Confirmed with Link: Sharks acquire Cody Ceci and 2025 3rd for Ty Emberson

[Pinkfloyd]

Sharks are 400-1 to the the cup.... Im think of putting down a Benjamin and rolling the dice:

1. The kids!!!: calder quality seasons for Smith and Celly as they compete with each other and drive each other forward. In additon, Musty has a crazy good camp using his size and skill to earn his 9 game tryout. He then puts up 4 goals and 10 pts in those 9 games, and forces the sharks to keep him for the year. Mukh also has a solid camp and uses his experience against men in the KHL and last year's AHL all star to solidify the blueline and make a calder run himself. (I remember when pickles came to camp as a 19 year old in 2006, and just played so unexpected well that he made the team and ended up playing over 22 mins, putting up 26 pts, +13 placing him 3rd on the team D in scoring, 3rd on the D in minutes, and first in +/-. Suddenly, out of nowhere, the sharks had a top 3 defenseman).

2. Dyllandrea takes a big step forward. He had 28 pts in dallas as a 22 year old with ZERO pp time, so with significant ice time in SJ as a 3rd liner and a little 2nd unit pp time, he goes for 40+ pts.

3. Walman captains the PP and puts in 20g, 40+ pts (he had 11 goals at EV last year, so what can he do with #1 pp time?). Ceci and wennberg help the PK improve to be a top 10 unit (this is warsofsky's specialty, so it's very possible).

4. Blackwood was excellent in the first half last year despite getting totally shelled, and in a contract year, he plays his ass off and steals some games.

5. Depth: unlike last year when injuries forced us to play very weak guys, we are 15+ NHLers deep with Bordy, Gushkin, and Cardwell, along with Bystedt making a case for NHL games. We can absorb injuries far easier and are far deeper for that inevitable injury bug.

6. Wild card: Couture? does he come back? Unexpected leap forward from Thompson? Haltunnen leaps forward and takes his rightful place in Ovie's office? many years, something unexpected happens and a player not on the radar suddenly comes into focus. Cagnoni? Robins?

Just like that, we have a top 10 PP (with a D that can shoot), top 10 PK, four of the best rookies in the entire league (smith and celly are both in the top 5 for calder odds), three legit scoring lines, and solid goaltending

STL was dead last in the league on january 1, 2019. They had fired their coach. A rookie goalie comes in, puts up a 1.89 GAA, .927 save%, and suddenly, 6 months later, they were cup champs.

Crazier things have happened!

Name one.

 

[TheBeard]

Sharks are 400-1 to the the cup.... Im think of putting down a Benjamin and rolling the dice:

1. The kids!!!: calder quality seasons for Smith and Celly as they compete with each other and drive each other forward. In additon, Musty has a crazy good camp using his size and skill to earn his 9 game tryout. He then puts up 4 goals and 10 pts in those 9 games, and forces the sharks to keep him for the year. Mukh also has a solid camp and uses his experience against men in the KHL and last year's AHL all star to solidify the blueline and make a calder run himself. (I remember when pickles came to camp as a 19 year old in 2006, and just played so unexpected well that he made the team and ended up playing over 22 mins, putting up 26 pts, +13 placing him 3rd on the team D in scoring, 3rd on the D in minutes, and first in +/-. Suddenly, out of nowhere, the sharks had a top 3 defenseman).

2. Dyllandrea takes a big step forward. He had 28 pts in dallas as a 22 year old with ZERO pp time, so with significant ice time in SJ as a 3rd liner and a little 2nd unit pp time, he goes for 40+ pts.

3. Walman captains the PP and puts in 20g, 40+ pts (he had 11 goals at EV last year, so what can he do with #1 pp time?). Ceci and wennberg help the PK improve to be a top 10 unit (this is warsofsky's specialty, so it's very possible).

4. Blackwood was excellent in the first half last year despite getting totally shelled, and in a contract year, he plays his ass off and steals some games.

