Shanahan's biggest gaffe shows he's out of touch: revisiting the "Discounts" quote

[hamzarocks]

The only thing that fell behind for him were his ES goals, and he was snake-bitten for a good part of the middle of the season before coming in hot at the end. He's a career 12.5% shooter at ES and was barely over 10% this year. Even last year, which could have been better also, he was only at 11.5%. If he just shoots his career average at ES this year, he's on a 78 point pace with over 30 goals once again.

And that is playing 1.5 minutes less per game than his career average ice time too. If he maintained his current rate and just played the minutes he played 2 years ago, he would have had a 77 point pace with 30 goals (despite having the worst ES shooting percentage of his career). He's at 35 if he is at his career average for ES shooting, which also gets him to a PPG player.

Keep in mind that he's never played better defensive hockey in his career, and he did that with Nylander and a rotating set of 2LW's the entire year.

Keefe needs to adjust the TOI deployment in that case and we need JT to be better at converting chances. Two straight down years is concerning. We need to use him like an actual elite 1C rather than an afterthought on the offense.

AM and MM get too much of the offensive load. Keefe's usage in 2020 was good with WN and JT getting close to 18.5 minutes each.

Need to find a balance between giving AM and MM the chance to live up to their deals and actively force-feeding them minutes to the point where our other 2 stars aren't getting enough opportunity and we have MM and AM burnt out come playoffs.

Next year Keefe has to show he can be a systems coach instead of being a players coach. He's been poor in his first 2 series.

 

[Bluelines]

Lol the same Hunter that couldn’t draft to save his life? Name one Hunter pick outside the first round that isn’t a disappointment.

Dubas may not be the answer, but Hunter was by far worse.

Dermott

 

[KuleminFan41]

Keefe needs to adjust the TOI deployment in that case and we need JT to be better at converting chances. Two straight down years is concerning. We need to use him like an actual elite 1C rather than an afterthought on the offense.

AM and MM get too much of the offensive load. Keefe's usage in 2020 was good with WN and JT getting close to 18.5 minutes each.

Need to find a balance between giving AM and MM the chance to live up to their deals and actively force-feeding them minutes to the point where our other 2 stars aren't getting enough opportunity and we have MM and AM burnt out come playoffs.

Next year Keefe has to show he can be a systems coach instead of being a players coach. He's been poor in his first 2 series.

To be fair to JT, he hit 60 points in 63 games last season(wrist injury) and 50 points in 56 games this season, which was 3rd on the team each year. Sure, they're technically down years, but they aren't exactly normal years either. I don't think we can be too over analytical about this past season because of how strange its been. I mean, Marner scored more goals than Tavares, that's likely never to happen again lol

 

[Garthinater]

I've seen you mention a bunch of times how Matthews' career high was 63 points when he signed his contract, as if you can negotiate based only on that like he's a second line player, and ignore the fact that he was clearly the best goal scorer in the world not named Ovechkin.

What's up with that? You can't negotiate by pretending to be dumb.

When matthews signed, he was 6th in goals since he started. I wouldn't call that "clearly the best goal scorer in the world not named ovechkin".

Besides, points are far more valuable than just goals. Or do you think matthews > mcdavid?

Dubas gave matthews short term, front loaded, signing bonuses and made him the 3rd highest paid player with a career high of 63 points. Matthews gave nothing in return and has been invisible for several elimination games.

You don't get to negotiate using fantasy projections. Its based off what you have accomplished. Matthews was 20th in ppg and 6th in goals. How does that get you 11.34 x 5?

No forward has been made top 3 highest paid in the salary cap era with a career high of 63. Except matthews.

Dubas really dropped the ball on that deal.

 

[ITM]

Why did the hockey mecca of the world hire a rookie to be the president?

Who let this rookie president hire a rookie gm?

How did this rookie gm get to hire a rookie coach?

What a perplexing time to be a leafs fan.

I think Shanahan (avatar notwithstanding) has made a number of right decisions. We know them.

The financial entailments pre-Covid couldn't have been forecast. Many of the wrong decisions were predicated on assumptions few if any could have foreseen.

What's troublesome is the eggs in one basket approach that LL would likely have staved off. That's what's tough to take. We were right there.

