Confirmed with Link: Shanahan, Dubas, Keefe all staying

[ToneDog]

Leafs management playoff winning %

Coach Sheldon Keefe
8 playoff wins & 11 playoff losses and 3 X Lost in round #1 = .421 winning %

GM Kyle Dubas
11 playoffs wins & 15 playoff losses and 4 X lost in round #1 = .423 winning %

President Brendan Shanahan
16 playoff wins & 23 playoff losses and 6 X lost in round #1 = .410 winning %

If these were Exam scores they would all be getting D's.

View attachment 557957

A picture is worth 1000 words ...

Here graphically is how Leaf Nation Fans grade vs how individually management grades their own self performance.

View attachment 557964

Best winning % in franchise history = Run it Back 2022-23

What's worse is we were favorites in every series under Keefe and all 3 winner takes all games were played at home.

 

[The Podium]

What's worse is we were favorites in every series under Keefe and all 3 winner takes all games were played at home.

We weren’t favorites against Tampa until we lost and now need to push a narrative….

Tampa is running over the rest of the East, but had their handful with Toronto in round 1.

 

[ToneDog]

We weren’t favorites against Tampa until we lost and now need to push a narrative….

Tampa is running over the rest of the East, but had their handful with Toronto in round 1.

What narrative? They were the number 2 seed and hence why they got home ice.

 

[Gabriel426]

I watched Hustle last night and I gotta say, that speech about obsession over talent any time is quite true.

 

[notbias]

What's worse is we were favorites in every series under Keefe and all 3 winner takes all games were played at home.

We had even points vs Columbus, were we favourites?

Are we favourites against Montreal without Tavares?

Tampa, most people had us losing.

What narrative? They were the number 2 seed and hence why they got home ice.

so this means they weren't favourites against Columbus in your opinion?

 

[ToneDog]

We had even points vs Columbus, were we favourites?

Are we favourites against Montreal without Tavares?

Tampa, most people had us losing.

Come on. We were favourites/higher seed going into every series under Keefe. I still remember posters thinking the Jackets would be a cakewalk and I posted that they should not be taken lightly. Look it up if you want.

As for Tampa, some geniuses had Leafs in 4. I had Tampa in 7 but what the hell do I know?

 

[Dekes For Days]

We had even points vs Columbus, were we favourites?
Are we favourites against Montreal without Tavares?
Tampa, most people had us losing.

Columbus: Points don't matter! We were favourites!
Tampa: Points are all that matters! We were favourites!

 

[Dreakmur]

Then you see it incorrectly. Discuss your own opinions.

I'm discussion my opinion of your opinion... but I have to guess what your opinion is since you always cloak it.

That was not the premise, but if you want to change it up, it doesn't really matter. The fact remains that you don't need to have played in the NHL to "know how to win".

The entire premise was that experience helps. You argued that you don't need it. I agreed that it was a necessity, but that it was a lot harder to learn and understand things without actually experiencing them. You then built a strawman and argued against that instead.

I'm not sure why your vote would be inconsistent with your opinion, but to be clear, the only reason it was brought up in the first place was because you attempted to ignore and/or misrepresent hundreds of posts of my opinion as well as the discussion at hand, to instead attack me for your assumptions of my unrelated playoff prediction. At that point, noting that your playoff prediction was more incorrect than mine is fair game. I'm ready to move past this silly topic whenever you are.

If you want to pretend me voting in a poll encompasses the entirety of my opinion, that would be.... entirely consistent with you MO.... wait, never mind...

Again, I said I hoped they would win. I was sure they'd lose a game 7, but I wanted them to win, so I voted a win in 6.

In my discussions, I consistently address both what things are and what things aren't. I have spoken on contract valuation and negotiations a ton, and have done countless comparisons for our core forward contracts - proving them to be consistent with the history of post-ELC contracts. Your statements on both Nylander and contract valuation were wildly inaccurate, and deserved to be called out. Contract valuation involves much more than cherry picking one other player's raw points, incorrectly adjusted and contextualized, in exclusively their final season.

No you don't.

