Buffalo Bills Season's End: The Off-Seasons Starts Now

[misterchainsaw]

Dawkins definitely bumps him while throwing. Unless my eyes are just wrong

I was going to edit my post, but I think the ball was out before any contact happens from Dawkins. But again, certainly stops him from stepping into the throw.

 

[Dirty Dog]

I was going to edit my post, but I think the ball was out before any contact happens from Dawkins. But again, certainly stops him from stepping into the throw.

Yea either way (agree to disagree though it is close), I just think it was an odd write up by King about how Allen became a gunslinger and needs to learn from this mistake. He took a shot at the endzone while losing and from the 25, it’s weird criticism. Especially in conjunction with describing the play unfairly (at best)

 

[Jim Bob]

I was going to edit my post, but I think the ball was out before any contact happens from Dawkins. But again, certainly stops him from stepping into the throw.

Jones pushed Dawkins into Allen as Josh was throwing the ball and that was why the throw was short.

 

[HOOats]

Yea either way (agree to disagree though it is close), I just think it was an odd write up by King about how Allen became a gunslinger and needs to learn from this mistake. He took a shot at the endzone while losing and from the 25, it’s weird criticism. Especially in conjunction with describing the play unfairly (at best)

No you're right on. Dion was into Josh as he was releasing the throw. And the Monday morning quarterbacking on that play has been absolutely brutal since it happened. I've tried to avoid most Bills talk since (incl this thread), but that convo has snuck through.

 

[buffa dud]

Josh Allen, aka Mr. Unreliable:
vs PIT - 3 passing touchdowns, 1 rushing touchdown, 0 turnovers, 277 yards of total offense
vs KAN - 1 passing touchdown, 2 rushing touchdowns, 0 turnovers, 258 yards of total offense

Patrick Mahomes, aka The Goat:
vs MIA - 1 passing touchdown, 0 rushing touchdown, 0 turnovers, 303 yards of total offense
vs BUF - 2 passing touchdowns, 0 rushing touchdowns, 0 turnovers, 234 yards of total offense
vs BAL - 1 passing touchdown, 0 rushing touchdowns, 0 turnovers, 255 yards of total offense


I'm sorry, but my snark is in maximum overdrive right now. The NFL is a multi-billion dollar industry. Tens of millions are spent on writers, commentators, talkshow hosts, etc. These individuals are all influencing perceptions (poorly), which influence awards (and HOF chances), along with it hirings, firings and pay checks; I think, as a fan of this league, I deserve a little better than the lame crap people have been espousing of late. The players and coaches (deserve better) too.

 

[NotABadPeriod]

Kansas City is in the Super Bowl for the second straight year without a true #1 wide receiver and without spending a #1 pick on a receiver.

Rice: picked 55th overall. KC could've used an OT but the list of BPA was mostly interior OL.
Moore: picked 54th overall. Moore was probably the BPA at that point.

MVS caught 21 balls for 315 yards and a TD.... at the bargain basement price of $9M this season, and 6th biggest contract on the Chiefs.

The previous season, the Chiefs pulled Smith Schuster off the free agent bargain basket for 1 year at $3.75M. He rewarded them with a 78 catch, 933 yard, and 3 TD season. He then "outpriced" himself and went to New England for a 3 year contract about the same as what the Chiefs gave MVS. In New Englad, he had 29 catches for 260 yards and a TD, though he only played 11 games. But he wasn't ever fulfilling that contract.

Meanwhile, the Chiefs keep rolling along. Why?

Mahomes. He's a terrific decision maker and accurate thrower who just throws to open receivers, whoever they are.

Kelce. He's the #1 receiver from the tight end position, which means the Chiefs don't have to spend a lot on receivers, even though they do at times.

Reid. His horizontal timing offense schemes players open, so they don't need to have a player edge at every position.

Buffalo isn't that far off from this model. Allen is improving in his decision making and made a big leap forward with Brady. Kincaid is about to step into that elite #1 receiving TE discussion. And Brady had a very good first season as OC.

So let's get to the core of the argument. Do I think Beane needs to add a receiver or two. Sure. If you look at my mock drafts, I consistently mock Brendan Rice to Bills in the second round.

Do I ascribe to the reactive fan argument that Buffalo needs to draft a receiver in the 1st round? No. Do I ascribe to the the reactive fan argument that adding a player like Mike Evans is the key to getting to the Super Bowl? No. Not when Beane has to figure out how to get cap compliant, and even then he'll still have huge roster holes on the defensive line and safety. Which adding a receiver won't help.

There's a world of difference between acknowledging a need, evaluating it against other needs in the whole of the organization, and addressing it accordingly..... and the "Bills must draft a receiver in the 1st round" fan argument.

