Dreger: Speculation that Panarin asking price is just over $12 million a season

[BB88]

Damn these contracts are stupid pricey now. Panarin is probably around a top 10 winger in the league and he is getting Mcdavid money? You just have to wonder what a player like Lafreniere will get in 4 years. The cap is rising at a slower pace than the price of heavy contracts being signed.

Toews/Kane got 10.5M years ago so.

 

[Castle8130]

Toews/Kane got 10.5M years ago so.

Completely different story. Kane and Toews were signed massive contracts because they were the core of a team that would continuously go on deep playoff runs which won them two cups before they signed the contract, and a 3rd after they signed. Kane and Toews arguably hold more value to contending teams at 10.5 mil each than Panarin does at 12 mil at todays salary cap.

 

[JerseyMike34]

For what reason? The cap is working out exactly how the owners want

There are going to be a lot of players that are priced out.

The players playing 2nd/3rd line minutes are going to want to get paid $7-8M a season. Which just won't happen.
The Maximum amount that can be spent on NHL Contracts is: $2,526.500,000

There are 1134 players under contract. (some on 2 way deals, and in the AHL and all that jazz, I understand)

The top 150 players make: $1,024,088,305 - Almost half.
The next 151-300 players make: $631,330,499

That leaves about 800 players fighting over just over $900,000,000

And that's if EVERY team spends to the cap. Which we all know will never happen. (Last year was $2.337B)

I'm just saying the infighting for the NHLPA is going to be nuts.

 

[JayfromNB1219]

I love Bread, but these contracts are insane.



Do you even know what that word means?

I didn't realize Ferris was Panarin's agent too lmao...it's getting a bit ridiculous

 

[JayfromNB1219]

Is this the guy who flaps like a bird
He's good

That was Lars Eller wasn't it...

 

[Seanaconda]

For what reason? The cap is working out exactly how the owners want

He said the players , aka all the guys that are gonna get squeezed because they aren't that good vs the stars

 

[The Land 216]

It may cause him to return to
Columbus. Florida has so many spots to fill to pay him and bob I think

 

[Revelation]

This is just irresponsible commentary. Any team looking to add Mitch, for the sake of argument, will draft 20+ all four years. For some perspective, lets look at the 12-17 drafts, 18 and 19 are both too young of draft classes to really judge, but I think this should be paint a good picture.

Yeah for the "sake of argument" I don't think Burke expected to give up a 2nd and a 7th overall for Kessel or Ottawa give up a 4th overall for Duchene either, especially coming off a Conference Finals season. Even Blues gave up an out of the playoffs 1st for Schenn that could have been a lottery pick with some luck.

You can also trade those 1st rounders down to 2nd rounders and now have a pool of Aho, Carlo, DeBrincat, Dermott or Girard like players to choose from as well

From 20-30/31 overall, the following players of note were drafted.

Maatta/Skjei/Pearson (10 picks)
Mantha/Burakovsky/Theodore/Hartman (10 picks)
Schmaltz/Fabbri/Kapanen/Pastrnak (10 picks)
Boeser/Konecny (1o picks)
Jones/Steel/Borgstrom (10 picks)
Thomas/Poehling/Frost/Tolvanen (11 picks)

So in 61 picks over those SIX drafts, there were only 20 'notable' picks. Some journeymen, some kids who could end up being decent players (Juulsen as an example for Montreal) but those are the NHL regulars, NHL 'stars', or players who could very likely turn out to be major plays (Top6/Top4)

So with that having been said, there is an approximately 30% chance that a team picking 20+ across those six years would have selected one of those players; the other 70% of the time you're picking someone not worth this list.

Across four years, with perfect luck, you're getting FOUR of those players.

Across four years, with terrible luck, you're getting ZERO of those players

Across four years, with AVERAGE luck, you are getting 1.3 of those players.

Let's say you could have any TWO of those players --- if you remove Pastrnak who is the outlier, I don't think any package of those two players get you Mitch Marner.

I would argue that for MOST of those players, I wouldn't even take a package of THREE of them for Marner. (Would you take Kapanen, Fabbri and Pearson or Maatta for Marner? Nope)

Sure, you could get the next Pastrnak --- hell, maybe you can get four of them with your first round picks... but it's not going to happen.

The dangers from trading first round picks is that if you aren't attempting to add to your cupboards, its very likely you run them dry (see: Toronto currently) but for a team like say Montreal who has tons of prospect depth, giving up four first round picks for Marner is a good deal. A fantastic deal, even.

Marner doesn't just cost four 1st rounders, he also costs 11 million in cap room which can be spent in all sorts of ways to get Marner like impact, be it by signing for a Panarin or trading secondary assets for a Subban or O'Reilly.

Interesting you bring up Olli Maatta. Was on pace to become a legit top pairing defenseman... then got cancer out of nowhere. I guess Marner must be immune to cancer. I mean, Phil Kessel, his closest comparable in all this also got cancer, but no way could it happen to Marner. Nor can he tear his ACL like Fabbri and take years to recover and hopefully get back to what he was. Nope, Marner is immune from any potential debilitating injuries unlike the 1st round picks dealt for him.

