Buffalo Bills Season's End: The Off-Seasons Starts Now

[Chainshot]

 

[Dubi Doo]

Take a look where the Dolphins are on this graph (Jets as welll):

https://www.reddit.com/r/nyjets/s/F53k86Bse7

 

[Der Jaeger]

If they can double dip with Franklin in the 1st and Baker in the 3rd....

Why would they do that? With the other needs, that's silly. Even if Franklin starts, you're spending a 3rd on a player who won't see the field.

Oh, and there's the 5th and 7th players on that list, who can do a lot of what Franklin can do, and some stuff that Franklin can't do. Franklin reminds me of Quentin Johnston last year: tall, fast receiver who goes early because he's tall and fast.

 

[Jim Bob]

Why would they do that? With the other needs, that's silly. Even if Franklin starts, you're spending a 3rd on a player who won't see the field.

Oh, and there's the 5th and 7th players on that list, who can do a lot of what Franklin can do, and some stuff that Franklin can't do. Franklin reminds me of Quentin Johnston last year: tall, fast receiver who goes early because he's tall and fast.

Baker could see the field a fair amount as the 4th WR as a rookie if they cut Harty and don't add anyone in FA.

Franklin and Johnston are very different players. Franklin has the ability to take the top off of a defense that Johnston doesn't have.

 

[Jim Bob]

 

[Der Jaeger]

Baker could see the field a fair amount as the 4th WR as a rookie if they cut Harty and don't add anyone in FA.

Franklin and Johnston are very different players. Franklin has the ability to take the top off of a defense that Johnston doesn't have.

I don't see value in a 4th receiver with the 3rd round pick, unless someone falls. Especially since they've got huge gaps along the defensive line and safety.

Just going off one scouting service (NFL draft buzz, paraphrasing):

Johnston: super athlete, elite speed and catch radius, accelerates quickly, dangerous and catch and run and taking the top off of defenses, poor blocker, limited route tree, focus drops.

Franklin: elite speed, precise routes, size-speed-catch radius threat, average blocker, not great at catch and run.

Johnston has better catch and run ability and Franklin is more polished in his route tree. Aside from that, a lot of similarities.

I can't rationalize taking Franklin in the first round when I can get a lot of the same attributes taking Brendan Rice in the 2nd or Roman Wilson in the 2nd, high 3rd round. Especially considering the other needs. It'd be different if the draft was different and didn't have a lot of higher end receivers. But this draft does.

If I'm Beane, and Franklin is the BPA at 28, and I get offers to trade down, I'm doing it.

 

[Jim Bob]

I don't see value in a 4th receiver with the 3rd round pick, unless someone falls. Especially since they've got huge gaps along the defensive line and safety.

Just going off one scouting service (NFL draft buzz, paraphrasing):

Johnston: super athlete, elite speed and catch radius, accelerates quickly, dangerous and catch and run and taking the top off of defenses, poor blocker, limited route tree, focus drops.

Franklin: elite speed, precise routes, size-speed-catch radius threat, average blocker, not great at catch and run.

Johnston has better catch and run ability and Franklin is more polished in his route tree. Aside from that, a lot of similarities.

I can't rationalize taking Franklin in the first round when I can get a lot of the same attributes taking Brendan Rice in the 2nd or Roman Wilson in the 2nd, high 3rd round. Especially considering the other needs. It'd be different if the draft was different and didn't have a lot of higher end receivers. But this draft does.

If I'm Beane, and Franklin is the BPA at 28, and I get offers to trade down, I'm doing it.

From the clips I watched on Johnston and Franklin, they are very different receivers. And the difference in their route trees is the main difference between the two and why I think Franklin is a way better fit for the Bills than Johnston would have been.

And I see the value in leaning into more young offensive weapons around Josh as they will need to have as many cheap offensive players as possible as things progress over the next few years. With this year's WR class being as deep as it is, I believe it is a good time to make two premium investments at WR so that they have cheap depth at the position for multiple seasons moving forward.

 

[Der Jaeger]

From the clips I watched on Johnston and Franklin, they are very different receivers. And the difference in their route trees is the main difference between the two and why I think Franklin is a way better fit for the Bills than Johnston would have been.

And I see the value in leaning into more young offensive weapons around Josh as they will need to have as many cheap offensive players as possible as things progress over the next few years. With this year's WR class being as deep as it is, I believe it is a good time to make two premium investments at WR so that they have cheap depth at the position for multiple seasons moving forward.

I get the logic, and it makes sense. But with the current depth chart and the shift to 12 personnel, it doesn't make much sense to me.

Assume they take Franklin and Baker. Franklin would be the 3rd receiver in the rotation. It'd be a hard road for Franklin to break in as the 2nd receiver over Shakir with the way he finished the year. Shakir would get Davis' minutes and Davis would get Shakir's minutes, pre-Davis injury.

Then Baker would be getting Harty/Sherfield minutes. Which wasn't much because Dorsey/Brady have Kincaid and Knox on the field a lot.

