Shanahan's biggest gaffe shows he's out of touch: revisiting the "Discounts" quote

[Arzak]

Damn Shanny even talked the talk, what happened ? Between living on this planet knowing we need reasonable contracts ( like any potential contender) and getting a call from Marners papa..when in all went to hell?

 

[Antropovsky]

Matthews is still overpaid. I need to see him dominate the league outside of the North. He needs to be top 5 in hart/Lindsay yearly for that gross deal to be worth it.

1st season he fell short and underperformed, this year he had a huge year and was worth it.

If we are going back to the time of their signings

Marner at 8 years was worth 9.16M(gave the dude his jersey number) while at 6 years should have gotten 8M

Matthews at 8 years should have gotten 11M. At 5 years should have gotten 9M

Nylander at 8 years should have gotten 6.5M, while at 6 should have gotten 5.75M

We reversed the trend of full length deals with fair to slightly high but easily liveable up to deals

None of our guys were worth their cap hits at the time of signing and it took Nylander 3 contract years to be basically worth it, Matthews 2, with him having to be this dominant on a going-forward basis , and Marner still isn't there and probably wont ever be.

If Matthews becomes an RFA he gets offersheeted... and likely at maximum cap hit... certainly much more than 11.6. Then what do you do? Let him walk for 4 first round picks?

Leafs couldn't let him reach RFA status. Big franchise center, generational goal scorer - unfortunately your at his mercy. Just got to hope he's not incredibly greedy.

 

[centipede2233]

If Matthews becomes an RFA he gets offersheeted... and likely at maximum cap hit... certainly much more than 11.6. Then what do you do? Let him walk for 4 first round picks?

Leafs couldn't let him reach RFA status. Big franchise center, generational goal scorer - unfortunately your at his mercy. Just got to hope he's not incredibly greedy.

And he’s apparently incredibly greedy lol

 

[Seras]

Your drivel and negativity never get old, you guys are going to give yourselves a stroke.

Oh wait, you just say this stuff on a forum, trying to loudly over talk other negative comments to be the center of attention.

Continue then

 

[horner]

The Islanders have been better since Tavares left and the Leafs have been worse. as far as I know Tavares hasn’t won any personal awards in the NHL, no cup, but Dubas seem fit to pay him 11 million

My point exactly.

 

[Arzak]

2 mill on Marner... At best.

The rest are getting fair market. Some may even be providing surplus value at this point (Matthews + Nylander).

No. Unless you talking about Leaf's market, in that case, sure surplus value. Matthes 5yr 11M (with all the signing bonuses etc)is on a way better contract than McDavid. He gave him a run for his money this year playing North only, but what is a surplus-value on the best contract in the league? He got value this year.

Just for my amusement, fair market AVV for Matthews on 8 years contract. He got 11M with the team buying how many premium years again? You either take less to get to UFA or more to stay longer. Someone needs to explain to me again how 11M deal (which from pure goal per $ perspective is not bad),is good for the team since it's making your cap window 5 years while you are not playing Kane and Toews on favourable contracts to afford Hossa/Palat of the world.

 

[Arzak]

Its closer to 5M at the term which they are at

Nylander is should have gotten 7 million at 8 years

Marner should have gotten 9.25 at 8 years

Tavares should have gotten 10 at 7 years

Matthews should have gotten 11M at 8 years

caphit wise it's maybe 2-2.5M but we seriously lowered our contention window and ability to integrate potential prospects like (amirov, Robertson, sandin, lilijgren, niemela, hirvonen, hallinder, abramov etc.) onto the team at a steady rate.

The first four won't be huge impact players next year and will be at that level in 2022-2023 at best. The next 4 we are looking closer to 2024 before they are valuable NHL players

Dubas giving less than full-term contracts at above UFA rates put huge pressure on him to obtain results quickly. He is selling and will continue to sell young assets this upcoming season to try and obtain some results as the players have failed to deliver 3 years after he came and he has only 3 years at best (if we either win a round at least or MLSE blindly gives him that time) until we are on the clock and in for a world of pain with Nylander + Matthews becoming UFA's.

Dubas should not have paid Matthews like he was a top 3 player in the world during his contract when he still 2 years after the fact isn't at that level.

Marner shouldn't have been paid as a generational game-breaking winger

Nylander should not have gotten 7M after 2 months of throwing away his season.

There are many factors not just combine cap hit. Your ability to trade these contracts prior to expiring is close to non, meaning you diminished Leaf's assets significantly the moment you signed those deals.

Deals are made with cap % and projections in mind, with a flat cap every overpayment is highlighted. Then again if you hoped the rising cap would make some space for you down the line once all that potential meets the rising cap, how you justify 5,6 years contracts?



We'll see if these great contracts are movable at all this offseason. The ransom GMs are gonna throw at us for Nylander and Marner on team-friendly contracts. Also, JT who got knocked out of this dimension while not getting younger will surely bring even more (especially since the plan was to win it now before he ages to the point you'll have 11M on third line C).