And then there's JT. Don Cherry noted this on the one hand that "big dogs" (if that's the term he used) don't like competition. On the other hand, the chance to sign Tavares with the talent around him seemed a no-brainer, intangibles, be damned...or at least allowed to move on to the Islanders as seems the case.

+++

To the OP: Shanahan's discount comments aren't that inflammatory or unusual. We see evidence of discounts taken throughout the league in recent seasons. Perhaps it was timing, or that is was quoted while contracts were ongoing or newly completed, but the notion that some players take less while others are paid full and in certain instances in excess of their worth isn't a new thing.

I think what's so offensive is the complete absence of a team-first culture of sacrifice towards THE goal. And the opportunism taken, and then worse, honoured by management, has tarnished what started out as an encouraging enterprise but has taken on an all too apparent reality that what might have been may never be.

 

[Arzak]

If Matthews becomes an RFA he gets offersheeted... and likely at maximum cap hit... certainly much more than 11.6. Then what do you do? Let him walk for 4 first round picks?

Leafs couldn't let him reach RFA status. Big franchise center, generational goal scorer - unfortunately your at his mercy. Just got to hope he's not incredibly greedy.

Please tell me how much more than 11.6 M and 4 1st would this imaginary team paid? Also, 11.6M per 5 means we gave him the equivalent of 14M per 8 years, signing bonus heavy (even if you don't invest a single penny you can't ignore inflation and interest rates ).

Who offered 15M per year while giving up 4 firsts? 5 years getting him to UFA, this is the best contract in the league from a player perspective. The narrative someone would pay even more for 5 years to have the privilege of walking Matthews to UFA is just Leaf erotic fan fiction, helping people coup with it. Btw bet it was the same team offering Marner 12M per. That one elusive team (with 20 1st round picks stockpiled as they can't pay for it with 1st rounder from 2050) always waiting for your precious RFAs.

At the same time, Matthews on the best contract in hockey can not wait to get to UFA from Toronto. All these imaginary scenarios have Matthews signing these offer sheets, man you all see Matthes playing 8 years for Buffalo to get 12.5 with no signing bonus instead. Please can we call our 11.6M per year over 5 cheaper contract again?


Soo to summarize it, we lost potentially 4 1st in an offer sheet. 5 yr deal forced us to a few Foligno deals and a couple of Marleau deals to fit in that window of now or never. You can go ahead and say goodbye to any 1st you would get for trading him after 5 years should he still had 2/3 years left ...Mathews contract already cost you a small prospect pool and we'll pay for this contract for the next 10 + years missing those players.

 

[Menzinger]

Dermott

Him and Grundstrom on the King's are his biggest draft success outside of the top 5 selections. And imo a #5 D man and 4th liner (so far) isn't much to brag about.

Especially considering the team had 5 2nd round picks in that 2015-17 period and were top of the draft pecking order in '16 .and unless Lily finally cements a roster spot (hoping be does) the teams '17 draft class may not return a single NHL caliber player.

Imo a fairly disappointing period for the Leafs drafting.

 

[hotpaws]

Please tell me how much more than 11.6 M and 4 1st would this imaginary team paid? Also, 11.6M per 5 means we gave him the equivalent of 14M per 8 years, signing bonus heavy (even if you don't invest a single penny you can't ignore inflation and interest rates ).

Who offered 15M per year while giving up 4 firsts? 5 years getting him to UFA, this is the best contract in the league from a player perspective. The narrative someone would pay even more for 5 years to have the privilege of walking Matthews to UFA is just Leaf erotic fan fiction, helping people coup with it. Btw bet it was the same team offering Marner 12M per. That one elusive team (with 20 1st round picks stockpiled as they can't pay for it with 1st rounder from 2050) always waiting for your precious RFAs.

At the same time, Matthews on the best contract in hockey can not wait to get to UFA from Toronto. All these imaginary scenarios have Matthews signing these offer sheets, man you all see Matthes playing 8 years for Buffalo to get 12.5 with no signing bonus instead. Please can we call our 11.6M per year over 5 cheaper contract again?


Soo to summarize it, we lost potentially 4 1st in an offer sheet. 5 yr deal forced us to a few Foligno deals and a couple of Marleau deals to fit in that window of now or never. You can go ahead and say goodbye to any 1st you would get for trading him after 5 years should he still had 2/3 years left ...Mathews contract already cost you a small prospect pool and we'll pay for this contract for the next 10 + years missing those players.

