Wildcard to Central looking more appealing than a seed into Pacific every day...
Standings at US Thanksgiving, who makes the final cut?
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Wildcard to Central looking more appealing than a seed into Pacific every day...
See that’s all fair.
Pretending that a team that has been underachieving offensively and bleeding extremely dangerous chances is actually elite is ridiculous.
There is a reason why every goalie they plug in has looked awful, and it’s not luck.
They have to outplay a bunch of teams to get in.
I think they will but it’s not easy. They dug a massive hole. Their schedule is going to be harder as the season goes on.
Last 10 they have made up 1 point on Nashville and 2 on Arizona. Meanwhile Minnesota has kept pace.
- Apr 20, 2016
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The reality is that teams don't magically make up ground when they've played less games than the teams they're chasing. They have 4 games in hand on Nashville who is the wildcard 1 team. Until those games in hand are made up, it's really hard to get a feel for where they are at. They win all 4 of those games (unlikely but still), they would be sitting in that wildcard 1 spot.
GhostfaceWu
Shi Shaw
- Feb 11, 2015
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Absolute nonsense coming from a canuck fan.
Oilers have one of the easiest schedules remaining in the league...
Bank Shot
Registered User
- Jan 18, 2006
- 11,813
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Someone doesnt understand games in hand. Hahaha
Oilers up to 52% GF now. You are seeing regression happen in real time.
PuckG
Registered User
- Feb 26, 2015
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People pointing at a hard Oilers schedule but this is the upcoming 10 games.
- Flyers 12th
- Senators 29th
- Blackhawks 31st
- Red Wings 22nd
- Canadiens 23rd
- Maple Leafs 11th
- Kraken 24th
- Flames 25th
- Blue Jackets 28th
- Blackhawks 31st
Bank Shot
Registered User
- Jan 18, 2006
- 11,813
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They are only 3 points back from Arizona and 4 back from Nashville.
They have 3 games in hand on Nashville.
You haven't watched the Oilers in a while eh?
McFlyingV
Registered User
North Cole
♧ Lem
- Jan 22, 2017
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It was always going to take months of strong play. We needed 0.630 for 60 games to be a 97 point team. Idk why people are championing us only making up a couple of points over 10 games as some gotcha. It's actually quite impressive in the broken modern point system the NHL has. Our P% has risen to almost 0.550, and we've passed 4 teams in the wild card race which is more important than how many points have been made up.
I think our bad start is amplified by the top of the west being on a massive heater. 6 of the top 8 p% in the league are West teams.
I very highly doubt we finish the season with the top 3 in both divisions being 0.660+... last year only 3 West teams managed that (EDM was one of them). Some of these teams will cool down, we aren't likely to catch them but if we finish around 0.600 which shouldn't be that difficult from here, the gap will be closer than it currently looks.
I think our bad start is amplified by the top of the west being on a massive heater. 6 of the top 8 p% in the league are West teams.
I very highly doubt we finish the season with the top 3 in both divisions being 0.660+... last year only 3 West teams managed that (EDM was one of them). Some of these teams will cool down, we aren't likely to catch them but if we finish around 0.600 which shouldn't be that difficult from here, the gap will be closer than it currently looks.
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It's of particular note that the team we "only made up 1 point on" played an additional 4 games through that stretch.
At this point just make the PO. 48 games left. They went 13-3 in the past 16 games, which is 20% of a season and have 37 points in 34 games. Are they realistically going 39-9 for the remaining 48 games? That pace would put them at 115 points. So, that's not realisitc.
They need 60 points in 48 games to get to 97 points. That is 30-18 the rest of the way. AZ in 8th spot, is currently at a 94 point pace.
I mean, look at Jack Michaels Twitter post linked above.
The oilers have done basically just that several years in a row to finish with nearly 110 points. Last year and the year before we went into January with an 18-14-2. Right now we are 18-15-1.
They were never bleeding extremely dangerous chances. They struggled early because of goaltending and you'll find stats to support that.
Your team is an example of a statistical anomaly where you're getting outplayed most games but your goaltending and team shooting percentage is the difference. That likely won't be a successful recipe come playoffs.
They absolutely were bleeding dangerous chances, especially with rush chances.
Both are completely supported by stats.
Their pillowy soft schedule is much harder in the second half. All those precious games in hand have to be played.
How the Oilers’ transitional play has improved under the new coaching staff
<span style="font-weight: 400">As the 18th head coach in franchise his...
oilersnation.com
Check out those rush chance numbers.