You didn't address it in your post. You took one season that you claimed is irrelevant, and exaggerated the difference in specifically their ES scoring rates, while completely ignoring the actual massive advantage Nylander had in his PP scoring rates that year. Your only mention of the PP was the difference in their time in that particular season, while conveniently failing to mention that Pastrnak hadn't shown a proficiency on the PP worthy of time.

Just because you didn't understand it, or that you disagree with it, doesn't mean it wasn't addressed.

I took one season, that I claimed had much less value than the following one and explained that I was looking at it because I knew you placed value on it.

PP production is tied to the functionality of the unit a lot more than even strength scoring. That's why ES scoring is a lot better measure of the player's ability to actually create offense.

But, since we're talkingPP, what PP unit was Pastrnak on? Was his PP time skewed more to the start of the season or the end, or was it about even throughout?

Columbus: Points don't matter! We were favourites!
Tampa: Points are all that matters! We were favourites!

Context only matters when it helps Dubas I guess...

 

[Mess]

What's worse is we were favorites in every series under Keefe and all 3 winner takes all games were played at home.

That is correct , Keefe and Dubas and their embarrassing .420 playoff winning % was actually the favourites in all their series.

Keefe lost Game #1 and Game #5 against CBJ with home ice advantage, and got shutout in both losing 2 of the 3 homes advantage games with last change.
Keefe lost Game #1, Game 5 and Game #7 against Montreal on home ice. He lost 3 of 4 home games against the lowest ranked team to enter the playoffs.
Keefe lost Game #2, Game # 7 against Tampa Bay.

Meanwhile the underdog TB Lightening with 110 regular season points, defeated the favourite 115 point Leafs in round #1, the President's trophy 122 points Panthers in round #2 and are up 3-2 as underdogs against the NYR in round #3

It just shows how meaningless spouting regular season winning % really means, when it comes to playoff results.

Keefe has won 8 playoff games vs Barry Trotz who has won 8 playoff rounds over that same time and sitting their for the taking, and despite all the evidence Keefe is perceived as doing a great job, while those results didn't buy much better coaches any goodwill, only bought Keefe more time as its perceived by his boss that some day he will be just like other already successful coaches,

Sadly the level of tolerance in accepting failure is higher in some organizations than others, and unfortunately our Leafs are one of them.

 

[Dreakmur]

We had even points vs Columbus, were we favourites?

Remember the whole "we were much better under Keefe" thing that was going around? "We were a 110 point team if he coached all year". "We were only so low in the standings because Babcock sucked".

None of that ringing a bell?

Just look at the rosters and tell me we shouldn't have won that series....

 

[Mess]

We weren’t favorites against Tampa until we lost and now need to push a narrative….

Tampa is running over the rest of the East, but had their handful with Toronto in round 1.

Toronto finished 2nd in the Atlantic with 115 points (all-time franchise best) and Tampa Bay finished 3rd with 110 points.

4 of the 7 games in the series were played in Toronto making them the home ice favouites in the series, giving the coach last change & line matching and home crowd advantage.

If that doesn't make the team with more points and home ice the favourites, then what does?

So apparently Keefe's all-time winning % means very little, because he keeps losing to teams in the playoffs where his team finished with more regular season points and gained home ice advantage, but somehow now the underdog and expected to lose, but put up a good fight.

In 6 of the 8 first round playoff series in 2022 the favourite with more points and home ice won & advanced, Leafs of course one of the exception to that rule.

 

[Gabriel426]

I just love how before each series, we are like, Leafs will beat them, Leafs is a better team, bc if Keefe was the coach for the whole season, our records would have been much better, who cares if they have Price, AM always score on him, TB is no longer TB of the past, we can take them and we got home ice…….
Then after the series, it was a tough matchup, we got outgoalied, if our players didn’t get injured, it was back to back Champs…..
How about our top guys just didn’t show up and raise their games like other top guys. McD and Drai had more points in this playoffs alone than some of our guys for the past three series.

It doesn’t matter if we were favs or underdogs, all they need is win, something they couldn’t do.

