's also logical that if certain players are undervalued it is going to be the guys that coaches are afraid of using but actually doing better than they are thought of.

To pull it back to Stanley, RAPM paints him as third best when it tries to adjust for usage. How much of that would persist if he was used more and hidden less? That is a complete unknown. It 110% says that he can handle more than he's been given though.

 

[DRW204]

RAPM generally places Stanley as the 3rd best defender at 5v5 impact, behind DeMelo and Pionk.

Caveat: (Statistically friendly and knowledgable) detractors of RAPM do argue that it is of their opinion that RAPM struggles in extremas (extremely talented players, extremely bad players, extremely sheltered, etc.). They often point out that the defenders that analytical community tend to want more ice time are generally extremely sheltered defenders not used very much. The argument is that something is being missed there.

My response: That is possible and I think it's at least partly true. That said, it's also logical that if certain players are undervalued it is going to be the guys that coaches are afraid of using but actually doing better than they are thought of.

To pull it back to Stanley, RAPM paints him as third best when it tries to adjust for usage. How much of that would persist if he was used more and hidden less? That is a complete unknown. It 110% says that he can handle more than he's been given though.

yeah imo i think stanley can do everything forbort can, and probably better. i think he should start getting a top 4 look next to pionk. might be our best pair this year.

 

[Whileee]

RAPM generally places Stanley as the 3rd best defender at 5v5 impact, behind DeMelo and Pionk.

Caveat: (Statistically friendly and knowledgable) detractors of RAPM do argue that it is of their opinion that RAPM struggles in extremas (extremely talented players, extremely bad players, extremely sheltered, etc.). They often point out that the defenders that analytical community tend to want more ice time are generally extremely sheltered defenders not used very much. The argument is that something is being missed there.

My response: That is possible and I think it's at least partly true. That said, it's also logical that if certain players are undervalued it is going to be the guys that coaches are afraid of using but actually doing better than they are thought of.

To pull it back to Stanley, RAPM paints him as third best when it tries to adjust for usage. How much of that would persist if he was used more and hidden less? That is a complete unknown. It 110% says that he can handle more than he's been given though.

Agree about the RAPM model, and most adjustment models in general. They will struggle when the sample set of context variables is narrow and towards the tails of the distribution. So, for example, Stanley gets an extra boost from his limited time with Poolman. Also, there are broader contextual factors (including "chemistry") that the models don't address well. The bottom line is that every model has residual confounding, and it will have a greater impact outside the central domains of variable distributions. So, it makes sense to look at a variety of different types of metrics / models and triangulate towards a coherent assessment, as @garret9 has been doing with the various data sources.

 

[jgimp]

I think the Jets development process is really top notch. Get beyond the 1st round picks even Stanley and we seem to be able find and develop guys. The line that scored 4 goals last night are a 3rd round pick, 4th round pick and a 5th round pick. That is really impressive.

I agree right now I see Stanley long term as a possible 4th D man. Play him with a mobile puck mover and you have a partnership. At worst he is a 5/6 guy in the NHL right now. The problem is we might lose him in the expansion draft

Wonder how he would do with Pionk? I was always thinking Samberg would be great but I’m thinking Stanley might be better

 

[tbone1968]

Garret and Whileee know the analytics front to back. Truly impressive and I admire that depth of knowledge. Way over my head lol.

But I think there is a human element as well. Personally it’s a feel good story as a fan of this team. The Stanley pick was panned and the kid labeled a bust by many including me and now here is. Most pleasant surprise of this season. I think he’s playing well in his role and there is upside. Just my opinion but maybe more upside than people think based on the reports of his work ethic. Can’t help but pull for the kid. Stories like this make sports fun

Judging by the media talk, these boards etc he is quickly becoming a favorite, more so after he tunes up Tkachuk. Of course he needs to keep playing well to have a role with the team but I don’t think Chevy is going to lose him now.

6’7 guys that can clear the front, move the puck and put the fear of god into guys is something sorely needed on this team. No way he goes to Seattle

 

[DannyGallivan]

Heinola
Pionk
Samberg
Stanley

Future looks good.

... and Declan Chisholm!

 

[DannyGallivan]

I think the Jets development process is really top notch. Get beyond the 1st round picks even Stanley and we seem to be able find and develop guys. The line that scored 4 goals last night are a 3rd round pick, 4th round pick and a 5th round pick. That is really impressive.

I agree right now I see Stanley long term as a possible 4th D man. Play him with a mobile puck mover and you have a partnership. At worst he is a 5/6 guy in the NHL right now. The problem is we might lose him in the expansion draft

We'll only lose him if we don't protect him. Who would we protect over him?