Speculation: Speculation: Roster Building Thread - Part XXIV

[Chalfdiggity3]

Are you really criticizing Zibanejad for inconsistency in your defense of Chris Kreider?

Im critizing the facts about Zibs play if you actual read what i wrote. The only similarities between the two players is their age and there length of contract that will hurt this team in the long run. Sorry but i dont want to just hand zibs a blank check and an unlimited amount of years. He will decline hard and if he is making 9-10m per year his buyout will be harder than anything weve already bought out. I DO NOT WANT MORE DEAD CAP SPACE esp when we will be competing for a cup and need to pay our home grown talent in Kakko, Laf, and others.

 

[LokiDog]

Im critizing the facts about Zibs play if you actual read what i wrote. The only similarities between the two players is their age and there length of contract that will hurt this team in the long run. Sorry but i dont want to just hand zibs a blank check and an unlimited amount of years. He will decline hard and if he is making 9-10m per year his buyout will be harder than anything weve already bought out. I DO NOT WANT MORE DEAD CAP SPACE esp when we will be competing for a cup and need to pay our home grown talent in Kakko, Laf, and others.

We also won’t be competing for a Cup if we let Zibanejad walk and then trade a bunch of assets for an Eichel, Barkov, Larkin, etc.


This roster, minus:

Miller/Lundkvist
Kravtsov/Chytil
Zibanejad
Strome?

and plus Eichel, at 10M isn’t going to be more competitive than keeping all of those players and giving Mika 8.7 x8. If he’s a problem in years 6-8, so be it. Cross that bridge when you get there. Right now, sans his Covid slump, he’s pacing for 50+ goals and 100+ points each of the past two years. Doubt he’s about to crash down to being a 50 point player in the next 3-4 years.

 

[Chalfdiggity3]

Not for nothing, but this doesn't address that poster's concern (which I don't really agree with) in the way you think it does. That poster and you would both be correct if, in a 100-game sample, Zibanejad had 5 11-game goal droughts.

Thank you @Tawnos thats what im talking about. But anyway i hope we resign him im just worried about the years and length. If we can get him on a Coutierer deal then im all in. If its more money we didnt do our job. If its more money then it NEEDS to be 5-6 years. Years 6,7, and 8 are the years im worried about. If he is making 10m per his buyout will be huge and for 6 years! I DO NOT WANT THAT ON OUR BOOKS . We have to be smart about this

 

[Chalfdiggity3]

We also won’t be competing for a Cup if we let Zibanejad walk and then trade a bunch of assets for an Eichel, Barkov, Larkin, etc.


This roster, minus:

Miller/Lundkvist
Kravtsov/Chytil
Zibanejad
Strome?

and plus Eichel, at 10M isn’t going to be more competitive than keeping all of those players and giving Mika 8.7 x8. If he’s a problem in years 6-8, so be it. Cross that bridge when you get there. Right now, sans his Covid slump, he’s pacing for 50+ goals and 100+ points each of the past two years. Doubt he’s about to crash down to being a 50 point player in the next 3-4 years.

Oh i agree! i mean Larkin would not cost the same as Eichel and Barkov. and we can find better 2 way centers to go with our talented wingers. See i dont want to just say we will cross that bridge when we get to it bc thats not a plan. There is no gaurentee that the cap will go up and having 6m dollars in buyouts money hurting us then, when we need to sign our own players. Honestly i do see him slipping after 5 years and its not gonna be pretty in my eyes.

Im not saying we shouldnt try to resign him. But im also trying to say is we need to be careful with the length and amount of his next contract.

 

[Tawnos]

Perfectly true, but if we’re using a hypothetical 11 game drought to illustrate a point, than Matthews, the run away top goal scorer in this model, has 4 11 game droughts. Very few players are scoring above the frequency Mika is. He’s about as consistent a goal scorer as you could hope for. Only Matthews, Ovie and McDavid scoring in a higher percentage of games.

Edit: and these stats include a 3 goal in 27 game stretch which MAY (and may not) truly be attributable to Covid struggles. If Mika genuinely struggled during that stretch due to residual effects of Covid, his percentage would actually be much higher realistically.

I think the point was that Zibanejad has the 5 11-game droughts and Matthews, for example, doesn't. The more consistent scorer will have droughts that aren't as long. For example, Matthews might have eleven 4-game droughts rather than the other way around. That'd be scoring with much more consistency, but without the hot streaks.

Obviously, the distribution doesn't exactly work like this. I have no idea what the reality is. I'm just saying that the percentage of games doesn't tell the story we're trying to tell here.

