Confirmed with Link: Shanahan, Dubas, Keefe all staying

[Nineteen67]

We had already moved into a phase where we sent out high picks for a goalie, signed UFAs to make us more competitive, acquired rentals, used our players as own rentals, etc. Without Tavares, we would have taken a step back instead of forward, but whether or not we were guaranteed to make the playoffs, we were guaranteed to finish high enough that rebuilding was no longer a viable strategy.

Yes exactly!
Premature signings and self-inflicted wounds have hindered them from winning. Dubas’ on the job training cost the franchise a minimum of $25million.

 

[notbias]

Wouldn't it be 1.5x4 so 6? Although I assume it's more likely 2x1.5 1@1 1@min. Holmberg still worries me but i guess you can get a guy at min

That's the reason you use him in a goalie deal because of his value. I wouldn't trade him for a Gibson more so someone like an ottenger/demko/blackwood. The unfortunate fact is we're going to have to pay up for a goalie due to mrazek being unreliable why not get a good one and also let us be more flexible

If those goalies are available, sure, would love that, but I don't think any are, Blackwood is not worth Nylander in my opinion but would consider Nylander for the other two.

My only worry with Nylander is if he ever puts it together and gets consistent with his play, he could easily be a consistent PPG+ player.

I think it is much more likely we package someone like Sandin (likely the odd man out) and some futures for a deal that sees us get a goalie and sends Mrazek out.

Holmberg is just a placeholder, but I think he is potentially the most NHL-ready, he's put up great numbers in the SHL and is responsible defensively.

There are a lot of ways to go about this, my whole thing was that Toronto is not in some dire cap situation, the biggest issue is finding a goalie, but cap-wise, we are in a good situation with a couple of players being overpaid a little and no anchors of a contract.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Yes exactly! Premature signings and self-inflicted wounds have hindered them from winning. Dubas’ on the job training cost the franchise a minimum of $25million.

Uh... What? We were discussing how the rebuild was over, and I'm not sure how you got from there to this, or why you're blaming Dubas for things Lou did, or how you came to the belief that he "cost the franchise a minimum of $25m".

 

[ToneDog]

If those goalies are available, sure, would love that, but I don't think any are, Blackwood is not worth Nylander in my opinion but would consider Nylander for the other two.

My only worry with Nylander is if he ever puts it together and gets consistent with his play, he could easily be a consistent PPG+ player.

I think it is much more likely we package someone like Sandin (likely the odd man out) and some futures for a deal that sees us get a goalie and sends Mrazek out.

Holmberg is just a placeholder, but I think he is potentially the most NHL-ready, he's put up great numbers in the SHL and is responsible defensively.

There are a lot of ways to go about this, my whole thing was that Toronto is not in some dire cap situation, the biggest issue is finding a goalie, but cap-wise, we are in a good situation with a couple of players being overpaid a little and no anchors of a contract.

Gibson might be a buy-low candidate but he comes with a 6.4mx5 cap hit. Guy clearly needs a change of scenery. Risky unless Ducks retain 25-50% IMO.

Servelli said Blackwood will be going on his trade list soon. NJ would have to add to get Nylander.

 

[Nineteen67]

Uh... What? We were discussing how the rebuild was over, and I'm not sure how you got from there to this, or why you're blaming Dubas for things Lou did, or how you came to the belief that he "cost the franchise a minimum of $25m".

Maybe it cost closer to $50 million. And if they’ve already peaked? Yikes.

 

[notbias]

Gibson might be a buy-low candidate but he comes with a 6.4mx5 cap hit. Guy clearly needs a change of scenery. Risky unless Ducks retain 25-50% IMO.

Servelli said Blackwood will be going on his trade list soon. NJ would have to add to get Nylander.

Not sure I want to touch Gibson at all as I think he is risky too, and most goalies, in general, seem to fluctuate in performance outside of the really elite ones, not sure many goalies are worth 5+ million on long-term contracts.

Ya, I think Blackwood is more of a Sandin level prospect type of trade, and I think Sandin is on the move due to us being overloaded on the left-side, it makes sense if NJ is looking to move him and LD is a need (which it does not look to be).

 

[Dekes For Days]

Maybe it cost closer to $50 million. And if they’ve already peaked?

Again, what are you talking about? What is this 50m claim even referencing? Who or what do you think has peaked? Did you reply to the wrong person?

 

[Racer88]

I wouldn’t consider the rebuild long done when making the playoffs wasn't an almost guaranteed result. Let’s face it, the defence was hideous and the goaltending was, Freddy Andersen.

Yup. The only person who thought the rebuild was done was Dubas when he went and got Tavares.

 

[Dekes For Days]

The only person who thought the rebuild was done was Dubas when he went and got Tavares.

Everybody knew the rebuild was done when we spent a 1st and 2nd on a goalie, drafted Matthews, and had Marner/Nylander ready for the NHL, and then it was repeatedly solidified with the rentals, own rentals, UFA signings, etc. that we saw under Lou. There was no going back to a rebuild at that point. It was either sign Tavares and have a legitimate chance at contention, or not sign Tavares and likely fall into years of limbo.