5. Depth: unlike last year when injuries forced us to play very weak guys, we are 15+ NHLers deep with Bordy, Gushkin, and Cardwell, along with Bystedt making a case for NHL games. We can absorb injuries far easier and are far deeper for that inevitable injury bug.

6. Wild card: Couture? does he come back? Unexpected leap forward from Thompson? Haltunnen leaps forward and takes his rightful place in Ovie's office? many years, something unexpected happens and a player not on the radar suddenly comes into focus. Cagnoni? Robins?

Just like that, we have a top 10 PP (with a D that can shoot), top 10 PK, four of the best rookies in the entire league (smith and celly are both in the top 5 for calder odds), three legit scoring lines, and solid goaltending

STL was dead last in the league on january 1, 2019. They had fired their coach. A rookie goalie comes in, puts up a 1.89 GAA, .927 save%, and suddenly, 6 months later, they were cup champs.

Crazier things have happened!

I'll do you a solid. I'll take your bet for you. I'll even give you 450-1

 

[sampler]

SJ is +40000 to win the cup. Want me to drop 100.00 on em for you?

haha, you beat me to it... Hell yeah, Im gunna make that bet.... I have my own account. To be honest, I'm conidering $1000. 400k is a good number

I missed out on Leicester city, so i cant miss out on the sharks .

In all honesty, I really feel like this is such a different team than last year. top 2 D are different. 3 of the top 6 forwards are different. Depending on how Mukh does, it may be another big difference. I mean, it's not like they turned over just one or two guys. Half the roster is different along with the head coach. The whole ethos and feeling around the team is different.

Dont get me wrong, I still fully expect them to suck, but I think the probability of a big upside surprise is actually very real, particualry if they can come out of the gate well and get some early confidence. They arent reyling on Luke Kunin or Nico Sturm to be top 9 guys. they arent looking for Hoffman or Lebanc to be legit scorers. Instead, they have a lot of unknowns in Smith, Celly, Mukh, Thrun, and other rooks who may come up. It's not clear how ceci and Walman will do playing 22+ mins. Obviously, its likely all the chips do not fall well, but it's not impossible that they do. They have a ton of question marks, and like half the roster is different.

Smith, Celly, Mukh, Grundlund, Dyllandrea, Goodrow, Toffoli, Wennberg, Walman, Ceci, Couture (?), benning (if healthy)... that's functionally 12 roster spots out of 18 that are basically new!!!

Plus more experienced Eklund, Zetterlund, and Thrun along with Kostin who only played 19 games last year.

Aside from the Lund Line, its basically a whole new forward lineup and a whole new top pair D (maybe a whole new top 4 minutes D if Mukh and benning play there).

 

[JoeThorntonsRooster]

Maybe last year by the analytics, but Ceci has played far more games at a higher level of intensity (playoffs). Don't get me wrong, they're both best as 2nd pairing, and I'm not going to die on this hill, but I do see the argument for Ceci.

Is their experience beyond 2 years ago (or in the playoffs of the last 2 years) really relevant to who is the better player now? Maybe to who is a better mentor, sure, but they've both been full-time NHLers in, at minimum, top-4 roles the past two year. Ceci has 2 years of bad results, Walman has one year of great results and one year of Ceci-level results.

 

[coooldude]

Is their experience beyond 2 years ago (or in the playoffs of the last 2 years) really relevant to who is the better player now? Maybe to who is a better mentor, sure, but they've both been full-time NHLers in, at minimum, top-4 roles the past two year. Ceci has 2 years of bad results, Walman has one year of great results and one year of Ceci-level results.

I mean, mere months ago Ceci was playing 17-19 minutes while going to game 7 of the SCF against the eventual cup winners. I also don't think it matters.

 

[TheBeard]

haha, you beat me to it... Hell yeah, Im gunna make that bet.... I have my own account. To be honest, I'm conidering $1000. 400k is a good number

I missed out on Leicester city, so i cant miss out on the sharks .

In all honesty, I really feel like this is such a different team than last year. top 2 D are different. 3 of the top 6 forwards are different. Depending on how Mukh does, it may be another big difference. I mean, it's not like they turned over just one or two guys. Half the roster is different along with the head coach. The whole ethos and feeling around the team is different.

