Confirmed with Link: Shanahan, Dubas, Keefe all staying

[myleafs]

There’s no evidence to suggest Toronto is remotely similar to Tampa in team construction. We don’t have a core of 6’3” plus defensemen from the number one to number 6, we don’t have a Hall of Fame level goalie, our bottom six construction is different. The best 4x forwards on Tampa Bay aren’t that similar to our 4x top forwards in play style, age. Tampa doesn’t outskill everyone else. They out-everything everyone.

This x1000

 

[Trapper]

Wouldn't we look so much better if we'd follow Mess' strategy and picked Hanafin or Barzal over Marner in 2015? Or maybe skipped Matthews in favor of Juolevi or Sergachev?

Or maybe you use Nylander to acquire that big piece on D for better balance.
The moment you signed Tavares, you had the Stamkos,Kucherov,Point and needed to spend the money on not another forward.

Don’t sign Tavares and use the money for D/depth.
Sign Tavares use the forward where you are lacking. D and G.

 

[Mess]

Or maybe you use Nylander to acquire that big piece on D for better balance.
The moment you signed Tavares, you had the Stamkos,Kucherov,Point and needed to spend the money on not another forward.

Don’t sign Tavares and use the money for D/depth.
Sign Tavares use the forward where you are lacking. D and G.

Using and applying logic comes easier for some.

If you wanted to go with strength down the middle as a building strategy and double down on #1C by adding JT, then you were re-allocating cap space and money once earmarked for Marner/Nylander ELC re-signing and should have dealt a winger for help on D or G.

Most fans thought it was an either/or proposition at the time with Nylander the most likely chip dealt away to address the defense. This was very much discussed at the time of the JT signing.

However "We can and We will" became the war cry from management, and Dubas spent 1/2 the entire teams salary cap on just 4 forwards including 3 X $11 mil players to prove himself right and now is learning the hard way on the job that its difficult building a winning team that can compete in the playoffs because he sacrificed not only team balance and structure throughout F, D and G positions, but you need to complete a roster on bargain bin shopping because you will cut all your middle solid depth Kadri, Hyman, Kapanen, AJ, Brown etc etc out in the process.

The results speak for themselves with now record setting 1st round losses for an organization, which pinpoints Salary Cap mismanagement, but always get pinned on your goalie, defense and depth players not coming through to carry all your high priced talent.

 

[Stephen]

Lest we forget that Dubas' stated pholosophy was always that we could outskate and otscore them. I will give him credit for recognizing those qualities. That has been exposed as a losing strategy. So, now he is being forced into a scenario that he is very uncomfortable with and, quite frankly, bad at. The team has not improved in the areas that it has to to compete in the playoffs, goaltending, defense, toughness, desire, and sacrifice (Simmonds really?). Most bosses have tunnel vision and cannot make the mental adjustments needed beyond their personal vision. So, is the case with Dubas. He should have been fired long ago.

From a team philosophy and design POV, it's interesting to actually see the Edmonton Oilers go to the WCF on the premise of outscoring and out-skilling opposition teams with a big forward group of McDavid, Draisaitl, Kane, Hyman and Nugent-Hopkins and just budget dreck everywhere else. When you see that brand of hockey in action, it's really not that appealing...

 

[usernamezrhardtodo]

I'm not the biggest Dubas fan but even I can rationalize that he made the Tavares signing under the Salary Cap projections all NHL teams had at that time. I don't know what people want Dubas to do. Go back in time and prevent Covid from happening? It's absolutely shitty that it happened but it's really dumb to assume he could have foreseen that, but before covid the new TNT/ESPN deal was supposed to boost the cap a lot. Prior to covid there was no reason to believe that the cap projections (that are given by the NHL) weren't going to come to fruition.

The only problem with the hypothesis that Dubas was screwed by the flat cap is that players seem to want a % of the cap when they negotiate. That means if I have a second liner that I am paying 10% of the cap ($8.1M) with a flat cap...I would be paying 10% of 91M ($9.1M)...so this thing about Dubas getting screwed by Covid and not his own negotiations doesn't fly that well.

Do you think you are getting Bunting on a $900K deal if the cap is 91M? It's a ripple effect...so having an $11M 2nd line center doesn't make sense no matter how you slice it.

 

[usernamezrhardtodo]

You are keep spinning.

