Player Discussion Shane Pinto (C) - PART 2

[Erik Alfredsson]

I am beginning to worry why he hasn't been signed already though. They had a long time to discuss all this in 2023.

Staios has been pretty busy since he took over midseason, he had to do his entire assessment of the whole organization. Discussing a contract with Pinto probably wasn't a top priority for him.

 

[Ouroboros]

It's easy to see why the new GM would want to proceed with caution here. Pinto will be 24 years old early next season, but he has played very few NHL games [only 140!] and his high-water mark is 35 points. I don't think anybody really knows what he's going to be as an NHL player.

This season was really weird for him. He exploded out of the gate with 18 points in his first 20 games; shame can be a great motivator. But then he only had 9 points in the next 21 games, and 4 of those came in one game. That's a 75 point pace vs. a 35 point pace.

The previous regime has been burned by giving out long-term deals to unproven players. Colin White had to be bought out. Norris and Chabot aren't really earning their keep. People always think these deals can't go bad, but they can and do.

Makes sense to bridge.

 

[BonHoonLayneCornell]

It's easy to see why the new GM would want to proceed with caution here. Pinto will be 24 years old early next season, but he has played very few NHL games [only 140!] and his high-water mark is 35 points. I don't think anybody really knows what he's going to be as an NHL player.

This season was really weird for him. He exploded out of the gate with 18 points in his first 20 games; shame can be a great motivator. But then he only had 9 points in the next 21 games, and 4 of those came in one game. That's a 75 point pace vs. a 35 point pace.

The previous regime has been burned by giving out long-term deals to unproven players. Colin White had to be bought out. Norris and Chabot aren't really earning their keep. People always think these deals can't go bad, but they can and do.

Makes sense to bridge.

I agree.

I think a lot of people, myself included at times, were excited that these could end up great value deals once they build up (obviously Dorion's strategy with them), but when you're signing a whole core to those, you really only need 1 or 2 to go sour to eliminate that benefit over going with the normal contract trajectory route and potentially paying max value, but getting them at a time their worth is more clearly defined.

 

[dumbdick]

I agree.

I think a lot of people, myself included at times, were excited that these could end up great value deals once they build up (obviously Dorion's strategy with them), but when you're signing a whole core to those, you really only need 1 or 2 to go sour to eliminate that benefit over going with the normal contract trajectory route and potentially paying max value, but getting them at a time their worth is more clearly defined.

Bang on. Trying to save money by signing ealy and long term is a recipe for disaster.

It only takes one deal to go south to erase the benefit of all the others.

 

[CallSaul]

The talk of giving Pinto 5x5, at this point, is nuts, IMO.

I think it's okay to bet on a few young guys before they've really made it, but you should make those bets on high-end players like Tkachuk, Stützle and Sanderson. Those guys are top 5 picks and elite talents.

You shouldn't bet on everyone.

As much as I like Pinto, a 2-3 year bridge is the right move. Both for the short term and long term. Let's see what he really is.

Hell, there's a possibility that by the end of next season, Greig is the guy we want to commit to, not Pinto.

Sometimes you need to make players earn it.

 

[Crosside]

Exactly, enough with long term deals. Everyone on bridge deal

 

[PlayOn]

5 million per is 3C money at this point, no?

Doesn’t feel all that risky to me. If he’s a 2C he’s underpaid, if he’s a 3C he’s adequately paid. I don’t think there’s a whole lot of risk in Pinto not being a very good player. The questions if you have them are about how much offence he can generate, and even if it’s not a ton, with everything else he brings I can’t see him being worth less than 5.

 

[CallSaul]

5 million per is 3C money at this point, no?

Doesn’t feel all that risky to me. If he’s a 2C he’s underpaid, if he’s a 3C he’s adequately paid. I don’t think there’s a whole lot of risk in Pinto not being a very good player. The questions if you have them are about how much offence he can generate, and even if it’s not a ton, with everything else he brings I can’t see him being worth less than 5.

Is it? I don't think a lot of teams pay their 3rd line C $5M. And if they do, it's because the player signed the deal after proving to be an above average 3rd line C (see: Pageau, Compher).

Pinto hasn't proven much at this point.

