Confirmed with Link: Shanahan, Dubas, Keefe all staying

[ToneDog]

Then lets not pretend were a Cup contender without a reliable goalie leading the way. Fans always falsely believe Leafs offense can outscore their defensive mistakes and goalie struggles.

Goaltending is Leafs weakest link, and Leafs usually have the 2nd best goalie in the series, so the end results are predictable for those that support the theory that "Good teams are built from the goalie out'.

Its not a surprise the reigning Conn Smythe playoff MVP winning goalie Vasilevskiy s battling the Vezina and Hart finalist Shesterkin in round #3 for the right to hoist the Cup. Perhaps the 2 best goalies in the world currently leading their teams onward and coming up big when it matters most.

"Defense wins Championships" and its your goalie that is captain of Team defense as the last line before the puck goes in your own net.

Until the Leafs start investing real cap money into a real goalie, Leafs will remain pretenders and not contenders,

First it was Andy and now it is Soup. next year it will be who ??

Soup outperformed his contract. You can change the goalie all you want, if your $40+m forwards can't get it done, you are going to lose no matter who is in net.

 

[mikeyz]

Exactly. The other teams play better in winner take all games. Every time.

Plus, Matthews and Marner never show up in those games.

 

[keonsbitterness]

Some are blaming the Refs now for the loss.

Ref-blaming during or right after a game or series I get. Ref-blaming a month later is the refuge of the weak.

Kucherov/Point/Stamkos: 6gls/16pts
Cirelli/Killorn/Palat: 4gls/10pts
Colton/Paul/Hagel: 6gls/13pts
Perry/Maroon/Bellemare: 4gls/4pts
Defense: 3gls/14pts

Matthews/Marner/Tavares: 9gls/23pts
Nylander/Bunting/Kerfoot: 5gls/12pts
Kampf/Mikheyev/Engvall: 4gls/9pts
Blackwell/Kase/Spezza: 1gls/6pts
Defesne: 5gls/15pts

Tampa - 4 wins
Toronto - 3 wins

Mike Johnson isn’t a very good hockey analyst.

True, because he's an excellent analyst.

I’m not advocating for the firing of Keefe, but I’m advocating for at least making sure he knows his job is not secure. I think as a management group you have to hold everyone in the organization to a high standard. Keefe has failed at the most important phase in the competition schedule 3 or 4 years in a row?

I think you have to at least EXPLORE the option of maybe replacing him if someone better can draw better results. That doesn’t mean that you should of course. But for them to come right out and give him a vote of confidence is crazy to me.

Worse than that, it was a 10-15 year vote of confidence.

Our opponent's goalies have certainly played better than our goalies in winner take all games.

Whether by design or by accident, this team was built with superior firepower. If that can't overcome the type of superior goaltending commonly seen in the playoffs, then how can they win?

 

[capfit9]

It's literal fact, and I'm not sure how you'd argue otherwise.

seems you deal with alternative facts

 

[Mess]

First it was Andy and now it is Soup. next year it will be who ??

Soup outperformed his contract. You can change the goalie all you want, if your $40+m forwards can't get it done, you are going to lose no matter who is in net.

$40 mil in 4 forwards is a flawed strategy to start.

Tampa Bay has it right ....

1) All-Star Conn Smythe MVP Goalie ($9.5 mil),& 2) Norris and Conn Smythe MVP Dman Hedman ($7.8 mil) + 3 X offensive forwards Kucherov, Stamkos and Point leading the offense as the next 3 cap usage players for $42 mil.
vs
Toronto where AM + JT + MM + WN = $40.5 mil

Leafs have their forwards covered for the same cap usage 1/2 cap, too bad were only missing the 2 most important pieces the All-World Goalie and the Norris Dman.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Until the Leafs start investing real cap money into a real goalie, Leafs will remain pretenders and not contenders,

Except the cap you spend on a goalie really doesn't say much about the quality of goaltending you're going to get, especially during that specific small sample. We invested real cap money for years and Andersen kept disappointing.

For the record, this is how much cap each final 4 team spent on their starting goalie this playoffs:

Edmonton: 2.2m
Colorado: 3.5m
New York: 5.6m
Tampa: 9.5m

Pretty big range. And arguably the best goalie performance in a series this playoffs was Oettinger, who makes less than Campbell. Arguably the worst series came from a 6m recent Vezina finalist.

 

[ToneDog]

$40 mil in 4 forwards is a flawed strategy to start.

Tampa Bay has it right ....

1) All-Star Conn Smythe MVP Goalie ($9.5 mil),& 2) Norris and Conn Smythe MVP Dman Hedman ($7.8 mil) + 3 X offensive forwards Kucherov, Stamkos and Point leading the offense as the next 3 cap usage players for $42 mil.
vs
Toronto where AM + JT + MM + WN = $40.5 mil

Leafs have their forwards covered for the same cap usage 1/2 cap, too bad were only missing the 2 most important pieces the All-World Goalie and the Norris Dman.