This past series was different from the past few years actually it reminded me of our 2nd Series where the team seemed to be more prepare. You can't honestly sit here and state the team was as prepared as this past series as in Game 5-7 against the Habs or Game 4-5 against BJs. Results matters but just watched those games again and watch this past series and you could clearly see which Leafs team was more ready to play from the get go.
These preparation might not just be the Xs and Os from coaches, they could also be the mentality of the players.

I think comparing the Superbowl or football playoffs to the other BIG 3 playoffs are different in that football is a one off game while the other three are a series, where luck plays less of a factor.

Also, the unlucky part of getting TB or any other teams, this is the playoffs and the goal is to win the Cup and not a round. Winning the Cup means beating great teams, you cannot take comfort in, we made it tough for this great team....The boys need to beat these great teams and win the Cup.

The current Leafs is not a bad team and they could beat any teams in the playoffs, but the question is Can they do it? Would having someone like Trotz helps bc he led his team to TWO Conf Finals and a Cup the past few years, definitely.
Would getting someone like Marchand or Toews or Malkin help, I can't see why not since all three of them actually won a Cup and knows what it takes to win a Cup plus they can still play on a high level.

Look at the Leafs, and beside Muz and Hanisey, I really can't name anyone who won the Cup or played a major role in winning the Cup. Heck only JT, Muz and Willie were part of a team that won something for their Country.

The talents are there, their work ethic are there as this past playoffs had shown, the last part is their mentality. If a coaching change would help, I really don't see why not.

All the "Luck has nothing to do with it" people seem to flip flop a lot. Like you stated...a one-off game like NFL has much more luck involved than a series does. So if we consistently lose series...it can't be luck...and if it's not luck..what is it? Not being prepared? Not having a good leader? Having an imbalanced team make-up?

 

[Trapper]

Using and applying logic comes easier for some.

We’ve been saying don’t spend half the cap on 4 forwards since day 1. And still people defend it. I have some swamp for sale.

No matter what they say, how many paper stats and excuses it’s currently:

6 (Don’t do it)
to
0 (It’s fine)

 

[Gabriel426]

The only problem with the hypothesis that Dubas was screwed by the flat cap is that players seem to want a % of the cap when they negotiate. That means if I have a second liner that I am paying 10% of the cap ($8.1M) with a flat cap...I would be paying 10% of 91M ($9.1M)...so this thing about Dubas getting screwed by Covid and not his own negotiations doesn't fly that well.

Do you think you are getting Bunting on a $900K deal if the cap is 91M? It's a ripple effect...so having an $11M 2nd line center doesn't make sense no matter how you slice it.

I think Dubas didn't expect MM to ask for 10.893mil and Willie at 7mil. Dubas and pretty much the whole League knows AM's caphit will be between McD and Eichel.
These is all in hindsight.
I think Dubas thought Willie will be around 6-6.5mil range. As that dragged on till the last possible hour. Dubas didn't want it to happen to AM and MM, esp AM since the threat of an offer sheet is real.
Anyhow, it is all in the past and no point dragging on about Dubas should have done this or that with Player X's contract. Bc if thats the case, maybe we should blame Dubas and his scouts for not trading for Shesterkin when he was in the beginning of his development or drafting player X instead of current Marlies....

 

[usernamezrhardtodo]

I think Dubas didn't expect MM to ask for 10.893mil and Willie at 7mil. Dubas and pretty much the whole League knows AM's caphit will be between McD and Eichel.
These is all in hindsight.
I think Dubas thought Willie will be around 6-6.5mil range. As that dragged on till the last possible hour. Dubas didn't want it to happen to AM and MM, esp AM since the threat of an offer sheet is real.
Anyhow, it is all in the past and no point dragging on about Dubas should have done this or that with Player X's contract. Bc if thats the case, maybe we should blame Dubas and his scouts for not trading for Shesterkin when he was in the beginning of his development or drafting player X instead of current Marlies....

You don't think that giving JT $11M had anything to do with the young guns asking for the moon? How could it not. I do know that If we kept Lou just until all the deals were done with the kids and THEN handed the reigns off to Dubas we would be in a much better spot. I didn't like a lot of stuff that Lou did..but I guarantee you they would not have signed those deals had he been around.

 

[BackPassChampions]

Maybe you're both over thinking some basic comments to the media? Feels like both coaches were just trying to manage the mentality of their teams, I wouldn't read any more in to it

I'm not sure how you perceived that as overthinking?

What I stated was a fact. At the end of the day, I'm not hung up on the comment. Results and outputs on the ice is more of a focus here.

