Shanahan's biggest gaffe shows he's out of touch: revisiting the "Discounts" quote

[Dreakmur]

Sure he did ... but he couldve got 12.5 for 5 years on an offersheet.

Offer sheets are a lot harder to make than most seem to think.

Who do you think makes that offer sheet? The Arizona team that couldn’t pay player their salaries recently?

 

[Dreakmur]

Marner wasn't going to sign an offersheet for that money...his bridge deal demand was $9 million over 3 years...he was determined to bend over the Leafs and Dubas let him.

Marner was never an offer sheet threat. Nobody was going to sign him for as much as Dubas gave him.

 

[myleafs]

There is no world where Tavares is worth 11 million other then Dubbie world

For a large chunk of this past season I thought he looked and played brutal and wondered if he had hit his nhl wall and was on a fast track to being washed up . In the last 10ish games he did pick up his game considerably, and I did like what I was seeing but I still don't see him anywhere near an 11 million dollar player and especially not one that we needed if we needed one at all.

 

[Stonehands1990]

Marner was never an offer sheet threat. Nobody was going to sign him for as much as Dubas gave him.

Big deal if he signs an offer sheet. Aho did. You do an analysis and match or take the picks

Business is business. Dubas gets is weak

 

[Mickey Marner]

On Weber offersheet:

They were, and Weber signed an offer sheet that was specifically designed to torpedo any match from the Predators.
The contract paid him $1 million in base salary with a $13 million signing bonus over the first four years; $4 million in salary with an $8 million bonus in years five and six; $6 million in years 7-10; $3 million in year 11; and $1 million in each of the final three years.
(RIP, deep back-sliding contracts.)
If the Predators matched, they would have been on the hook for $27 million for Weber, with $26 million of it guaranteed through a lockout.
Barry Petchesky of Deadspin called it “a CBA-Beating Masterpiece.”
The notion that the Predators would match this was, at the time, a long-shot. Nashville fans were left hoping that the threat that they might, or the Flyers’ cap considerations going forward, would net the Predators something more palpable than the four first-round picks. But the Flyers basically had all the leverage on a potential trade.
So the Predators were basically screwed, and the hockey world was Photoshopping Weber into Flyers jerseys.

Ironically, the financial cost isn't the worst part of that deal. The recapture penalty for matching it is.

 

[rumman]

People aren’t pissed just because it’s 5 years. He got the money of a contract that should have been 8 years, and he didn’t have to sign for 8 years.

Maybe it turns out 5 years of AM is better than 8? The guy hasn’t shown he’s nothing but a regular season highlight reel, clutch playoff performer not so much......

 

[HamiltonNHL]

5 years

And then he walks to Arizona.

 

[4thline]

So, in 20+ years, one offer sheet worked, and that was a 1st, 2nd and 3rd pick for a badly overpaid Penner.

Doesn’t seem like a serious threat.

The threat is validated by the demonstrated and inarguable willingness of GM's to pay heavily in assets to either give out or assume high (even too high) value contracts when they really want a player.

That the sheets weren't successful doesn't change the cold hard fact that they heavily impacted negotiations with the player.

Offersheets only become an option some combination of
-team trying to squeeze player
-player willing to rock the boat to get what they want
-outside GM willing to rock the boat to get the player

If we tried to play hardball with Matthews all three would have existed.

 

[4thline]

Sure he did ... but he couldve got 12.5 for 5 years on an offersheet.

I don't think that was the threat. 10x2 backloaded to set up a 12.5 qualifying offer is the play I would make if I wanted to land a disgruntled Matthews and put the Leafs in a bind

 

[Dreakmur]

The threat is validated by the demonstrated and inarguable willingness of GM's to pay heavily in assets to either give out or assume high (even too high) value contracts when they really want a player.

That the sheets weren't successful doesn't change the cold hard fact that they heavily impacted negotiations with the player.

Offersheets only become an option some combination of
-team trying to squeeze player
-player willing to rock the boat to get what they want
-outside GM willing to rock the boat to get the player

If we tried to play hardball with Matthews all three would have existed.

Who offers worse contexts than we signed?

 

[4thline]

Who offers worse contexts than we signed?

Like I said in a separate post I think the primary concern would be something similar to O'rielly, but with the wrinkle of being backloaded. 10.5 x 5 was a gimme that the majority of GM's in the league would put an offer in at. Then it becomes a question of how few years are they willing to do that, and trying to structure it so we wouldn't match.

Or someone going BIG by 7 years

 

[Garthinater]

No one talked about offer sheets for mcdavid, rants, barzal, point, etc.

But somehow matthews and marner were for sure going to get offers and so we had to overpay them to prevent some other team from potentially overpaying them.

How do some leaf fans buy that crap? Use your head.

 

[Dreakmur]

Like I said in a separate post I think the primary concern would be something similar to O'rielly, but with the wrinkle of being backloaded. 10.5 x 5 was a gimme that the majority of GM's in the league would put an offer in at. Then it becomes a question of how few years are they willing to do that, and trying to structure it so we wouldn't match.