 

[Racer88]

Everybody knew the rebuild was done when we spent a 1st and 2nd on a goalie, drafted Matthews, and had Marner/Nylander ready for the NHL, and then it was repeatedly solidified with the rentals, own rentals, UFA signings, etc. that we saw under Lou. There was no going back to a rebuild at that point. It was either sign Tavares and have a legitimate chance at contention, or not sign Tavares and likely fall into years of limbo.

Just because they did that didn’t mean that the rebuild should have been over..
we signed Tavares and it has been a mess in the playoffs so far.
40 million dollars spent on our top 4 forwards and not 1 of them could score ever a single goal in game 7…….sounds like Tavares made all the difference in the world

 

[Dekes For Days]

Just because they did that didn’t mean that the rebuild should have been over..

Whether or not you think the rebuild should have been over, the rebuild was very obviously over, and had been for 2 years by the time Dubas took over. You can't go back at that point.

 

[Dreakmur]

That may be your opinion, but it's not mine.

It's definitely your opinion. You couldn't possibly be more transparent.

Not only is that a bad analogy, but that's not even what was being discussed. The point was that you don't need to play in the NHL to "know what it takes to win".

The point was that you don't need to be tall and athletic to play in the NBA.

Not playing the game makes it MUCH harder to know what it truly takes to win. Not knowing what it takes to win makes it MUCH harder to build a winning team. It's doesn't make it impossible, but it's pretty close.

Still only you. I'm just relaying what you voted, because you attempted to weirdly throw stones about something you were more incorrect about.

You just did it again.

Unlike many here, I do know how comparables and contract valuation works, which is why I understand that Nylander was not overpaid, and contract valuation is about more than just cherry picking one other player's raw points, incorrectly adjusted and contextualized, in exclusively their final season and calling it a day.

There's an infinite number of ways to compare players. If you do it poorly, I supposed you can come to the conclusion that Nylander and Pastrnak are equal.

No, you're leaving out quite a bit.

I'm leaving out the individual decisions that got us from point a to point b, which was my point.

 

[egd27]

Where is this written in the CBA?

I've heard that argument a few times from that poster. Apparently he is under the impression that there are certain items that can or cannot be brought up during a contract negotiation instead of using whatever information is available to improve your position.

 

[Dekes For Days]

It's definitely your opinion.

It's not my opinion. Please stop misrepresenting posters, and putting words in their mouths.

Not playing the game makes it MUCH harder to know what it truly takes to win.

That's not true. You don't need to play in the NHL to "know what it takes to win". You should go tell the back-to-back Stanley Cup winning GM and coach that neither of them know what it takes to win. I'm sure they'll have a laugh.

You just did it again.

Yes, I did indeed point out that you were more incorrect about our playoff outcome, when you attempted to throw a stone in a glass house.

There's an infinite number of ways to compare players. If you do it poorly, I supposed you can come to the conclusion that Nylander and Pastrnak are equal.

On the contrary, if one compares players incorrectly - like say, cherry picking one other player's raw points, incorrectly adjusted and contextualized, in exclusively their final season - then they may incorrectly think that Pastrnak and Nylander were incomparable at the time of their respective signings, or that Nylander's contract is abnormal relative to the history of post-ELC contracts.

I'm leaving out the individual decisions that got us from point a to point b

You're leaving out quite a lot.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Apparently he is under the impression that there are certain items that can or cannot be brought up during a contract negotiation instead of using whatever information is available to improve your position.

I mean, you can technically bring up whatever you want, at least outside of arbitration. It's a free country. You could go in and say the sky is blue and water is wet so pay me 1 billion dollars. However, many things - like that, or trying to use a UFA contract as a comparable for a post-ELC contract, or trying to use a forward contract as a comparable for a goalie contract - would just get you laughed out of the room, and have no relevance to the actual negotiation or resulting contract.

 

[egd27]

I mean, you can technically bring up whatever you want, at least outside of arbitration. It's a free country. You could go in and say the sky is blue and water is wet so pay me 1 billion dollars. However, many things - like that, or trying to use a UFA contract as a comparable for a post-ELC contract, or trying to use a forward contract as a comparable for a goalie contract - would just get you laughed out of the room, and have no relevance to the actual negotiation or resulting contract.

"My client, Mr. Matthews, is the organization's most important asset and should be paid accordingly. Currently Mr. Tavares is this team's highest paid player and it is our position that this distinction should belong to Mr. Matthews."

IMO, considerably more reasonable (and likely) argument than your "sky is blue and water is wet so pay me 1 billion dollars" example.

 

[Dekes For Days]

"My client, Mr. Matthews, is the organization's most important asset and should be paid accordingly. Currently Mr. Tavares is this team's highest paid player and it is our position that this distinction should belong to Mr. Matthews." IMO, considerably more reasonable (and likely) argument than your "sky is blue and water is wet so pay me 1 billion dollars" example.

The answer to both would be the same "Haha. Okay, now let's get serious, and discuss how he compares to his post-ELC comparables", but I doubt an agent would ever say either in the first place, because it would look pretty unprofessional. Either way, it wouldn't affect the resulting contract.