These contracts and the way they are structured ensured you will be without 1st next 5 years trying to win it all from the first round and losing Matthews to UFA for nothing. We're gonna miss assets lost on Foligno soon. You couldn't wait for Marleau's contract to be off the books etc. These contracts are pricy from every angle you look at them.

 

[Trapper]

If Matthews becomes an RFA he gets offersheeted... and likely at maximum cap hit... certainly much more than 11.6. Then what do you do? Let him walk for 4 first round picks?

Leafs couldn't let him reach RFA status. Big franchise center, generational goal scorer - unfortunately your at his mercy. Just got to hope he's not incredibly greedy.

And unfortunately he was signed to reach UFA status as soon as possible.
Next (in 3 years) we can’t match or do anything.

Time isn’t a luxury we have.

 

[Bluelines]

Tough talk but I guess it ended up being for everyone after all.

Yup, you can have a great plan and good talking points but if you don't action your great plan and talking points, its really just fluff in the wind... it means nothing.

 

[Bluelines]

You genuinely think the Leafs' core is 7 mill overpaid combined... Some people seriously need a reality check.

It makes me smile, some arm chair QB's who have never run a Lemon Aid stand, seem to understand the economics of a billion dollar company better than all the bean counters at said company.

People you do get that every contract has to go through a vetting process? Kyle is not just throwing around contracts like a mad man? The bigger ones have to go past the owners. Who also have their own bean counters that vet the contract.

..mmm by my calculations my excel spread sheet says that Marner is over paid by $2.345 million Krona per quarter , Matthews is over paid $3.45 per second, Willie is over paid by $34 million per year he should be paying the Leafs to play and JT...well based on the xRDGMMMB stat.. he should play for free.... it's irrefutable... its all here on my Excel spread sheet... I got formulas and every thing...

 

[Racer88]

It makes me smile, some arm chair QB's who have never run a Lemon Aid stand, seem to understand the economics of a billion dollar company better than all the bean counters at said company.

People you do get that every contract has to go through a vetting process? Kyle is not just throwing around contracts like a mad man? The bigger ones have to go past the owners. Who also have their own bean counters that vet the contract.

..mmm by my calculations my excel spread sheet says that Marner is over paid by $2.345 million Krona per quarter , Matthews is over paid $3.45 per second, Willie is over paid by $34 million per year he should be paying the Leafs to play and JT...well based on the xRDGMMMB stat.. he should play for free.... it's irrefutable... its all here on my Excel spread sheet... I got formulas and every thing...

Just because it has to be approved by the owners and their accountants doesn’t mean that it isn’t an overpayment.
The accountant is going to say if they have enough money to pay and the owners ask the president if it will help us win.
Neither of those upper levels have any idea about if they are good value or not

 

[The Apologist]

f***ing right , why would the sky be falling when we got knocked out by two mediocre teams the last 2 playoffs with our superstar ufa center who was brought in to help us win a cup

and sure JT and Muzzin are getting older and regressing but who gives a damn about that

Good thing hockey will continue next year and we have the ability to trade/ sign people to change it up eh? Not that we should ever sign anyone because all they'll do is get 'older' and 'regress' right?
Only drafted players going forward. Look at the way Mitch and Auston carried us when JT (for some reason I can't put my finger on) didn't produce at all in the Habs series.

 

[The Apologist]

It makes me smile, some arm chair QB's who have never run a Lemon Aid stand, seem to understand the economics of a billion dollar company better than all the bean counters at said company.

People you do get that every contract has to go through a vetting process? Kyle is not just throwing around contracts like a mad man? The bigger ones have to go past the owners. Who also have their own bean counters that vet the contract.

..mmm by my calculations my excel spread sheet says that Marner is over paid by $2.345 million Krona per quarter , Matthews is over paid $3.45 per second, Willie is over paid by $34 million per year he should be paying the Leafs to play and JT...well based on the xRDGMMMB stat.. he should play for free.... it's irrefutable... its all here on my Excel spread sheet... I got formulas and every thing...

It's all true. In fact, it is my understanding that the JT contract single handedly ruined the entire economic outlook for North America and caused the housing crisis too.

 

[The Apologist]

Just because it has to be approved by the owners and their accountants doesn’t mean that it isn’t an overpayment.
The accountant is going to say if they have enough money to pay and the owners ask the president if it will help us win.
Neither of those upper levels have any idea about if they are good value or not

Nor does the fanbase clearly.

 

[Racer88]

Nor does the fanbase clearly.

Marner hasn’t scored a playoff goal in 3 years and is paid 11 million.
Do you consider that good value

 

[The Apologist]

Marner hasn’t scored a playoff goal in 3 years and is paid 11 million.
Do you consider that good value

Nope.
I don't think any player is worth what they're getting paid though.

