Dreger: Speculation that Panarin asking price is just over $12 million a season

[Huck Cheever]

You clearly don't have a very good handle on the topic. I'm going to let it go.

You claimed i wasn't accurate, let's see your numbers then mr. Big 5 partner

 

[Tawnos]

You claimed i wasn't accurate, let's see your numbers then mr. Big 5 partner

The difference is probably somewhere on the Panthers side of splitting that in half. So I'd guess maybe about $900k difference. But this is without any work done to verify that number.

 

[Huck Cheever]

The difference is probably somewhere on the Panthers side of splitting that in half. So I'd guess maybe about $900k difference. But this is without any work done to verify that number.

If you want to bring up accuracy then don't come at me with ball park numbers.

 

[Revelation]

This is just irresponsible commentary. Any team looking to add Mitch, for the sake of argument, will draft 20+ all four years. For some perspective, lets look at the 12-17 drafts, 18 and 19 are both too young of draft classes to really judge, but I think this should be paint a good picture.

From 20-30/31 overall, the following players of note were drafted.

Maatta/Skjei/Pearson (10 picks)
Mantha/Burakovsky/Theodore/Hartman (10 picks)
Schmaltz/Fabbri/Kapanen/Pastrnak (10 picks)
Boeser/Konecny (1o picks)
Jones/Steel/Borgstrom (10 picks)
Thomas/Poehling/Frost/Tolvanen (11 picks)

So in 61 picks over those SIX drafts, there were only 20 'notable' picks. Some journeymen, some kids who could end up being decent players (Juulsen as an example for Montreal) but those are the NHL regulars, NHL 'stars', or players who could very likely turn out to be major plays (Top6/Top4)

So with that having been said, there is an approximately 30% chance that a team picking 20+ across those six years would have selected one of those players; the other 70% of the time you're picking someone not worth this list.

Across four years, with perfect luck, you're getting FOUR of those players.

Across four years, with terrible luck, you're getting ZERO of those players

Across four years, with AVERAGE luck, you are getting 1.3 of those players.

Let's say you could have any TWO of those players --- if you remove Pastrnak who is the outlier, I don't think any package of those two players get you Mitch Marner.

I would argue that for MOST of those players, I wouldn't even take a package of THREE of them for Marner. (Would you take Kapanen, Fabbri and Pearson or Maatta for Marner? Nope)

Sure, you could get the next Pastrnak --- hell, maybe you can get four of them with your first round picks... but it's not going to happen.

The dangers from trading first round picks is that if you aren't attempting to add to your cupboards, its very likely you run them dry (see: Toronto currently) but for a team like say Montreal who has tons of prospect depth, giving up four first round picks for Marner is a good deal. A fantastic deal, even.

Yeah that "sake of argument" got Toronto and Ottawa giving up lottery picks when they were soooo sure they'd be playoff bound. You're also losing 4 1st round picks plus 11 million cap space which on its own is enough to sign a Marner comparable or trade peanuts for similar high impact player like NJ did with Subban or St. Louis with O'Reilly

Also Olli Maata was on pace to be a premier top pairing defenseman until he got cancer outWof nowhere. What stops Marner from getting cancer, or getting his wrist shredded like Semin had back in the day?

Any team that invests this much in any player short of Connor McDavid is gonna be way behind the 8 ball compared to other teams that manage picks and cap space spare and responsibly

 

[Tawnos]

If you want to bring up accuracy then don't come at me with ball park numbers.

If you want to make a point, make sure your numbers are accurate before you do. Even ballparking, my number is more accurate than yours. Give it a rest.

 

[drktmplr12]

If you want to bring up accuracy then don't come at me with ball park numbers.

his intent is not to prove you wrong. its to be sure other readers don't think that a shitty calculator on capfriendly can be used to approximate take home pay because the generalizations are valid only for a small subset of contracts. furthermore, a little bit of tax planning goes a long way. these guys aren't filing 1040-ez's. get it?

 

[JohnnyJacket13]

Columbus is probably the only team that would be happy to extend Panarin an offer of 100M/12.5M AAV

 

[Huck Cheever]

If you want to make a point, make sure your numbers are accurate before you do. Even ballparking, my number is more accurate than yours. Give it a rest.

Difference is I said my numbers were approximate... you should learn the difference

 

[Tawnos]

his intent is not to prove you wrong. its to be sure other readers don't think that a ****ty calculator on capfriendly can be used to approximate take home pay because the generalizations are valid only for a small subset of contracts. furthermore, a little bit of tax planning goes a long way. these guys aren't filing 1040-ez's. get it?

You wanna know something hilarious? CapFriendly literally JUST updated their income tax calculator in the last half hour and it now incorporates local tax rates. The updated difference between the Rangers and the Panthers? $892,052.