 

[ShaneFalco]

Keefe is perceived as doing a great job,

I've yet to hear any arguments indicating why. Keefe is such a good coach other than regular season record. Which is weak with this roster

 

[ToneDog]

Columbus: Points don't matter! We were favourites!
Tampa: Points are all that matters! We were favourites!

LOL. The bias guy was talking points. I was talking seeding. Good try though and thanks for playing.

 

[usernamezrhardtodo]

Columbus: Points don't matter! We were favourites!
Tampa: Points are all that matters! We were favourites!

Columbus was playing us in our building...yes that makes the tie in points go to the home team having an advantage.

Tampa was the 3rd seed...we had home ice advantage and a very slight edge in the betting line.

 

[ToneDog]

I'm discussion my opinion of your opinion... but I have to guess what your opinion is since you always cloak it.



The entire premise was that experience helps. You argued that you don't need it. I agreed that it was a necessity, but that it was a lot harder to learn and understand things without actually experiencing them. You then built a strawman and argued against that instead.



If you want to pretend me voting in a poll encompasses the entirety of my opinion, that would be.... entirely consistent with you MO.... wait, never mind...

Again, I said I hoped they would win. I was sure they'd lose a game 7, but I wanted them to win, so I voted a win in 6.



No you don't.



Just because you didn't understand it, or that you disagree with it, doesn't mean it wasn't addressed.

I took one season, that I claimed had much less value than the following one and explained that I was looking at it because I knew you placed value on it.

PP production is tied to the functionality of the unit a lot more than even strength scoring. That's why ES scoring is a lot better measure of the player's ability to actually create offense.

But, since we're talkingPP, what PP unit was Pastrnak on? Was his PP time skewed more to the start of the season or the end, or was it about even throughout?



Context only matters when it helps Dubas I guess...

Poster argues Jackets had as many points as Leafs and the minister of propaganda steps in and tries to make it look like I am talking out of both sides of my mouth. #Embarassing.

I've yet to hear any arguments indicating why. Keefe is such a good coach other than regular season record. Which is weak with this roster

I hear Dubas has contracted out work for his statue for legends row.

 

[Gabriel426]

What a clown. Poster argues Jackets had as many points as Leafs and the minister of propaganda steps in and tries to make it look like I am talking out of both sides of my mouth. #Embarassing.



I hear Dubas has contracted out work for his statue for legends row.

I hope it is a statue with him shaking hands, that way I can take a pic shaking hand with his statue and pay my respect.

 

[socko]

I don't get why they all weren't fired immediately. What are you going to do, fire him when you're trying to get Matthews signed to a new contract? The Mrazek contract is second only to the Tavares contract in team killing potency. Who the hell gives a mediocre backup goalie that much money? Nobody who has a clue, that's for sure.

 

[Enniskillen]

Cassidy and Trotz have been fired while keefe is still in charge. That’s funny and sad at the same time.

 

[ToneDog]

I don't get why they all weren't fired immediately. What are you going to do, fire him when you're trying to get Matthews signed to a new contract? The Mrazek contract is second only to the Tavares contract in team killing potency. Who the hell gives a backup goalie that much money? Nobody who has a clue, that's for sure.

Let's not forget the 3 years and M-NTC and to make matters worse let's give him most (75% - 8.6m/11.4m) of the money the last two years on the deal so it will cost us more to dump him. Total incompetence and a fireable offence IMO. Thank God he is a genius because I'd hate to think what a dummy like JFJ would have paid Mrazek.

 

[Stamkos4life]

We weren’t favorites against Tampa until we lost and now need to push a narrative….

Tampa is running over the rest of the East, but had their handful with Toronto in round 1.

Look at you being all defensive.

The leafs had home ice in all three series'. It doesn't get any simpler than that.

The only "narrative" I see is coming from the dubas fan boys trying to excuse another failed season.

 

[The Podium]

Look at you being all defensive.

The leafs had home ice in all three series'. It doesn't get any simpler than that.

The only "narrative" I see is coming from the dubas fan boys trying to excuse another failed season.

Toronto finished 2nd in the Atlantic with 115 points (all-time franchise best) and Tampa Bay finished 3rd with 110 points.

