Speculation: Speculation: Roster Building Thread - Part XXIV
- Thread starter Gardner McKay
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Lays
Registered User
- Jan 22, 2017
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Good move. He’s a good GM and an elite scout that’s hampered a bit by Melnyk.
Lays
Registered User
- Jan 22, 2017
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Hunt is also elite at zone entries. His numbers are among the best in the league in zone entry completion. I remember the year prior to this his zone entry numbers were on par with Panarin’s in his MVP run. And 23 points in 89 career NHL games is very solid especially for a guy who gets almost no usage offensively.
Irishguy42
Mr. Preachy
gravey9
Registered User
- Dec 29, 2008
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- 6,331
They didn't need to replace the announcer, but switching out the blown out mic would be nice.
JCProdigy
Registered User
Behold...per NaturalStatTrick...the 2019 playoffs at 5v5:
And at all-situations:
Yeah, I think we'd benefit from some context with how the Blues coaching staff valued Blais.
In 2019 (age 22 season), he was up and down splitting time between the AHL and NHL and played 32 games with TOI/GM of 9:51.
I believe he was hurt during the beginning of the playoffs but either way he didn't play until the end of the 2nd round and played in 18 of 26 games in the playoffs overall. In those 18 games he avg 11:58 min/gm which was the lowest of any player that played at least half of the teams games that playoffs. He scored 3 pts. I'm guessing the Blues felt his tenacity and hitting allowed ROR to do his thing but he wasn't producing or playing TOI wise at anything above a 3rd/4th line level.
In the subsequent two years his average ice time was just above 12 min/gm. That's Kevin Rooney territory. In the playoffs those two years, he still only averaged just over 11 min/gm (lowest and 3rd lowest of the teams regular forwards in those respective playoffs).
Then you take into account the Blues took a 25 yo RFA winger with one year of control left and had no problem trading him for a 26 yo winger and then signing said winger to a 4 yr contract. Well I just don't see that the Blues valued him as much as some here are positing.
Now, all we can do is hope that the Blues were wrong in their evaluation and Drury was right in choosing him over other possible packages that have been alluded to. Note: I have no friggin clue what those packages could be and if they would be indeed considered :"better" to some here.
- Apr 16, 2012
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Well, I mean how can we say they didn’t value him on one hand because they included him in this trade, while also saying we didn’t get enough in this trade? Isn’t the more logical take that we didn’t get more from the Blues BECAUSE they valued Blais more highly than the average HF poster seems to?
As far as Blais goes, I'm not sure I've seen a player being given more benefit of the doubt, for what seems to be just post hoc rationalization as to why Drury rushed into a relatively poor or at least slightly below average deal. If someone likes Blais and thinks he's better than a lot of other people think he is that's one thing. But that still doesn't mean the deal deserves excusing or rationalizing IMO. Sure, maybe Blais will be a good bottom 6, likely 4th line player for us. That's all well and good, but he and a 2nd are just not a good return for Buch, which is really the main point that most complaining are making. Which is completely valid.
Blais, maybe not a dime a dozen, but what, 50 cents a dozen at best? He's a relatively replaceable player and the type of player you can generally sign in any offseason, trade for for like a 3rd round pick some times, or draft in rounds 3-7 of the draft if you get a hit on those low % draft picks. He's not even as good as Goodrow or Reaves IMO who are both very good bottom 6 players. And more than anything, I think that's what makes the deal poor. Because Buch, is not a player you can get so easily or usually so cheaply. He's not hall of famer or anything, but his value is legitimately higher. Or at last it should be.
- Apr 16, 2012
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Yes. Buch had more value than Blais. That’s why it wasn’t a straight up one for one trade. That doesn’t mean that Blais doesn’t have the potential to be better than a 50 cent a dozen player. Or that he will be better than .50/dozen either. Some people are optimistic some are pessimistic We’re going to find out though, I suppose.
Kaapo Cabana
Next name: Admiral Kakkbar
I think I'd like to see this top 9
Laf - Zib - Kakko
Laf and Kakko get the chance to really shine with top line minutes, and finally get to play with legit top line talent. The defensive ability of Kakko balances perfect with the offensive prowess of Zib and Laf.
Panarin - Strome - Goodrow
Panarin and Strome are proven to produce, but really need a defensively responsible linemate who is at least passable in the offensive zone. AKA the Fast role. I think Goodrow is a bigger, more offensively talented version of Fast.