No, it's not mandatory that they take a WR in the 1st round. BUT, at any position really, your chances of hitting on a player go down the longer you wait. If you wait until day 2, the bust chances go up, meaning it may take several shots to find a guy (see: KC). So that has to also be taken into consideration. (NOTE: this doesn't mean overdraft a 2nd round talent in the 1st just because...but if there's a guy in the 1st who you like and have a 1st round grade on, it's worth it.)

Right now, there are only 3 positions I see as needs worthy of a 1st round pick: WR, S, DL (sadly, we still haven't solved our DL problems when it counts, plus a ton of free agents in there). I think S is more likely to be addressed in FA: we'll roll with FA (or Rapp) and Poyer as a tandem for one year, meaning a safety in rounds 3-5 as a developmental guy could be the approach there. That leaves WR and DL.. Every other position you're looking for a depth guy, not a potential day 1 starter.

 

[Husko]

Kansas City is in the Super Bowl for the second straight year without a true #1 wide receiver and without spending a #1 pick on a receiver.

Rice: picked 55th overall. KC could've used an OT but the list of BPA was mostly interior OL.
Moore: picked 54th overall. Moore was probably the BPA at that point.

MVS caught 21 balls for 315 yards and a TD.... at the bargain basement price of $9M this season, and 6th biggest contract on the Chiefs.

The previous season, the Chiefs pulled Smith Schuster off the free agent bargain basket for 1 year at $3.75M. He rewarded them with a 78 catch, 933 yard, and 3 TD season. He then "outpriced" himself and went to New England for a 3 year contract about the same as what the Chiefs gave MVS. In New Englad, he had 29 catches for 260 yards and a TD, though he only played 11 games. But he wasn't ever fulfilling that contract.

Meanwhile, the Chiefs keep rolling along. Why?

Mahomes. He's a terrific decision maker and accurate thrower who just throws to open receivers, whoever they are.

Kelce. He's the #1 receiver from the tight end position, which means the Chiefs don't have to spend a lot on receivers, even though they do at times.

Reid. His horizontal timing offense schemes players open, so they don't need to have a player edge at every position.

Buffalo isn't that far off from this model. Allen is improving in his decision making and made a big leap forward with Brady. Kincaid is about to step into that elite #1 receiving TE discussion. And Brady had a very good first season as OC.

So let's get to the core of the argument. Do I think Beane needs to add a receiver or two. Sure. If you look at my mock drafts, I consistently mock Brendan Rice to Bills in the second round.

Do I ascribe to the reactive fan argument that Buffalo needs to draft a receiver in the 1st round? No. Do I ascribe to the the reactive fan argument that adding a player like Mike Evans is the key to getting to the Super Bowl? No. Not when Beane has to figure out how to get cap compliant, and even then he'll still have huge roster holes on the defensive line and safety. Which adding a receiver won't help.

There's a world of difference between acknowledging a need, evaluating it against other needs in the whole of the organization, and addressing it accordingly..... and the "Bills must draft a receiver in the 1st round" fan argument.

Everything you write is mostly true, but the reason they kept rolling on is that Spags put Lamar in the walls of jericho and the Ravens had some horrible mistakes. Mahomes/Reid scored 17 points and had 4 first downs in the entire second half of the game. If Spags doesn't pitch an alltime great defensive game, we're having a very different conversation right now.

But we mostly agree. The Bills need to add more WR talent both short and longterm. But no, they hardly should be forcing a pick at the position in the first round.

 

[Dubi Doo]

Josh Allen, aka Mr. Unreliable:
vs PIT - 3 passing touchdowns, 1 rushing touchdown, 0 turnovers,

Josh Allen, aka Mr. Unreliable:
vs PIT - 3 passing touchdowns, 1 rushing touchdown, 0 turnovers, 277 yards of total offense
vs KAN - 1 passing touchdown, 2 rushing touchdowns, 0 turnovers, 258 yards of total offense

Patrick Mahomes, aka The Goat:
vs MIA - 1 passing touchdown, 0 rushing touchdown, 0 turnovers, 303 yards of total offense
vs BUF - 2 passing touchdowns, 0 rushing touchdowns, 0 turnovers, 234 yards of total offense
vs BAL - 1 passing touchdown, 0 rushing touchdowns, 0 turnovers, 255 yards of total offense


I'm sorry, but my snark is in maximum overdrive right now. The NFL is a multi-billion dollar industry. Tens of millions are spent on writers, commentators, talkshow hosts, etc. These individuals are all influencing perceptions (poorly), which influence awards (and HOF chances), along with it hirings, firings and pay checks; I think, as a fan of this league, I deserve a little better than the lame crap people have been espousing of late. The players and coaches (deserve better) too.

