- Jun 23, 2020
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They could also be incompetent.Maybe the reaquire Ceci at the deadline? how ironic that would be...
But yeah, mysterious moves by Edm. They must really like emberson.
They could also be incompetent.Maybe the reaquire Ceci at the deadline? how ironic that would be...
But yeah, mysterious moves by Edm. They must really like emberson.
The offer sheet thread(s) sure have been a rollercoaster of emotions.They could also be incompetent.
Feels like a very Stan Bowman move. Feel like he loved re-acquiring guys when he was in Chicago.Maybe the reaquire Ceci at the deadline? how ironic that would be...
But yeah, mysterious moves by Edm. They must really like emberson.
Stan BowmanThey could also be incompetent.
Oops, beat me to itFeels like a very Stan Bowman move. Feel like he loved re-acquiring guys when he was in Chicago.
I agree, in my opinion evaluating it as a hockey trade sans cap dump it's still a bit perplexing (specifically sending Emberson back from our POV), but it does show that EDM had more leverage than everyone was assuming/screaming. And while I would have liked to keep Emberson, if EDM was never keeping Broberg, they needed a D coming back (I just don't get it unless they're right that Emberson is about to break out).So it turns out we just wanted Ceci? Definitely paints the trade in a different light.
I agree, in my opinion evaluating it as a hockey trade sans cap dump it's still a bit perplexing (specifically sending Emberson back from our POV), but it does show that EDM had more leverage than everyone was assuming/screaming. And while I would have liked to keep Emberson, if EDM was never keeping Broberg, they needed a D coming back (I just don't get it unless they're right that Emberson is about to break out).
So we lose some uncertain upside with Emberson but pretty much gain a better D and replenish our 3rd rounder. Which... might be better than expected since I'm not convinced that D corps in EDM can go far in the PO's.
Not sure how it changed your mind though? Are you more or less happy with it?
I mean, I feel like that was obvious all along. If Grier was just doing Edmonton a favor, he could have held out for more because he wouldn't have cared if they went to someone else.So it turns out we just wanted Ceci? Definitely paints the trade in a different light.
I think you're right on the point re: Grier just wanting Ceci, but not matching the OS does show that EDM had more leverage than the masses were claiming, and so it makes the evaluation of the trade a bit easier. Therefore Grier probably couldn't have held out for any more because the other side of the trade wasn't under the gun like people were assuming.I mean, I feel like that was obvious all along. If Grier was just doing Edmonton a favor, he could have held out for more because he wouldn't have cared if they went to someone else.
What's genuinely hilarious is that Oilers fans are really slurping up those 30 games of Ty Emberson analytics.I think you're right on the point re: Grier just wanting Ceci, but not matching the OS does show that EDM had more leverage than the masses were claiming, and so it makes the evaluation of the trade a bit easier. Therefore Grier probably couldn't have held out for any more because the other side of the trade wasn't under the gun like people were assuming.
EDIT in fact it makes it more likely that maybe Grier wanted more future picks but EDM targeted Emberson.
Don't forget, his AHL coach is in EDM as well! Massive breakout incoming!What's genuinely hilarious is that Oilers fans are really slurping up those 30 games of Ty Emberson analytics.
Right, I like Emberson but right now it seems like he's gonna be expected to play top-4 minutes and I'm not sure that's a great plan...Don't forget, his AHL coach is in EDM as well! Massive breakout incoming!
In all seriousness... I hope Emberson succeeds in a vacuum, guy seems like a good dude, but I also hope he fails to break out this year and we see EDM collapse. The fireworks would be epic, and our pick will be better.
By all accounts Emberson was also one of the best defensemen in the AHL in 22-23 so I think there's reason to be optimistic about him.What's genuinely hilarious is that Oilers fans are really slurping up those 30 games of Ty Emberson analytics.
Totally, and like I said I do like Emberson and believe in him to be useful in a bottom pairing role. But he's also a 24 year old with 30 career NHL games.By all accounts Emberson was also one of the best defensemen in the AHL in 22-23 so I think there's reason to be optimistic about him.
Probably not a top 4 defenseman but a reasonable bet to stick as a 3rd pair option in the NHL. Dearth of RH defensemen leaguewide will help him.
Oilers seem to think they can wait until the deadline to address their defense. It could seriously backfire on them.
What terrible asset management by the Oilers. It just wasI can't believe we helped the Oilers keep Broberg and Holloway by making this trade.
This is why I was high on keeping him. Envisioned him and Thrun as a nice 3rd pairing for years to come (assuming they got paid as such and not like 2/3 pairing guys). 24 year old 3rd pairing RHD is a commodity and feel like we didn't capitalize on that very well.By all accounts Emberson was also one of the best defensemen in the AHL in 22-23 so I think there's reason to be optimistic about him.
