Speculation: Speculation: Roster Building Thread - Part XXIV

[Alluckks]

What if he puts up 50 points? Nobody knows what he will do so the comment is a bit odd unless you can see the future. He was solid in his very limited time/role last season.

I just think it is a waste of time to say that Trouba and Panarin's contracts are a hindrance to re-signing Kravstov after a hypothetical season with a hypothetical contract demand

 

[SA16]

Zibanejad of 2016-19, agreed. The last two seasons were pretty poor on both sides of the puck0 at even strength, when evaluating the underlying play driving metrics. He has kept the points up due to extreme efficiency. There is no guarantee that future Zibanejad will perform like past Zibanejad.

View attachment 465141

I'm sorry but this model doesn't make sense. Mika scored 2.79 pts/60 in 19-20 and 2.21 in 20-21. He has a 57.5 GF% in 19-20 and a 52.2 GF% in 20-21. WAR is supposed to be a descriptive stat that tells you what happened in the past. It is not supposed to be a stat that tells you about the future or dives deep into underlying numbers to determine if his results were sustainable or not. His even strength offensive results were by no means about 50th and 5th percentile respectively.

So first he has an issue with his naming conventions. Second he mentions it uses "driving scoring chances for" which then neglects shooting talent and the like. Models like these always vastly underrate elite shooters like Mika or Laine or even Pat Kane.

Then we all talk about how bad Quinn's coaching was yet somehow when it comes to invisible player results suddenly Quinns "no system" is now irrelevant and it's solely on the player. Then the whole Mika covid thing gets totally neglected as well.

 

[I Eat Crow]

Won't help us an inch. Colorado gave Makar 9m/y. Fox alone will be in that ball park. We have Zibs, Krava and Kaapo to re-sign ...

Man those Trouba and Panarin contracts will be killing us.

I wouldn't worry too much. Kravtsov and Kakko can be bridged and will still be RFA when the cap starts to go up.

It's Lafreniere's 2nd contract that's going to cost lots two summers from now.

 

[NYRFANMANI]

I just think it is a waste of time to say that Trouba and Panarin's contracts are a hindrance to re-signing Kravstov after a hypothetical season with a hypothetical contract demand

That's not the entirety of what I said, more like 1/4 of my actual point. Whatever, this is an issue for next off-season.

We'll unload Georgie and Nemeth and should be fine.

 

[HatTrick Swayze]

Brad Richards - 3 seasons pre UFA (age 28-30) 216 points in 208 games...1.04 pts / game. 12th among Cs in total points, 7th in pts / game.
Mika Zibanejad - last 3 seasons (age 25-27) 199 points in 195 games...1.02 pts / game. 14th among Cs in total points, 15th in pts / game.

Both Richards was signed at 2 years older than Zibanejad will be. Earned his paycheck for 1, if I'm being generous maybe 2 years. Was an anchor by year 3. So if he follows a similar trajectory maybe Zibanejad is an ok contract for 3-4 years of his 7-8 year deal.

 

[Alluckks]

That's not the entirety of what I said, more like 1/4 of my actual point. Whatever, this is an issue for next off-season.

We'll unload Georgie and Nemeth and should be fine.

My main point of the cap thing anyway was the constant preaching it was a flat cap for 4 more years, when now we have indication that that is not the case, even if it is a measly 1 mil. It gives context for a reasonable speculation to be made that there could be further slight increases rather than just the flat cap.

I also don't think we are gonna run into much for cap issues, and if we did I think the culprit would be the Kreider contract before any other.

 

[Richard Banger]

Back to looking fat again!

Yeaahhhh… that’s not fat haha. Unless you think skinny people are “in shape”

 

[Richard Banger]

Brad Richards - 3 seasons pre UFA (age 28-30) 216 points in 208 games...1.04 pts / game. 12th among Cs in total points, 7th in pts / game.
Mika Zibanejad - last 3 seasons (age 25-27) 199 points in 195 games...1.02 pts / game. 14th among Cs in total points, 15th in pts / game.

Both Richards was signed at 2 years older than Zibanejad will be. Earned his paycheck for 1, if I'm being generous maybe 2 years. Was an anchor by year 3. So if he follows a similar trajectory maybe Zibanejad is an ok contract for 3-4 years of his 7-8 year deal.

In all fairness without Richards we don’t see a ECF and a SCF. His contract was worth it IMO.

 

[NYRFANMANI]

Brad Richards - 3 seasons pre UFA (age 28-30) 216 points in 208 games...1.04 pts / game. 12th among Cs in total points, 7th in pts / game.
Mika Zibanejad - last 3 seasons (age 25-27) 199 points in 195 games...1.02 pts / game. 14th among Cs in total points, 15th in pts / game.

Both Richards was signed at 2 years older than Zibanejad will be. Earned his paycheck for 1, if I'm being generous maybe 2 years. Was an anchor by year 3. So if he follows a similar trajectory maybe Zibanejad is an ok contract for 3-4 years of his 7-8 year deal.

Richards became an issue once his legs were (really) shot.

I'd argue Zibs' skating will uphold a little bit longer, not much longer though. 5-6 year deal could minimize the risk, but inevitably increase the cap hit.

We need to catch a break contract-wise with one of Zibs or Fox.

 

[egelband]

For as pathetic as NYR look for their weak coverage, The Athletic looks 100x worse for continuing to employ someone who is so obviously checked out.

They expect people to actually pay for Carps coverage. Hilarious.

Is that true? He hasn’t published a story in two weeks and just says “badass” on Twitter? Or is that an exaggeration? If true, that’s almost malpractice.

 

[egelband]

Kakko looks massive here holy- his genetics are crazy. His dad has a huge frame too.

edit- didn’t see this was already posted

He looks very old.

