Blue Jays Discussion: Spring Training Discussion: Countdown to the Season (Thursday at 3pm ET/noon PT)

[Eyedea]

I don't think you can say Varsho underperformed last year, His career average numbers are pretty much inline with what he did last year. He performed slightly worse than his average but not much. There's a non insignificant possibility that his 2022 season was an small outlier and that expecting progress from that season was unrealistic.

His 2023 slash line wasn’t all that close to his career numbers, and his career numbers are made up of three full seasons. If you look at his year to year progression, it was a clear down year from his 2021-2022 seasons.

And then if you look at the whacky home/away splits that affected a bunch of Jays players, you can see that his away stats were in line with his 2021-2022 seasons, but his home numbers completely tanked his overall output.

 

[tmlfan98]

 

[The Nemesis]

I don't think you can say Varsho underperformed last year, His career average numbers are pretty much inline with what he did last year. He performed slightly worse than his average but not much. There's a non insignificant possibility that his 2022 season was an small outlier and that expecting progress from that season was unrealistic.

No they weren't.

Arizona career: .234/.306/.432/.738 slash (avg/obp/slg/ops)
If you take out his rookie season of <40 games it becomes .239/.308/.440/.748
he knocked out about 21 HR per 500 PAs in that time frame.
and he was at or slightly above league average by wRC+ in that timeframe

With the Jays he hit .220/.285/.389/.674 and produced about 17 HR per 500 PA while finishing with a crappy 85 wRC+

and this is with him moving to a home park that is supposedly more hitter-friendly home park and division especially for LHBs.

His batted ball profile from last year also shows a sharp uptick in fly balls and a loss of hard contact.

Even if 2022 was on the high side for him, just returning to something that more closely approximates a the entirety of his Arizona tenure would be an improvement. 15-20 points of batting average, 20+ points of OBP and most significantly like 40-50 points of SLG will make a big difference in him being a quality, workable bat in the 5-7 range in the order and being a guy you have to bury in the 8/9 spots. Even a moderate uptick in his bat puts him back on the path to being a 4-5 WAR player while being one of the best defensive outfielders in the game.

in related news:

Daulton Varsho Is Cleaning up His Process

The Blue Jays outfielder is better connecting the pieces of his swing this spring.

blogs.fangraphs.com

 

[Dr.Funk]

 

[The Nemesis]

They haven't indicated who's getting cut to make room on the 40-man for Vogelbach, have they?

 

[Bjindaho]

They haven't indicated who's getting cut to make room on the 40-man for Vogelbach, have they?

No, and given how strong the Jays 40 man is (which is weird to even think), it isn't the easiest decision.

I'd be leaning Parsons, due to age (last waiver eligible), and the relative depth at SP.

Here's the 40 man:

https://www.mlb.com/bluejays/roster/40-man

Every single position player (outside of Jimenez) could see time this year, and they are all pieces of decent value. For pitchers, Parsons, Little, Macko, Zulueta, and Danner are all in the minors for sure. Little, Zulueta and Danner could all be reasonable bullpen depth at some point.

The thing about Macko and Jimenez is that they are 23 and both trending in the right direction.

Edit: I also fully believe that Vogelbach is the right call right now. There was no guarantee on Votto when he was signed, and getting 1AB to this point doesn't make it somehow more likely that he will be MLB ready.

 

[Bjindaho]

 

[Suntouchable13]

Fingers crossed everything goes well for Gausman. If so, then he starts game 5 of the season?

 

[phillipmike]

Fingers crossed everything goes well for Gausman. If so, then he starts game 5 of the season?

That is the plan, he wont miss his first go around unless something happens today. So ready to pitch game 5. I think they preferred Kikuchi to go game 5 to get Houston with all their lefties. But i wonder if, they go Berrios-Kikuchi-Bassitt-Francis-Gausman, so Kikuchi gets the last game against Houston.

 

[Bjindaho]

That is the plan, he wont miss his first go around unless something happens today. So ready to pitch game 5. I think they preferred Kikuchi to go game 5 to get Houston with all their lefties. But i wonder if, they go Berrios-Kikuchi-Bassitt-Francis-Gausman, so Kikuchi gets the last game against Houston.

Technically, we are still in line to do almost anything. Gausman is the only guy not lined up to be able to start any Tampa game.

 

[Leaf Rocket]

 

[Puckstuff]

Does anyone have a defensive scouting report on Barger at 3B and LF?

If he rakes in Buffalo that’s a real interesting call up option at arguably our 2 weakest positions.

 

[Discoverer]

Does anyone have a defensive scouting report on Barger at 3B and LF?

If he rakes in Buffalo that’s a real interesting call up option at arguably our 2 weakest positions.

We saw him in RF a few times this spring and, at the very least, he has an absolute cannon.

 

[Puckstuff]

We saw him in RF a few times this spring and, at the very least, he has an absolute cannon.

I'd like to see if Barger could handle 3B. At corner outfield we at least have some options with Schneider and maybe Roden later on. A good hitting 3B to replace IKF mid season or earlier would be great.

 

[Discoverer]

I'd like to see if Barger could handle 3B. At corner outfield we at least have some options with Schneider and maybe Roden later on. A good hitting 3B to replace IKF mid season or earlier would be great.

From what I've read, he's adequate at 3B but could really shine in RF because of the arm. Either way, having an almost-ready prospect who can fill in at both of your areas of greatest needs is pretty nice.

For the record, he had a throw from RF that clocked in at 103.8 MPH a few days ago. Only two players (Doyle and Acuna) threw a ball faster than that from the OF last year. Obviously accuracy is a huge part of it, but having an elite defensive attribute like that before he's even played in the majors is pretty impressive.

 

[habamillions]

Hope all goes well for gausman. Espwciqlly now with romano and swanson starting the year on the IL. The starters will have to go longer

 

[mikeyz]

Pretty much the opening day roster is playing this afternoon minus Kirk and Vladdy

 

[Bjindaho]

I'd like to see if Barger could handle 3B. At corner outfield we at least have some options with Schneider and maybe Roden later on. A good hitting 3B to replace IKF mid season or earlier would be great.

Of the prospects, Barger and Palmagiani are the guys who would take 3B.

The Jays signed IKF with the understanding that if Barger keeps progressing, he could take the starting job (though Clement could also take it).

 

[The Nemesis]

I missed the 1st. How did Gausman look?

Biggio looked good in that first AB too. Hope he has a good year.

And lol Pirates broadcast. Kiner-Falafel. There's a marketing opportunity right there for the dome's concession stands.

 

[Bjindaho]

I missed the 1st. How did Gausman look?

Biggio looked good in that first AB too. Hope he has a good year.

And lol Pirates broadcast. Kiner-Falafel. There's a marketing opportunity right there for the dome's concession stands.

He made Cruz, Joe and Suwinski look like AAAers.

 

[Puckstuff]

Of the prospects, Barger and Palmagiani are the guys who would take 3B.

The Jays signed IKF with the understanding that if Barger keeps progressing, he could take the starting job (though Clement could also take it).

I also think they signed IKF (instead of Urshella for example) for the reason you mentioned. IKF can move around the diamond with a Barger promotion. I'm not as optimistic on Palmegiani's bat as I am Barger's though so I was hoping they would play Barger more at 3B then LF.

 

[Bjindaho]

Parmesan!

 

[TheMadHatTrick]

View attachment 841267

Went from being the modern Babe Ruth, to the modern Pete Rose.

 

[hockeywiz542]

 

[The Nemesis]

Loser team finishes the spring with a loss. I don't even know why they're pretending they're trying