 

[Mess]

From a team philosophy and design POV, it's interesting to actually see the Edmonton Oilers go to the WCF on the premise of outscoring and out-skilling opposition teams with a big forward group of McDavid, Draisaitl, Kane, Hyman and Nugent-Hopkins and just budget dreck everywhere else. When you see that brand of hockey in action, it's really not that appealing...

That is your Toronto Maple Leaf build comparable, not the dynasty building structure of the potentially 3 time consecutive TB Cup champs.

Its the difference between a pretender and true contender team build strategy that starts with an all-world goalie and builds from that position forward through strength on defense.

Edmonton's strategy worked in the 1980's to outscore your mistakes but then when you have Gretzky and Messier its a lot easier.

 

[Gabriel426]

All the "Luck has nothing to do with it" people seem to flip flop a lot. Like you stated...a one-off game like NFL has much more luck involved than a series does. So if we consistently lose series...it can't be luck...and if it's not luck..what is it? Not being prepared? Not having a good leader? Having an imbalanced team make-up?

1. I think you need to be good to be lucky. Being good means you are in a position to take advantage of such luck.
2. From eye tests, they were more prepared than they were over the past two seasons. Just look at the way they start the games in this series and compare that to against the Habs and BJs.
3. JT is not a leader. He is not vocal and demand enough to be a leader. Keefe is also not a good leader. I like that he defends his players but he made bad decisions at the most critical times. It goes back to dressing AJ in Game 5 against BJs where AJ didn't play for months. OR playing Sandin against the Habs after leading the Series 3-1 and just demolished them the game before. Which leads to the following point.
4. Keefe still have not figure out how to implement AM, Willie, JT and MM to maximize the chances of winning.
This could be b/c they want to please AM and MM in order for him to boast up his stats but to me, Winning the Cup matters. During PP, they pass way too much, is it bc they are waiting and setting AM as the trigger man or just looking for the perfect shot. You look at TB, when Point, Kuch, Stamkos or Hedman see a chance, they just shoot. Lets not kid ourselves, those four are staying and if they are staying Keefe still have not find a way to spread them out and see what they can do. Spread them out, and stick with it for more than a game or two.
We see that we need balance scoring and since we can't sign quality mid 6 forwards due to the cap, spread the guys out and let them carry the others instead of always playing them together.

You don't think that giving JT $11M had anything to do with the young guns asking for the moon? How could it not. I do know that If we kept Lou just until all the deals were done with the kids and THEN handed the reigns off to Dubas we would be in a much better spot. I didn't like a lot of stuff that Lou did..but I guarantee you they would not have signed those deals had he been around.

Honestly, they can ask for it but it doesn't mean Dubas needs to give in. Like I said, AM's caphit will be between Eichel and McD even if Lou is still around.
Lou will eventually sign Willie instead of trading him away b/c I think Willie's camp will bend at the end due to the diff being around 0.5mil.
Lou handling MM's contract would be interesting.

 

[usernamezrhardtodo]

1. I think you need to be good to be lucky. Being good means you are in a position to take advantage of such luck.
2. From eye tests, they were more prepared than they were over the past two seasons. Just look at the way they start the games in this series and compare that to against the Habs and BJs.
3. JT is not a leader. He is not vocal and demand enough to be a leader. Keefe is also not a good leader. I like that he defends his players but he made bad decisions at the most critical times. It goes back to dressing AJ in Game 5 against BJs where AJ didn't play for months. OR playing Sandin against the Habs after leading the Series 3-1 and just demolished them the game before. Which leads to the following point.
4. Keefe still have not figure out how to implement AM, Willie, JT and MM to maximize the chances of winning.
This could be b/c they want to please AM and MM in order for him to boast up his stats but to me, Winning the Cup matters. During PP, they pass way too much, is it bc they are waiting and setting AM as the trigger man or just looking for the perfect shot. You look at TB, when Point, Kuch, Stamkos or Hedman see a chance, they just shoot. Lets not kid ourselves, those four are staying and if they are staying Keefe still have not find a way to spread them out and see what they can do. Spread them out, and stick with it for more than a game or two.
We see that we need balance scoring and since we can't sign quality mid 6 forwards due to the cap, spread the guys out and let them carry the others instead of always playing them together.