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

Thank you @Tawnos thats what im talking about. But anyway i hope we resign him im just worried about the years and length. If we can get him on a Coutierer deal then im all in. If its more money we didnt do our job. If its more money then it NEEDS to be 5-6 years. Years 6,7, and 8 are the years im worried about. If he is making 10m per his buyout will be huge and for 6 years! I DO NOT WANT THAT ON OUR BOOKS . We have to be smart about this

If they sign him for 8 years they failed.

The AAV worries me less than the actual term. I'd pay more for less term than I would less money for more term. We're already in that position with Kreider, he doesn't need to form a dynamic duo with Zibanejad.

I'd do 10 over 6 years before giving him a Couturier contract (I don't want to do 6/60 either). Those extra 2 years are going to be murder.

 

[Chalfdiggity3]

Oh i agree! i mean Larkin would not cost the same as Eichel and Barkov. and we can find better 2 way centers to go with our talented wingers. See i dont want to just say we will cross that bridge when we get to it bc thats not a plan. There is no gaurentee that the cap will go up and having 6m dollars in buyouts money hurting us then, when we need to sign our own players. Honestly i do see him slipping after 5 years and its not gonna be pretty in my eyes.

Im not saying we shouldnt try to resign him. But im also trying to say is we need to be careful with the length and amount of his next contract.

Also if we gave him the deal youre suggesting at 8.7m per im all in! I just dont want to give him 10 for 8. He wants 10 he can get 5-6 years. He wants what he deserves which is what coutierer got then, golden.

 

[jay from jersey]

Not true. Here are the top 10 goal scorers since 19-20 including how many goals they scored and in what percentage of games they have scored:

1. Matthews 88 - 55%
2. Draisaitl 74 - 41%
3. Ovechkin 72 - 45%
4. Pastrnak 68 - 42%
5. McDavid 67 - 43%
6. Zibanejad 65 - 42%
7. Connor 64 - 39%
8. Aho 62 - 39%
9. Marchand 57 - 37%
10. Pacioretty 56 - 39%

Everyone is equally consistent. Matthews scores in a way higher percent of games but that is just because he scores more in general.

This is the same nonsense argument as Kreider's offensive being inconsistent. He's a 50 point player. That's what they do. If he was more consistent he'd be a better player and score more. I'm sure I can do the exact same exercise for Kreider, with similar offensive players, and get a very similar result showing he is no more inconsistent than his peers. Zibanejad scores right at the rate all the comparable goal scorers score (McDavid/Draisaitl/Ovechkin/Pastrnak). There's no difference. Just you do not watch McDavid/Draisaitl/Ovechkin/Pastrnak every single game so you don't notice the lulls.

kreider may have been on pace for his usual point totals last season, but outside of a white hot 12 game stretch he was largely a non factor.
The prior 2 years he was a much bigger factor of the overall game play even though his point total don’t show it.
Mika has similar spurts where he disappears but they are less frequent then kreids.
It was apparent last year watching him something was off. Kreids wasn’t driving to the net, his breakaways were down, and he wasn’t the usual force in front of the net on the PP. I’m hoping he was injured, because that was a terrible 1st year of a big deal.
There are def concerns with a big contract for Zibby. His point totals shouldn’t take a massive dive as long as he can still rip it on the PP. but as far as going head to head with other top line centers, I have my doubts for how long. He also has the concussion history that has definitely had an affect on the physical part of his game. Problem is, there’s really not a lot of other alternatives.
Zibby and his agent/brother know that, so he’s going to get paid. They have the market cornered currently. The only top line centers available are him and Eichel. And Zibby just cost cash.
I stick to my prediction
7years. Closer to 10 mill per
Or
8 years closer to 9 mill per
With a NMC for 5 or 6. Take it to the bank.......

 

[jay from jersey]

We also won’t be competing for a Cup if we let Zibanejad walk and then trade a bunch of assets for an Eichel, Barkov, Larkin, etc.


This roster, minus:

Miller/Lundkvist
Kravtsov/Chytil
Zibanejad
Strome?

and plus Eichel, at 10M isn’t going to be more competitive than keeping all of those players and giving Mika 8.7 x8. If he’s a problem in years 6-8, so be it. Cross that bridge when you get there. Right now, sans his Covid slump, he’s pacing for 50+ goals and 100+ points each of the past two years. Doubt he’s about to crash down to being a 50 point player in the next 3-4 years.

no. Literally the only other play would be telling Zibby we are not resigning him and convince him to waive his NMC to a playoff team who likely has a deal in place.
Then essentially your only trading Zibby + Lundkvist or Zibby+ 1st to bring Eichel in as part of a 3-team trade.
That’s the only way it gets down without shipping out a bulk of assets and losing Zibby for nothing in the process.
Eichel has his own set of concerns he’ll bring with him. His age/contract Def fits our timeline better, but finding a 3-team deal could present a huge problem. Zibby has also produced as a Ranger. That has to factor in for something. Either you look hard to make the deal, or you bite the bullet and sign which likely will be a 7-8 yr bad deal for the good of the team

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

kreider may have been on pace for his usual point totals last season, but outside of a white hot 12 game stretch he was largely a non factor.
The prior 2 years he was a much bigger factor of the overall game play even though his point total don’t show it.

