Short Term Pain - - Long Term Gain

[Racer88]

Doubt anything happens. People are just upset.. understandable.. but you don't want to blow up a good team. Unfortunate Tavares was out since game 2, way she goes.

How do you see a good team. Year in yearbout the fail to live up to expectations. Our 2 highest paid player were garbage

 

[Racer88]

You're coming around. You have come down from an absolute to a doubt.

Lol, well played

 

[lebdafor norris]

You just blame everything on toughness even when toughness is not even remotely the issue on any of those plays you are talking about.

Leadership is extremely volatile. People react to different leaders and styles differently. There have been countless testimonials about how strong Spezza, Thornton, etc. were as leaders and how they held others accountable at all times, and how that drove team success. And ultimately, there are a ton of metrics used to determine leadership strengths, compatibility, etc. these days... So you can quantify leadership.

We need to diagnose the real problems, and a lot of problems in this series stemmed from being able to process basic plays, even when they were not under a lot of pressure. Leadership and toughness is not going to knock the stupid out of people.

Its absolutely frustrating how this team with the Rocket Richard winner and the #4 scorer in the NHL, were being forced to dump and chase the puck during the PP. Much like the CBJ series, the team's offence was absolutely stifled once Montreal started trapping, they still have the same issues they had during Babcock's tenure here.

 

[17 Clark]

Those contracts were not great, but wait to see what guys will be making going forward (Mack, Makar, etc.) I think they signed them thinking the cap would keep going up, but nobody saw Covid coming to destroy everything cap related.

But in saying that Mitch is a 6-8 million dollar player tops if this is the player we get in the playoffs.

So what you’re saying is this still $6 to $8 million Dollars he has no heart disappears in the playoffs The only thing he should be is on the back of a milk carton

 

[tokyoite]

I think shanny will resign voluntarily.
his successor will fire dubas and keefe.
some scouting staff may lose their job as well.

 

[IrishInOntario]

Dubas’s biggest mistake is signing Tavares. He is grossly over payed, was not what the team needed and will absolutely cripple the team going forward

No, it was Marner. He's 165lbs of completely useless when the playoffs start and men start to play the game, like men.

 

[IrishInOntario]

Its absolutely frustrating how this team with the Rocket Richard winner and the #4 scorer in the NHL, were being forced to dump and chase the puck during the PP. Much like the CBJ series, the team's offence was absolutely stifled once Montreal started trapping, they still have the same issues they had during Babcock's tenure here.

Is it really frustrating though? To me it's just who the Leafs are. Every season ends like this season, so I just see this as par for the course.

 

[Nooodles]

That short term pain is currently more than half of my life.

 

[Cap'n Flavour]

Short term pain - every Leafs playoff run.

Long term gain - that goes to MLSE and Bell/Rogers.

 

[daveleaf]

FIRE DUBAS!!!

 

[NMacrules]

He's got a 66% win percentage, I would be shocked to see him fired personally before the start of next season. Whether its the right move or not

Edit: I didnt say I agreed with this, merely that I think they will keep him because of this stat.[/QUOTE
People got fired after winning coach of the year, aka Ted Nolan. Win percentage means squat if you cant get it done in the playoffs. Whats his win record in the playoffs?

 

[notdoneyet]

When you have a superstar who gets manhandled and smiles at the other team
Instead of fighting back you wont win jack shit
Do that to other super stars and they fight back
Mackinnon pasternak stamkos all take a beating but fight back
Marner not built for playoffs

dubas is to blame for this mess

4 players with half the cap hit
Bandages everywhere else

Biggest mistake signing Tavares
Tried to accelerate the rebuild instead of staying the course
He git us in cap hell with those contracts

 

[BrannigansLaw]

I do think we see significant change this off-season, starting with Shanny and Dubas both getting booted.

But ... I’m not optimistic about the future regardless. I’m 35, I’ve been a Leafs fan since I was a young kid, and it’s mostly just been decades of non-stop disappointment. We haven’t won a playoff series in 17 years. We finally put together a super talented young core (Matthews, Marner, Nylander, Rielly, Kadri, etc.), and we’ve turned it into absolutely f***ing nothing. 5 straight first round exits, a garbage team culture with consistently zero compete in the playoffs, and you know for a fact Matthews, Marner and Nylander will all bolt as UFAs if we don’t trade them first.

I don’t see things getting better in the near future. I think the current team just implodes, and it’s probably another decade (or multiple decades) until we build a real contender. This organization is cursed.

Short term pain, long term gain? The last 17 years have already been long term pain, and I don’t expect the next 17 years to be much different. Long term pain, long term pain.

I'm right there with you. I'm 34 and all I've seen from this franchise since the days of Sundin and co. is absolute agonizing pain. I'm not optimistic either but the sooner we blow this shit heap sky high the sooner I can start to hope again. I honestly don't mind being a bottom feeder again for a few years. I just can't see the culture of this team changing with these man children being given 100 million dollar deals for accomplishing jack shit. Right now, I don't care if they win the President's Trophy next year and are up 3-0 in their next first round series because in the back of our minds we all know they'll f*** it u and lose 4-3 somehow.