Dont get me wrong, I still fully expect them to suck, but I think the probability of a big upside surprise is actually very real, particualry if they can come out of the gate well and get some early confidence. They arent reyling on Luke Kunin or Nico Sturm to be top 9 guys. they arent looking for Hoffman or Lebanc to be legit scorers. Instead, they have a lot of unknowns in Smith, Celly, Mukh, Thrun, and other rooks who may come up. It's not clear how ceci and Walman will do playing 22+ mins. Obviously, its likely all the chips do not fall well, but it's not impossible that they do. They have a ton of question marks, and like half the roster is different.

Smith, Celly, Mukh, Grundlund, Dyllandrea, Goodrow, Toffoli, Wennberg, Walman, Ceci, Couture (?), benning (if healthy)... that's functionally 12 roster spots out of 18 that are basically new!!!

Plus more experienced Eklund, Zetterlund, and Thrun along with Kostin who only played 19 games last year.

Aside from the Lund Line, its basically a whole new forward lineup and a whole new top pair D (maybe a whole new top 4 minutes D if Mukh and benning play there).

If anything, they'll be more entertaining.

 

[Hodge]

Is their experience beyond 2 years ago (or in the playoffs of the last 2 years) really relevant to who is the better player now? Maybe to who is a better mentor, sure, but they've both been full-time NHLers in, at minimum, top-4 roles the past two year. Ceci has 2 years of bad results, Walman has one year of great results and one year of Ceci-level results.

Ceci has also been playing with Nurse while Walman has been paired with Seider.

 

[tiburon12]

If Emberson turns out to be a small sample size success but a flop over the long-term, so be it. I'd at least rather ride out that experiment with hopes that maybe he is Demelo/Middleton than get a mid round pick and/or have Ceci for his age 32-34 seasons. Just seems like a bad computation of risk/reward because the reward is negligible.

Weren't you just talking about asset management in this thread? Like, are you really saying that you'd rather a player with the potential to become Cody Ceci at best over literal Cody Ceci + an asset?

This immediately comes to mind...

Which means absolutely nothing to me when the new manager was willing to pay a 3rd to get rid of him. It doesn't speak too highly to his effectiveness in the role and it directly contradicts that statement in the only relevant way.

That's not what EDM was doing though and you know that. EDM just proved that they moved Ceci + got assets for the OS guys and plan to go out and upgrade Ceci. Because EDM is making moves to improve their team does not mean that we also didn't make moves to improve our team. Both can be true, we are just lower on the food chain and their scraps are better than our dinner.

Ceci is like a hand-me-down and isn't the solution BUT he is an undeniable upgrade over Emberson in every category besides salary and potential. That's it. I'm not sure why we are even entertaining thoughts other than "wow Grier took a FREE PLAYER and got 2 ASSESTS back for him, one being surefire upgrade that can play every night."

 

[sampler]

Name one.

many teams have had massive improvements of 40+ pts or more year over year. The devils, avs and pens in just the last 15 years all had 47 point improvements year over year.

hell even the sharks themselves have had such a turnaround. In 1992-3, they had 24 pts, going 11-71-2 (and thats an 84 games season, not 82). that was good for a .143 point percentage. third worst in 100+ years of NHL history!!

The next year, 33-35-16 for 82 pts...that's a 56 point increase!!!... and of course, the miracle vs. detroit, and then taking toronto to game 7. What if they win game 7 there, which was of course, completely possible? then they are in the final 4 and who knows.

Such huge turnarounds can and have happened. It's very rare and unlikely which is why the sharks have such long odds, but this roster is so profoundly different from top to bottom and behind the bench that its so much more opaque.

I'd book that 450-1 in an instant if there was a way to truly confirm it. This team may really surprise, and think the Ceci addition is a whole lot bigger than people think. Like I said, it's still very unlikely, but he will play over 1/3 of the game, and likely play just about every night as he has little injury risk and history. That's alot of ice in key spots late in games and one D can really revolutionize a team, just like one superstar center can.

