OT: Severe Weather Discussion III

[ML19]

I'm supposed to drive up to Norwalk Saturday night. Do any of our meteorologists here anticipate a problem?

 

[TeamKidd]

I'm supposed to drive up to Norwalk Saturday night. Do any of our meteorologists here anticipate a problem?

yeah that's probably not ideal....

 

[BrockLobster]

I wamma go the isles kraken at 2pm. Hows that looking?

 

[TeamKidd]

Confidence is beginning to rise on a significant coastal storm for this weekend. Models continue to indicate the development of a major Nor'Easter late friday through saturday - there are still details to be worked out, but right now there is a good chance of at least 6 inches of snow, especially as you go east... and somewhere between DC and Boston could get more than 2 feet of snow if all falls into place. The next 24 hours will be to cement and fine tune the forecast but all the elements are in place for a big'un. Stay tuned...

 

[MJF]

View attachment 501925

Confidence is beginning to rise on a significant coastal storm for this weekend. Models continue to indicate the development of a major Nor'Easter late friday through saturday - there are still details to be worked out, but right now there is a good chance of at least 6 inches of snow, especially as you go east... and somewhere between DC and Boston could get more than 2 feet of snow if all falls into place. The next 24 hours will be to cement and fine tune the forecast but all the elements are in place for a big'un. Stay tuned...

BOOOOOOO!!!!

 

[Bones45]

So anyone going to Sat 2pm game gets free Suites!!

and enough chicken fingers to vomit in the new bathrooms!! YES YES YES!!!!!!

 

[Bunk Moreland]

So which is right the Euro or the GFS? Cause it seems like it's either a few inches or we get buried.

 

[Tres Peleches]

So which is right the Euro or the GFS? Cause it seems like it's either a few inches or we get buried.

That’s the crux of the issue lol

it’s the NAM and EURO vs the rest of the world

in the old days, that would be a tough team to beat… now, not so much

this system has so many moving parts that one small error in guidance can completely derail its forecast

basically, these are the storms that make Mets wanna rip their hair out

 

[Bunk Moreland]

That’s the crux of the issue lol

it’s the NAM and EURO vs the rest of the world

in the old days, that would be a tough team to beat… now, not so much

this system has so many moving parts that one small error in guidance can completely derail its forecast

basically, these are the storms that make Mets wanna rip their hair out

A lot of what I'm reading people are saying they think the Euro is going to cave on the next run and shift east also which would suck.

 

[Tres Peleches]

A lot of what I'm reading people are saying they think the Euro is going to cave on the next run and shift east also which would suck.

This reminds me of a storm back when I worked in weather… Euro was consistently dumping feet of snow from NJ eastward into LI while every other model was east

Euro was wrong. Eastern areas got crushed, mind you, but NJ barely saw anything

Really it’s going to come down to how much/how quickly a small packet of energy ejects out of the desert southwest, and how much northern stream interaction there will be once the trough axis reaches the Mississippi

the more/faster that energy ejects and/or the more northern stream interaction the stronger/further west it is

Whether we get two feet of snow or a quarter of that is quite literally a razors edge

 

[Bunk Moreland]

This reminds me of a storm back when I worked in weather… Euro was consistently dumping feet of snow from NJ eastward into LI while every other model was east

Euro was wrong. Eastern areas got crushed, mind you, but NJ barely saw anything

Really it’s going to come down to how much/how quickly a small packet of energy ejects out of the desert southwest, and how much northern stream interaction there will be once the trough axis reaches the Mississippi

the more/faster that energy ejects and/or the more northern stream interaction the stronger/further west it is

Whether we get two feet of snow or a quarter of that is quite literally a razors edge

So at what point would we start to get a consensus? If euro starts to shift east? Watch it be stubborn and double down.

 

[Tres Peleches]

So at what point would we start to get a consensus? If euro starts to shift east? Watch it be stubborn and double down.

The Islanders have been enough disappointment in my life thus far, I don’t need any more lol

By 00z runs tonight the all-important energy in the desert S/W will be over Oregon/northern California which should help with sampling.

I think most of the biggest players will be on the stage by 12z runs tomorrow though.

so I’d say by tomorrow afternoon we should have a pretty damn good idea of what’s up

 

[Chardo]

basically, these are the storms that make Mets wanna rip their hair out

And the Mets make their fans wanna rip their hair out.

 

[TeamKidd]

The Islanders have been enough disappointment in my life thus far, I don’t need any more lol

By 00z runs tonight the all-important energy in the desert S/W will be over Oregon/northern California which should help with sampling.

I think most of the biggest players will be on the stage by 12z runs tomorrow though.

so I’d say by tomorrow afternoon we should have a pretty damn good idea of what’s up

Yeah it's just absurd the bifurcation of the models, also having a tough time deciphering why most of the GEFS Ensamble members are slower and further west than the deterministic run of the GFS. but this kind of divergence in the models are not ideal at this point - and though the NAM should give support to the EURO....somehow it makes me less confident in the EURO lol. tho it has been rock solid for 3 days while everyone else has jumped around....

 

[TeamKidd]

THE EURO RIGHT NOW....

 

[Bunk Moreland]

THE EURO RIGHT NOW....

Looks like 6-12 across the area?

 

[MJF]

A little margin for error here

 

[PK Cronin]

My obligatory as, how's the middle of the Delmarva peninsula looking?

 

[Crashsunday]

My obligatory as, how's the middle of the Delmarva peninsula looking?

While your at it, what about just south in Chesapeake, VA - please??

 

[TeamKidd]

My obligatory as, how's the middle of the Delmarva peninsula looking?

While your at it, what about just south in Chesapeake, VA - please??

Looks like several inches, maybe 2-4" something like that friday into early saturday, it's mostly a coastal/New England storm for sure....

as for us, there will be a sharp gradient between 2 and 12 inches, wouldnt surprise me to see the city get a few and montauk get clobbered. exactly where the back edge sets up we'll know more tomorrow.

 

[Riseonfire]

So anyone going to Sat 2pm game gets free Suites!!

and enough chicken fingers to vomit in the new bathrooms!! YES YES YES!!!!!!

You joke but the college kids are ready for this challenge.

 

[Bunk Moreland]

The funny part is they're right

 

[Chardo]

An almost certain snowy Saturday, afternoon game, no trains between Mineola and Huntington/Farmingdale. What could go wrong?

 

[Bones45]

I'm supposed to drive up to Norwalk Saturday night. Do any of our meteorologists here anticipate a problem?

only if you dont have a snowmobile?


Accuweather is predicting 12-18" for LI as of now.

 

[Tres Peleches]

Newest NAM literally gives nothing to Long Island LOL

Thank God I don’t do this for a living anymore

With that said, we ain’t outta the woods just yet. Tomorrow late morning/afternoon is my “throw in the towel” time if I don’t see improvements in the guidance