I agree , no one was giving Mathews the max allowable which would have been 16m per yr . It was just bullshit and it came out a month after he signed and only after rumblings from the rest of the leagues GM's about how they were pissed about the deal Dubas gave him .

It was basically just damage control to try to defend the Dube's incompetence and the funniest part is how the O/S was going to come from the broke ass Yotes but for whatever reason some of the fans bought it . I guess some people need to believe the team isn't run by an incompetent idiot .

 

[Antropovsky]

Please tell me how much more than 11.6 M and 4 1st would this imaginary team paid? Also, 11.6M per 5 means we gave him the equivalent of 14M per 8 years, signing bonus heavy (even if you don't invest a single penny you can't ignore inflation and interest rates ).

Who offered 15M per year while giving up 4 firsts? 5 years getting him to UFA, this is the best contract in the league from a player perspective. The narrative someone would pay even more for 5 years to have the privilege of walking Matthews to UFA is just Leaf erotic fan fiction, helping people coup with it. Btw bet it was the same team offering Marner 12M per. That one elusive team (with 20 1st round picks stockpiled as they can't pay for it with 1st rounder from 2050) always waiting for your precious RFAs.

At the same time, Matthews on the best contract in hockey can not wait to get to UFA from Toronto. All these imaginary scenarios have Matthews signing these offer sheets, man you all see Matthes playing 8 years for Buffalo to get 12.5 with no signing bonus instead. Please can we call our 11.6M per year over 5 cheaper contract again?


Soo to summarize it, we lost potentially 4 1st in an offer sheet. 5 yr deal forced us to a few Foligno deals and a couple of Marleau deals to fit in that window of now or never. You can go ahead and say goodbye to any 1st you would get for trading him after 5 years should he still had 2/3 years left ...Mathews contract already cost you a small prospect pool and we'll pay for this contract for the next 10 + years missing those players.

What if a team offered him 12 million on 5 years? What do you do? You let him go? Add Matthews to a bunch of teams and you could've been looking at 4 mid to late round firsts. Matthews also has much more star power then most players... he attracts alot of fans given his pedigree and scoring ability... ownerships would be salivating to get their hands on him.

 

[Antropovsky]

I agree , no one was giving Mathews the max allowable which would have been 16m per yr . It was just bullshit and it came out a month after he signed and only after rumblings from the rest of the leagues GM's about how they were pissed about the deal Dubas gave AM .

It was basically just damage control to try to defend the Dube's incompetence and the funniest part is how the O/S was going to come from the broke ass Yotes but for whatever reason some of the fans bought it . I guess some people need to believe the team isn't run by an incompetent idiot .

San Jose was rumored to offer Tavares north of 14 million per year

There is no place like home. It wasn’t about linemates, facilities, blind loyalty or dollars. Tavares left as much as $14 million on the table, since the San Jose Sharks were believed to have offered a seven-year, $91 million deal.

It didn't have to be 16 million but if Marner had generated nearly two offers and Aho was offered 5x8.454 ... then you most certainly don't want to risk letting Matthews get there. If San Jose is offering 13 + for Tavares.... and Aho is getting 5 years at 8.5 ...im sure teams would have offered Matthews more. Also I'm sure they were looking at the new broadcasting deal that was supposed to make the cap jump in the near future (before the unpredictable COVID).

 

[hotpaws]

San Jose was rumored to offer Tavares north of 14 million per year

There is no place like home. It wasn’t about linemates, facilities, blind loyalty or dollars. Tavares left as much as $14 million on the table, since the San Jose Sharks were believed to have offered a seven-year, $91 million deal.