They have gotten better since the early season skid ended, but the Oilers were bleeding rush chances and that’s a big part of why they were doing so badly. Why every goalie has struggled so much.
McFlyingV
Registered User
They have top 1/3 easiest strength of schedule to finish the season, I'm not sure where your stats are from.Both are completely supported by stats.
Their pillowy soft schedule is much harder in the second half. All those precious games in hand have to be played.
How the Oilers’ transitional play has improved under the new coaching staff
<span style="font-weight: 400">As the 18th head coach in franchise his...
Check out those rush chance numbers.
They have gotten better since the early season skid ended, but the Oilers were bleeding rush chances and that’s a big part of why they were doing so badly. Why every goalie has struggled so much.
NHL Remaining Schedule Strength | Tankathon
Shows the remaining strength of schedule for NHL teams based on the points per game of the opponents left on their schedule.
NHL Strength of Schedule Rankings
Strength of Schedule Played and Strength of Schedule Remaining for all 31 NHL teams.
powerrankingsguru.com
Sure they had some major issues early season with Woodcroft's new defensive system which resulted in some bad odd man rushes, but rush chances aren't everything. Relatively they've performed quite well defensively ranked 3rd in expected goals against 5v5 and 2nd in all situations.
wow, so the only thing about schedule that matters in any way is strength of opponents?They have top 1/3 easiest strength of schedule to finish the season, I'm not sure where your stats are from.
NHL Remaining Schedule Strength | Tankathon
Shows the remaining strength of schedule for NHL teams based on the points per game of the opponents left on their schedule.www.tankathon.com
NHL Strength of Schedule Rankings
Strength of Schedule Played and Strength of Schedule Remaining for all 31 NHL teams.powerrankingsguru.com
Sure they had some major issues early season with Woodcroft's new defensive system which resulted in some bad odd man rushes, but rush chances aren't everything. Relatively they've performed quite well defensively ranked 3rd in expected goals against 5v5 and 2nd in all situations.
A back to back with travel or 3 games in 4 nights on the road is actually super easy if the teams are mediocre?
That's amazing data I didn't know before. THank you so much.
Expected goals are a stat with only one use, justifying opinions you already have. I give you reasons why were doing so bad defensively and you respond with "but they get better shots".
McFlyingV
Registered User
The Oilers have 6 back to backs remaining in the season and they've won both of their back to backs already. So yes I do think opponent quality is a far more important factor when determining strength of schedule.
What is your argument even regarding expected goals? It shows the Oilers give up far less quality and quantity shots from shot location. I never argued the Oilers didn't have early season issues under Woodcroft for odd man rushes, but their goaltending as a whole has performed far worse than they should have. That is supported by stats even if you want to ignore them.
Senor Catface
Registered User
- Jul 25, 2006
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So basically this topic is reduced to Canuck fans crying the Oilers aren't as bad as they had hoped.
Got it.
Got it.
12 point lead in the standings and first in the west while being stingy defensively.
Settle down oilers fan.
No it's reduced to Oilers fans pushing their same ridiculous narratives and ignoring all flaws on their team.
I think the Oilers do make the playoffs. Doesn't mean they are suddenly an elite team. I don't buy any narrative based on expected goals, just a general rule. I think they have defensive structure problems, personnel problems, and their goalies are not that good (but better if they aren't getting hung out to dry). They are likely a wildcard team.
Oilers fans just rush in acting like their team is somehow amazing and flawless because they are almost back to a wildcard spot. They get upset over something as innocuous as pointing out how hard it is to make up points. Making up 1-2 every 10 games would easily get them in to the playoffs so I'm not sure why it even upsets them.
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North Cole
♧ Lem
- Jan 22, 2017
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Of course it's not realistic, but 60 in 48 is much better than the prognosis we had 5-12.
AZ is in 8th now but I think NSH is more likely to be caught based on p% and GD. Though AZ has a pretty scary batch of games coming up. I'm also not sold thay MIN is truly dead. I think it will come down to these 4 teams.
Weird. So advanced stats are only to be used to justify opinions people already have, but your nebulous talk about b2b games is somehow objective and doesnt reinforce whatever opinions you already have. Lmao.
The Oilers are 4-0 on b2b so far this year, and have historically been a better team in the back half of the year. And yes, games are easier if the opponents are worse. Are you telling us that if Vancouver dropped a bunch of games vs CHI/SJS, etc, you wouldn't be upset at points being flushed down the drain?
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