OT: Severe Weather Discussion III

[CupHolders]

my avatar

What is it from? Always reminds me of Sandeman Port Wine… but I know it’s not.

 

[The Real JT]

What is it from? Always reminds me of Sandeman Port Wine… but I know it’s not.

Perhaps @Bones45 is an SCTV fan?

Maybe he’s even the one and only Guy Caballero?

 

[TeamKidd]

What is it from? Always reminds me of Sandeman Port Wine… but I know it’s not.

 

[Bunk Moreland]

I'm hoping for some snow so I'm going with the "reverse psychology" method. I didn't expect anyone to take that comment seriously

Classic reverse jinx I like it

 

[Bones45]

What is it from? Always reminds me of Sandeman Port Wine… but I know it’s not.

Perhaps @Bones45 is an SCTV fan?

Maybe he’s even the one and only Guy Caballero?

View attachment 502426

All solid guesses, although none correct. And I do love me some Walter White

"If that's true, and you don't know who you're talking to, my advise to you would be to.. tread lightly"

 

[crasherino]

I see about 12 new messages in this thread and I get my hopes up that there'll be some real updates about the impending snow apocalypse (or dribble).

Nope. Just you jive turkeys talking about sarcasm emojis. A disappointment development on many levels.

 

[TeamKidd]

I see about 12 new messages in this thread and I get my hopes up that there'll be some real updates about the impending snow apocalypse (or dribble).

Nope. Just you jive turkeys talking about sarcasm emojis. A disappointment development on many levels.

we're stalling....

 

[TeamKidd]

oh BTW i know there were a few that asked about the Delmarva and I may have undersold the possibilities there, there is a brief window for some decent accumulating snows, especially in coastal areas

 

[CupHolders]

I see about 12 new messages in this thread and I get my hopes up that there'll be some real updates about the impending snow apocalypse (or dribble).

Nope. Just you jive turkeys talking about sarcasm emojis. A disappointment development on many levels.

I’m getting inspiration for my Snow Storm drink options. Liquor and bread… snow storm survival 101.

Oh yeah can’t forget…

 

[NYI365]

f***ING.


BAILEY.

 

[Nosebleed40]

I’m getting inspiration for my Snow Storm drink options. Liquor and bread… snow storm survival 101.

Oh yeah can’t forget…

Essentials.

 

[ML19]

I see about 12 new messages in this thread and I get my hopes up that there'll be some real updates about the impending snow apocalypse (or dribble).

Nope. Just you jive turkeys talking about sarcasm emojis. A disappointment development on many levels.

Sarcasm emojis AND alcohol

 

[Crashsunday]

oh BTW i know there were a few that asked about the Delmarva and I may have undersold the possibilities there, there is a brief window for some decent accumulating snows, especially in coastal areas

Thanks for the update. We are trying to determine feasibility for an event this Sunday and any info for SE VA is helpful.

 

[BrockLobster]

I’m getting inspiration for my Snow Storm drink options. Liquor and bread… snow storm survival 101.

Oh yeah can’t forget…

And milk

 

[Bunk Moreland]

This is going to bust out

 

[ML19]

Any updates from our meteorologist friends? We're so spoiled in this thread.

 

[Bunk Moreland]

Any updates from our meteorologist friends? We're so spoiled in this thread.

If you want snow it's looking good for the island with further east getting a lot snow. It sounds like even though we are 24 hours away stuff can still change cause the models have been shifting and going crazy the last couple days but it's trending towards a solid storm. National weather service is saying 8-13 for Nassau high winds up to 55mph+ Saturday evening.... I'm just some schmuck regurgitating what I read elsewhere so take it with a grain of salt. Smarts guys like kidd and peleches will give a better opinion.

My question for you guys is when should it start what kind of timeframe we looking at?

 

[Chardo]

If you want snow it's looking good for the island with further east getting a lot snow. It sounds like even though we are 24 hours away stuff can still change cause the models have been shifting and going crazy the last couple days but it's trending towards a solid storm. National weather service is saying 8-13 for Nassau high winds up to 55mph+ Saturday evening.... I'm just some schmuck regurgitating what I read elsewhere so take it with a grain of salt. Smarts guys like kidd and peleches will give a better opinion.

My question for you guys is when should it start what kind of timeframe we looking at?

I love when my models shift and go crazy.

 

[TeamKidd]

In the spirit of "We will all go down togetherrrrr" i'll just piggy back on the NWS forecast as I think it's probably pretty good. The models have been stubbornly divergent and unhelpful, but if any trend has been noted, it's one that has ticked up snowfall totals for the Island. Confidence in the forecast is very low, but if I had to, i'd put the foot mark right on the nassau/suffolk border and say 6-12 to the west, 12-18 to the east.

This is a very complex and dynamic storm, where many different parts have to come together to make this go, so it's very touch and go, but some light snow/snow showers develop friday with little or no accumulation, some steadier snow starts falling late night friday and progressively gets heavier overnight with the heaviest snow potential saturday morning into the early afternoon hours.

As I see it, this storm may evolve to have 3 pretty intense bands of snow - "The Full Monty" which is aimed squarely at SE Mass which will get a surefire Blizzard and 2+ feet of snow, "The Middle Child" band which is aimed at like Montauk and then "The Mystery Band" which could set up as a capper somewhere on central LI.

Another feature of this storm will be the very high Snow ratios as it will be quite cold - meaning a very light, fluffy, Cotton candy snowfall which could inflate totals. Also, don't sleep on the wind, as it will get quite windy on saturday as this storm Bombs out over the Atlantic.

I have no shame in saying that this is one of, if not, thee lowest confidence forecast i've ever given here. So prepare for Don Julio 1942, but keep some Bud Light on ice too.

 

[TeamKidd]

To get a bit wonky for a second, for those interested in the complexity - here is the newest NAM model -

...and the associated snow accumulation -

and then this is the last run of the US model (GFS) -

so, you pick'em - 7 or 33 LOL

 

[Bunk Moreland]

To get a bit wonky for a second, for those interested in the complexity - here is the newest NAM model -
View attachment 502634

...and the associated snow accumulation -

and then this is the last run of the US model (GFS) -

so, you pick'em - 7 or 33 LOL

When does GFS run again?

 

[TeamKidd]

When does GFS run again?

Should start running soon, 1030 to 11ish

TOWNER'S WEATHER PAGE: WEATHER MODEL RUN TIMES

 

[Nosebleed40]

Never seen anything like this. So, we’re looking at 0-36 inches. Bring it.

Of course, Kidd is all over it.

 

[TeamKidd]

newest US model, GFS now joins the party and crushes us too... this may actually happen....would not be surprised to see a Blizzard watch posted at this rate

 

[MJF]

To get a bit wonky for a second, for those interested in the complexity - here is the newest NAM model -
View attachment 502634

...and the associated snow accumulation -

and then this is the last run of the US model (GFS) -

so, you pick'em - 7 or 33 LOL

I’m going 8-9 for Elmont and eastern Queens, 14-15 for central Suffolk.