Confirmed with Link: Shanahan, Dubas, Keefe all staying

[Stephen]

You bring up an interesting point in decision science. Prior vs. posterior belief.

Simple problem: You have a coin. Prior belief is that it is a fair coin and therefore you should have a 50/50 chance of winning independent of any prior result.

Then when you start flipping the coin, you get heads 5 times in a row. Based on the prior belief, the chances of that happening are (1/2)^5, or 3.125%. It is not zero, obviously, but then you really start questioning whether it is actually a fair coin. Maybe you start believing it is actually 60/40 towards heads, simply because it is very unlikely for 5 straight heads to occur with a fair coin. However if you flip the coin 1000 times, and the coin is, in fact, fair, you will see that there will almost certainly be some instance of 5 straight heads (or tails) over those 1000 trials but in the end, it will be approximately equal between heads and tails.

Why does any of this matter in hockey? Right now, it is statistically unlikely that the Leafs should have lost this often based on expectation. Which bares the question: Is our team just not good as expected or are they just really unlucky? The answer right now could be either. Maybe we are just in that stage of 5 straight heads on a fair coin, or maybe the coin is not as fair as we thought.

In reality, we were not as good as expected at the beginning. We had Lou and Babcock, two legends, in charge and a group of young stud talent and we hoped they would take us to the promise land right away like they had done in the past. In reality, there was a lot of pain, those two probably didn't do as good of a job as we would have expected/hoped, and especially in the case of Babcock, there was little hope/trust that things would get better with time or more iterations. Then with Dubas/Keefe, there has been progression in terms of expectations because this team has shown what it is capable of doing. Matthews is a 60 goal scorer. Marner has blossomed into a triple-digit player. We are significantly better defensively. We have a more well-rounded team that has challenged or looked better than many teams that, in terms of results, have been better than us. So those in charge and those making decisions are leaning towards a stretch of bad luck, or just one of those mental hurdles that needs to be climbed and they are confident will be climbed, before the flood gates open and this team can meet or exceed the lofty expectations that they, and Leafs fans, have for them. And that for now, the fact that this is a team that still is put into situations where we should be succeeding, and should be performing well, is about the best they can hope for. It is time for those who truly make the difference, which are the players (and especially the core players who have been given a ton of trust), to finally step up and exceed analytical expectation (although meeting analytical expectation through execution would be a good start and would get us far on its own) to win a Cup.

For me, the problem with the coin flip and probability model is it’s an intellectually shallow concept that’s really of misapplied to winning in the playoffs.

Even if your odds are always 50/50, which is a dubious premise, even if you are unlucky, a player, coach or GM doesn’t have 1,000 cracks at it for those odds to even out over a massive sample. We don’t live in a simulation. There are no repeat chances. Life is not a rehearsal.

It was sad to hear Jason Spezza talk about the regret he had in the game. He had a very long career to win a cup. And I would count him as one of the luckier ones because not a lot of people get 20 years to try and win. It would be important for me to see the organization really embrace what a rare chance it is to truly contend and really stop talking about bad luck, probability and expected success this and that. Something else needs to click in and not this concept of inevitability.

 

[BackPassChampions]

I don't need to our idiot coach told us that the game 4 blow out was acceptable because we got the split in the post game press conference.

It's ok though we went on to recover from that thought process to go all the way to game 7 and get respect in the handshake line

You know what's funny?

John Cooper the entire series was talking about how Tampa gave us freebies. That to me is indictive of how little respect he and the team have for us.

 

[mikeyz]

I don't need to our idiot coach told us that the game 4 blow out was acceptable because we got the split in the post game press conference.

It's ok though we went on to recover from that thought process to go all the way to game 7 and get respect in the handshake line

HEY!! Don’t underestimate how important it is to get the respect in the handshake line!!!!

 

[ShaneFalco]

You know what's funny?

John Cooper the entire series was talking about how Tampa gave us freebies. That to me is indictive of how little respect he and the team have for us.

This exactly

 

[usernamezrhardtodo]

For me, the problem with the coin flip and probability model is it’s an intellectually shallow concept that’s really of misapplied to winning in the playoffs.

Even if your odds are always 50/50, which is a dubious premise, even if you are unlucky, a player, coach or GM doesn’t have 1,000 cracks at it for those odds to even out over a massive sample. We don’t live in a simulation. There are no repeat chances. Life is not a rehearsal.

It was sad to hear Jason Spezza talk about the regret he had in the game. He had a very long career to win a cup. And I would count him as one of the luckier ones because not a lot of people get 20 years to try and win. It would be important for me to see the organization really embrace what a rare chance it is to truly contend and really stop talking about bad luck, probability and expected success this and that. Something else needs to click in and not this concept of inevitability.