Even if they release/trade Diggs after 2024, the lead receiver is likely Shakir with Franklin possibly working toward that status. And Baker is getting 3WR minutes in an offense that's committed to 12 personnel.

Unless Diggs is moved prior to the draft, or Brady moves away from 12 personnel, I don't see the value in two receivers that early. Especially with players like Robinson, Sweat, Power-Jackson, Kinchens, Nubin, etc. who could be there at 28 and aside from JPJ, play right away and a lot.

At 99, McKinnley Jackson, Marshall Kneeland, Wingo, James Williams, and Taylor-Demerson could be available and all contribute in areas of need way earlier than receiver.

All of that said, I'm still BPA all the way. If a top receiver falls in the 1st, take him.

 

[tsujimoto74]

What a joke the MVP voting is.

 

[misterchainsaw]

What a joke the MVP voting is.

24 people didn't even have Allen on their ballot. Absurd.

 

[Ace]

I can't wait for Beane to do a base restructure of Diggs's contract and lock him in for 2024 and 2025 and the media will still throw out the "Diggs wants out" or the team needs to move him stuff.

Did Graham even watch the clip he’s burying Diggs for? That is a bad look by him.

 

[Ace]

24 people didn't even have Allen on their ballot. Absurd.

It is clear what happened here. The MVP was said to be wide open until the last couple weeks of the season….and then Lamar is almost unanimous? How does that happen? Same way Allen is left off half the ballots. Media narratives control everything. Once the consensus became that Lamar was going to win…every single person but one voted for him. After 17 weeks of hit pieces about Allen’s turnovers…he was deemed nowhere near worthy. Despite lapping him in almost every statically category, winning his division and beating almost every great team they faced. How many games did he leave the field with the lead? 14 or 15?

Can you imagine if Allen actually had the season Lamar did? We’d have gone 6-11 and every ESPN segment would be on how he had fallen off of a cliff.

 

[Jim Bob]

I get the logic, and it makes sense. But with the current depth chart and the shift to 12 personnel, it doesn't make much sense to me.

Assume they take Franklin and Baker. Franklin would be the 3rd receiver in the rotation. It'd be a hard road for Franklin to break in as the 2nd receiver over Shakir with the way he finished the year. Shakir would get Davis' minutes and Davis would get Shakir's minutes, pre-Davis injury.

Then Baker would be getting Harty/Sherfield minutes. Which wasn't much because Dorsey/Brady have Kincaid and Knox on the field a lot.

Even if they release/trade Diggs after 2024, the lead receiver is likely Shakir with Franklin possibly working toward that status. And Baker is getting 3WR minutes in an offense that's committed to 12 personnel.

Unless Diggs is moved prior to the draft, or Brady moves away from 12 personnel, I don't see the value in two receivers that early. Especially with players like Robinson, Sweat, Power-Jackson, Kinchens, Nubin, etc. who could be there at 28 and aside from JPJ, play right away and a lot.

At 99, McKinnley Jackson, Marshall Kneeland, Wingo, James Williams, and Taylor-Demerson could be available and all contribute in areas of need way earlier than receiver.

All of that said, I'm still BPA all the way. If a top receiver falls in the 1st, take him.

While there was an uptick in 12 personnel usage for the Bills, they still used 11 personnel way more than they did 12 personnel in 2023. Plus, Brady has previously liked more 3 and 4 WR sets than 12 personnel. So, it will be interesting to see how the offense evolves next season as Brady implements his playbook.

Shakir was used most heavily in the slot. That was why you saw Sherfield getting almost all of Davis's snaps when he was out and not Shakir. So, thinking that Franklin would be competing with Shakir for snaps is unlikely to be what really happens.

Did Graham even watch the clip he’s burying Diggs for? That is a bad look by him.

From the way Graham has been ranting about Diggs today, I doubt it. He just believes Diggs needs to go because of stuff like him getting salty at Maddy Glabb and a few key drops.

And Tim does not want to hear about any negative cap ramifications that make Diggs being addition by subtraction not a thing, too.

 

[Der Jaeger]

While there was an uptick in 12 personnel usage for the Bills, they still used 11 personnel way more than they did 12 personnel in 2023. Plus, Brady has previously liked more 3 and 4 WR sets than 12 personnel. So, it will be interesting to see how the offense evolves next season as Brady implements his playbook.

Shakir was used most heavily in the slot. That was why you saw Sherfield getting almost all of Davis's snaps when he was out and not Shakir. So, thinking that Franklin would be competing with Shakir for snaps is unlikely to be what really happens.


From the way Graham has been ranting about Diggs today, I doubt it. He just believes Diggs needs to go because of stuff like him getting salty at Maddy Glabb and a few key drops.

And Tim does not want to hear about any negative cap ramifications that make Diggs being addition by subtraction not a thing, too.

If the Bills take a hard turn away from 12 personnel, then draft a receiver and figure out what to do with Knox. But unless they take that turn, I don't know.