(BTW, unlike bedard in chicago who had noone else, the sharks have other guys who can score too. The lund line was excellent and should get that much better with eklund and zetterlund experienced. Toffoli is a proven 30 goal guy. Smith is also a top calder candidate. Celebrini can have an off night and the sharks can still score some goals and win a game. Chicago had just one other player with over 40 pts, so if bedard didnt star, they had no chance. The sharks should have at least 5 other guys who can produce regularly, maybe more.)

 

[sampler]

Name one.

BTW, in preseason 1993-4, the sharks were 500-1. What do think their odds were going into the final 8 against toronto? My guess is that they were a whole lot better than 500-1!!!

And, I would say the current sharks team has a better chance of winning the cup than that 93-94 team coming off the 2nd worst season ever (80+ gms), yet the odds are largely the same.

i think fair odds on the sharks are closer to 150-1 or 200-1.

there is also so much parity in the league now. Teams go and up down very fast. its also a young players league and the sharks are very young. I think the idea that this team is gunna be like last year (or only marginally better) ignores that 3/4 of the roster is different including at least 5 of your top 8 players (top pair D, top 6 forwards) and all 5 of those must be considered upgrades (or maybe slight downgrade from hertl to Toffoli, but not much), and the other 3 were your three best players last year in the lund line. They arent saddled with any of the underperformers of last year still in main roles.

obviously alot has to go right for the sharks to make a 50+ pt leap, but alot can go right.

How about this? Last time david quinn got fired, the team (NYR) improved from 27-29 to 52-30, and from missing the PO's to making the ECF... hmmmm......

 

[Alaskanice]

many teams have had massive improvements of 40+ pts or more year over year. The devils, avs and pens in just the last 15 years all had 47 point improvements year over year.

hell even the sharks themselves have had such a turnaround. In 1992-3, they had 24 pts, going 11-71-2 (and thats an 84 games season, not 82). that was good for a .143 point percentage. third worst in 100+ years of NHL history!!

The next year, 33-35-16 for 82 pts...that's a 56 point increase!!!... and of course, the miracle vs. detroit, and then taking toronto to game 7. What if they win game 7 there, which was of course, completely possible? then they are in the final 4 and who knows.

Such huge turnarounds can and have happened. It's very rare and unlikely which is why the sharks have such long odds, but this roster is so profoundly different from top to bottom and behind the bench that its so much more opaque.

I'd book that 450-1 in an instant if there was a way to truly confirm it. This team may really surprise, and think the Ceci addition is a whole lot bigger than people think. Like I said, it's still very unlikely, but he will play over 1/3 of the game, and likely play just about every night as he has little injury risk and history. That's alot of ice in key spots late in games and one D can really revolutionize a team, just like one superstar center can.

(BTW, unlike bedard in chicago who had noone else, the sharks have other guys who can score too. The lund line was excellent and should get that much better with eklund and zetterlund experienced. Toffoli is a proven 30 goal guy. Smith is also a top calder candidate. Celebrini can have an off night and the sharks can still score some goals and win a game. Chicago had just one other player with over 40 pts, so if bedard didnt star, they had no chance. The sharks should have at least 5 other guys who can produce regularly, maybe more.)

I’ve made these points over the years, in less words and explanations but I’m usually thought of as a dreamer.
I like what you’ve had to say and you have my support for the optimism.

 

[Pavelski2112]

There's a difference between optimism and delusion

Let's not let ourselves fall too much into the latter

 

[timorous me]

BTW, in preseason 1993-4, the sharks were 500-1. What do think their odds were going into the final 8 against toronto? My guess is that they were a whole lot better than 500-1!!!