That's what I was trying to say...what I bolded out of your post. It seems like MLSE just thinks it will happen because it is inevitable and it will. This is why we keep scratching our heads with this team. They just expect to happen because it did for detroit and washington and st.louis etc....no need to do anything drastic....it will happen just because...

I keep bringing up SJ and Ottawa along with Vancouver to counter those teams. It goes both ways...

 

[egd27]

And how do we know the Leafs can't rally after getting past the first round?

We don't.

However, we know that the winner takes all game has the most pressure within a single series. We also know that the pressure intensifies as the playoffs go on.

0-5 in game 7's (1 game 5)

 

[leafsfan5]

We don’t win because this core is unable to adapt and ramp it up when the scope of the playoffs change. They play the same all-star regular season game.

Tampa was able to lock it down when the situation called for it. They lost Point in game 7 but collectively changed the game.

Montreal was seriously outgunned but managed to go into a grind it out mode we couldn’t adapt.

Colorado lost Kadri and their starting goaltender but adapted to be in the finals.

Sum of the parts. There is no 2nd gear. We have proven to lose under all those adverse situations.

This isn't even disputable. The Leafs statistically get worse as a series goes on and the other team takes over

You know what's funny?

John Cooper the entire series was talking about how Tampa gave us freebies. That to me is indictive of how little respect he and the team have for us.

But Keefe said they respected us a lot!

 

[egd27]

Nothing indicates that we are less prepared than the teams we face.

An argument could be made that the slow starts in some important games indicates that we are.

 

[mikeyz]

We don’t win because this core is unable to adapt and ramp it up when the scope of the playoffs change. They play the same all-star regular season game.

Tampa was able to lock it down when the situation called for it. They lost Point in game 7 but collectively changed the game.

Montreal was seriously outgunned but managed to go into a grind it out mode we couldn’t adapt.

Colorado lost Kadri and their starting goaltender but adapted to be in the finals.

Sum of the parts. There is no 2nd gear. We have proven to lose under all those adverse situations.

/Thread

 

[hotpaws]

This isn't even disputable. The Leafs statistically get worse as a series goes on and the other team takes over


But Keefe said they respected us a lot!

isn't respect accompanied with the 2 handed handshake much more satisfying than actually winning ? i believe it is

 

[Coffee]

Fire Keefe and sign Cassidy. Or is Toronto too WUSSY, huh??

 

[leafsfan5]

Fire Keefe and sign Cassidy. Or is Toronto too WUSSY, huh??

A lot of this board would be in favour of that I think

Cassidy would be an excellent option here. His defensive system + special teams prowess combined with our offensive talent is a great duo

 

[Leaf Fans]

isn't respect accompanied with the 2 handed handshake much more satisfying than actually winning ? i believe it is

Keefe doesn't.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

For me, the problem with the coin flip and probability model is it’s an intellectually shallow concept that’s really of misapplied to winning in the playoffs.

Even if your odds are always 50/50, which is a dubious premise, even if you are unlucky, a player, coach or GM doesn’t have 1,000 cracks at it for those odds to even out over a massive sample. We don’t live in a simulation. There are no repeat chances. Life is not a rehearsal.

It was sad to hear Jason Spezza talk about the regret he had in the game. He had a very long career to win a cup. And I would count him as one of the luckier ones because not a lot of people get 20 years to try and win. It would be important for me to see the organization really embrace what a rare chance it is to truly contend and really stop talking about bad luck, probability and expected success this and that. Something else needs to click in and not this concept of inevitability.

No, you don't have 1,000 cracks at it. But "something needs to click" is not an answer either. If you told any GM or player or coach in this league that the solution is that "something needs to click", they'd laugh at you. And that does not mean it is the wrong idea either, but it is worthless information.

The best they can do is put themselves in the best position to win. The Leafs have done a better job than most teams in that regard. If it doesn't get done, then it doesn't get done... And more than likely, the players will be the ones with the greatest regrets (and responsibility for failure) if nothing changes.

I would rather live with losing because we had bad luck or failed to meet expectations than losing because we were legitimately a bad team or made bad decisions which put us in a worse position to win, which applies to the vast majority of suggestions and proposals thrown around on the internet.

So unless you can do suggest something tangible which can guarantee success, which I can guarantee you can't because nothing can guarantee success, then I am good with continuing to build a team that is expected to be successful and counting on them actually meeting that success. After all, the players need to hold up their end of the bargain; something they have failed to do to this point.