4 of the 7 games in the series were played in Toronto making them the home ice favouites in the series, giving the coach last change & line matching and home crowd advantage.

If that doesn't make the team with more points and home ice the favourites, then what does?

So apparently Keefe's all-time winning % means very little, because he keeps losing to teams in the playoffs where his team finished with more regular season points and gained home ice advantage, but somehow now the underdog and expected to lose, but put up a good fight.

In 6 of the 8 first round playoff series in 2022 the favourite with more points and home ice won & advanced, Leafs of course one of the exception to that rule.

Having home ice does not make you the series favorite…. Neither of you had the Leafs making it out of the first round against Tampa but now they are the favorites? Give me a break. I get that this team lost the benefit of the doubt when they lost to the Blue Jackets and Habs, but at least look at it objectively.

They went up against the back to back Stanley cup champs who were neck and neck with them until the last 3 games of the season. So close in fact, people were worried the Leafs were going to lose home ice advantage.

The Leafs weren’t the favorites in that series, at the very best you can say that it was even.

You guys must think the NYR are the favorites to come out of the East.

Oh wait… Mess doesn’t believe that

Tampa on the other hand finished on their way to a 3-peat, and never even won their division on previous Cup runs and finished 3rd in the Atlantic behind both Florida and Toronto and won both those series this year without home ice advantage.

Kind of shows how meaningless the regular season results are when it comes to playoff success, as long as you get in.

PS. It looked to me like Tampa was coasting down the stretch of the regular season, conserving energy for another playoff run, now they're turning it on and have won 7 of their last 8 games and are in the final 4.

 

[Antropovsky]

Having home ice does not make you the series favorite…. Neither of you had the Leafs making it out of the first round against Tampa but now they are the favorites? Give me a break. I get that this team lost the benefit of the doubt when they lost to the Blue Jackets and Habs, but at least look at it objectively.

They went up against the back to back Stanley cup champs who were neck and neck with them until the last 3 games of the season. So close in fact, people were worried the Leafs were going to lose home ice advantage.

The Leafs weren’t the favorites in that series, at the very best you can say that it was even.

You guys must think the NYR are the favorites to come out of the East.

Kucherov only played 47 games this year too.

Imagine if we lost Matthews for half the season.

 

[egd27]

Columbus was playing us in our building...yes that makes the tie in points go to the home team having an advantage.

Tampa was the 3rd seed...we had home ice advantage and a very slight edge in the betting line.

Don't forget, the only reason we had so few points in the Columbus year was because of Babcock.....once Keefe took over they were "elite". Well until the post season anyway.

 

[ToneDog]

Having home ice does not make you the series favorite…. Neither of you had the Leafs making it out of the first round against Tampa but now they are the favorites? Give me a break. I get that this team lost the benefit of the doubt when they lost to the Blue Jackets and Habs, but at least look at it objectively.

They went up against the back to back Stanley cup champs who were neck and neck with them until the last 3 games of the season. So close in fact, people were worried the Leafs were going to lose home ice advantage.

The Leafs weren’t the favorites in that series, at the very best you can say that it was even.

You guys must think the NYR are the favorites to come out of the East.

Oh wait… Mess doesn’t believe that

No doubt the Leafs and Lightning were close but the Leafs were the favourites going into the series. If they had balls they would have won the series in 6 but I digress. This is what I found from thescore. Feel free to do your own searches if you can't accept the fact.

Series odds​

[TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TH]TEAM[/TH]
[TH]GAME 1[/TH]
[TH]SERIES[/TH]
[TH]SERIES HANDICAP[/TH]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Maple Leafs[/TD]
[TD]-130[/TD]
[TD]-120[/TD]
[TD]TOR -1.5 (+160)[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Lightning[/TD]
[TD]+110[/TD]
[TD]+100[/TD]
[TD]TBL +1.5 (-190)[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

You might not even believe they were favoured in game 7.

Lightning vs Leafs Game 7 Odds​

Team	Moneyline	Puckline	Total
Tampa Bay Lightning	+107	+1.5 (-235)	O 6.5 (-113)
Toronto Maple Leafs	-124	-1.5 (+190)	U 6.5 (-106)