Speculation: Speculation: Roster Building Thread - Part XXIV

[tomobson]

Just give Mika an 8yr contract and we can LTIR after year 5 or 6. I doubt Mika intends to play in the NHL for 8 yrs with all the concussions he's had in his past. He seems to have enough things going on outside of hockey that he has to look forward to after his NHL career.

 

[Barnaby]

Wow that photo, Kakko’s been hitting the drive thrus this summer! Wonder what his top 5 fast food franchises are.

He’s been hanging out with Jon Hein

 

[Barnaby]

Depends on the season he's about to have, but anything upwards of 30 pts and he might just break the bank. He'll certainly eat up that precious one million in cap space.

Kravstov isn’t factoring into resigning a 1C who paces for 100+ points and is the best center this club has had in almost 30 years.

I love Kravstov as an up and coming young player, but let’s be real. As we sit here today, Zibanejad had single games last year where he’s scored more points than Kravstov’s career total. This is vintage HF.

 

[Barnaby]

All due respect to Mika, he scores in bunches, 5 goal game here, hat trick there, and then no goals for awhile and around around the merry go round. Also he disappears in tught checking games. Thats all the playoffs are baby. I dont see him aging well but just my opinion on what i see on a 29yo center looking for a massive pay day and a long contract that im not happy about giving him.

I dont want to just throw a blank check his way with an unlimited amount of years. If we ants 9m over 6years im all about it. but anything beyond 5-6 years we will want to buy out after and honestly im tired of having dead cap space on our books

Are you really criticizing Zibanejad for inconsistency in your defense of Chris Kreider?

 

[Barnaby]

Mika's contract should be presented to him like this. We will give you 2 years, no move clause, after that theres no restrictions, youll get 2 years minimum to win a cup here, we will give you 7 years x 8.5 mill. You get a chance in our window, you get your contract and we get the ability to move on if we need the cap space after year 2.

“You’re not giving me any security? Give me 12 million per or I’m going to free agency.”

None of us like movement clauses but there is a reason guys ask for them. Want him to take a more reasonable term and AAV? The cost is security. If Mika agreed to those terms without gross financial overpayment then his agent should be fired.

 

[Tob]

I doubt Mika sees himself in another jersey. At 29, career, city, security, legacy, competitive team are all in one place. Unless Drury is lowballing him citing the last season, they'll figure it out before the season starts or at latest Christmas. You can't go into the season or deadline with no centers signed past this upcoming season.

 

[QJL]

I’m still holding out hope at some team friendly deals here. We’ve seeing them in Tampa to an extent. Kucherov, Stamkos, Hedman, Point would have all had a chance to get more on the open market.

Fox and Lafreniere seem like the types.

 

[egelband]

Kakko has seen things you people wouldn't believe. Attack ships on fire off the shoulder of Orion. He’s watched C-beams glitter in the dark near the Tannhäuser Gate. All those moments will be lost in time, like tears in rain. Time to die.

indeed. The only way you can hurt him, is to kill him.

 

[Barnaby]

I’m still holding out hope at some team friendly deals here. We’ve seeing them in Tampa to an extent. Kucherov, Stamkos, Hedman, Point would have all had a chance to get more on the open market.

Fox and Lafreniere seem like the types.

The problem is a contract like a Chris Kreider and to a lesser extent Trouba. That will cause you to have to bridge some guys then make some tough decisions. The goal should be to pay your stars (Mika, Panarin) then work on getting your top young guys paid early for the benefit of having some of those team friendly deals. Maybe you can move a Kreider after year 5, but that may have forced you to bridge a Laf, Kakko, or Lundkvist who will then seek top dollar. If you play it that way you’ll lose more young talent.

 

[jay from jersey]

The problem is a contract like a Chris Kreider and to a lesser extent Trouba. That will cause you to have to bridge some guys then make some tough decisions. The goal should be to pay your stars (Mika, Panarin) then work on getting your top young guys paid early for the benefit of having some of those team friendly deals. Maybe you can move a Kreider after year 5, but that may have forced you to bridge a Laf, Kakko, or Lundkvist who will then seek top dollar. If you play it that way you’ll lose more young talent.