Any team that gives up 4 first round picks for any player short of Connor McDavid (or maybe Matthews if he consistently played 80+ games a year) is automatically behind the 8 ball compared to teams that leverage that cap space and draft picks separately. Other teams will have the assets to pull away from them over the following years and they'll be stuck like Burke/Nonis era Leafs having to play catch up and hit home runs trying to turn shit into gold just to even the playing field. Even for Montreal would getting Marner really be better than say getting Duchene for the same $$$$ while having the picks to address their crappy LD situation?

 

[Chardo]

I didn't realize Ferris was Panarin's agent too lmao...it's getting a bit ridiculous

Save Ferris

 

[Connor McConnor]

Stone got $9.5 there is no way he gets more than $10.5

 

[Tawnos]

That is still close to a $6.5 million difference on a 7 year deal. Add to that cost of living between the two cities, and it adds up. I mean we are still talking about a player making $6+ million a year after taxes, so losing some money over time might be irrelevant to that player.

It is, though a player like Panarin might have at least twice as much endorsement opportunity in NYC. Not $6.5m over 7 years, though. I think Nash had something like $150k in endorsements per year.

 

[Chaos2k7]

It may cause him to return to
Columbus. Florida has so many spots to fill to pay him and bob I think

Such as?

 

[Chaos2k7]

Stone got $9.5 there is no way he gets more than $10.5

Tallon was also in on that at the deadline, with the money to extend Stone too.

 

[Waivers]

Rangers get Panarin, Isles get Bob. Both can live in New York and hang out when they have time.

 

[Kimota]

Panarin is a much better more valuable player than Duchene.

That may not be the case for someone that needs a center

 

[The Land 216]

Such as?

Such as they only have 14 players on the roster so spending everything on 2 players and still needing some isn’t that easy

 

[QJL]

Damn these contracts are stupid pricey now. Panarin is probably around a top 10 winger in the league and he is getting Mcdavid money? You just have to wonder what a player like Lafreniere will get in 4 years. The cap is rising at a slower pace than the price of heavy contracts being signed.

How many wingers would you definitively take over Panarin for the next 7 years? Kucherov is the only lock for me.

Panarin is in that next tier with Kane (due to age), Marner, Rantanen, Tarasenko, and Stone.

Panarin is a top 5 winger. With the current cap, he’s undoubtedly worth 8 figures.

 

[Castle8130]

How many wingers would you definitively take over Panarin for the next 7 years? Kucherov is the only lock for me.

Panarin is in that next tier with Kane (due to age), Marner, Rantanen, Tarasenko, and Stone.

Panarin is a top 5 winger. With the current cap, he’s undoubtedly worth 8 figures.

I'm not saying Panarin isnt a great winger in the NHL, but Connor Mcdavid signed a $12.5 mil cntract and is by far better than Panarin. Also, Kane is deeper into his contract than Panarin and slightly less than 3 years older than Panarin. Kane is the better player between the two, and I'd take Hall over Panarin too.

Players contracts are just going up rapidly

 

[QJL]

I'm not saying Panarin isnt a great winger in the NHL, but Connor Mcdavid signed a $12.5 mil cntract and is by far better than Panarin. Also, Kane is deeper into his contract than Panarin and slightly less than 3 years older than Panarin. Kane is the better player between the two, and I'd take Hall over Panarin too.

Players contracts are just going up rapidly

I don’t think anyone believes McDavid didn’t take a discount. Of course he’s superior.

I challenge you to not think about the $ amount but rather the percentage of cap. Panarin at $11m is in line with what top UFA wingers have received in the recent past when it comes to percentage of cap.

 

[PensandCaps]

Completely different story. Kane and Toews were signed massive contracts because they were the core of a team that would continuously go on deep playoff runs which won them two cups before they signed the contract, and a 3rd after they signed. Kane and Toews arguably hold more value to contending teams at 10.5 mil each than Panarin does at 12 mil at todays salary cap.

Panarin right now is better than toews ever was.

 

[Castle8130]

Panarin right now is better than toews ever was.

@PensandCaps : Thinks... What will piss this guy off the most to get my point across? (looks at avatar), then posts.

No, I do not agree with you at all because Toews is worth more to the hawks than Panarin ever was. Panarin is a quality player, but points/game do not dictate what a player is worth. I still think Panarin plays a good game, but Toews plays well everywhere. Toews in his prime was at a higher compete level than Panarin was in these playoffs.

 

[BrockLobster]

Rangers get Panarin, Isles get Bob. Both can live in New York and hang out when they have time.

I dont like that at all..

 

[BrockLobster]

Panarin right now is better than toews ever was.

Jonathan not devon...

 

[Chaos2k7]

Such as they only have 14 players on the roster so spending everything on 2 players and still needing some isn’t that easy

Maybe take a look at the organizational depth or ask some actual fans before assuming, lol.

Whole core signed long term, many many ELCs to supplement the roster from high draft picks, only question remaining is what forward is flipped to even out the D core.

Barkov, Huby, Panarin, Dadonov, and Trocheck might be the best top 5 forward group in the Eastern Conference, if no Panarin Hoffman stays and we are still in the top 3-4 teams in the East in forward depth.

 

[Revelation]

Stone got $9.5 there is no way he gets more than $10.5

Over 8 years on pretty much a dream team for him that came off a finals appearance. And as endlessly hyped as Stone is with people pretending he's the winger version of Guy Carbonneau just so that they can pat themselves on the back for being sophisticated hockey fans who recognize defensive acumen, Panarin is the better player