Everyone knows Kreider was next level bad at ES.

Over Kreider's final 21 games, he was DEAD LAST on the team at p/60 at ES among players who played at least 100 minutes. Dead last...

Lower than Hajek.

Thats almost impossible to do. This is with top 6 minutes.

 

[jay from jersey]

Everyone knows Kreider was next level bad at ES.

Over Kreider's final 21 games, he was DEAD LAST on the team at p/60 at ES among players who played at least 100 minutes. Dead last...

Lower than Hajek.

Thats almost impossible to do. This is with top 6 minutes.

Yup he was disgusting. Yet statistically, he was right in his wheelhouse for a usual points year. That’s why everything is not just point production. He was less of an impact on the overall gameplay

 

[JohnC]

I’ve asked it before, where would you rank the Zibanejad contract situation in terms of hardest decisions the team has had to make in the cap era?

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

Yup he was disgusting. Yet statistically, he was right in his wheelhouse for a usual points year. That’s why everything is not just point production. He was less of an impact on the overall gameplay

He murdered the PP last year. That didn't change.

I don't think its possible for him to be as bad as he was at ES last year again. When you play that much, you should pick up points by accident so some of it had to be tied to bad luck. What ever was nagging him at the end of the year didn't help either but he isn't the first person to play through pain. Quinn was a moron for using him as much as he did.

But it goes beyond the production as you said. His play along the walls was as soft as I've ever seen it. It was there in spurts so its not like it's vanished completely but he just looked like he wasn't interested in competing at all at times (I think all of the C discussion is dumb, but people want to name this guy captain?)

The production will come and go as it always has with him, but those other things should be non negotiable.

 

[Modest Grouse]

If they sign him for 8 years they failed.

The AAV worries me less than the actual term. I'd pay more for less term than I would less money for more term. We're already in that position with Kreider, he doesn't need to form a dynamic duo with Zibanejad.

I'd do 10 over 6 years before giving him a Couturier contract (I don't want to do 6/60 either). Those extra 2 years are going to be murder.

If we sign him to 8 years it doesn't necessarily mean they failed. The details matter a lot. How much lower is the AAV under an 8 year deal vs. a 6 year deal? What is the structure of the contract? Is it buyout friendly? Does it contain a full or limited NMC and, if so, is it less restrictive in years 6, 7, 8?

If you believe, like me, we are close to entering a window of cup contention then there are bound to be a lot more contracts we won't like in the future. We're going to need to utilize all of our cap space and then some in the coming years assuming we are in a position to go for it as our young talent enters their prime (i.e. the Tampa Bay model). Inevitably, that will lead to future buyouts and/or cap dump deals most likely involving veterans like Kreider. It would be unfortunate 5 years from now to look back and lament not signing Zibanejad because we refused to go 8 years on a deal.

 

[EdJovanovski]

LETS GOOOO

 

[Levitate]

If they sign him for 8 years they failed.

The AAV worries me less than the actual term. I'd pay more for less term than I would less money for more term. We're already in that position with Kreider, he doesn't need to form a dynamic duo with Zibanejad.

I'd do 10 over 6 years before giving him a Couturier contract (I don't want to do 6/60 either). Those extra 2 years are going to be murder.

I think there's different schools of thought on how to do a contract like this and you'll have some people argue it's bad not to use an 8 year deal to bring down the AAV as long as you structure it in a way so you can figure out a way to get out of the contract after 5-6 years (buyout, trade, whatever)

 

[cwede]

We'll agree to disagree here.

and here you go, fans' voices have been heard

 

[Avery16]

I’ve asked it before, where would you rank the Zibanejad contract situation in terms of hardest decisions the team has had to make in the cap era?

Honestly, this is a pretty easy decision. The decisions on Hayes and Strome were harder.

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

and here you go, fans' voices have been heard

At least they listened.

 

[Amazing Kreiderman]

At least they listened.

Billion dollar organization, with unlimited resources, has to be told by fans to stream a prospect game while coming out of the first rebuild in franchise history.

 

[Avery16]

 

[Ola]

What time is the scrimmage?

 

[Lua]

What time is the scrimmage?

Tomorrow at 3 EST, Sunday at 5 EST

Rangers Roundup: Key Development Camp dates; Strome's new addition; and NHL Rumors

 

[rangers1314]

Blues sign Neal, Frolik to professional tryouts

 

[pld459666]

and here you go, fans' voices have been heard