And, I would say the current sharks team has a better chance of winning the cup than that 93-94 team coming off the 2nd worst season ever (80+ gms), yet the odds are largely the same.

i think fair odds on the sharks are closer to 150-1 or 200-1.

there is also so much parity in the league now. Teams go and up down very fast. its also a young players league and the sharks are very young. I think the idea that this team is gunna be like last year (or only marginally better) ignores that 3/4 of the roster is different including at least 5 of your top 8 players (top pair D, top 6 forwards) and all 5 of those must be considered upgrades (or maybe slight downgrade from hertl to Toffoli, but not much), and the other 3 were your three best players last year in the lund line. They arent saddled with any of the underperformers of last year still in main roles.

obviously alot has to go right for the sharks to make a 50+ pt leap, but alot can go right.

How about this? Last time david quinn got fired, the team (NYR) improved from 27-29 to 52-30, and from missing the PO's to making the ECF... hmmmm......

Here are the Stanley Cup winning odds from various sportsbooks: NHL Futures: Stanley Cup Odds For 2025

Note that the Sharks come in on these as anywhere from +16,000 to +40,000. These are the kinds of astronomical odds you rarely see--and obviously are proof of where the team lies at the moment. (I do appreciate, though, that my local casino here in upstate NY has the Ducks with worse odds than the Sharks.)

I don't think there's anything comparable in modern sports. The closest I can think of is Leicester City winning the Premier League in 2016 when they entered the season with 5,000-1 odds to win the title. I don't know if it's easier or harder in a league with no playoffs to pull that off, but it was remarkable regardless, yet safe to say it won't be happening again anytime soon in the Premier League or any other major league--and most see the Sharks as having much worse odds than that Leicester team (which was a once-in-a-blue-moon type of team, but also much more talented than it seemed...and others underperformed to allow it to happen, which, as I told others at the time, they would never allow to happen again in the foreseeable future...and just look at how things have gone in the Premier League since then).

I could see the Sharks making a nice little jump in points this year--likely into the 60s--but if we're looking for a big jump, I'd say that's more likely to happen a year or two down the road and would require more significant additions and young guys reaching lofty heights earlier than expected, if we want to be realistic.

 

[sampler]

Here are the Stanley Cup winning odds from various sportsbooks: NHL Futures: Stanley Cup Odds For 2025

Note that the Sharks come in on these as anywhere from +16,000 to +40,000. These are the kinds of astronomical odds you rarely see--and obviously are proof of where the team lies at the moment. (I do appreciate, though, that my local casino here in upstate NY has the Ducks with worse odds than the Sharks.)

I don't think there's anything comparable in modern sports. The closest I can think of is Leicester City winning the Premier League in 2016 when they entered the season with 5,000-1 odds to win the title. I don't know if it's easier or harder in a league with no playoffs to pull that off, but it was remarkable regardless, yet safe to say it won't be happening again anytime soon in the Premier League or any other major league--and most see the Sharks as having much worse odds than that Leicester team (which was a once-in-a-blue-moon type of team, but also much more talented than it seemed...and others underperformed to allow it to happen, which, as I told others at the time, they would never allow to happen again in the foreseeable future...and just look at how things have gone in the Premier League since then).

I could see the Sharks making a nice little jump in points this year--likely into the 60s--but if we're looking for a big jump, I'd say that's more likely to happen a year or two down the road and would require more significant additions and young guys reaching lofty heights earlier than expected, if we want to be realistic.

Of course its unlikely. that's why the odds say it will happen once in every 400 seasons!

Leicester city (which I referenced above too) was 5000-1 because there is much less parity in the premier league than the NHL. The playoff structure also means that a team can finish 20-30+ points behind the leader and still win the championship as long as they finish in the top half of the league.

I think the betting odds are too long. Last year's team was 250-1. I think this years team is way better than last years team, yet the odds are much worse at 400-1. I think that's an error and does not account for 3/4 of the roster being improved. Hence why I think 150 or 200-1 is proper. Still long odds, but not THAT long.

 

[weastern bias]

many teams have had massive improvements of 40+ pts or more year over year. The devils, avs and pens in just the last 15 years all had 47 point improvements year over year.