I'm a firm believer if you swapped Mahomes and Allen, the results wouldn't be much different. Allen would probably have an MVP or two, a whole bunch of AFCC appearances, and a SB or two. Imagine 2020 Allen throwing to prime Hill and Kelce with Reid calling plays? Geez.

Mahomes isn't this god among boys. His big advantage is he's been groomed since day 1 by one of the greatest offensive minds to ever coach in football.

That's not a slight against Mahomes, either. Him and Allen are the two most skilled QBs in the NFL. Bar none.

That being said, the hardware Mahomes is stacking right now is also reflective of his coach. To do what the Chiefs are doing, it takes more than en elite QB. It takes elite coaching.

It's like P Manning compared to Brady. If you put Manning on those Pats teams, the results probably arent that much different. The difference is Brady had one of the greatest coaches of all time while Manning didn't + other reasons out of Manning's control.

The discussion of QB vs QB is even more nuanced than this (if we're talking who has more of an impact rather than legacy), but Ive already written enough!

 

[Dingo44]

I'm a firm believer if you swapped Mahomes and Allen, the results wouldn't be much different. Allen would probably have an MVP or two, a whole bunch of AFCC appearances, and a SB or two. Imagine 2020 Allen throwing to prime Hill and Kelce with Reid calling plays? Geez.

Mahomes isn't this god among boys. His big advantage is he's been groomed since day 1 by one of the greatest offensive minds to ever coach in football.

That's not a slight against Mahomes, either. Him and Allen are the two most skilled QBs in the NFL. Bar none.

That being said, the hardware Mahomes is stacking right now is also reflective of his coach. To do what the Chiefs are doing, it takes more than en elite QB. It takes elite coaching.

It's like P Manning compared to Brady. If you put Manning on those Pats teams, the results probably arent that much different. The difference is Brady had one of the greatest coaches of all time while Manning didn't + other reasons out of Manning's control.

The discussion of QB vs QB is even more nuanced than this (if we're talking who has more of an impact rather than legacy), but Ive already written enough!

Imagine Donovan McNabb's career without Reid - and I think McNabb was a very good QB.

 

[Jim Bob]

In case you wondered if the players cared about that stuff...

 

[Dubi Doo]

Imagine Donovan McNabb's career without Reid - and I think McNabb was a very good QB.

He'd be a worse QB for sure. What Reid did with Smith and Vick is incredible, too. Vick had by far his best passing year of his career when Reid coached him in 2010. Smith's play elevated under him, too.

Now he has a QB with elite arm talent. Mahomes has been trained by a Jedi master for his entire career, and in turn he's become the best QB in the NFL.

I like McDermott a lot, but just imagine in an alternate universe Allen was being mentored by Reid for the first 7 years of his career. On the Bills, pf course.

 

[Jim Bob]

 

[My Cozen Dylan]

Someone who is better equipped to evaluate this than I - is Xavier McKinney an option for us in UFA? Spotrac has him at 5 years, $52M, and I’m sure it can be structured for minimal cap in 2024.

 

[Jim Bob]

Someone who is better equipped to evaluate this than I - is Xavier McKinney an option for us in UFA? Spotrac has him at 5 years, $52M, and I’m sure it can be structured for minimal cap in 2024.

Given how good McD and crew have been at coaching up the safety position, I doubt they would splash that much money on a guy.

The much more likely route is getting a FA or two that are more in the Rapp mold, or what Hyde (a guy that had a history playing both CB & S in college and was primarily a CB in the NFL before signing in Buffalo) or Poyer (mostly a backup and a one year starter prior to hitting FA).

I think under the radar guys that they bet on being able to coach up are the likely fixes at the S position.

I am sort of expecting this approach to the S position:

- Keep Poyer for one more year
- Try and re-sign Rapp for another year and have him be the SS2 behind Poyer who gets some reps in 3 S sets
- Add an under the radar value veteran or a day 3 pick at FS to replace Hyde
- Keep Damar around in the depth role he had this year

 

[My Cozen Dylan]

Given how good McD and crew have been at coaching up the safety position, I doubt they would splash that much money on a guy.

The much more likely route is getting a FA or two that are more in the Rapp mold, or what Hyde (a guy that had a history playing both CB & S in college and was primarily a CB in the NFL before signing in Buffalo) or Poyer (mostly a backup and a one year starter prior to hitting FA).

I think under the radar guys that they bet on being able to coach up are the likely fixes at the S position.

I am sort of expecting this approach to the S position:

- Keep Poyer for one more year
- Try and re-sign Rapp for another year and have him be the SS2 behind Poyer who gets some reps in 3 S sets
- Add an under the radar value veteran or a day 3 pick at FS to replace Hyde
- Keep Damar around in the depth role he had this year

A day 2 pick at S seems needed IMO, regardless of what they do in FA.

