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They could also be incompetent.
Confirmed with Link: Sharks acquire Cody Ceci and 2025 3rd for Ty Emberson
- Thread starter Lebanezer
- Start date
- Jul 25, 2007
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The offer sheet thread(s) sure have been a rollercoaster of emotions.
"STL is making Bowman look like a fool!"
"Holloway's gone, Bowman making moves!"
"Grier, you muppet! Why did you give Bowman an out to keep Broberg! Broberg is overpaid but necessary for the EDM future! I hate/love Grier, he's the worst GM of all time!"
"We never wanted Broberg or Holloway anyway! We'll pick up a better defenseman at the deadline, maybe even Cody Ceci! Great job Bowman!"
STL Shark
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Feels like a very Stan Bowman move. Feel like he loved re-acquiring guys when he was in Chicago.
weastern bias
worst team in the league
I'm not a fan of this trade but I understand it. I don't think we need Ceci nor the assets we're likely to get from doing so. But my complaints around this deal is minor at the end of the day because I feel like getting a 2nd would've been meaningful and a 3rd is not. Anyone thinking this is some disaster or whatever probably have other issues with Grier that have nothing to do with hockey.
- Jul 25, 2007
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I agree, in my opinion evaluating it as a hockey trade sans cap dump it's still a bit perplexing (specifically sending Emberson back from our POV), but it does show that EDM had more leverage than everyone was assuming/screaming. And while I would have liked to keep Emberson, if EDM was never keeping Broberg, they needed a D coming back (I just don't get it unless they're right that Emberson is about to break out).
So we lose some uncertain upside with Emberson but pretty much gain a better D and replenish our 3rd rounder. Which... might be better than expected since I'm not convinced that D corps in EDM can go far in the PO's.
Not sure how it changed your mind though? Are you more or less happy with it?
I was always ok with it - throw Ceci to the wolves to help insulate the young guys and pickup something at the deadline for him.
There is like 1% chance Emberson turns into a top4 defenseman that will make this look bad. But otherwise I think we should be ok with it.
Juxtaposer
Outro: Divina Comedia
I mean, I feel like that was obvious all along. If Grier was just doing Edmonton a favor, he could have held out for more because he wouldn't have cared if they went to someone else.
- Jul 25, 2007
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I think you're right on the point re: Grier just wanting Ceci, but not matching the OS does show that EDM had more leverage than the masses were claiming, and so it makes the evaluation of the trade a bit easier. Therefore Grier probably couldn't have held out for any more because the other side of the trade wasn't under the gun like people were assuming.
EDIT in fact it makes it more likely that maybe Grier wanted more future picks but EDM targeted Emberson.
Juxtaposer
Outro: Divina Comedia
What's genuinely hilarious is that Oilers fans are really slurping up those 30 games of Ty Emberson analytics.
- Jul 25, 2007
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Don't forget, his AHL coach is in EDM as well! Massive breakout incoming!
In all seriousness... I hope Emberson succeeds in a vacuum, guy seems like a good dude, but I also hope he fails to break out this year and we see EDM collapse. The fireworks would be epic, and our pick will be better.
Juxtaposer
Outro: Divina Comedia
Right, I like Emberson but right now it seems like he's gonna be expected to play top-4 minutes and I'm not sure that's a great plan...
Hodge
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- Apr 27, 2021
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By all accounts Emberson was also one of the best defensemen in the AHL in 22-23 so I think there's reason to be optimistic about him.
Probably not a top 4 defenseman but a reasonable bet to stick as a 3rd pair option in the NHL. Dearth of RH defensemen leaguewide will help him.
Oilers seem to think they can wait until the deadline to address their defense. It could seriously backfire on them.
Juxtaposer
Outro: Divina Comedia
Totally, and like I said I do like Emberson and believe in him to be useful in a bottom pairing role. But he's also a 24 year old with 30 career NHL games.
jarr92
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STL Shark
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This is why I was high on keeping him. Envisioned him and Thrun as a nice 3rd pairing for years to come (assuming they got paid as such and not like 2/3 pairing guys). 24 year old 3rd pairing RHD is a commodity and feel like we didn't capitalize on that very well.
I get his NHL experience isn't a lot right now (and thus his value is based on projection), but I'd have rather played him 40-50 more games and hoped he had a Middleton run and dealt him at the TDL than take the "sure thing" now that's only a measly late 3rd round pick and hope for another late 3rd at the deadline. 3rd rounders have been worthless for this organization and I've grown to treat them as such.
Hodge
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I don't think we could have capitalized on Emberson's value any better than getting a 3rd+Ceci for him especially since he's a pending Group VI UFA.
Juxtaposer
Outro: Divina Comedia
Jake Middleton literally returned Tankoo Tankkonen, so I dunno if that's really any better than what we got here...
STL Shark
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Rental RHD dealt at the last TDL that were 5-7 types of D (which is what Ceci is) and their trade values:
Matt Dumba + 7th = 5th
Colin Miller = 4th
Erik Johnson = 4th
Andrew Peeke = 3rd
Chad Ruhwedel = 4th
Troy Stecher + 7th = 4th
Matt Dumba + 7th = 5th
Colin Miller = 4th
Erik Johnson = 4th
Andrew Peeke = 3rd
Chad Ruhwedel = 4th
Troy Stecher + 7th = 4th
If he is dealt at the TDL like I proposed, he has likely already surpassed or is very close to surpassing the 50 games played needed to be an RFA. I don't think the return in this deal was enough to pass up on a potential young 3rd pairing RHD this soon. I think you'd have been better off letting the Emberson experiment ride out longer than cash in for a low return that is not going to move the needle of the organization in any real way.
Just because the incompetent Joe Will valued Kahkonen over a 2nd round pick doesn't mean his value wasn't a 2nd rounder... Also, look at Middleton now and how selling low for a merely okay return was a bad idea.
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Hodge
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Or we could just extend Ceci and have a superior established RHD than Emberson.
- Trade VGK 1st+Ferraro+Musty to NYI for Dobson at next year's draft
- Extend Ceci 3.75Mx3
- Sign UFA Marcus Pettersson 5Mx5
Pettersson-Dobson
Mukhamadullin-Ceci
Dickinson/Thrun-Benning
Defense solved for the medium term.
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STL Shark
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Except Ceci is still playing in your top 4 which isn't a good thing (otherwise Edmonton would have kept him and/or not healthy scratched him during the SCF and his underlying stats would not be as bad as they are).
Ceci vs Emberson is not likely to be franchise altering, but I also just don't see it as a good or worthwhile move at this time. It feels like the Polak over Demelo situation of 2016 where you're giving up the potential upside of a late blooming young player with small sample size success for an older veteran who has proven to not be good but is a veteran. At least in that case, you weren't trading the younger player and simply just playing the known bad player.
If Emberson turns out to be a small sample size success but a flop over the long-term, so be it. I'd at least rather ride out that experiment with hopes that maybe he is Demelo/Middleton than get a mid round pick and/or have Ceci for his age 32-34 seasons. Just seems like a bad computation of risk/reward because the reward is negligible.
Hodge
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Multiple NHL coaching staffs seem to disagree since he's been playing top four minutes on playoff teams for about 5 years running.
Which means absolutely nothing to me when the new manager was willing to pay a 3rd to get rid of him. It doesn't speak too highly to his effectiveness in the role and it directly contradicts that statement in the only relevant way.