Kreider - Chytil - Kravtsov
Chytil gets two talented wingers, with differing skillsets, Kravtsov can play with not Brett Howden, and Kreider gets more favorable offensive matchups. This line is BIG too.
Laf - Zib - Kakko
Laf and Kakko get the chance to really shine with top line minutes, and finally get to play with legit top line talent. The defensive ability of Kakko balances perfect with the offensive prowess of Zib and Laf.
Panarin - Strome - Goodrow
Panarin and Strome are proven to produce, but really need a defensively responsible linemate who is at least passable in the offensive zone. AKA the Fast role. I think Goodrow is a bigger, more offensively talented version of Fast.
Kreider - Chytil - Kravtsov
Chytil gets two talented wingers, with differing skillsets, Kravtsov can play with not Brett Howden, and Kreider gets more favorable offensive matchups. This line is BIG too.
Yea, but even then. There's a huge value difference in the NHL draft between the 1st and 2nd round. Well really, between the 1st round and all other rounds. I think the NHL draft has like an 85% failure rate or something ridiculous like that. 1st Round picks 1-5 have the highest success rate, 6-10 a bit less, 11-15 a bit less and so on. But there is a HUGE drop off generally after the 1st round. Which is why every single NHL GM and every single NHL scout has a "losing record" in terms of drafting and choosing prospects.
So to me, first and foremost, Buch is valuable enough to make a 1st round pick absolutely the correct value. It could be a 1st round pick and a guy like Blais, or frankly, even JUST a 1st round pick. But if we had gotten a 1st, Blais would have just been the cherry. And I know a lot of people think, oh 2nd round pick isn't bad compared to a first. But statistically, it really is bad compared to a first. Beyond bad even, terrible. It's nothing like the NBA or NFL who have much higher success rates and much higher latter round success rates. The NHL is more comparable to MLB which is by far the worst of the 4 major US sports. MLB draft has a much lower success rate than even the NHL draft. But relative to what we are talking about here, a 2nd round pick in the NHL draft is not worth a whole lot. At least, your chances of turning that into a worthwhile player are fairly low. And for me, Buch would require at minimum a 1st round pick.
But yea, I guess we will see. I just don't think Blais has ever really shown anything to suggest he will be more than a 4th line player, maybe on a good day a fringe 3rd liner. And he's all ready 25. Maybe if he was 21 with more potential value, it would be one thing. But I think at this point in his career, we know exactly what Blais is and what he has to offer. Meanwhile we brought in Goodrow, Reaves, Hunt and we have Rooney, Gauthier etc... And then we have Barron, and I personally think Barron has far more upside than Blais. So it's not even like we desperately NEEDED Blais. We could have brought in pretty much any other reasonable bottom 6 or 4th line winger and it would have likely had the same impact at this point as Blais.
n8
WAAAAAAA!!!
my top 9 is
Laf-Zib-Kak (same as yours)
Panarin-Chytil-Krav (rationale - let panarin pull these two into the next level)
Kreider-Strome-Blais (strome showed he could produce away from Panarin during that KHL BS - Kreider played some of his best hockey with Strome. Blais is a strong physical presence with underrated scoring. I think this would be a great line.
Barron-Rooney-Goodrow (might was well finish things off. All three are physical and great the defensive game. Barron-Rooney may not be Coleman-Gourde but I believe the three can bring a similar defensive game. maybe not as much scoring.
Goodrow is an offensive black hole. It'd be great if he wasn't, but at best he's a 3rd liner.
As far as our lines go, Laf - Zib - Kakko seems pretty much the consensus as what to expect for our 1st line. At least, most people seem to agree that will be our top line.
Our second line is more up in the air. While I love the iteration you mentioned, that would totally be dependent on how much progress Chytil has made at faceoffs during the offseasn. I honestly think our best bet would be Panarin - Chytil - Strome. Chytil has the ability and current level of talent to be our 2nd line center. The only thing he lacks is faceoff ability, hence why he would need someone like Strome on his wing. A faceoff taking winger. And while that could theoretically be Goodrow, I think he would detract more from offense than he would add to the line in general. But Chytil and Panarin have played beautifully together when given opportunity in the past. I don't think there are any chemistry issues there. And while that line might not be the best defensively, I think Chytil has improved enough and shown himself capable enough, to be the complete player center that line would need. And really, as far as gameplay, Chytil and Strome would be pretty interchangeable on the ice. Just meaning that at any point, Strome could move into the center position and Chytil to the wing and vice versa. And more likely Chytil would take the defensive center role, while Strome might often play offensively as the center. I can't say 100% that it would work, but I would at least like to see it tried in preseason and I do think there is a good chance it would work.