We had 47 points total last year

A 47 point improvement would be literally double the output and bring us to 94 points

Vegas was the last team in the playoffs in the west with 98 points

Doubling our point output from last year brings us 3 wins away from a playoff berth, it's not happening

I'm open to a surprise improvement next year, but it would have basically nothing to do with the defense, the only way we progress out of the bottom 5 of the league is if one of Smith or Celebrini have a Crosby/Ovechkin/McDavid level rookie season and blow expectations out of the water

All of those players missed the playoffs in their rookie season

We're trying to move forward, and progress should be expected, but don't oversell your expectations, you're building up to an inevitable disappointment

You will lose a bet on the Sharks to make the playoffs, betting on them to win the Cup? You may as well light that money on fire

Next year is about hard learned lessons, exciting growth and development from awesome young players, and finally real hope to build for the future, the present is a write off, don't take losses too personally this year, that's Smith and Celebrini's job, lol

 

[coooldude]

Plus, if we really want to set ourselves up for true contention, we could use another 2 years of picking top 5. Right now we're stoked on our prospect pool, but I guarantee (guarantee!) that not all of them will be in the NHL in 5 years, and if we want to rebuild this team, we need another 3-5 good picks next year on top of the pool we already have.

A playoff blip would be detrimental in the coming season. But this year I will feel good about cheering for wins, knowing they'll still not come very easily.

 

[Jumptheshark]

I think u guys will like CC

 

[Stewie Griffin]

This season we should cheer for wins, but don't expect to win lol. We're going to finish probably bottom 3, but at least see some progress in the young guys like the Ducks have with Carlsson, McTavish, etc. We will have tons of prospects to cheer for, and with 2 1sts in next years draft, lots of draft coverage to follow. After the 2025 draft, and free agency, I think we're going to be a really fun team to follow.

But yeah, we're still going to suck.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

That's not what EDM was doing though and you know that. EDM just proved that they moved Ceci + got assets for the OS guys and plan to go out and upgrade Ceci. Because EDM is making moves to improve their team does not mean that we also didn't make moves to improve our team. Both can be true, we are just lower on the food chain and their scraps are better than our dinner.

Ceci is like a hand-me-down and isn't the solution BUT he is an undeniable upgrade over Emberson in every category besides salary and potential. That's it. I'm not sure why we are even entertaining thoughts other than "wow Grier took a FREE PLAYER and got 2 ASSESTS back for him, one being surefire upgrade that can play every night."

Edmonton factually paid to dump Ceci because they don't believe him to be the right answer for them as a #4 on their competitive team. I don't think it's undeniable that Ceci is an upgrade over Emberson. I tend to lean that he is but what we're probably asking Ceci to do here and what we were asking Emberson to do here are two different things with different standards for success. The other thing is that the odds of being able to have Emberson beyond this season is likely better than the odds of keeping Ceci beyond this season. I would want to keep Emberson if he was able to prove his 30 game stint here wasn't a fluke. I don't see a scenario where keeping Ceci is a good idea for the Sharks.

many teams have had massive improvements of 40+ pts or more year over year. The devils, avs and pens in just the last 15 years all had 47 point improvements year over year.

hell even the sharks themselves have had such a turnaround. In 1992-3, they had 24 pts, going 11-71-2 (and thats an 84 games season, not 82). that was good for a .143 point percentage. third worst in 100+ years of NHL history!!

The next year, 33-35-16 for 82 pts...that's a 56 point increase!!!... and of course, the miracle vs. detroit, and then taking toronto to game 7. What if they win game 7 there, which was of course, completely possible? then they are in the final 4 and who knows.

Such huge turnarounds can and have happened. It's very rare and unlikely which is why the sharks have such long odds, but this roster is so profoundly different from top to bottom and behind the bench that its so much more opaque.

I'd book that 450-1 in an instant if there was a way to truly confirm it. This team may really surprise, and think the Ceci addition is a whole lot bigger than people think. Like I said, it's still very unlikely, but he will play over 1/3 of the game, and likely play just about every night as he has little injury risk and history. That's alot of ice in key spots late in games and one D can really revolutionize a team, just like one superstar center can.