 

[Irishguy42]

Is that true? He hasn’t published a story in two weeks and just says “badass” on Twitter? Or is that an exaggeration? If true, that’s almost malpractice.

Just looking at his twitter page right now: Outside of tweeting a few things today about the released TV schedule and replies, he literally has tweeted nothing original outside of RTing mainstream hockey stuff or quote RT stuff saying some form of 'badass' all the way back to Sept 7th with a quote RT about Bob Crawford leaving the Wolf Pack PxP gig.

As for the replies, it was only...wait for it....two replies. In the same timeframe posted above.

 

[egelband]

Ravintola Hook is no 1, for sure

I miss Hagelin.

 

[aufheben]

Kakko looks massive here holy- his genetics are crazy. His dad has a huge frame too.

edit- didn’t see this was already posted

They look like bodyguards.

Edit: LMAO … legendary

 

[Synergy27]

Kakko looks massive here holy- his genetics are crazy. His dad has a huge frame too.

edit- didn’t see this was already posted

 

[aufheben]

Ravintola Hook is no 1, for sure

“OH MY GOD…HIS FEET SHRUNK…NOW HE’LL NEVER SKATE GOOD!”

~ HFNYR

 

[jay from jersey]

Brad Richards - 3 seasons pre UFA (age 28-30) 216 points in 208 games...1.04 pts / game. 12th among Cs in total points, 7th in pts / game.
Mika Zibanejad - last 3 seasons (age 25-27) 199 points in 195 games...1.02 pts / game. 14th among Cs in total points, 15th in pts / game.

Both Richards was signed at 2 years older than Zibanejad will be. Earned his paycheck for 1, if I'm being generous maybe 2 years. Was an anchor by year 3. So if he follows a similar trajectory maybe Zibanejad is an ok contract for 3-4 years of his 7-8 year deal.

this is what I’m worried about. Mika is going to get a large deal on what he’s done more so then what he’s gonna do. Zibby has def out produced his current deal. But there are reasons to be leery of a 7-8 year deal with him.
It’s a moot point though really, with the way we are currently constructed, in this timeframe for our first go around with this core, drury simply cannot let a 1C walk out the door with no replacement.
There are really only 2 options. Resign Zibby or trade for Eichel, those are the only 2 bonafide 1Cs available to NYR right now.
Both have their positives and negatives, but Zibby has the inside track currently because he’s the safer play.
It’s pretty hilarious some on here thought he’d sign for 4-5 years. Drury would have accepted that yesterday. There are 2 options in the Zibby deal.
1 7 years 9-10 mill per
Or
2 8 years and try to get the average money down to a Couturier level

Both are not ideal, but they are the realistic numbers. That’s why Eichel signed for 25-30 at 10 mill isn’t a bad idea at all. It’s the cost of assets and surgery that has teams on the fence. They are both going to make similar money for the next 5 years.
At this point, it looks as if Drury is content to give Mika the 7-8 years or we would have pushed harder for Eichel at the draft.
If I’m Drury, I wait as long as possible before offering Zibby the mega deal this year, the Eichel situation can still take an interesting turn the closer he gets to his NMC. Eichel’s age certainly fits our timeline better. Just food for thought

 

[Fitzy]

Brad Richards was never the same player after that last concussion. Even in his first two years with us he was good, but not the great player he had shown at times even for Dallas.

He was never special with us enough to set him apart from Derek Stepan or Brassard at any point.

 

[Tob]

concerned every t-shirt we've seen Kaapo in is the same one.

 

[Lindberg Cheese]

He looks very old.

Kakko has seen things you people wouldn't believe. Attack ships on fire off the shoulder of Orion. He’s watched C-beams glitter in the dark near the Tannhäuser Gate. All those moments will be lost in time, like tears in rain. Time to die.

 

[Alluckks]

concerned every t-shirt we've seen Kaapo in is the same one.

He doesn't get paid enough. He spent all his money on instant pancakes. It all went to his hips.

 

[Shesterkybomb]

Mika's contract should be presented to him like this. We will give you 2 years, no move clause, after that theres no restrictions, youll get 2 years minimum to win a cup here, we will give you 7 years x 8.5 mill. You get a chance in our window, you get your contract and we get the ability to move on if we need the cap space after year 2.

 

[Lays]

Signing Mika right now is crucial. Sets the tone that this is the group going forward. If we planned to move on from him we should have already. The Couturier deal is still fresh, Mika should get slightly higher AAV with 1-2 years less term. If Mika pops off this season, let’s say another 40 goal year and he puts up 90 points, but at the deadline we’re barely out of a playoff spot, what do we do then? Trade Mika as we’re 1-2 points out of a playoff spot and kill team morale? Or wait until the season is over and sign him at an inflated cost? What if we end up missing the playoffs and Mika just walks?

 

[BKGooner]

Kakko has seen things you people wouldn't believe. Attack ships on fire off the shoulder of Orion. He’s watched C-beams glitter in the dark near the Tannhäuser Gate. All those moments will be lost in time, like tears in rain. Time to die.

Damn Replicants.

 

[Chalfdiggity3]

All due respect but when has Kreider ever been a PPG center in his career?

All due respect to Mika, he scores in bunches, 5 goal game here, hat trick there, and then no goals for awhile and around around the merry go round. Also he disappears in tught checking games. Thats all the playoffs are baby. I dont see him aging well but just my opinion on what i see on a 29yo center looking for a massive pay day and a long contract that im not happy about giving him.

I dont want to just throw a blank check his way with an unlimited amount of years. If we ants 9m over 6years im all about it. but anything beyond 5-6 years we will want to buy out after and honestly im tired of having dead cap space on our books