 

[egd27]

The answer to both would be the same "Haha. Okay, now let's get serious, and discuss how he compares to his post-ELC comparables", but I doubt an agent would ever say either in the first place, because it would look pretty unprofessional. Either way, it wouldn't affect the resulting contract.

I realize how difficult it is for some people to to acknowledge that " There are more things in heaven and earth, Horatio, Than are dreamt of in your philosophy." is quite accurate.

My bad for attempting to suggest it.

 

[Dekes For Days]

I realize how difficult it is for some people to to acknowledge that " There are more things in heaven and earth, Horatio, Than are dreamt of in your philosophy." is quite accurate. My bad for attempting to suggest it.

Love Hamlet. Your quote isn't applicable to the discussion unfortunately, but I'll take any opportunity to appreciate Shakespeare.

 

[Dreakmur]

It's not my opinion. Please stop misrepresenting posters, and putting words in their mouths.

It absolutely is.

That's not true. You don't need to play in the NHL to "know what it takes to win". You should go tell the back-to-back Stanley Cup winning GM and coach that neither of them know what it takes to win. I'm sure they'll have a laugh.

Pointing out a handful of exceptions doesn’t disprove the premise.

You’d have to be an absolute fool to think it’s not easier to build something that you truly understand.

Yes, I did indeed point out that you were more incorrect about our playoff outcome, when you attempted to throw a stone in a glass house.

Even if you think I absolutely believed they would win, that would make us equally wrong on one occasion.

On the contrary, if one compares players incorrectly - like say, cherry picking one other player's raw points, incorrectly adjusted and contextualized, in exclusively their final season - then they may incorrectly think that Pastrnak and Nylander were incomparable at the time of their respective signings, or that Nylander's contract is abnormal relative to the history of post-ELC contracts.

The most recent year is by far the most important for players exiting their ELC.

Scoring rates absolutely matter. In as higher scoring season, points were objectively easier to get, which makes them less valuable.

 

[fahad203]

Sometimes I have random thoughts

Like why didn’t Keefe stack the line with Tavares Matthews and Marner right away to get the tying goal as opposed to waiting until last 3 minutes of the game ?

I mean the goal should have been to get the tie goal right away. Especially against vasi known to get shutouts in clinching games

You could have always gone back to your normal lines later

I have never see a coach who is so incompetent yet so loved

 

[All Mod Cons]

Dubas rushed the rebuild. Couldn't help himself. He's been pissing away draft picks ever since. We once had such a great future. Then we signed Tavares.

 

[Dekes For Days]

It absolutely is.

It's not. You can speak on your opinions, but not other people's.

Pointing out a handful of exceptions doesn’t disprove the premise. You’d have to be an absolute fool to think it’s not easier to build something that you truly understand.

Again, that's not even the premise. It was whether you need to have played in the NHL to "know how to win". The answer is clearly no.

Even if you think I absolutely believed they would win, that would make us equally wrong on one occasion.

Technically you voted that they would win in even more convincing fashion than I did. Either way, hopefully the faulty premise behind your original comment has been illuminated.

The most recent year is by far the most important for players exiting their ELC.
Scoring rates absolutely matter.

The most recent season is important, but it's far from the only season that is important. Scoring levels may be considered, but it's far from the only context that matters, and it's important to do scoring level adjustments correctly. Contract valuation involves much more than cherry picking one other player's raw points, incorrectly adjusted and contextualized, in exclusively their final season.

 

[ToneDog]

Dubas rushed the rebuild. Couldn't help himself. He's been pissing away draft picks ever since. We once had such a great future. Then we signed Tavares.

Lou tried to sign Stammer the previous year. Dubas messed up the AAVs but the rebuild was over once they drafted Matty and he hit the road at full speed.

 

[Dreakmur]

It's not. You can speak on your opinions, but not other people's.

Your views are very clear from everything you’ve posted - Dubas is infallible.

Again, that's not even the premise. It was whether you need to have played in the NHL to "know how to win". The answer is clearly no.

That is the premise. It’s harder to understand something that you’ve never experienced. I realize it’s hard to you to admit anything that could be potentially negative towards Dubas, but it’s an undeniable fact.

Sure, it’s possible to learn through study, but there’s no substitute for real experience.

Technically you voted that they would win in even more convincing fashion than I did. Either way, hopefully the faulty premise behind your original comment has been illuminated.

If you think that a poll encompasses the entirety of our opinions, that’s on you.

The most recent season is important, but it's far from the only season that is important. Scoring levels may be considered, but it's far from the only context that matters, and it's important to do scoring level adjustments correctly. Contract valuation involves much more than cherry picking one other player's raw points, incorrectly adjusted and contextualized, in exclusively their final season.

The most recent season is by far the most significant season. For players ending their ELCs, it’s almost the only one worth looking at.

Since I’m sure you’re just combining other seasons and pretending they’re all equal, here’s some of that context thing is. The year prior, even though the point totals are 61 to 26, Pastrnak scored at a significantly higher rate at even strength. Pastrnak scored 25 es points in 687 minutes. Nylander scored 35 es points in 1105 minutes. Nylander’s totals were higher because he played more games and was given significant power play time.