(BTW, unlike bedard in chicago who had noone else, the sharks have other guys who can score too. The lund line was excellent and should get that much better with eklund and zetterlund experienced. Toffoli is a proven 30 goal guy. Smith is also a top calder candidate. Celebrini can have an off night and the sharks can still score some goals and win a game. Chicago had just one other player with over 40 pts, so if bedard didnt star, they had no chance. The sharks should have at least 5 other guys who can produce regularly, maybe more.)

The Devils and Avs had much better rosters compared to what we're looking at. The Pens didn't have such an improvement. It was still impressive but it wasn't a 47 point improvement. Going further back into the days where there was no cap and 21 or so teams isn't going to be relevant to now. Huge turnarounds happen when either a talented team has a ton of adversity that they don't have the following year or a significant influx of talent is added. No such thing will occur with the Sharks this year. We have some influx of talent especially up front but our blue line is awful and we're not going to know what we're going to get in net. Ceci will probably be their best defenseman but he's also just not a top pairing guy like we're probably going to ask him to be here. He's a bottom pairing guy on a competitive team. That's fine but we don't have an issue there. We have issues at the top of the lineup competing against other teams' best players. I do see an improvement occurring for the Sharks next year but not to that degree. We'll be lucky if we return to the 60-70 point range we were at prior to last year's bottoming out.

BTW, in preseason 1993-4, the sharks were 500-1. What do think their odds were going into the final 8 against toronto? My guess is that they were a whole lot better than 500-1!!!

And, I would say the current sharks team has a better chance of winning the cup than that 93-94 team coming off the 2nd worst season ever (80+ gms), yet the odds are largely the same.

i think fair odds on the sharks are closer to 150-1 or 200-1.

there is also so much parity in the league now. Teams go and up down very fast. its also a young players league and the sharks are very young. I think the idea that this team is gunna be like last year (or only marginally better) ignores that 3/4 of the roster is different including at least 5 of your top 8 players (top pair D, top 6 forwards) and all 5 of those must be considered upgrades (or maybe slight downgrade from hertl to Toffoli, but not much), and the other 3 were your three best players last year in the lund line. They arent saddled with any of the underperformers of last year still in main roles.

obviously alot has to go right for the sharks to make a 50+ pt leap, but alot can go right.

How about this? Last time david quinn got fired, the team (NYR) improved from 27-29 to 52-30, and from missing the PO's to making the ECF... hmmmm......

The Rangers that year again had a significantly more talented group of blue liners than what we're looking to go with next season. The potential for improvement was there but they needed to add a significant amount on the blue line to make that more realistic. Grier hasn't done that and the team's results will likely reflect that in the upcoming season. It doesn't mean that they aren't on the right track but it's a huge reason to not expect that large of a turnaround in a very competitive league.

 

[tiburon12]

Edmonton factually paid to dump Ceci because they don't believe him to be the right answer for them as a #4 on their competitive team. I don't think it's undeniable that Ceci is an upgrade over Emberson. I tend to lean that he is but what we're probably asking Ceci to do here and what we were asking Emberson to do here are two different things with different standards for success. The other thing is that the odds of being able to have Emberson beyond this season is likely better than the odds of keeping Ceci beyond this season. I would want to keep Emberson if he was able to prove his 30 game stint here wasn't a fluke. I don't see a scenario where keeping Ceci is a good idea for the Sharks.

Ok i'm on board with those points. But those still don't take away from the fact this was a positive trade. Because the option of keeping Emberson and having him turn into a long-term #4 is better, albeit it with lower odds of success, doesn't mean that this trade wasn't an objectively good move.

A lot of great points about this trade that folks are making lack the relativeness and relevancy to overcome the simple fact that Grier just went from Free Player > Top 4 Upgrade + Draft Capital at no cost.

 

[Shark in Hockeytown]

There's a difference between optimism and delusion

Let's not let ourselves fall too much into the latter

As us recovering Cubs fans say, "Delusion springs eternal."

 

[Pinkfloyd]

Ok i'm on board with those points. But those still don't take away from the fact this was a positive trade. Because the option of keeping Emberson and having him turn into a long-term #4 is better, albeit it with lower odds of success, doesn't mean that this trade wasn't an objectively good move.