If they stay with 12, Diggs and Shakir will be the two lead receivers. And I don't consider Shakir a slot-only receiver. He wasn't used that was after Davis went down, and he was as effective. I think Shakir is more similar to Diggs in terms of play, and how he should be used, than a slot.

 

[misterchainsaw]

For what it's worth, Aaron Schatz (formerly of Football Outsiders and creator of the DVOA metric) was Allen's lone 1st place vote for MVP.

 

[Jim Bob]

If the Bills take a hard turn away from 12 personnel, then draft a receiver and figure out what to do with Knox. But unless they take that turn, I don't know.

If they stay with 12, Diggs and Shakir will be the two lead receivers. And I don't consider Shakir a slot-only receiver. He wasn't used that was after Davis went down, and he was as effective. I think Shakir is more similar to Diggs in terms of play, and how he should be used, than a slot.

They played more 11 than 12 personnel in 2023.

They increased their usage of 12 personnel from 2022 to 2023. But, they were still a predominately 11 personnel team.

 

[Der Jaeger]

View attachment 817042

They played more 11 than 12 personnel in 2023.

They increased their usage of 12 personnel from 2022 to 2023. But, they were still a predominately 11 personnel team.

Some of that was due to Knox missing 4 games, but point taken.

I don't see a rookie taking Davis' snaps. I see Diggs and Shakir taking the 80-82% of the load, with whatever rookie they draft taking the 50% load. Not really factoring Harty into the equation because he was available every game and still didn't get a lot of work.

 

[Der Jaeger]

I'm around 100 mock draft simulations across PFF, PFN, NFL Draft Buzz, and MDD. Overall, I get a way more productive draft when I trade out of 28 and down into the second round, and pick up a late 3rd or an early 4th, depending on what's offered.

 

[buffa dud]

Some of that was due to Knox missing 4 games, but point taken.

I don't see a rookie taking Davis' snaps. I see Diggs and Shakir taking the 80-82% of the load, with whatever rookie they draft taking the 50% load. Not really factoring Harty into the equation because he was available every game and still didn't get a lot of work.

Neither Diggs or Shakir are as effective at blocking as Davis was, so it wouldn't surprise me at all to see a rookie and/or Shorter splitting Davis' snaps. Especially if Beane is forced to cut from the special teams unit, to make the cap work.

 

[Jim Bob]

Some of that was due to Knox missing 4 games, but point taken.

I don't see a rookie taking Davis' snaps. I see Diggs and Shakir taking the 80-82% of the load, with whatever rookie they draft taking the 50% load. Not really factoring Harty into the equation because he was available every game and still didn't get a lot of work.

If they get a real boundary WR, Shakir is not going to get 80% of offensive snaps.

 

[Sabreality]

Neither Diggs or Shakir are as effective at blocking as Davis was, so it wouldn't surprise me at all to see a rookie and/or Shorter splitting Davis' snaps. Especially if Beane is forced to cut from the special teams unit, to make the cap work.

yeah they're going to need to bring in a cheap vet WR who excels at blocking to replace the Sherfield role at least, which is why I brought up Mack Hollins before. He might come in even cheaper than Sherf.

 

[Ace]

Neither Diggs or Shakir are as effective at blocking as Davis was, so it wouldn't surprise me at all to see a rookie and/or Shorter splitting Davis' snaps. Especially if Beane is forced to cut from the special teams unit, to make the cap work.

Sounds like you just found a use for Knox’s massive salary until they can get a cheaper out.

 

[Der Jaeger]

Neither Diggs or Shakir are as effective at blocking as Davis was, so it wouldn't surprise me at all to see a rookie and/or Shorter splitting Davis' snaps. Especially if Beane is forced to cut from the special teams unit, to make the cap work.

If blocking is a huge consideration for replacing Davis, I'd be shocked. And some of the players being talked about on these boards aren't good at blocking.

If they get a real boundary WR, Shakir is not going to get 80% of offensive snaps.

I don't see the Bills having the money for any free agent boundary receiver that's good enough to relegate Shakir the slot role. Nor do I see a rookie doing that, unless Harrison, Nabers, or Odunze drops.

I have a very high opinion of Shakir and don't think he's getting bumped out of the lineup easily.

 

[Dubi Doo]

What a joke the MVP voting is.

Um...you mean MVQB!

 

[Husko]

Why would they do that? With the other needs, that's silly. Even if Franklin starts, you're spending a 3rd on a player who won't see the field.

Oh, and there's the 5th and 7th players on that list, who can do a lot of what Franklin can do, and some stuff that Franklin can't do. Franklin reminds me of Quentin Johnston last year: tall, fast receiver who goes early because he's tall and fast.

They just used a 3rd round pick on a player to be Matt Milano's backup, so I wouldn't put it past them. (and then played Dodson over said player all year).

I don't think QJ is a good comp for Franklin, though. Franklin is a much better deep thread and route runner whereas QJ's only real plus attribute was YAC.