Honestly, they can ask for it but it doesn't mean Dubas needs to give in. Like I said, AM's caphit will be between Eichel and McD even if Lou is still around.
Lou will eventually sign Willie instead of trading him away b/c I think Willie's camp will bend at the end due to the diff being around 0.5mil.
Lou handling MM's contract would be interesting.

I agree with your points. I might add something though....I think this team and especially it's core is mentally scarred. They literally think something will go wrong when it looks like things are going our way and it usually does. We need an older veteran who is a good leader to grab them and pull them into the fight. It has to be someone from outside the organization that isn't tainted by the losses we have so far.

If you can't get that player...then get a coach who gives off the same level of confidence. I would pick Trotz because he did it with a similar team in Washington that just couldn't slay the dragon until he got there. The only way this team will win without getting outside help is if everyone literally gives up on them and doesn't expect/hope they will win. When the pressure is off...they just might pull it off...BUT...we live in a huge media market that will pump their tires no matter how little fans expect of them, so that is not likely to happen anytime soon.

It's pretty simple at this point now. It's mental more than anything and I don't know a player you could airlift in to help...but I do know a good coach in Trotz would make a difference.

 

[Gabriel426]

I agree with your points. I might add something though....I think this team and especially it's core is mentally scarred. They literally think something will go wrong when it looks like things are going our way and it usually does. We need an older veteran who is a good leader to grab them and pull them into the fight. It has to be someone from outside the organization that isn't tainted by the losses we have so far.

If you can't get that player...then get a coach who gives off the same level of confidence. I would pick Trotz because he did it with a similar team in Washington that just couldn't slay the dragon until he got there. The only way this team will win without getting outside help is if everyone literally gives up on them and doesn't expect/hope they will win. When the pressure is off...they just might pull it off...BUT...we live in a huge media market that will pump their tires no matter how little fans expect of them, so that is not likely to happen anytime soon.

It's pretty simple at this point now. It's mental more than anything and I don't know a player you could airlift in to help...but I do know a good coach in Trotz would make a difference.

I agree. I really think it is mental at this point. Agree with Trotz and I think bringing in vets with Champion DNA or Cup winners won't help much unless it is Toews, Marchand, Berge, Sid or even Malkin. That vet needs to be someone who can still dominate games and be a huge presence in the dressing room. That it is a business and not a joke like Jumbo. I just don't think Dubas can get that type of vet to come in.
To me, Trotz is the guy that Dubas needs to look at and see if there is a fit. If I am Shanny I would even go over Dubas's head and hire Trotz.

As for pressure being off. The moment that the Leafs hits 3 wins in the series, the pressure will be on again.

 

[francis246]

The only problem with the hypothesis that Dubas was screwed by the flat cap is that players seem to want a % of the cap when they negotiate. That means if I have a second liner that I am paying 10% of the cap ($8.1M) with a flat cap...I would be paying 10% of 91M ($9.1M)...so this thing about Dubas getting screwed by Covid and not his own negotiations doesn't fly that well.

Do you think you are getting Bunting on a $900K deal if the cap is 91M? It's a ripple effect...so having an $11M 2nd line center doesn't make sense no matter how you slice it.

There is no way leafs brass imagined the post ELC’s would end up being as expensive as they were. That is why I’ve said it a thousand times, I’d you ask leafs management if they regret the Tavares contract it would be a straight no. I think they sign Tavares over again if they have a do over. Because he was the best UFA available in the cap era and they got him. Also Matthews was topping out at 60 something points. Tavares was a better player. So I think they were thinking Matthews would eventually become the #1 C in years 3 or 4 of the Tavares deal but not as early as he did. (Essentially the next season).

I think what they truly regret is the ELC’s, they overpaid Marner and they over paid Nylander. I think Dubas is probably wishing he did 2 or 3 year bridge deals for those two, got to keep Brown, Kapanen and Johansson. Or they could have made better hockey deal for one of those guys if they could upgrade. You might have a better team or you could have had the same result.

 

[francis246]

You don't think that giving JT $11M had anything to do with the young guns asking for the moon? How could it not. I do know that If we kept Lou just until all the deals were done with the kids and THEN handed the reigns off to Dubas we would be in a much better spot. I didn't like a lot of stuff that Lou did..but I guarantee you they would not have signed those deals had he been around.

It doesn’t matter if it did. The leafs had full control. Just because you ask for something it doesn’t mean you have to say yes. This was Dubas’ biggest mistake. He felt like he had to sign them but he should have made them sweat it out.

