OT: Severe Weather Discussion III

[Bunk Moreland]

What are the times the euro, nam and gfs usually run? I know it goes by 00z 06z etc but what is that in eastern times lol

 

[TeamKidd]

Newest NAM literally gives nothing to Long Island LOL

Thank God I don’t do this for a living anymore

With that said, we ain’t outta the woods just yet. Tomorrow late morning/afternoon is my “throw in the towel” time if I don’t see improvements in the guidance

NAM 12z Kuchera Snowfall gave LI 38 inches of snow. the 18z NAM gave LI not one flake. LOL

 

[Bones45]

Newest NAM literally gives nothing to Long Island LOL

Thank God I don’t do this for a living anymore

With that said, we ain’t outta the woods just yet. Tomorrow late morning/afternoon is my “throw in the towel” time if I don’t see improvements in the guidance

f***ing Bailey.

 

[Riseonfire]

What are the times the euro, nam and gfs usually run? I know it goes by 00z 06z etc but what is that in eastern times lol

00z is midnight, the beginning of a 24 hour clock at the prime meridian.

We're ~ 75* away, 15*/hour is the Earth's spin rate, so we're 5 hours behind.

00z is 7pm Est.

 

[The Real JT]

An almost certain snowy Saturday, afternoon game, no trains between Mineola and Huntington/Farmingdale. What could go wrong?

If Bailey scores a hat trick in a blizzard and nobody’s there did it really happen?

 

[xECK29x]

 

[TeamKidd]

Yeah definitely a storm for the ages. For us? For Boston? For the fishes? No friggen idea lol

 

[Chardo]

My Chipotle was just followed by a bomb cyclone.

 

[Chardo]

I predict 50 percent chance of snow. Guarantee I'm right.

 

[ML19]

i will guarantee right now we get less than 2 inches bc these storms never amount to anything.

 

[YearlyLottery]

i will guarantee right now we get less than 2 inches bc these storms never amount to anything.

I really hope so. You guys can have all the snow you want after I move in the summer.

 

[Bunk Moreland]

So was the GFS drunk tonight cause everything else shifted back west?

 

[Tres Peleches]

So was the GFS drunk tonight cause everything else shifted back west?

Lord knows. It could be a sampling issue, which would explain the off-hour vs on-hour discrepancies in the NAM

Take a look at the 500mb vorticity map for the last 5 runs of the NAM. The 0z last night, 12z yesterday and 0z today all look fairly similar while the 6z and 18z are vastly different to those, but similar to eachother

I think that sampling is very important with this system. Which is why I think tomorrow late morning/early afternoon runs will have a pretty decent idea of where this thing is going since all the players will be on the field at that point, not to mention someone on a wx board I frequent mentioned they were flying hurricane hunters out to get more detailed data for the models. Dunno if that’s true, but If so would be more sampling to work with

Not ready for a final call just yet, but I think I will be ready for number come tomorrow afternoon

 

[Bunk Moreland]

Lord knows. It could be a sampling issue, which would explain the off-hour vs on-hour discrepancies in the NAM

Take a look at the 500mb vorticity map for the last 5 runs of the NAM. The 0z last night, 12z yesterday and 0z today all look fairly similar while the 6z and 18z are vastly different to those, but similar to eachother

I think that sampling is very important with this system. Which is why I think tomorrow late morning/early afternoon runs will have a pretty decent idea of where this thing is going since all the players will be on the field at that point, not to mention someone on a wx board I frequent mentioned they were flying hurricane hunters out to get more detailed data for the models. Dunno if that’s true, but If so would be more sampling to work with

Not ready for a final call just yet, but I think I will be ready for number come tomorrow afternoon

Ive been following along on some message boards and I read that the hurricane hunters had already flown and gathered the info. Which led some to believe that's why the models outside of GFS all came together tonight. I could be wrong though I have no idea what I'm talking about with this stuff just trying to learn a little.

 

[Bunk Moreland]

Annnnd we just got put under a winter storm watch.

 

[Tres Peleches]

Ive been following along on some message boards and I read that the hurricane hunters had already flown and gathered the info. Which led some to believe that's why the models outside of GFS all came together tonight. I could be wrong though I have no idea what I'm talking about with this stuff just trying to learn a little.

No worries, always happy to help if you have any questions!

 

[Bones45]

If Bailey scores a hat trick in a blizzard and nobody’s there did it really happen?

Let’s worry about that should it happen

 

[TeamKidd]

what do you do when every model says 10", except your most reliable and accurate model, which says 1 inch?

get out the OUIJA board and Pray to Jobu.

In all seriousness the NWS does note the GFS Ensemble members also have a cluster further west in alignment with all the rest of the models, which could be pointing to a double barrel storm - which classically has meant a good snowstorm for us.

but then again im always rooting for a big storm so... TP gotta come throw some cold water on my exuberance.

 

[Riseonfire]

i will guarantee right now we get less than 2 inches bc these storms never amount to anything.

Aaaand here we go with the absolute-ist (and wildly incorrect) statements. Just.....stop.

 

[ML19]

Aaaand here we go with the absolute-ist (and wildly incorrect) statements. Just.....stop.

I'm hoping for some snow so I'm going with the "reverse psychology" method. I didn't expect anyone to take that comment seriously

 

[Riseonfire]

I'm hoping for some snow so I'm going with the reverse psychology method. I didn't expect anyone to take that comment seriously

lmao my bad. I just see so many bad weather takes all day long and it drives me mad.

 

[ML19]

lmao my bad. I just see so many bad weather takes all day long and it drives me mad.

I need a "sarcasm" or "I don't really mean this" emoji

 

[The Real JT]

I need a "sarcasm" or "I don't really mean this" emoji

​

 

[PK Cronin]

I need a "sarcasm" or "I don't really mean this" emoji

 

[Bones45]

I need a "sarcasm" or "I don't really mean this" emoji

my avatar