Rangers and Avs also have it right. Oilers do not and made a quick exit. Too bad Dubas/Shanny are too stubborn to admit it they are wrong. Too bad for the true fans that MLSEL is buying what the genius sold Shanny and it will take another first round exit for them to get it.

 

[Dekes For Days]

seems you deal with alternative facts

There's no such thing as "alternative facts". There's just facts, and the one you quoted is undeniable.

 

[Stephen]

We're a lot more similar to Tampa (or cup finalist Colorado, if you prefer) than people like to think, outside of Vasilevsky, and the main point was that that is who was referenced and what was meant by "outskilling your opponent", not whatever you seem to think it means. Nothing about what Dubas has done has been trying to "reinvent the wheel".

Feel free to elaborate on how close we are.

 

[Lightsol]

Rangers and Avs also have it right. Oilers do not and made a quick exit. Too bad Dubas/Shanny are too stubborn to admit it they are wrong. Too bad for the true fans that MLSEL is buying what the genius sold Shanny and it will take another first round exit for them to get it.

Wouldn't we look so much better if we'd follow Mess' strategy and picked Hanafin or Barzal over Marner in 2015? Or maybe skipped Matthews in favor of Juolevi or Sergachev?

 

[ToneDog]

Wouldn't we look so much better if we'd follow Mess' strategy and picked Hanafin or Barzal over Marner in 2015? Or maybe skipped Matthews in favor of Juolevi or Sergachev?

I don't recall anybody wanting to take anybody over Matty.

 

[francis246]

Except the cap you spend on a goalie really doesn't say much about the quality of goaltending you're going to get, especially during that specific small sample. We invested real cap money for years and Andersen kept disappointing.

For the record, this is how much cap each final 4 team spent on their starting goalie this playoffs:

Edmonton: 2.2m
Colorado: 3.5m
New York: 5.6m
Tampa: 9.5m

Pretty big range. And arguably the best goalie performance in a series this playoffs was Oettinger, who makes less than Campbell. Arguably the worst series came from a 6m recent Vezina finalist.

Don’t even bother I did a whole analysis on that and apparently mentioning that is a “simplistic” way of looking at things

 

[ACC1224]

Wouldn't we look so much better if we'd follow Mess' strategy and picked Hanafin or Barzal over Marner in 2015? Or maybe skipped Matthews in favor of Juolevi or Sergachev?

Bolded doesn't seem like a thing.

 

[Nineteen67]

I think people think it's an easier fix than it actually is.

It’s very hard. There’s not many above average goalies and when you build a team like Dubas et al have, you’d better have one if you want to have a chance a minimal success.

In order to become a legit Cup contender they’ll need to address the other problems they’ve created

Plus, Matthews and Marner never show up in those games.

They were a little better this year. Tampa invested in team D and negated the whole team because they are basically a one dimensional team.

 

[Lightsol]

I don't recall anybody wanting to take anybody over Matty.

No kdding, but Mess is CONSTANTLY screaming that the Leafs should have started with defense and goaltending. Which would mean skipping Nylander and Marner for what has turned out to be inferior options in order to position-draft.

I mean, let's analyze this logically. The D-man taken closest to Marner was Noah Hanafin, a guy a lot of people wanted. He hasn't even established himself as a #1 in the league yet, and there's a good chance he never does. So that would have turned out to be a waste of a #4th overall.

As for Nylander, the next D-man in that draft wouldnt' be taken for another 10 picks, and the only notable one taken in the first round that year was Trevor Sanheim (Okay, and Tony DeAngelo if you want to be pedantic, but considering it took him 5 teams to get his shit together). I doubt Sanheim was even on Toronto's radar that year, considering the difference between his ranking and where the Leafs drafted.

What is my point? That it's easy to say "start with D and goaltending", but you also need to get lucky that either the draft lines up that way or someone unexpected develops. The Leafs didn't end up in that situation, and trying to force it the way Mess insists would have led to them drafting inferior players (or reaching).

 

[francis246]

Wouldn't we look so much better if we'd follow Mess' strategy and picked Hanafin or Barzal over Marner in 2015? Or maybe skipped Matthews in favor of Juolevi or Sergachev?

I also think that this is where luck in pro sports is most prevalent. Tampa got lucky that they got the right guys 1 cornerstone forward, 1 premier defenseman and 1 world class goalie with their picks. Toronto got their picks right unfortunately they just happen to be forwards.

But I wouldn’t pick anyone else if we were to do it again. Toronto got their picks right. You could maybe argue Rantanen over Marner or Ehlers over Nylander. But it’s pretty even

 

[Nineteen67]

No kdding, but Mess is CONSTANTLY screaming that the Leafs should have started with defense and goaltending. Which would mean skipping Nylander and Marner for what has turned out to be inferior options in order to position-draft.

I mean, let's analyze this logically. The D-man taken closest to Marner was Noah Hanafin, a guy a lot of people wanted. He hasn't even established himself as a #1 in the league yet, and there's a good chance he never does. So that would have turned out to be a waste of a #4th overall.