I just want some hope again. It was better to expect to be crap and stockpile talented prospects with the hope of overachieving than it has been to expect to win which is so damn sad lol.

 

[AvroArrow]

I think the Shanny and Dubas firing talk is pretty silly. At the end of the regular season everyone was confident this team could make the third round at least. That’s Dubas and Shanny’s job done. The coaching staff and the players deserve the majority of the blame. The blame that Dubas and Shanny do deserve is on the contracts to Matthews and Marner. Giving out that much money to unproven guys was a terrible idea.

We were confident because we bought what they were selling us. After seeing the on-ice product, it's not even close to what was advertised.

 

[hockeyes]

I think there is a few things that I need to clear up about analytics, because I do believe some "internet analysts" have created a false sense of what analytics actually are... Usually because they don't know jack about analytics.

1) Analytics are a lot more sophisticated than just tracking possession or anything else you find on the internet... You can track pretty much anything except for maybe Hockey IQ with analytics these days (but even that you can infer based on a set of trackable metrics), so that chaos is not an issue.

2) You will never see any true analytics person who only trusts analytics to make a decision. They use it to provide an unbiased indicator of performance and to see things that scouts can't easily see. Contrary to popular belief, Dubas doesn't just use fancy charts and spreadsheets to make hockey decisions.

3) Analytics are not a guarantee for success, which analytics people also know. You can build a team that has a 99% probability of winning a Cup based on your model. You run a simulation and you win 99/100 times. You lost 1/100 times. Then you run it for real, and you lose. That one time out of 100 happened. That is life and that is sports. For example:



1.4% is not 0%. It is extremely unlucky, but still possible. It mostly makes you wonder what you can do differently as a GM and coach to make things work out. (FTR, I don't really follow Dom's stuff but I know he gets a ton of flak from non-analytics people when his models don't work out; I have no idea how accurate or good they actually are, but for the sake of this exercise we will assume he knows how to make an accurate model).

Finally, Marner did not receive that contract because he was a good analytics player... He received it because he was an elite young player. He still is. If your eye-test did not tell you that, then it is broken. All I can tell you is that everyone uses analytics A LOT these days because it makes your eye-test a lot more clear.

Ultimately my opinion is garbage in = garbage out. It doesn't matter how advanced or how many stats are tracked in private if half of them are taken out of context or misused in the models.

I have a lot of overlap with people using analytics to drive business decisions and I regularly see it bastardized, the need to produce something actionable is very strong. Obviously none of us know what goes on behind closed doors but when the results consistently fail to align with reality it's more than fair to question the methods.

 

[Smif]

I don't feel like management let us down.

When you have two players that put up over 60 goals combined in 56 regular season games and only put up 1 in 7 games in the playoffs it's quite clear where the problem lies.

 

[kb]

The only hope is a house cleaning.

All of management should be fired.

The team has regressed.

Your idea of regression is laughable.....

They need changes in personnel. How does cleaning house on management guarantee post season success? They weren't the quitters, it is ALLLL on the players.

 

[tmlms13]

I think the Shanny and Dubas firing talk is pretty silly. At the end of the regular season everyone was confident this team could make the third round at least. That’s Dubas and Shanny’s job done. The coaching staff and the players deserve the majority of the blame. The blame that Dubas and Shanny do deserve is on the contracts to Matthews and Marner. Giving out that much money to unproven guys was a terrible idea.

Leafs signed the 3 11m players assuming the cap would rise. Probably expected this year to be around 85, and a big jump next year with the new US TV contract which was less money than expected. Those contracts would be that bad if the cap was around 90m

 

[Donnie740]

Your idea of regression is laughable.....

They need changes in personnel. How does cleaning house on management guarantee post season success? They weren't the quitters, it is ALLLL on the players.

Dubas has proven that he doesn’t know how to build a championship team. He can’t even build a team that gets out of the first round.

Keefe has proven that he’s a laughably bad coach.

 

[justashadowof]

Not getting booed into oblivion by a rowdy playoff crowd is the only thing that may save Shanahan's and Dubas' skins. They'll do the same damn thing next spring if Dubas is allowed to make adjustments this summer. It'll be more over the hill stars on league min deals, out of gas rugged guys and the Boyds/Veseys of the hockey world. Expect to see recent draft picks/prospects (Robertson, Amirov, Hallander, maybe Abramov) rushed into the lineup in a last ditch effort to promote the regime's drafting acumen even if the team is languishing as too soft to win in the playoffs. Remember: there are only 3 more seasons left in Matthews' contract until unrestricted free agency.

 

[McSnypsky]

This team could switch rosters with the habs tonight and Toronto would still lose.