Trouba is absolutely moveable when his NMC expires. He will only be 30 on a 2 year deal, still capable of eating top 4 min, moving the puck well, and playing physical. He’s also big and Right handed. There will certainly be a demand for him. The question is will Schneider be ready to full take over his duty at that point. Currently, he’s the only 1 in our system with trouba s physical build that brings the nasty on the blue line. Say NYR retains 1.5-2 mill on trouba, he should actually bring back a solid asset

 

[RangersFan1994]

Adam Fox New York Rangers NHL - TSN.ca

 

[Vitto79]

Trouba is absolutely moveable when his NMC expires. He will only be 30 on a 2 year deal, still capable of eating top 4 min, moving the puck well, and playing physical. He’s also big and Right handed. There will certainly be a demand for him. The question is will Schneider be ready to full take over his duty at that point. Currently, he’s the only 1 in our system with trouba s physical build that brings the nasty on the blue line. Say NYR retains 1.5-2 mill on trouba, he should actually bring back a solid asset

it would give Schneider 2 years in Hartford so it does line up well. I expect Robertson to do the same then ideally take Nemeths spot

 

[Kocur Dill]

Mika's contract should be presented to him like this. We will give you 2 years, no move clause, after that theres no restrictions, youll get 2 years minimum to win a cup here, we will give you 7 years x 8.5 mill. You get a chance in our window, you get your contract and we get the ability to move on if we need the cap space after year 2.

This. I'll never understand the Sather/Gorton era of giving players Top Dollar, and term, PLUS no trade/movement protection.

They were suicide contracts from the day they were signed.

 

[GAGLine]

This. I'll never understand the Sather/Gorton era of giving players Top Dollar, and term, PLUS no trade/movement protection.

They were suicide contracts from the day they were signed.

It's a negotiation. You can certainly offer less, but then when the player doesn't sign it, what do you do? You can let him walk, but then how are you replacing him? That's why having a strong farm system is so important. Back then, our farm was fallow and we were competing for the cup every year. The only options were re-sign those players, sign a UFA for the same price, or give up yet more futures in a trade.

 

[NYRFANMANI]

Adam Fox New York Rangers NHL - TSN.ca

We're all in agreeance. With the team that has been set up, our bottom D-pair and bottom-6 being way better than the past couple of seasons.

I would have loved a shot at the super talents coming these next drafts, but the window for competing is opening.

 

[Shesterkybomb]

“You’re not giving me any security? Give me 12 million per or I’m going to free agency.”

None of us like movement clauses but there is a reason guys ask for them. Want him to take a more reasonable term and AAV? The cost is security. If Mika agreed to those terms without gross financial overpayment then his agent should be fired.

Id like to know how many teams are prepared to offer Mika 12 mill? If his agent started with that nonsense Mika would fire him himself. If security is worth something then his contract should be 7 mill, because he is a 8.5 mill player, not 12. The problem is management here has been giving long term contracts, with nmc at top dollar. If playing here is worth something, and every player wants to be here then his contract should reflect that, not some 8 x9 nmc nonsense.

 

[HockeyBasedNYC]

Kakko has seen things you people wouldn't believe. Attack ships on fire off the shoulder of Orion. He’s watched C-beams glitter in the dark near the Tannhäuser Gate. All those moments will be lost in time, like tears in rain. Time to die.

Best scene ever

 

[Shesterkybomb]

It's a negotiation. You can certainly offer less, but then when the player doesn't sign it, what do you do? You can let him walk, but then how are you replacing him? That's why having a strong farm system is so important. Back then, our farm was fallow and we were competing for the cup every year. The only options were re-sign those players, sign a UFA for the same price, or give up yet more futures in a trade.

In the example of Mika you negotiate now, and if you don't get the deal you want you trade him. Simple

 

[The Crypto Guy]

This is the Rangers. We all know they will just bridge him and then suffer the consequences later.

True

 

[HonestGabe]

All due respect to Mika, he scores in bunches, 5 goal game here, hat trick there, and then no goals for awhile and around around the merry go round. Also he disappears in tught checking games. Thats all the playoffs are baby. I dont see him aging well but just my opinion on what i see on a 29yo center looking for a massive pay day and a long contract that im not happy about giving him.

I dont want to just throw a blank check his way with an unlimited amount of years. If we ants 9m over 6years im all about it. but anything beyond 5-6 years we will want to buy out after and honestly im tired of having dead cap space on our books

I disagree. Mika was a force in the playoffs back in 2017 and our best all around player. I think he needs the right linemates in those situations. In tight checking games, a Kreider - Mika - Goodrow line would probably do really well. He needs more space to generate offense and to play a game that keeps the puck lower in the zone

 

[SA16]

All due respect to Mika, he scores in bunches, 5 goal game here, hat trick there, and then no goals for awhile and around around the merry go round. Also he disappears in tught checking games. Thats all the playoffs are baby. I dont see him aging well but just my opinion on what i see on a 29yo center looking for a massive pay day and a long contract that im not happy about giving him.