It didn't have to be 16 million but if Marner had generated nearly two offers and Aho was offered 5x8.454 ... then you most certainly don't want to risk letting Matthews get there. If San Jose is offering 13 + for Tavares.... and Aho is getting 5 years at 8.5 ...im sure teams would have offered Matthews more. Also I'm sure they were looking at the new broadcasting deal that was supposed to make the cap jump in the near future (before the unpredictable COVID).

yup there's always unconfirmed rumors but i like the bolded part , JT goes from being rumored to have been offered as much as 14 to he was offered 13 plus , they can't even keep they bullshit straight

but the best is how their trying to use Aho's actual signed offer sheet like some overpayment . lol

but maybe i'm wrong and all these rumors are true so i'll wait and see if Hyman signs for the 6m x 7yr rumored before i make a final decision whether to believe the rumors in the future . lol

 

[ToneDog]

yup there's always unconfirmed rumors but i like the bolded part , JT goes from being rumored to have been offered as much as 14 to he was offered 13 plus , they can't even keep they bullshit straight

but the best is how their trying to use Aho's actual signed offer sheet like some overpayment . lol

but maybe i'm wrong and all these rumors are true so i'll wait and see if Hyman signs for the 6m x 7yr rumored before i make a final decision whether to believe the rumors in the future . lol

SJ was rumoured to have offered 13x7. If you do not trust that, pretty sure Isles offered 11x8. Tavares took 11x7 instead.

 

[hotpaws]

SJ was rumoured to have offered 13x7. If you do not trust that, pretty sure Isles offered 11x8. Tavares took 11x7 instead.

the problem i have is why is it always the players we're looking to re sign/sign that have these rumors ?

how come there weren't monster offer sheets rumors that drove up the price on Rantanen or even Barzal , why can other teams get players signed to reasonable contracts but we have to compete against mystery rumors and pay through the ass ?

why is it every time Dubie gets bent there's a rumor someone else would have paid more and now it seems we're getting set up to overpay Hyman and have it spun like a discount because some mystery team was going to offer him more

 

[Arzak]

What if a team offered him 12 million on 5 years? What do you do? You let him go? Add Matthews to a bunch of teams and you could've been looking at 4 mid to late round firsts. Matthews also has much more star power then most players... he attracts alot of fans given his pedigree and scoring ability... ownerships would be salivating to get their hands on him.

Who would deplete the team of picks for 5 years? You don't have to pay 9 1sts for 8 years. Aside from 4 1sts now you had to move contracts for another 1sts and pay 1sts for Folignos. It all stems from 5year term.

The worst-case scenario, you matching 12 M per on an 8-year deal while Matthews not getting signing bonuses. You are getting three extra years.


All of this based on offer sheet no one saw...

List of NHL players who have signed offer sheets - Wikipedia here is the act

You deal with it the moment the player actually signs it. You have to believe this great offer sheet exists and Matthews didn't sign it because...He knew there is no need to sign it to force the Leafs to match it, he'll get the best contract in the league anyway?


Matthews signed no such offer, yet Leafs somehow matched it anyway. Since you asked. What would team do if offer of 12 mil per 5year was signed by Matthews ? Hmm they could actually match it and have him on same deal as now ( minus signing bonuses) or offer him 8 year deal equivalent ... One way or another none of it happened, Matthews either got no offers or nothing he would be comfortable signing. This narrative there was a better offer for him somewhere got no basis in reality. He got paid the most he could on 5 years term that gets him straight to UFA and that is fact, unlike this mysterious offer and yet you think the same Matthews got a better offer on the table and said naah I'll take less here (despite the fact I'm heading straight to UFA), don't bother with your 15 M per 5yr...

 

[HamiltonNHL]

How is tavares overpaid by 1

UFA

They fetch more

 

[Stephen]

the problem i have is why is it always the players we're looking to re sign/sign that have these rumors ?

how come there weren't monster offer sheets rumors that drove up the price on Rantanen or even Barzal , why can other teams get players signed to reasonable contracts but we have to compete against mystery rumors and pay through the ass ?

why is it every time Dubie gets bent there's a rumor someone else would have paid more and now it seems we're getting set up to overpay Hyman and have it spun like a discount because some mystery team was going to offer him more

I was suggesting at the time why not let Marner go sign his offer sheet and then go and offer sheet one of Rantanen, Point or Aho. I think it was also the year Panarin was a free agent, so there was a lot of big talent swimming around and even Aho eventually got an offer sheet for a very low amount of money.

Seems like one of those Toronto media "will he, won't he negative engagement storylines meets a hometown guy who was aware of his hometown status and really capitalized.

 

[Antropovsky]

Who would deplete the team of picks for 5 years? You don't have to pay 9 1sts for 8 years. Aside from 4 1sts now you had to move contracts for another 1sts and pay 1sts for Folignos. It all stems from 5year term.