 

[Stephen]

No, you don't have 1,000 cracks at it. But "something needs to click" is not an answer either. If you told any GM or player or coach in this league that the solution is that "something needs to click", they'd laugh at you. And that does not mean it is the wrong idea either, but it is worthless information.

The best they can do is put themselves in the best position to win. The Leafs have done a better job than most teams in that regard. If it doesn't get done, then it doesn't get done... And more than likely, the players will be the ones with the greatest regrets (and responsibility for failure) if nothing changes.

I would rather live with losing because we had bad luck or failed to meet expectations than losing because we were legitimately a bad team or made bad decisions which put us in a worse position to win, which applies to the vast majority of suggestions and proposals thrown around on the internet.

So unless you can do suggest something tangible which can guarantee success, which I can guarantee you can't because nothing can guarantee success, then I am good with continuing to build a team that is expected to be successful and counting on them actually meeting that success. After all, the players need to hold up their end of the bargain; something they have failed to do to this point.

My opinion is the Leafs brass likes to give off the vibe of a data driven tech company but vitally misses the mark on a lot of conventional roster and organizational construction items which we talk about ad nauseum on here. They can’t quantify what it is so they fall back on probability and luck. And luck isn’t a satisfying answer either if you’re really trying to explain to your boss.

Anyway, just watching late round playoff games and our answers are right there. Attack in straight lines, drive to heavy traffic, start games on time, finish off opponents when they’re wobbling, understand the attrition game physically, mix and match possession and dump and chase, minimize reversals, build bigger on the blueline and have strength in goal. Build a more robust team that has different ways to win playoff games. You don’t need to quantify these concepts.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

My opinion is the Leafs brass likes to give off the vibe of a data driven tech company but vitally misses the mark on a lot of conventional roster and organizational construction items which we talk about ad nauseum on here. They can’t quantify what it is so they fall back on probability and luck. And luck isn’t a satisfying answer either if you’re really trying to explain to your boss.

Anyway, just watching late round playoff games and our answers are right there. Attack in straight lines, drive to heavy traffic, start games on time, finish off opponents when they’re wobbling, understand the attrition game physically, mix and match possession and dump and chase, minimize reversals, build bigger on the blueline and have strength in goal. Build a more robust team that has different ways to win playoff games. You don’t need to quantify these concepts.

If you are getting that vibe, then you don't know data-driven tech companies very well. Compared to those companies, the Leafs (and most NHL teams) are like a person who thinks knowing Excel and VBA is coding.

Even those companies do not use data the way that most people on here think data is used. All I will say, is that "using numbers on spreadsheets" =/= analytics or data. That would be on the same level as saying we should get a guy because he is 6'5".

As for the rest, the things they can worry about out of that list of stuff you mentioned, is stuff they can quantify. There are a lot of decisions which can be, and are, "driven by data" (or at least incorporate it in some important way) that are far beyond most fans can even begin to comprehend and would be surprised at how few truly subjective decisions are made by teams these days. The ways that data is used is far different than people think it is used, and the Leafs specifically are a team that has the resources to use data a lot better than they probably are right now.

 

[ACC1224]

No, you don't have 1,000 cracks at it. But "something needs to click" is not an answer either. If you told any GM or player or coach in this league that the solution is that "something needs to click", they'd laugh at you. And that does not mean it is the wrong idea either, but it is worthless information.

The best they can do is put themselves in the best position to win. The Leafs have done a better job than most teams in that regard. If it doesn't get done, then it doesn't get done... And more than likely, the players will be the ones with the greatest regrets (and responsibility for failure) if nothing changes.

I would rather live with losing because we had bad luck or failed to meet expectations than losing because we were legitimately a bad team or made bad decisions which put us in a worse position to win, which applies to the vast majority of suggestions and proposals thrown around on the internet.

So unless you can do suggest something tangible which can guarantee success, which I can guarantee you can't because nothing can guarantee success, then I am good with continuing to build a team that is expected to be successful and counting on them actually meeting that success. After all, the players need to hold up their end of the bargain; something they have failed to do to this point.

They don’t put themselves in ‘the best position to win’ that’s what many are saying. You believe they have which is fine but that doesn’t mean it’s correct.

 

[francis246]

They don’t put themselves in ‘the best position to win’ that’s what many are saying. You believe they have which is fine but that doesn’t mean it’s correct.

Exactly, I think they tried to this past summer with some of the signings but they missed the mark on a few. I honestly think Dubas is really going to have to get out of his comfort zone and add size and skill. Andrew Copp would be my #1 target, then push the youth up the line up. Sandin, Liljegren, Robertson and Steeves should all be regulars next year. Let’s get faster, younger and more skilled. There’s no reason why the leafs can’t build a similar team to Colorado. But our bottom six needs to be revamped. Our top end talent is good, but our bottom 6 is soft, don’t forecheck effective enough and they don’t cause enough shit.

