Dreger: Speculation that Panarin asking price is just over $12 million a season

[Seanaconda]

What are your other options though overpay player X by 2M(who makes anywhere from 6-8M) or overpay Panarin by 2M

And looking at the ufas this year panarin is probably at twice as good as whoever you are overpaying otherwise. Hes the best ufa to hit the market since tavares I cant see him getting less than 11 anywhere but Florida.


Like maybe Florida can seduce him with a nmc in a tax free state he wants to live in / has dadanov and coach q and can sign Bob at the same time. I think the 12 is more for the other teams that want to try and pull him aka the avs, isles , whoever

 

[CupsOverCash]

Panarin is a great player but 12? Damn. Doubt a team gives him that.

 

[Revelation]

So 11/30 picks were like Mitch Marner, great! But I don't think it makes sense to include top 10 picks into the equation (which most of the players you listed were drafted from) because it's a very safe chance that the team signing Panarin won't ever be in the position to draft a high-end talent like Marner. The chances of a late first becoming "as good as Marner" aren't nearly as optimistic as you insinuate.

That's what Burke thought about trading 1st for Kessel too. And Ottawa for Duchene. And St. Louis was lucky not to have given up a lottery first for Schenn last year.

Panarin + 4 firsts (which in the right hands can net at least one Pastrnak, Aho or Boeser) are overwhelmly better to have than Marner. I'd go as far as say I'd rather have Panarin at 14 plus 4 firsts than Marner at 10.5

 

[Il Stugotz]

I would love for just once for all teams GM's who are pursuing him to corner him at let's say $10 million per year for 7 years and see which team he chooses(I know realistically it will never happen).

Love to violate labor laws

 

[Green Blank Stare]

Would be thrilled if Vancouver met his demands.

 

[Jesus comma Brodin]

If he’ll come to Minnesota, I’ll give him that and my house that’s 6 blocks from the rink.

 

[BrockLobster]

He hasn't even won a single round in the playoffs, playing beside elite talent, put him with average linemates and I bet his stats wouldn't be as hyped? Don't get me wrong, he is AWESOME! with epic vision, but COME ON... he aint worth 11.5 puckin mil

Pretty sure the jackets won a round this year. Its was a big story.

 

[BrockLobster]

Wow...push NYR out of the UFA market. Who can pay more than NYR? TOR? They are up against the cap already...

The islanders can.

 

[Matt Rentfree]

If he’ll come to Minnesota, I’ll give him that and my house that’s 6 blocks from the rink.

If you ever bump into Paul Westerberg and get his autograph, I'll buy it off of you.

 

[Huck Cheever]

12.5 per in NY post tax is ~6.3
12.5 per in COL post tax is ~7.3
12.5 per in FLA post tax is ~7.9

NY realistically offers 11 which is ~5.5 take home $$$.

 

[Tawnos]

12.5 per in NY post tax is ~6.3
12.5 per in COL post tax is ~7.3
12.5 per in FLA post tax is ~7.9

NY realistically offers 11 which is ~5.5 take home $$$.

This is not accurate.

 

[Huck Cheever]

This is not accurate.

Using cap friendly app

Sorry you don't know " ~ " means approximately. If you don't know what approximately means you can Google that one, can't do everything for you.

 

[Huck Cheever]

This is not accurate.

Sorry you don't know the difference between state tax and federal.

 

[DistantThunderRep]

Sorry you don't know the difference between state tax and federal.

Doesn't take into account potential jock tax, bonuses, and where the player declares primary residence. It's not as simple as $$ x tax = Pay.

 

[Crede777]

Sorry you don't know the difference between state tax and federal.

The cap friendly app isn't accurate for take home.

First, player income is taxed based on where they are playing that night.

Second, it doesn't account for escrow based on the CBA.

Third, it doesn't differentiate between bonuses and salary.

 

[Tawnos]

Using cap friendly app

Sorry you don't know " ~ " means approximately. If you don't know what approximately means you can Google that one, can't do everything for you.

Sorry you don't know the difference between state tax and federal.

The Cap Friendly app isn't accurate. It assumes the tax rate in one state applies to a player's entire salary, which is entirely incorrect. Players don't pay state taxes for any games they play in Florida, for example.. plus as @DistantThunderRep mentioned, there are other issues involved. If the Rangers are offering Panarin a different signing bonus than Florida offers, that changes the calculation too since the bonus would be taxed at the local rate... one example.

The numbers you provided aren't approximately accurate, either.