 

[Der Jaeger]

No, it's not mandatory that they take a WR in the 1st round. BUT, at any position really, your chances of hitting on a player go down the longer you wait. If you wait until day 2, the bust chances go up, meaning it may take several shots to find a guy (see: KC). So that has to also be taken into consideration. (NOTE: this doesn't mean overdraft a 2nd round talent in the 1st just because...but if there's a guy in the 1st who you like and have a 1st round grade on, it's worth it.)

Right now, there are only 3 positions I see as needs worthy of a 1st round pick: WR, S, DL (sadly, we still haven't solved our DL problems when it counts, plus a ton of free agents in there). I think S is more likely to be addressed in FA: we'll roll with FA (or Rapp) and Poyer as a tandem for one year, meaning a safety in rounds 3-5 as a developmental guy could be the approach there. That leaves WR and DL.. Every other position you're looking for a depth guy, not a potential day 1 starter.

That's true of any position, not just WR. So the best route is to just draft BPA.

As far as needs go, they'll change between now and draft day. Beane has some decisions to make at LT and CB for possible extensions. If they don't happen, then Buffalo will have more needs than you listed, and more pressing needs than WR.

Everything you write is mostly true, but the reason they kept rolling on is that Spags put Lamar in the walls of jericho and the Ravens had some horrible mistakes. Mahomes/Reid scored 17 points and had 4 first downs in the entire second half of the game. If Spags doesn't pitch an alltime great defensive game, we're having a very different conversation right now.

But we mostly agree. The Bills need to add more WR talent both short and longterm. But no, they hardly should be forcing a pick at the position in the first round.

I get what you're saying for sure - for that game, the Chiefs D was amazing. In the long term, I think the Reid-Mahomes-Kelce combo keeps the offense going regardless of who they put around them.

I'm hoping the same for Brady-Allen-Kincaid.

 

[TageGod]

Ironically the terrible playoff D made stops in the 4th quarter and the offense failed at the end, the opposite of the last losses to chiefs.

If we learned anything, it's that McDermott can get a LOT out of defensive backups/average players. Get younger and save your cap for offense. Draft receiver round one and sign a good/FAST receiver to replace Davis for a year or two. If they can actually get cook to catch a ball like he is supposed to, sending some fast receivers vertical to stress safeties will open up the middle of the field for Shakir/Diggs/Kincaid to feast and even make Cook a more dangerous receiver.

 

[Jim Bob]

A day 2 pick at S seems needed IMO, regardless of what they do in FA.

If they re-sign Rapp at SS and get a Hyde replacement at FS in FA, I don't see them needing to add a 5th safety in day 1 or day 2 of the draft.

 

[DolanPlsGoSabres]

Are there any S-LB hybrid types available (I know Chinn is one of them, probably can be had for a cheap deal) either in the draft or in FA?

 

[Taro Tsujimoto]

 

[SundherDome]

Great move, curious who calls plays.

We could be looking for new coordinators next year, McD and Beane need to be factoring that in.

 

[Der Jaeger]

Are there any S-LB hybrid types available (I know Chinn is one of them, probably can be had for a cheap deal) either in the draft or in FA?

James Williams, S, Miami is a Cam Chancellor type safety. Could be had rounds 4-5 in the draft.

 

[TehDoak]

Let's not be mistaken here, it's still McDermott's defense.

McDermott will have input in game about play calls, just like he did with Frazier. I HOPE, however, that him having a little less on his plate lets McDermott focus on attention to detail stuff which was severely lacking in the previous role.

Honestly, the bills should pay Belicheck like 5M to come in as a special advisor to McDermott and simply do a brain dump on what he saw from the Bills and what they can fix. And help him game plan defenses for big games.

 

[SundherDome]

Let's not be mistaken here, it's still McDermott's defense.

McDermott will have input in game about play calls, just like he did with Frazier. I HOPE, however, that him having a little less on his plate lets McDermott focus on attention to detail stuff which was severely lacking in the previous role.

Honestly, the bills should pay Belicheck like 5M to come in as a special advisor to McDermott and simply do a brain dump on what he saw from the Bills and what they can fix. And help him game plan defenses for big games.

I dunno if he could put Pandora back in the box though.

 

[Husko]

That's true of any position, not just WR. So the best route is to just draft BPA.

As far as needs go, they'll change between now and draft day. Beane has some decisions to make at LT and CB for possible extensions. If they don't happen, then Buffalo will have more needs than you listed, and more pressing needs than WR.

I get what you're saying for sure - for that game, the Chiefs D was amazing. In the long term, I think the Reid-Mahomes-Kelce combo keeps the offense going regardless of who they put around them.

I'm hoping the same for Brady-Allen-Kincaid.

The hardest part is that if Brady is that, we'll lose him quickly. But that's just the way it is when you have a defensive HC.