As for Nylander, the next D-man in that draft wouldnt' be taken for another 10 picks, and the only notable one taken in the first round that year was Trevor Sanheim (Okay, and Tony DeAngelo if you want to be pedantic, but considering it took him 5 teams to get his shit together). I doubt Sanheim was even on Toronto's radar that year, considering the difference between his ranking and where the Leafs drafted.

What is my point? That it's easy to say "start with D and goaltending", but you also need to get lucky that either the draft lines up that way or someone unexpected develops. The Leafs didn't end up in that situation, and trying to force it the way Mess insists would have led to them drafting inferior players (or reaching).

Which begs the question: why did they signed Tavares that early in the rebuild?

 

[capfit9]

There's no such thing as "alternative facts". There's just facts, and the one you quoted is undeniable.

ok

 

[All Mod Cons]

It's literal fact, and I'm not sure how you'd argue otherwise.

I hope the irony of what you've just written wasn't lost on you.

 

[Lightsol]

Which begs the question: why did they signed Tavares that early in the rebuild?

Because after making the playoffs two years in a row, it was clear that we weren't going to be doing more rebuilding by tanking and so they saw an opportunity to add a game breaker for nothing but money and cap space?

Whether they signed Tavares or not, their picks wre going to be in the late teens/early 20's for the forseeable future,.

 

[killer1980]

Lest we forget that Dubas' stated pholosophy was always that we could outskate and otscore them. I will give him credit for recognizing those qualities. That has been exposed as a losing strategy. So, now he is being forced into a scenario that he is very uncomfortable with and, quite frankly, bad at. The team has not improved in the areas that it has to to compete in the playoffs, goaltending, defense, toughness, desire, and sacrifice (Simmonds really?). Most bosses have tunnel vision and cannot make the mental adjustments needed beyond their personal vision. So, is the case with Dubas. He should have been fired long ago.

 

[Stephen]

First it was Andy and now it is Soup. next year it will be who ??

Soup outperformed his contract. You can change the goalie all you want, if your $40+m forwards can't get it done, you are going to lose no matter who is in net.

The scary thing about the way Toronto is built to have success is the Leafs are winning some long bets like paying a $1.6 million journeyman to outduel Vasilevskiy. And it nearly worked. So the question is where does the upgrade come from when you already hit the jackpot but still lost in the first round?

 

[Racer88]

No, they don't. The "powerplay being the enforcer" is a really old saying and approach, and in Toronto, it was said by Babcock. "Outskilling opponents" is not a Dubas invention either. That's pretty much just what hockey is, and they have repeatedly pointed to back-to-back Cup champion Tampa as an example of what they mean. One of the biggest "outskill" teams in the league is currently in the cup finals. As for the cap allocation, that came from a once-in-a-lifetime global pandemic that stagnated the cap, not from a choice, and teams have operated and even won before with a high amount of cap allocated to their top players. None of these things are new.

Nothing about what Dubas has done has been trying to "reinvent the wheel".

He has 50% of his cap tied up in 4 similar forwards……….nobody else in the league has done that so I would say that qualifies as reinventing the wheel

I think people think it's an easier fix than it actually is.

It’s not easy but that doesn’t change the fact that other teams have better goaltending then we do. some of them drafted by said teams. We have bargain basement goalies and that’s what you get

 

[Racer88]

I also think that this is where luck in pro sports is most prevalent. Tampa got lucky that they got the right guys 1 cornerstone forward, 1 premier defenseman and 1 world class goalie with their picks. Toronto got their picks right unfortunately they just happen to be forwards.

But I wouldn’t pick anyone else if we were to do it again. Toronto got their picks right. You could maybe argue Rantanen over Marner or Ehlers over Nylander. But it’s pretty even

If the Leafs got their picks right but are forwards as you say why hasn’t Dubas turned at least 1 of them into a stud at goaltending or defence

Except the cap you spend on a goalie really doesn't say much about the quality of goaltending you're going to get, especially during that specific small sample. We invested real cap money for years and Andersen kept disappointing.

For the record, this is how much cap each final 4 team spent on their starting goalie this playoffs:

Edmonton: 2.2m
Colorado: 3.5m
New York: 5.6m
Tampa: 9.5m

Pretty big range. And arguably the best goalie performance in a series this playoffs was Oettinger, who makes less than Campbell. Arguably the worst series came from a 6m recent Vezina finalist.

If that is the case then the GM’s who acquired these stud reasonably priced goalies must be smart but it still begs the question as to why Dubas hasn’t addressed this issue

 

[Trapper]

This has to be a no lose year without a doubt.
For a management group to sit there and believe they just finished the year like Edmonton did is rather delusional.

Dubas has already bet his job several times and the statement we are close leaves only 1 possible way to go. Failure on any part should be the end. No excuses. No refs, no solar flares, nothing.