Probably not a top 4 defenseman but a reasonable bet to stick as a 3rd pair option in the NHL. Dearth of RH defensemen leaguewide will help him.
Oilers seem to think they can wait until the deadline to address their defense. It could seriously backfire on them.
I don't think we could have capitalized on Emberson's value any better than getting a 3rd+Ceci for him especially since he's a pending Group VI UFA.This is why I was high on keeping him. Envisioned him and Thrun as a nice 3rd pairing for years to come (assuming they got paid as such and not like 2/3 pairing guys). 24 year old 3rd pairing RHD is a commodity and feel like we didn't capitalize on that very well.
I get his NHL experience isn't a lot right now (and thus his value is based on projection), but I'd have rather played him 40-50 more games and hoped he had a Middleton run and dealt him at the TDL than take the "sure thing" now that's only a measly late 3rd round pick and hope for another late 3rd at the deadline. 3rd rounders have been worthless for this organization and I've grown to treat them as such.
Jake Middleton literally returned Tankoo Tankkonen, so I dunno if that's really any better than what we got here...This is why I was high on keeping him. Envisioned him and Thrun as a nice 3rd pairing for years to come (assuming they got paid as such and not like 2/3 pairing guys). 24 year old 3rd pairing RHD is a commodity and feel like we didn't capitalize on that very well.
I get his NHL experience isn't a lot right now (and thus his value is based on projection), but I'd have rather played him 40-50 more games and hoped he had a Middleton run and dealt him at the TDL than take the "sure thing" now that's only a measly late 3rd round pick and hope for another late 3rd at the deadline. 3rd rounders have been worthless for this organization and I've grown to treat them as such.
If he is dealt at the TDL like I proposed, he has likely already surpassed or is very close to surpassing the 50 games played needed to be an RFA. I don't think the return in this deal was enough to pass up on a potential young 3rd pairing RHD this soon. I think you'd have been better off letting the Emberson experiment ride out longer than cash in for a low return that is not going to move the needle of the organization in any real way.I don't think we could have capitalized on Emberson's value any better than getting a 3rd+Ceci for him especially since he's a pending Group VI UFA.
Just because the incompetent Joe Will valued Kahkonen over a 2nd round pick doesn't mean his value wasn't a 2nd rounder... Also, look at Middleton now and how selling low for a merely okay return was a bad idea.Jake Middleton literally returned Tankoo Tankkonen, so I dunno if that's really any better than what we got here...
Or we could just extend Ceci and have a superior established RHD than Emberson.Rental RHD dealt at the last TDL that were 5-7 types of D (which is what Ceci is) and their trade values:
Matt Dumba + 7th = 5th
Colin Miller = 4th
Erik Johnson = 4th
Andrew Peeke = 3rd
Chad Ruhwedel = 4th
Troy Stecher + 7th = 4th
If he is dealt at the TDL like I proposed, he has likely already surpassed or is very close to surpassing the 50 games played needed to be an RFA. I don't think the return in this deal was enough to pass up on a potential young 3rd pairing RHD this soon. I think you'd have been better off letting the Emberson experiment ride out longer than cash in for a low return that is not going to move the needle of the organization in any real way.
Just because the incompetent Joe Will valued Kahkonen over a 2nd round pick doesn't mean his value wasn't a 2nd rounder...
Except Ceci is still playing in your top 4 which isn't a good thing (otherwise Edmonton would have kept him and/or not healthy scratched him during the SCF and his underlying stats would not be as bad as they are).Or we could just extend Ceci and have a superior established RHD than Emberson.
- Trade VGK 1st+Ferraro+Musty to NYI for Dobson at next year's draft
- Extend Ceci 3.75Mx3
- Sign UFA Marcus Pettersson 5Mx5
Pettersson-Dobson
Mukhamadullin-Ceci
Dickinson/Thrun-Benning
Defense solved for the medium term.
If Ceci is in your top four then your defense is pretty clearly not solved.Or we could just extend Ceci and have a superior established RHD than Emberson.
- Trade VGK 1st+Ferraro+Musty to NYI for Dobson at next year's draft
- Extend Ceci 3.75Mx3
- Sign UFA Marcus Pettersson 5Mx5
Pettersson-Dobson
Mukhamadullin-Ceci
Dickinson/Thrun-Benning
Defense solved for the medium term.
Multiple NHL coaching staffs seem to disagree since he's been playing top four minutes on playoff teams for about 5 years running.If Ceci is in your top four then your defense is pretty clearly not solved.
Which means absolutely nothing to me when the new manager was willing to pay a 3rd to get rid of him. It doesn't speak too highly to his effectiveness in the role and it directly contradicts that statement in the only relevant way.Multiple NHL coaching staffs seem to disagree since he's been playing top four minutes on playoff teams for about 5 years running.