 

[pb1300]

Doesn't take into account potential jock tax, bonuses, and where the player declares primary residence. It's not as simple as $$ x tax = Pay.

Primary residence only pertains to endorsement deals, not salary from the team that player plays for.

 

[DistantThunderRep]

Primary residence only pertains to endorsement deals, not salary from the team that player plays for.

Signing bonus accounts for that. A signing bonus is taxed by primary residence. Hence why some players who play in tax free states prefer to take a signing bonus heavy contract with minimum salary.

EDIT: Should say, you are also correct though.

 

[Mackiaveli]

plus 4 first rounders each of which can be as good as Mitch Marner

This is just irresponsible commentary. Any team looking to add Mitch, for the sake of argument, will draft 20+ all four years. For some perspective, lets look at the 12-17 drafts, 18 and 19 are both too young of draft classes to really judge, but I think this should be paint a good picture.

From 20-30/31 overall, the following players of note were drafted.

Maatta/Skjei/Pearson (10 picks)
Mantha/Burakovsky/Theodore/Hartman (10 picks)
Schmaltz/Fabbri/Kapanen/Pastrnak (10 picks)
Boeser/Konecny (1o picks)
Jones/Steel/Borgstrom (10 picks)
Thomas/Poehling/Frost/Tolvanen (11 picks)

So in 61 picks over those SIX drafts, there were only 20 'notable' picks. Some journeymen, some kids who could end up being decent players (Juulsen as an example for Montreal) but those are the NHL regulars, NHL 'stars', or players who could very likely turn out to be major plays (Top6/Top4)

So with that having been said, there is an approximately 30% chance that a team picking 20+ across those six years would have selected one of those players; the other 70% of the time you're picking someone not worth this list.

Across four years, with perfect luck, you're getting FOUR of those players.

Across four years, with terrible luck, you're getting ZERO of those players

Across four years, with AVERAGE luck, you are getting 1.3 of those players.

Let's say you could have any TWO of those players --- if you remove Pastrnak who is the outlier, I don't think any package of those two players get you Mitch Marner.

I would argue that for MOST of those players, I wouldn't even take a package of THREE of them for Marner. (Would you take Kapanen, Fabbri and Pearson or Maatta for Marner? Nope)

Sure, you could get the next Pastrnak --- hell, maybe you can get four of them with your first round picks... but it's not going to happen.

The dangers from trading first round picks is that if you aren't attempting to add to your cupboards, its very likely you run them dry (see: Toronto currently) but for a team like say Montreal who has tons of prospect depth, giving up four first round picks for Marner is a good deal. A fantastic deal, even.

 

[Huck Cheever]

The Cap Friendly app isn't accurate. It assumes the tax rate in one state applies to a player's entire salary, which is entirely incorrect. Players don't pay state taxes for any games they play in Florida, for example.. plus as @DistantThunderRep mentioned, there are other issues involved. If the Rangers are offering Panarin a different signing bonus than Florida offers, that changes the calculation too since the bonus would be taxed at the local rate... one example.

The numbers you provided aren't approximately accurate, either.

Since you want to chime in and you obviously work at one of the "Big 5" then please enlighten us and show us the correct calculations...

 

[Tawnos]

Since you want to chime in and you obviously work at one of the "Big 5" then please enlighten us and show us the correct calculations...

Considering we don't know the structures of the deals, I don't see how I would be able to, even if I had a spreadsheet that would allocate the proper tax rates to each game. Something I'm not going to spend the time doing.

The difference between playing for the Rangers and playing for the Panthers is definitely closer than ~$1.6m per year.

 

[Jesus comma Brodin]

If you ever bump into Paul Westerberg and get his autograph, I'll buy it off of you.

Only if Arty signs.

 

[Seanaconda]

The cap friendly app isn't accurate for take home.

First, player income is taxed based on where they are playing that night.

Second, it doesn't account for escrow based on the CBA.

Third, it doesn't differentiate between bonuses and salary.

Escrow if the cap keeps going up and they don't use their escalator shouldn't be a huge problem . They just have a hold on their money till revenue is calculated at the end of the year

 

[Huck Cheever]

Considering we don't know the structures of the deals, I don't see how I would be able to, even if I had a spreadsheet that would allocate the proper tax rates to each game. Something I'm not going to spend the time doing.

The difference between playing for the Rangers and playing for the Panthers is definitely closer than ~$1.6m per year.

That number is not accurate...

 

[Tawnos]

That number is not accurate...

You clearly don't have a very good handle on the topic. I'm going to let it go.