Or someone going BIG by 7 years

Even if teams were willing to pay 10.5, there’s more to it.

They have to have the draft picks to make the offer. As of fight now, 10 teams don’t have the draft picks needed to make an offer this summer, and most prior years have been similar.

Marner also has to be willing to go to the team that he signs with, since Toronto can choose to take the picks. Marner can hope Dubas matches, but how much are you willing to bet?

 

[4thline]

Even if teams were willing to pay 10.5, there’s more to it.

They have to have the draft picks to make the offer. As of fight now, 10 teams don’t have the draft picks needed to make an offer this summer, and most prior years have been similar.

Marner also has to be willing to go to the team that he signs with, since Toronto can choose to take the picks. Marner can hope Dubas matches, but how much are you willing to bet?

My apologies, I'm speaking only about Matthews. Matthews was worth a 10.5 x 5, or 10 x 2, or what ever an opposing GM could get him to sign that they could reasonably hope would go unmatched. You had to respect the OS threat with Matthews.

Marner... is a different story entirely. He got to the OS period, so cards should have been on the table. His contract can't be explained by outside leverage, and it was a mistake the day it was signed.

Those negotiations were completely different animals, and Marner should have been put in his place.

 

[JT AM da real deal]

Offer sheets are a lot harder to make than most seem to think.

Who do you think makes that offer sheet? The Arizona team that couldn’t pay player their salaries recently?

SHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH da NHL did not want it out that it funded players salaries .. Alex having personal CF issues with pandemic given casino and food business shutdowns .. and they are not only team they are funding temporarily

 

[Antropovsky]

No one talked about offer sheets for mcdavid, rants, barzal, point, etc.

But somehow matthews and marner were for sure going to get offers and so we had to overpay them to prevent some other team from potentially overpaying them.

How do some leaf fans buy that crap? Use your head.

Mcdavid signed one year before he reached RFA... of course nobody talked about it. No reason to.

Certainly with Marner we should have let him sign somewhere else and take the 4 firsts.

 

[yubbers]

He makes less cap hit percentage than Pasternak. Time value of money is a reality

That's fair. But it was the beginning of the butterfly effect. Which is why many were on board with sitting him. Might as well have anyways cause he came back not ready.

He's one of our better came value contracts now however. Least of our worries. He'd get a good return. Your gonna eat shit on Marner or JT in a trade. AM is gonna walk imho.

 

[Stonehands1990]

That's fair. But it was the beginning of the butterfly effect. Which is why many were on board with sitting him. Might as well have anyways cause he came back not ready.

He's one of our better came value contracts now however. Least of our worries. He'd get a good return. Your gonna eat shit on Marner or JT in a trade. AM is gonna walk imho.

IMO JT was the butterfly effect. How can you sign an outsider to a massive deal then ask the internals for discounts. And Tavares isn’t 6,5 million dollar better than Kadri

 

[HamiltonNHL]

How can you sign an outsider to a massive deal then ask the internals for discounts.

because they are RFAs.

#BootBrendan
#SackShanny

Yes please

 

[Stonehands1990]

because they are RFAs.



Yes please

The RFA argument means nothing with top end talent. See McDavid, Eichel, Aho etc etc etc.

 

[JT AM da real deal]

Shanny was found out by a Star reporter flying from NYC to Raleigh yesterday .. he took in da game .. he occasionally goes to home games but road visits are few and far between .. where there is smoke there is fire

 

[BackPassChampions]

Shanny was found out by a Star reporter flying from NYC to Raleigh yesterday .. he took in da game .. he occasionally goes to home games but road visits are few and far between .. where there is smoke there is fire

What’re you hinting at? Can you elaborate?

 

[JT AM da real deal]

What’re you hinting at? Can you elaborate?

No idea .. I don't think he met with players though .. so likely either Dubie or Keefer discussion or both ..

 

[JT AM da real deal]

No idea .. I don't think he met with players though .. so likely either Dubie or Keefer discussion or both ..

Clearly he did not want to have call over da phone as it would have been pretty simple to talk on phone which I am sure happens daily anywho .. maybe Dubie asked him to come out, maybe he wanted to tell Dubie privately what he thinks or he plans on doing, or maybe he wanted to fly to Raleigh for a da of sun who knows .. anywho bottom line where there is smoke there is fire

 

[Rogue Leader]

Clearly he did not want to have call over da phone as it would have been pretty simple to talk on phone which I am sure happens daily anywho .. maybe Dubie asked him to come out, maybe he wanted to tell Dubie privately what he thinks or he plans on doing, or maybe he wanted to fly to Raleigh for a da of sun who knows .. anywho bottom line where there is smoke there is fire

This is very interesting. Could he actually be considering sacking Dubas? But like wanted to get a final look at the team to see if there is hope in it?