I dont want to just throw a blank check his way with an unlimited amount of years. If we ants 9m over 6years im all about it. but anything beyond 5-6 years we will want to buy out after and honestly im tired of having dead cap space on our books

Not true. Here are the top 10 goal scorers since 19-20 including how many goals they scored and in what percentage of games they have scored:

1. Matthews 88 - 55%
2. Draisaitl 74 - 41%
3. Ovechkin 72 - 45%
4. Pastrnak 68 - 42%
5. McDavid 67 - 43%
6. Zibanejad 65 - 42%
7. Connor 64 - 39%
8. Aho 62 - 39%
9. Marchand 57 - 37%
10. Pacioretty 56 - 39%

Everyone is equally consistent. Matthews scores in a way higher percent of games but that is just because he scores more in general.

This is the same nonsense argument as Kreider's offensive being inconsistent. He's a 50 point player. That's what they do. If he was more consistent he'd be a better player and score more. I'm sure I can do the exact same exercise for Kreider, with similar offensive players, and get a very similar result showing he is no more inconsistent than his peers. Zibanejad scores right at the rate all the comparable goal scorers score (McDavid/Draisaitl/Ovechkin/Pastrnak). There's no difference. Just you do not watch McDavid/Draisaitl/Ovechkin/Pastrnak every single game so you don't notice the lulls.

 

[Tawnos]

Not true. Here are the top 10 goal scorers since 19-20 including how many goals they scored and in what percentage of games they have scored:

1. Matthews 88 - 55%
2. Draisaitl 74 - 41%
3. Ovechkin 72 - 45%
4. Pastrnak 68 - 42%
5. McDavid 67 - 43%
6. Zibanejad 65 - 42%
7. Connor 64 - 39%
8. Aho 62 - 39%
9. Marchand 57 - 37%
10. Pacioretty 56 - 39%

Everyone is equally consistent. Matthews scores in a way higher percent of games but that is just because he scores more in general.

This is the same nonsense argument as Kreider's offensive being inconsistent. He's a 50 point player. That's what they do. If he was more consistent he'd be a better player and score more. I'm sure I can do the exact same exercise for Kreider, with similar offensive players, and get a very similar result showing he is no more inconsistent than his peers. Zibanejad scores right at the rate all the comparable goal scorers score (McDavid/Draisaitl/Ovechkin/Pastrnak). There's no difference. Just you do not watch McDavid/Draisaitl/Ovechkin/Pastrnak every single game so you don't notice the lulls.

Not for nothing, but this doesn't address that poster's concern (which I don't really agree with) in the way you think it does. That poster and you would both be correct if, in a 100-game sample, Zibanejad had 5 11-game goal droughts.

 

[RangerBoy]

If you look at Capfriendly.com, you can see which teams are pressed up against the cap and how much flexibility the team has in future years. The Stars have the flexibility to pay Zibanejad in free agency. Pavelski and Radulov will be free agents next summer. The Stars want to re-sign Klingberg and that will be a big number. The Stars already have Seguin and Benn signed to big contracts. Do they want another late 20's/early 30's forward signed for big money?

Maybe the Blues? They just gave Parayko $6.5M. The Blues still have Tarasenko's money on their books. Tarasenko is skating with the Blues players in Missouri. Other teams want to send them their bad contract(s)for Tarasenko. The Blues have ROR free agency in 2023. The Blues need to re-sign Thomas.

All of these teams have their own players to pay. I thought about Boston. Bergeron is a free agent next summer. I read he wants to play beyond this contract. Pasternak is a free agent in 2023. That will be a huge number. Boston has to pay McAvoy next summer. That will be a huge number.

Minnesota? I heard Mike Russo on his podcast say the Wild are a money in and money out team. They have the Parise and Suter buyout money on their books. Guerin paid Fiala for one year. It will cost more long-term. Billy still needs sign Kaprizov. That will be a huge number.

The cap will be flat for the following 3-4 seasons after this season. It goes up by $1M per if the NHL reaches a certain revenue threshold.

Vegas is another money in and money out team. They have so many big commitments.

All of these teams have their own current and future commitments.

Where is the big bag of money in free agency?

 

[EdJovanovski]

 

[LokiDog]

Not for nothing, but this doesn't address that poster's concern (which I don't really agree with) in the way you think it does. That poster and you would both be correct if, in a 100-game sample, Zibanejad had 5 11-game goal droughts.

Perfectly true, but if we’re using a hypothetical 11 game drought to illustrate a point, than Matthews, the run away top goal scorer in this model, has 4 11 game droughts. Very few players are scoring above the frequency Mika is. He’s about as consistent a goal scorer as you could hope for. Only Matthews, Ovie and McDavid scoring in a higher percentage of games.

Edit: and these stats include a 3 goal in 27 game stretch which MAY (and may not) truly be attributable to Covid struggles. If Mika genuinely struggled during that stretch due to residual effects of Covid, his percentage would actually be much higher realistically.