The worst-case scenario, you matching 12 M per on an 8-year deal while Matthews not getting signing bonuses. You are getting three extra years.


All of this based on offer sheet no one saw...

List of NHL players who have signed offer sheets - Wikipedia here is the act

You deal with it the moment the player actually signs it. You have to believe this great offer sheet exists and Matthews didn't sign it because...He knew there is no need to sign it to force the Leafs to match it, he'll get the best contract in the league anyway?


Matthews signed no such offer, yet Leafs somehow matched it anyway. Since you asked. What would team do if offer of 12 mil per 5year was signed by Matthews ? Hmm they could actually match it and have him on same deal as now ( minus signing bonuses) or offer him 8 year deal equivalent ... One way or another none of it happened, Matthews either got no offers or nothing he would be comfortable signing. This narrative there was a better offer for him somewhere got no basis in reality. He got paid the most he could on 5 years term that gets him straight to UFA and that is fact, unlike this mysterious offer and yet you think the same Matthews got a better offer on the table and said naah I'll take less here (despite the fact I'm heading straight to UFA), don't bother with your 15 M per 5yr...

This is hard to follow... but what I think I'm reading is:

Your saying Matthews wasn't given an offersheet by other teams?

Matthews didn't reach RFA status... so teams were unable to talk to him or offer him anything.

Your saying if another team offered him 5 at 12 you sign that deal..then you talk about it being lower because of signing bonuses?

If another team offered him 12 million then it would be a 12 million cap hit. I don't think signing bonuses effect the cap hit.


Your saying if another team offers 5 years at 12 million you sign it or change it so it's for 8 years?
Also once the offersheet is signed by Matthews... leafs can only match the terms of the offersheet or let him go for picks. You can't offer him an 8 year contract.... it is whatever the offer sheet says it is.

So now your saying sign it and now your out another 400,000 per year. Isn't the reason your pissed about the contract is your saying 5x11,6000 is too much? Now your saying you'd be OK with waiting to RFA and signing him to an extra 400,000 per year?

 

[Muston Atthews]

Nylander is not overpaid lol

 

[hotpaws]

I was suggesting at the time why not let Marner go sign his offer sheet and then go and offer sheet one of Rantanen, Point or Aho. I think it was also the year Panarin was a free agent, so there was a lot of big talent swimming around and even Aho eventually got an offer sheet for a very low amount of money.

Seems like one of those Toronto media "will he, won't he negative engagement storylines meets a hometown guy who was aware of his hometown status and really capitalized.

i can't even blame the media/insiders because there paycheck depends on them throwing out rumors and stirring up a reaction , it's the people who blindly believe these rumors that bother me , lol

and hell i'd love to get paid for making up crap

 

[The Apologist]

i can't even blame the media/insiders because there paycheck depends on them throwing out rumors and stirring up a reaction , it's the people who blindly believe these rumors that bother me , lol

and hell i'd love to get paid for making up crap

There would be a lot of wealthy HFers, that's for sure.

 

[dj Mahoney]

Lou Lam GM of the Year
Once Again !!!

 

[Boxscore]

Tavares = overpaid by 1.5 million (maybe 2 million)
Marner = overpaid by 2 million
Matthews = overpaid by 1.5 million
Nylander = fairly paid

Overpaid by 5 million, which helps pay for two solid upgrades at least.

 

[Stonehands1990]

Players who don't negotiate in good faith = bridge or sit.
every time

Sitting hurts the player financially from wages and sponsors, publicly with fans etc

The team has leverage

 

[Seras]

I almost want Shanahan to be fired along with Dubas and whoever else touched you guys just to see how much worse this team gets without them.

Almost

 

[Aashir Mallik]

I almost want Shanahan to be fired along with Dubas and whoever else touched you guys just to see how much worse this team gets without them.

Almost

How does it get worse? We don’t make the playoffs? At least we have a higher pick, and then the expectations are low. We don’t have to witness another game 7 collapse. Or a 3-1 series lead choke. Or choking the game after a historic comeback. Or a 3-2 series lead choke. Or a 4-3 3rd period lead choke. This team and players have found a way to choke almost every way in the playoffs, all that’s left is a reverse sweep and a comeback from 3-0 to lose in game 7. It doesn’t get worse from here.