That's assuming no signing bonuses, so all things being equal, I was pretty damn close.

 

[Rivet52]

Panarin is a much better player than Skinner.

While they’re different types of players, no doubt about that. Which is probably going to put him at at least $10 million AAV. I wouldnt go much higher if I was a GM, as good as Panarin is.

 

[drktmplr12]

You wanna know something hilarious? CapFriendly literally JUST updated their income tax calculator in the last half hour and it now incorporates local tax rates. The updated difference between the Rangers and the Panthers? $892,052.

That's assuming no signing bonuses, so all things being equal, I was pretty damn close.

that said, the stated $1.6 is 77% higher than $900k. pretty good for an approximation

 

[pb1300]

You wanna know something hilarious? CapFriendly literally JUST updated their income tax calculator in the last half hour and it now incorporates local tax rates. The updated difference between the Rangers and the Panthers? $892,052.

That's assuming no signing bonuses, so all things being equal, I was pretty damn close.

That is still close to a $6.5 million difference on a 7 year deal. Add to that cost of living between the two cities, and it adds up. I mean we are still talking about a player making $6+ million a year after taxes, so losing some money over time might be irrelevant to that player.

 

[iFan]

I’d rather pay Panarin 12 million than to have Ericksson and Sutter for 10.3 million. Benning you’re horrible.

 

[MikeK]

Am I ever glad my team isn't in the running for his services.

 

[TaketheCannoli]

All of a sudden 10M for Duchene doesn't seem so bad. lol

Panarin is a much better more valuable player than Duchene.

 

[BrockLobster]

Difference is I said my numbers were approximate... you should learn the difference

Are you this abrasive in every post you make? Bring it down a notch bud.

 

[Shnooks]

Package deal for Bob and Bread=23 million.

Paying a goalie anything over $7M is insane...even that is a lot for a goalie.

I'd love to know what Hasek would make today, if Bobrovsky is getting $11M...Hasek would be worth twice that much, especially after winning the Hart Trophy.

Dude's resume is astounding...
Hasek's deep list of career awards and records - Sportsnet.ca

Watching him play was the greatest sports memory of my life...he's the reason I started to love hockey so much.

(Now I just need to figure out a way to get my Hasek jersey signed so I can frame it. Lol.)

 

[BrockLobster]

Paying a goalie anything over $7M is insane...even that is a lot for a goalie.

I'd love to know what Hasek would make today, if Bobrovsky is getting $11M...Hasek would be worth twice that much, especially after winning the Hart Trophy.

Dude's resume is astounding...
Hasek's deep list of career awards and records - Sportsnet.ca

Watching him play was the greatest sports memory of my life...he's the reason I started to love hockey so much.

(Now I just need to figure out a way to get my Hasek jersey signed so I can frame it. Lol.)

99% of goalies are the same. Thats why paying them big contracts is a terrible idea....except for hasek. He was amazing. A league of his own. And probably worth 12 mil a year these days....

 

[ViD]

Columbus is probably the only team that would be happy to extend Panarin an offer of 100M/12.5M AAV

I feel given how thin this UFA market is on elite forwards we will be surprised

 

[Chardo]

Only half the salary is taxable in the home state. On a 12 million salary, a player in NY would have an effective state tax rate of just over 8%, so he would pay only about 500k more income tax than a player in Florida.

The tax issue is very overblown.

 

[nyscene]

You wanna know something hilarious? CapFriendly literally JUST updated their income tax calculator in the last half hour and it now incorporates local tax rates. The updated difference between the Rangers and the Panthers? $892,052.

That's assuming no signing bonuses, so all things being equal, I was pretty damn close.

Cap friendly, up until very recently, used to assume that all NYR and NYI players lived in the city as well, so they would plop NYC income tax (which only applies to NYC residents) on the tax bill as well.

CF is a fantastic site, but its definitely not perfect.

 

[JerseyMike34]

The NHLPA is going to have some serious infighting the next work stoppage.

 

[BrockLobster]

The NHLPA is going to have some serious infighting the next work stoppage.

For what reason? The cap is working out exactly how the owners want

 

[Castle8130]

Damn these contracts are stupid pricey now. Panarin is probably around a top 10 winger in the league and he is getting Mcdavid money? You just have to wonder what a player like Lafreniere will get in 4 years. The cap is rising at a slower pace than the price of heavy contracts being signed.

 

[DistantThunderRep]

Since you want to chime in and you obviously work at one of the "Big 5" then please enlighten us and show us the correct calculations...

That number is not accurate...

You claimed i wasn't accurate, let's see your numbers then mr. Big 5 partner

If you want to bring up accuracy then don't come at me with ball park numbers.

Difference is I said my numbers were approximate... you should learn the difference