Honestly, I think asking for a deal like that following a season where you scored 9 goals and 27 points in 41 games plus got suspended for half the season due to gambling is real ballsy.

If I was Staios, I'd be pretty upfront about it being a ridiculous ask and make it clear that this isn't a Dorion operation anymore.

 

[PlayOn]

Is it? I don't think a lot of teams pay their 3rd line C $5M. And if they do, it's because the player signed the deal after proving to be an above average 3rd line C (see: Pageau, Compher).

Pinto hasn't proven much at this point.

Honestly, I think asking for a deal like that following a season where you scored 9 goals and 27 points in 41 games plus got suspended for half the season due to gambling is real ballsy.

If I was Staios, I'd be pretty upfront about it being a ridiculous ask and make it clear that this isn't a Dorion operation anymore.

Fair enough - you’re right it’s more high-end 3C money. Although with the cap rising, I think it’s going to be closer to average 3C money soon. I don’t think Pinto’s proven that so much as I think it’s a contract that is pretty unlikely to backfire.

But I can see why Staios wouldn’t be ready to give him that. Statistically he hasn’t earned it, really just hasn’t played enough games either.

 

[Nac Mac Feegle]

5 million per is 3C money at this point, no?

Doesn’t feel all that risky to me. If he’s a 2C he’s underpaid, if he’s a 3C he’s adequately paid. I don’t think there’s a whole lot of risk in Pinto not being a very good player. The questions if you have them are about how much offence he can generate, and even if it’s not a ton, with everything else he brings I can’t see him being worth less than 5.

If it was, there would be a lineup of teams begging for Joseph right now.

 

[PlayOn]

If it was, there would be a lineup of teams begging for Joseph right now.

Joseph isn’t a center. I don’t see the link here at all.

 

[CallSaul]

Joseph isn’t a center. I don’t see the link here at all.

I think when discussing contracts, fans overstate what the "going rate" for a 3rd liner is. That's probably what his point is. Many fans would say that $2.95M is the going rate for a 3rd liner, but many GMs, in reality, would want no part of Joseph, a 3rd liner, at $2.95M.

So when you say, "even if Pinto tops out as a 3rd line C, $5M is fair", I bet Staios disagrees.

 

[PlayOn]

I think when discussing contracts, fans overstate what the "going rate" for a 3rd liner is. That's probably what his point is. Many fans would say that $2.95M is the going rate for a 3rd liner, but many GMs, in reality, would want no part of Joseph, a 3rd liner, at $2.95M.

So when you say, "even if Pinto tops out as a 3rd line C, $5M is fair", I bet Staios disagrees.

That’s because Joseph is a dime a dozen winger and GMs have a plethora of options in that category. There’s no easier position to fill than an average middle pairing winger - it’s harder to find good bottom pairing dmen than it is to find another Joseph.

The market will never be over saturated with right-shot centres with size that can play a 200 ft game.

 

[dumbdick]

I would happily do a 5x5.

But pinto is my favourite player on the team.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

Nothing wrong with 5x5. A bridge would save $ short term and they may need it

 

[Micklebot]

That’s because Joseph is a dime a dozen winger and GMs have a plethora of options in that category. There’s no easier position to fill than an average middle pairing winger - it’s harder to find good bottom pairing dmen than it is to find another Joseph.

The market will never be over saturated with right-shot centres with size that can play a 200 ft game.

Both the numbers kind of hit the midpoint;

2.95 is about the intersection of low end 2nd line LW, to high end 3rd line LW

5 is is about the intersection of low end 2nd line C, to high end 3rd line C.


Joseph and Pinto both play fairly well rounded games (Pinto more so imo). I think Dorio bet on Joseph thriving with additional opportunity, and while he's shown flashes, he's inconsistent.

If we do the same with Pinto, and give him 5x5 or whatever, he may end up stuck in that middle ground, but it won't likely hurt the team. If he proves to be a top 6 player, you've got yourself a team friendly deal.

Idk how much lower we could get him for on a bridge, maybe low 3s times 2 years, in which case when he re-signs, you might end up paying 4-4.5 for him if he stalls out as an average 3rd line center, or 6+ if he proves to be a 2nd line center.