However, if we did play Panarin - Chytil - Strome as our 2nd line, a 3rd line of Kreider - Goodrow - Kravtsov MIGHT be ok, all though I think still offensively limited. But I would rather at least try that, than having Goodrow on the 2nd line. And I am really hoping Barron comes into the preseason and astonishes everyone, proving himself capable of being our 3C. Or Henriksson or Cuylle even. Or theoretically, maybe Barron could be used on the 3rd line at RW, with Chytil, so both Barron and Kreider could help Chytil with faceoffs. And this is the reason I so badly wanted someone like Dvorak or a real deal middle 6 center. In order to use both Chytil and Strome on the 2nd line. But if one of our other players doesn't prove themselves ready and capable to be our 3C, then I think Gallant will have little choice but to keep Strome at 2C and Chytil at 3C. Unless Chytil, in the offseason, has improved greatly at faceoffs. Kreider can actually take some faceoffs, so he kind of works with Chytil. But I still think we would need another capable faceoff winger on that 3rd line, which could end up being Goodrow, but might better off be Barron if he's ready.
Which would give us a really great 4th line, with little need for Blais lol. Goodrow - Rooney - Reaves would be sick...... and then I really don't know if Gauthier, Hunt or Blais get much time outside of injury or unless one of the starters is really sucking it up.
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Barron looks more like a middle 6 player to me. At least, he played really well offensively last season, all be it in a very depleted AHL. But he scored at a PPG pace. I think he'd be more suited for a 3rd line role if he's ready. Which would be absolutely perfect for what we actually need.
I think if Blais or even Goodrow is on one of the top 3 lines, we aren't really going to do so well. But I think Goodrow at least as 3rd line center, if Chytil was on the 2nd line, makes the most sense.
Barron, while well liked as a prospect, had shown nothing in his limited time at the NHL level last year to warrant being higher than the 4th line at this time. If he makes the team out of camp, thats where he should be starting unless he blows the doors off of preseason, which I do not see happening.
17futurecap
Registered User
With so much cap room, the Rangers will be able to carry a 23 man roster, so either 8 D or 14 forwards. I could see Barron starting in Hartford, and going with Rooney, Hunt and Gauthier as forwards 12-14. I think Tinordi is clearly going to be the 7th dman here.
Hajek should go to Hartford, but would a team like Detroit or Phoenix claim him because why the hell not take a shot, they aren't trying to win anyways.
Hajek should go to Hartford, but would a team like Detroit or Phoenix claim him because why the hell not take a shot, they aren't trying to win anyways.
egelband
Registered User
- Sep 6, 2008
- 16,199
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I think this is about right but I would try Gauthier in the Top Six instead of Goodrow. I still have a feeling he would be good on a scoring line.
I am advocating for a Crash Line of Blais, Goodrow, and Reaves/Hunt as the fourth line.
If Gauthier totally flops, Goodrow can move up and Rooney or Barron can step in.
ROFL. I'm sorry, but what Barron did in his total of 5 NHL games last season is absolutely meaningless. He played in 5 games. And he did score 1 goal. Which is actually better than Kravtsov showed in his 20 NHL games scoring 2 goals and 2 assists. Or at least, Barron and Kravtsov put up an equivalent rate of points, 1 per 5 games played. And I don't see anyone saying things like that about Kravtsov. Or for that matter, Kakko in his rookie year, who wasn't exactly better. Or even Laf.
If Barron isn't ready for anything other than a 4th line role, then simply put, he won't be with the Rangers, he will be in the AHL. The Rangers don't need any more 4th liners for this season and it would be a complete waste to keep Barron on the team if that was his only role. But furthermore, what he did in his total of 5 NHL appearances is absolutely meaningless in terms of what he has the potential to do and what he might do in preseason. Preseason, which will be the real testing ground and showcase for the upcoming season. And he did score at a PPG pace in an all be it depleted AHL last season. Which is something, not a ton of something, but something.
If Barron makes the team though, it will be because he can at least play on the 3rd line or better. It's absolutely hysterical that anyone would use a 5 game sample size at the end of the season to make such a determination. Yet I'm sure you think Kravtsov showed "a lot of promise" or something to where he should be on the 2nd or 3rd line automatically. Just a ridiculous take.
Sorry, nothing personal.
- Nov 2, 2011
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