 

[Gallagbi]

I'm not sure how you perceived that as overthinking?

What I stated was a fact. At the end of the day, I'm not hung up on the comment. Results and outputs on the ice is more of a focus here.

Your opinion is not fact

 

[Dreakmur]

There is no way leafs brass imagined the post ELC’s would end up being as expensive as they were. That is why I’ve said it a thousand times, I’d you ask leafs management if they regret the Tavares contract it would be a straight no. I think they sign Tavares over again if they have a do over. Because he was the best UFA available in the cap era and they got him. Also Matthews was topping out at 60 something points. Tavares was a better player. So I think they were thinking Matthews would eventually become the #1 C in years 3 or 4 of the Tavares deal but not as early as he did. (Essentially the next season).

I think what they truly regret is the ELC’s, they overpaid Marner and they over paid Nylander. I think Dubas is probably wishing he did 2 or 3 year bridge deals for those two, got to keep Brown, Kapanen and Johansson. Or they could have made better hockey deal for one of those guys if they could upgrade. You might have a better team or you could have had the same result.

They certainly would say they don't regret the Tavares signing, but if they actually believe it they should be fired.

 

[Racer88]

An ironic thing about this goaltending discussion over the past few pages is that Tampa gave up more goals against during the series than the Leafs.....

It’s not always how many goals you give up but sometimes when you give them up

 

[francis246]

They certainly would say they don't regret the Tavares signing, but if they actually believe it they should be fired.

Again I disagree respectfully. The Tavares contract coming from a UFA standpoint isn’t that bad. Is it the right fit for our team in hindsight? Maybe maybe not. But the team has had a ton of regular season success with him on the roster. I’m not sure this team is necessarily better without him, given the high possibility the team still moves on from Kadri bc of his suspensions. Then what is the Center depth looking like?

Yes they haven’t had playoff success but you can’t singularly blame that on the Tavares contract. That has to do with a combination of different factors

 

[Stephen]

You know what's funny?

John Cooper the entire series was talking about how Tampa gave us freebies. That to me is indictive of how little respect he and the team have for us.

Jon Cooper's main focus would typically be to put agency in his team to play better. I find the only times your team is going to get credit is when you've been knocked out and the other team is being gracious, or you've beaten the doors off them. Typically that kind of external validation isn't worth much.

 

[ShaneFalco]

Yes because why would you keep options open when you have such an amazing track record

 

[hamzarocks]

There is no way leafs brass imagined the post ELC’s would end up being as expensive as they were. That is why I’ve said it a thousand times, I’d you ask leafs management if they regret the Tavares contract it would be a straight no. I think they sign Tavares over again if they have a do over. Because he was the best UFA available in the cap era and they got him. Also Matthews was topping out at 60 something points. Tavares was a better player. So I think they were thinking Matthews would eventually become the #1 C in years 3 or 4 of the Tavares deal but not as early as he did. (Essentially the next season).

I think what they truly regret is the ELC’s, they overpaid Marner and they over paid Nylander. I think Dubas is probably wishing he did 2 or 3 year bridge deals for those two, got to keep Brown, Kapanen and Johansson. Or they could have made better hockey deal for one of those guys if they could upgrade. You might have a better team or you could have had the same result.

Matthews was a better player than JT from the moment he entered the NHL or at the worst since his sophomore year

Matthews had 69 in 82 and then 63 in 62, while JT had 66 in 77 and 84 in 82. Very similar production.

Matthews was an elite 1C as a 19 or 20-year-old at the latest.

We never had the intention of JT being the 1C or guy. It was always going to be Matthews. The belief was JT could be like Malkin where he drove the 2nd line and put up great stats while giving us the option to have an elite 1C step up in case Matthews gets hurt.

He was that in 18-19 (90 point center basically while being solid in his own zone) however he hasn't been that level since.

 

[Menzinger]

It’s not always how many goals you give up but sometimes when you give them up

But no goalie is going to be guaranteed to not give up goals at certain times, regardless of how much they earn.

Vasi gave up the tying goal in game 7 - but was fortunate that the refs ended up calling it back.

 

[keonsbitterness]

Jon Cooper's main focus would typically be to put agency in his team to play better. I find the only times your team is going to get credit is when you've been knocked out and the other team is being gracious, or you've beaten the doors off them. Typically that kind of external validation isn't worth much.

Cooper's psychological game is among the best in the league. He pissed off half this forum during the series.