A lot of great points about this trade that folks are making lack the relativeness and relevancy to overcome the simple fact that Grier just went from Free Player > Top 4 Upgrade + Draft Capital at no cost.

I can wholeheartedly agree that it's a positive trade. It's just not to such a degree that I find it to be meaningful. A 3rd from Edmonton is probably not going to amount to anything. A 2nd is what I would expect them to get to make it worthwhile because it's a far more usable asset and better draft pick odds. Ceci for this next season is probably not going to do anything that they weren't already looking at doing beforehand. There's nobody on the right side to worry about insulating and protecting. We already had Benning, Emberson, and Rutta with Vlasic as a spare capable of playing that side when needed for what looks like another non-playoff season. I also don't think his rental value is anything more than a 3rd from another competitive team. Considering Emberson was a waiver claim, getting two 3rd round picks is certainly a positive development. But two 3rd round picks are still likely to just be more misses. I honestly would still prefer the small potential odds of Emberson being a solid #4 or at worst a 3rd pairing guy they can keep for a few more years over those 3rds.

 

[Sleeper Shark]

any GM can build a team to lose and stockpile high draft picks. It doesn't take a special talent to do that. But when it comes to trades Mike Grier has lost every single one of them except for the Meier trade, which was a wash at best.

You're delusional. Most recent trades prior - just before the draft brought #11 OA for #14OA and one 2nd (out of three total). Go ahead and tell me that getting Dickinson wasn't massive for the Sharks.

How about getting Walman AND a 2nd? When absolutely no one thought that was even on the radar?

I like the Ceci trade. Don't like giving up Emberson, but it's no great shakes in the end. Flip Cody at the deadline, gain more assets, run it back to the 2025 draft and pull a Bill Armstrong and get your vets there with the extra ammo. Don't pretend like there's not a plan in place. It's been happening right under your nose. Sheeeeeeesh, bra.

 

[Hodge]

The more I think about it we should probably just extend Ceci on a 3 or 4 year contract if he's willing to stay.

None of the RD in our system are likely to surpass him in the next 4-5 years even assuming some age-related decline by Ceci.

If we can extend Ceci for under 4M AAV he'll be a good stopgap until we acquire better RD to push him down the depth chart.

 

[STL Shark]

Weren't you just talking about asset management in this thread? Like, are you really saying that you'd rather a player with the potential to become Cody Ceci at best over literal Cody Ceci + an asset?

This immediately comes to mind...




That's not what EDM was doing though and you know that. EDM just proved that they moved Ceci + got assets for the OS guys and plan to go out and upgrade Ceci. Because EDM is making moves to improve their team does not mean that we also didn't make moves to improve our team. Both can be true, we are just lower on the food chain and their scraps are better than our dinner.

Ceci is like a hand-me-down and isn't the solution BUT he is an undeniable upgrade over Emberson in every category besides salary and potential. That's it. I'm not sure why we are even entertaining thoughts other than "wow Grier took a FREE PLAYER and got 2 ASSESTS back for him, one being surefire upgrade that can play every night."

Getting a draft pick that is going to be somewhere around 85th overall doesn't move the needle enough to give up the chance that Emberson is a long-term solution as a 5/6 on the right side. Nor does taking on a 1 year player that we should not extend under any circumstance based on his career to date and trajectory over the last few years.

I think the idea of just "gaining an asset for a waiver claim" is way too simplistic because it ignores the potential value left on the table. Same concept applied when trading Middleton. We thought that we "sold high" at the time and he's turned out to be a legitimate top 4 defenseman in the NHL and we sold for pennies on the dollar. But hey, we got an asset for a player we got off the scrap heap.

So in this case, I'd have rather rolled the dice to see what Emberson is this year than take the guarantee of a pick in the mid-late 80's and maybe another 3rd/4th rounder in exchange for Ceci at the deadline because I don't put much value into mid round picks when the Sharks are where they are right now. Organization has ample depth of guys drafted in that range after having 27 draft picks in 3 years.