Jays are in a tough division but I like their chances at the playoffs. I see the division as
Baltimore - I like their hitters and adding Burnes is a big plus for them. They will miss Bautista in the 9th. He was unreal last year. If Burnes falters or gets injured then it's a concern for them.
Toronto - Springer, Vladdy, Kirk, and Varsho have better years. Not too concerned with the bats. Jays have nice depth as well, better than last year. I am hoping the farm system does well because any holes that need fixing prior to the deadline, they then have options to make trades.
New York - Getting Soto is a huge add for them. However, Judge likely can't stay healthy due to his CF play, and losing Cole for a longish period is a big blow. Rodon had a mediocre spring. I don't like their depth on the offense side either.
Tampa - Tampa is Tampa but losing the big pieces they did, especially Franco sets them back this year.
Boston - Good team but in a tough division. Just don't have enough top players.