I don't see a lot of risk giving him 5, it's more about whether we can better use that money in years 1-2 than the savings we potentially get in years 3-5.

 

[PlayOn]

Both the numbers kind of hit the midpoint;

2.95 is about the intersection of low end 2nd line LW, to high end 3rd line LW

5 is is about the intersection of low end 2nd line C, to high end 3rd line C.


Joseph and Pinto both play fairly well rounded games (Pinto more so imo). I think Dorio bet on Joseph thriving with additional opportunity, and while he's shown flashes, he's inconsistent.

If we do the same with Pinto, and give him 5x5 or whatever, he may end up stuck in that middle ground, but it won't likely hurt the team. If he proves to be a top 6 player, you've got yourself a team friendly deal.

Idk how much lower we could get him for on a bridge, maybe low 3s times 2 years, in which case when he re-signs, you might end up paying 4-4.5 for him if he stalls out as an average 3rd line center, or 6+ if he proves to be a 2nd line center.

I don't see a lot of risk giving him 5, it's more about whether we can better use that money in years 1-2 than the savings we potentially get in years 3-5.

Yeah, I think Joseph is appropriately paid. But centres are hard to find, which means if a team needs one and they only have so many options, you aren’t likely to face the issue of a GM not being willing to take the money — it really just comes down to quality of player. I don’t think that’s true of wingers necessarily because you always have so many to choose from.

Anyway I agree with you. I think there’s value to a bridge too given our cap constraints. But I don’t think this is a concern from the perspective of what we did with previous contracts. Actually, when you think of what really hurt with Chabot and Norris, I’d argue it was the 8 years more than the dollar amount. At 5 years, this would be the last year of Chabot’s and Norris would have 3 left. So much easier to work with if in the middle you decided to go in a different direction or for another team to take a chance on them knowing they wouldn’t be stuck for too long.

 

[Nac Mac Feegle]

Yeah, I think Joseph is appropriately paid. But centres are hard to find, which means if a team needs one and they only have so many options, you aren’t likely to face the issue of a GM not being willing to take the money — it really just comes down to quality of player. I don’t think that’s true of wingers necessarily because you always have so many to choose from.

Anyway I agree with you. I think there’s value to a bridge too given our cap constraints. But I don’t think this is a concern from the perspective of what we did with previous contracts. Actually, when you think of what really hurt with Chabot and Norris, I’d argue it was the 8 years more than the dollar amount. At 5 years, this would be the last year of Chabot’s and Norris would have 3 left. So much easier to work with if in the middle you decided to go in a different direction or for another team to take a chance on them knowing they wouldn’t be stuck for too long.

First and second line centers are hard to find.

Once you hit the third and fourth lines, and third pairing blueliners, the options open up. Which is why you can't afford to overpay for the bottom half of your roster.

 

[bicboi64]

if Pinto is cool with 6 years $5 million aav, I'd do that. It would suck next season, but he'll be a bargain by year 2 of his deal imo.

 

[HoweHullOrr]

So much depends on how they view Pinto & his potential. Do they see him as a 2C, or a 3C? If you're not sure, then it could make more sense to go with the bridge. Pinto doesn’t have much in the way of full seasons to base things on.

 

[RickyLafleur]

This guy is legit, no clue why so many people here are doubting him. 5X5 or even add an extra year and it's gucci.

 

[SpezDispenser]

5x5 seems really in our favour. 5 x 3 years is more in line imo. I mean...I'd love a 5 x5 though

 

[Micklebot]

5x5 seems really in our favour. 5 x 3 years is more in line imo. I mean...I'd love a 5 x5 though

AFP analytics does UFA projections every year and tends to be pretty good, they have him at 3 mil on a 2 year deal or 5.2 on a 5 year deal based on his comparables

 

[SpezDispenser]

AFP analytics does UFA projections every year and tends to be pretty good, they have him at 3 mil on a 2 year deal or 5.2 on a 5 year deal based on his comparables

Son of a gun, let's do it but good then!

 

[Wondercarrot]

Nothing wrong with 5x5. A bridge would save $ short term and they may need it

$5x5+ seems like a no brainer
but yeah, makes sense that they also know Pinto longterm at 5 is good but also they need cap space right now.