I do think that Mitch is young enough and has shown enough that we can make a hockey deal and improve our team. I think that's clearly the move we make at this point.

It doesn't change the point made.

 

[Racer88]

Nope.
I don't think any player is worth what they're getting paid though.

I do think that Mitch is young enough and has shown enough that we can make a hockey deal and improve our team. I think that's clearly the move we make at this point.

It doesn't change the point made.

Fair enough. I respect your opinion…….I don’t necessarily agree with it but all good

 

[Cor]

Matthews is still overpaid. I need to see him dominate the league outside of the North. He needs to be top 5 in hart/Lindsay yearly for that gross deal to be worth it.

1st season he fell short and underperformed, this year he had a huge year and was worth it.

If we are going back to the time of their signings

Marner at 8 years was worth 9.16M(gave the dude his jersey number) while at 6 years should have gotten 8M

Matthews at 8 years should have gotten 11M. At 5 years should have gotten 9M

Nylander at 8 years should have gotten 6.5M, while at 6 should have gotten 5.75M

We reversed the trend of full length deals with fair to slightly high but easily liveable up to deals

None of our guys were worth their cap hits at the time of signing and it took Nylander 3 contract years to be basically worth it, Matthews 2, with him having to be this dominant on a going-forward basis , and Marner still isn't there and probably wont ever be.

Nah. Nylander legitimately signed in the same area of his comparables at the time. Matthews has been the second best Even Strength Goal Scorer, since he’s entered the league. Believe he might be the second best goal scorer overall.

Marner is worth about 8-9M. About 2-3M overpaid, depending on opinion.

 

[Bluelines]

It's all true. In fact, it is my understanding that the JT contract single handedly ruined the entire economic outlook for North America and caused the housing crisis too.

JT WHAT DID YOU DOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!???????????

 

[Bluelines]

Just because it has to be approved by the owners and their accountants doesn’t mean that it isn’t an overpayment.
The accountant is going to say if they have enough money to pay and the owners ask the president if it will help us win.
Neither of those upper levels have any idea about if they are good value or not

I interact with that level (multi millionaire executives) everyday and yes they do understand value and yes they do more than just make a binary calculation when it comes to expenses IE: I got 10 mil in my bank account, so I can afford anything at 10 mil or under. It's not so binary. the vetting process is quite more involved than just a dollar and cents calculation. These people are incredibly smart, frugal, cunning, tactical, ruthless, surround themselves with very smart people. Not all executives have all these traits but most have a combination of said traits. You don't get rich by being stupid or by throwing money away. I can say from personal experience, a few of these people on the MLSE board, on their worse day are smarter, quicker and better equipped to make financial decisions than we, the common man, are on our best day.

 

[ottomaddox]

He's outta touch, we're outta time ...

Hall and Oates have their fingerprints all over this team.

Hi5.

 

[TheScandal89]

His only real mistake was not keeping Lou. The team was on a upward trend until Dufus put his nerdy analytical fingers on the team.

If he's fired they both should be. There trying to keep us clinging on with a "big trade" rumor they probably wanted started when I know its gonna end up being a Domi or PK Subban or something

 

[egd27]

Except they don't, except in 'OMG we lost again' Leaf Land where the sky is clearly falling and the free agent superstar center who chose to come here is clearly an issue.

Due to paying $40M to 4 forwards, the Leafs had to shed a first to dump Marleau, move Brown, Kapanen, and Johnsson as cap dumps, and hope they could get lucky with resurrections like Vessey, Simmonds, Thornton, and Galchenyuk .

The first transaction that led to the Leafs paying $40M to 4 forwards was the signing of Tavares. If you have another explanation of how the cap issues got started, I'd be interested to hear them.

 

[Bluelines]

Due to paying $40M to 4 forwards, the Leafs had to shed a first to dump Marleau, move Brown, Kapanen, and Johnsson as cap dumps, and hope they could get lucky with resurrections like Vessey, Simmonds, Thornton, and Galchenyuk .

The first transaction that led to the Leafs paying $40M to 4 forwards was the signing of Tavares. If you have another explanation of how the cap issues got started, I'd be interested to hear them.

I was one of a few people who cringed when we signed JT to that big contract, not because I didn't like him as a player but because that cap hit was going to hurt. I remember watching the news conference and thought, that cap hit is going to bite us in the ass one day.

 

[Bluelines]

His only real mistake was not keeping Lou. The team was on a upward trend until Dufus put his nerdy analytical fingers on the team.

If he's fired they both should be. There trying to keep us clinging on with a "big trade" rumor they probably wanted started when I know its gonna end up being a Domi or PK Subban or something

Lou was always leaving, Lou said as much, he thought it was a year early but he know he was there for a short term fix. I remember it was a Hunter v Dubas controversy... who would be our next GM. I wonder if having Hunter would have made our trajectory any different (better?).

Jebus Subban or Domi , those guys are magnets for chaos... hard pass on both.