It's been 17 years and like 250 different players etc. I honestly don't know what it is...

 

[Donnie740]

Ultimately my opinion is garbage in = garbage out. It doesn't matter how advanced or how many stats are tracked in private if half of them are taken out of context or misused in the models.

I have a lot of overlap with people using analytics to drive business decisions and I regularly see it bastardized, the need to produce something actionable is very strong. Obviously none of us know what goes on behind closed doors but when the results consistently fail to align with reality it's more than fair to question the methods.

That's exactly it.

People will spin numbers to support whatever agenda they're pushing. A greater variety of stats means a greater opportunity for spin.

Let's forget about the fact that Matthews & Marner combined for ONE (1) goal in a 7 game series and focus instead on how many "expected goals" they "scored".

 

[ITM]

How is Keefe the problem when his record reflects unparalleled excellence as a Leafs coach most wins in first 100 games? The team was 3-1 in the series. We lost a game in which a clear interference non-call preceded a 5 on 3 followed by an overtime goal that was deflected in.

Edited to say: It's like those who say Campbell is the problem then exclude his streak as something incidental. If a streak is unprecedented in excellence, it can't also be a negative. Say what one might about Marner the playoffs performer, he noted Campbell as the team's MVP for the second half of the season and said, but for Campbell, no playoffs.

The common denominator between Babcock and Keefe isnt Keefe. Three guesses as to what is...

Keefe isn't the problem games one through four. I don't fault him for one of the losses. The bare minimum should be looking at our support staff. Why is Manny Malholtra not being singled out? The way benches work, specialists whose special teams don't perform should be given a pass? I don't think so.

It may be that Marner should be moved for a piece like a number one defenceman. I get that. Hoped for the best for Marner but perhaps, that's our only option to address an obviously glaring need.

But this isn't baby out with the bathwater time yet.

 

[Donnie740]

How is Keefe the problem when his record reflects unparalleled excellence as a Leafs coach most wins in first 100 games? The team was 3-1 in the series. We lost a game in which a clear interference non-call preceded a 5 on 3 followed by an overtime goal that was deflected in.

Edited to say: It's like those who say Campbell is the problem then exclude his streak as something incidental. If a streak is unprecedented in excellence, it can't also be a negative. Say what one might about Marner the playoffs performer, he noted Campbell as the team's MVP for the second half of the season and said, but for Campbell, no playoffs.

The common denominator between Babcock and Keefe isnt Keefe. Three guesses as to what is...

Keefe isn't the problem games one through four. I don't fault him for one of the losses. The bare minimum should be looking at our support staff. Why is Manny Malholtra not being singled out? The way benches work, specialists whose special teams don't perform should be given a pass? I don't think so.

It may be that Marner should be moved for a piece like a number one defenceman. I get that. Hoped for the best for Marner but perhaps, that's our only option to address an obviously glaring need.

But this isn't baby out with the bathwater time yet.

Nobody cares about the regular season.

Playoffs are what matter and when the playoff intensity arrives, Keefe and his team have proven that they can't compete.

Putting in a slow and soft rookie defencemen was a horrible decision that led directly to a pair of losses. The power play was historically bad. The overuse of struggling players like Marner and Thornton was inexplicable - - especially when considering the underuse of a guy like Spezza who was actually playing very well.

If the assistant coach can't do his job then it's the head coach's responsibility to step in and take over the role. That's basic Coaching 101 and happens all the time in every sport.

 

[ITM]

Nobody cares about the regular season.

Playoffs are what matter and when the playoff intensity arrives, Keefe and his team have proven that they can't compete.

Putting in a slow and soft rookie defencemen was a horrible decision that led directly to a pair of losses. The power play was historically bad. The overuse of struggling players like Marner and Thornton was inexplicable - - especially when considering the underuse of a guy like Spezza who was actually playing very well.

If the assistant coach can't do his job then it's the head coach's responsibility to step in and take over the role. That's basic Coaching 101 and happens all the time in every sport.

You believe that behind an NHL bench, a head coach is going to openly and repeatedly embarrass his support staff? Refraining from doing so and allowing your special teams coaches to do their job is actually Coaching 101. It's Management 101 to remove said weak link in the off season. And so hopefully, we're done and dusted with the Malholtra experiment.

We're in agreement on Spezza and Marner and Thornton though. I suspect the problem with Marner is what so many have noted, which is, how to do you not lean on (and into) Mitch Marner to produce? Sitting him draws ire. Playing him draws ire. Rock and a hard place.

And I think we should care about the regular season a tad. Especially as it lends to getting the most out of the group we had. Which up until Game 5, looked consistent with the product Keefe helped provide in the regular season.

Two problems may be fixed with one move. And not to pile on Marner -- our regular season leading scorer -- but perhaps, if the piece is a stud number one defenceman coming back, the right affect may ripple through the team so that we can play without constantly compensating for positional weakness.