 

[TML Dynasty]

I agree with the premise that Dubas has assembled a great team and its the Leaf players themselves need to step up. To me we need a coach that can bring that out the best in them.

But it wasnt Babs, it doesnt look like its Keefe, if its not the next guy.....and that better be a proven name......then Im at a loss and will jump on the blow it up bandwagon.

 

[Gallagbi]

You know what's funny?

John Cooper the entire series was talking about how Tampa gave us freebies. That to me is indictive of how little respect he and the team have for us.

Maybe you're both over thinking some basic comments to the media? Feels like both coaches were just trying to manage the mentality of their teams, I wouldn't read any more in to it

 

[Dekes For Days]

An argument could be made that the slow starts in some important games indicates that we are.

Not only does that not indicate a lack of preparedness, but for the record, in the 7 game series with Tampa, we outshot them 3 times in the 1st period, they outshot us 3 times in the 1st period, and we tied 1 time in the 1st period.

 

[Stephen]

If you are getting that vibe, then you don't know data-driven tech companies very well. Compared to those companies, the Leafs (and most NHL teams) are like a person who thinks knowing Excel and VBA is coding.

Even those companies do not use data the way that most people on here think data is used. All I will say, is that "using numbers on spreadsheets" =/= analytics or data. That would be on the same level as saying we should get a guy because he is 6'5".

As for the rest, the things they can worry about out of that list of stuff you mentioned, is stuff they can quantify. There are a lot of decisions which can be, and are, "driven by data" (or at least incorporate it in some important way) that are far beyond most fans can even begin to comprehend and would be surprised at how few truly subjective decisions are made by teams these days. The ways that data is used is far different than people think it is used, and the Leafs specifically are a team that has the resources to use data a lot better than they probably are right now.

No, I mean they try to talk the talk and act like an industry disrupter. Not what they do with actual data.

A team that lets Kerfoot ice dance like that at center ice is clearly missing something in the conventional hockey wisdom department.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Your view is the same as Dubas...it's all random and there is almost nothing you can do to increase your odds with luck. I think the opposite. I have been "lucky" in my business career a couple of times where it felt like lightning in a bottle the first time....the second time it happened I started to look a bit more in depth and found it was a confluence of factors that resulted in my "Luck" happening...two of the most important reasons were preparation and opportunity .

It's not "all random", and you can certainly increase your chance of winning, and you can increase your preparation and give yourself more opportunities, but you cannot increase luck. That's, by definition, impossible.

A person who gets lucky will prepare and put themselves in good positions beforehand, and so when they get lucky, they think that the luck was a result of putting themselves in that good position, being prepared, creating opportunities, etc. However, those people forget that just as many people who do the exact same things you did, will not get lucky.

That's what luck is. It's not the preparation and the putting yourselves in good positions. It's the differing outcomes that still come from that.

If we took two teams that were exactly equally prepared and put themselves in the exact same great position, and gave themselves the exact same great opportunities, etc., and we pit them against each other in a playoff series, who wins and why?

How does that translate to hockey? Well, Nick Paul was a pretty meh trade to most of us...but TB saw something in him that led them to think he could be a difference maker and lo and behold...he was.

They saw a decent player who could fill a role, like any other team with their players. They had no idea that he would score 2 goals in a game 7 they barely even got to. He has 7 points in 15 games, so he's not exactly busting the door down. And they spent a goldmine on Hagel, who has been pretty disappointing for them, so where was this magical machine that showed them the future with Paul when Hagel was being acquired? What if the refs aren't braindead and they don't hand them game 6, or the puck bounces around and one of the 9 OT shots we got went in, and they never get to game 7 for Paul to score 2 goals? How does the Paul acquisition look then? What if the refs aren't braindead again in game 7, and the game is tied and we win in OT? Both teams would have done the same everything that they did, but the outcome would be different.

 

[Dekes For Days]

No, I mean they try to talk the talk and act like an industry disrupter.

I'm not sure where this idea that they're an "industry disruptor" came from, but they certainly don't talk and act like that, and we don't do things nearly as differently as some people seem to think.

 

[Nineteen67]

The Leafs are unlucky to have a few players that can’t or won’t put in the necessary effort to win a round, let alone a Cup. They’re also unlucky to have cap problems that have hindered their ability to build a more competitive team.

Tampa, on the other hand, is lucky enough to have guys that are committed to winning and they built a solid roster that can be retooled after a Cup championships.