Buffalo Bills Season's End: The Off-Seasons Starts Now

[Jim Bob]

They’ve been fine the past couple of weeks.

@Philly - 34 points - that’s great
@KC - 20 points - top 10 DVOA defense. The most KC has given up at home is 21 (Lions and Eagles)
Dallas - 31 - that’s great
@LAC - 24 points - short week, travel - Ravens and Dallas only got 20 @LAC
NE - 27 total points (20 points from O) - not a terrible day

If the Bills O can put up 24-27 points a game in the playoffs, I’d expect them to win those games.

20 points at home with 3 short fields thanks to TOs caused by the D is underwhelming, IMO.

Another huge concern right now is that Diggs has disappeared since the switch from Dorsey to Brady.

Diggs 10 games under Dorsey (per game basis): 10.2 targets 7.4 receptions 86.8 rec yards 0.70 TDs 72.5% Catch%
Diggs 6 games under Brady (per game basis): 8.8 targets 4.5 receptions 38 rec yards 0.17 TDs 50.9% Catch%

 

[Jim Bob]

Perfect 2024 NFL Draft prospect for all 32 teams: Marvin Harrison Jr. to the Cardinals, Bo Nix to the Broncos and more | NFL Draft | PFF

Every NFL team will have a shortlist of players they've fallen in love with in the 2024 NFL Draft. Here is one such prospect each franchise should be targeting.

www.pff.com

BUFFALO BILLS: WR TROY FRANKLIN, OREGON​

Outside of Stefon Diggs, the wide receiver room in Buffalo has been lacking. A big piece that is missing is another deep threat element to the Bills' passing game given how unreliable Gabe Davis has been. With Davis a pending free agent, they will likely look to replace him. Franklin would be the perfect player to do just that. He registered 37 receptions of 15 yards or more this season with a 23.4% deep target percentage and a 94.3 receiving grade on passes beyond 20 yards.

 

[buffa dud]

20 points at home with 3 short fields thanks to TOs caused by the D is underwhelming, IMO.

Another huge concern right now is that Diggs has disappeared since the switch from Dorsey to Brady.

Diggs 10 games under Dorsey (per game basis): 10.2 targets 7.4 receptions 86.8 rec yards 0.70 TDs 72.5% Catch%
Diggs 6 games under Brady (per game basis): 8.8 targets 4.5 receptions 38 rec yards 0.17 TDs 50.9% Catch%

I'm not prepared to write off what Diggs has been doing this season as OC-related. He's 30 years old. It's possible he just doesn't have the jump he needs to beat the coverage other team's defensive coordinators are sending his way. And the other receiving options on this roster haven't done enough to make those coordinators rethink the strategy.

 

[TehDoak]

So I watched the Miami/Ravens highlights.

Miami was right there with them for the 1st half. They were able to drive down the field on Baltimore. Had to settle for 2 field goals because of a bad drop by Hill and just stalling.

It was 21-13 with like 2 minutes to go, Tua forced a bad ball and Baltimore got it and were able to turn it to 28-13 before the half. 2nd half started, Baltimore had a huge kickoff return, 35-13 and that was ball game.

Honestly, this game is going to come down to Buffalo's ability to execute on offense. Them losing Chubb/Howard certainly helps, but we are going to have to get 7 when we have opportunities.

Miami is going to be able to move the ball. Their red zone offense has sucked the last few weeks, part of that is because they have had either Hill or Waddle. They likely will have both this week.

I have confidence that our D can keep them under 28. I have less confidence in our offenses ability to crank out 28+.

Also, Miami had no answer for the Ravens RB Hill out of the backfield, who is very similar to Cook. I also don't expect Miami to be able to pressure Allen regularly. Allen should have time to make good decisions and Cook/Knox/Kincaid should be able to generate yards as outlet targets.

 

[Willgamesh]

So I watched the Miami/Ravens highlights.

Miami was right there with them for the 1st half. They were able to drive down the field on Baltimore. Had to settle for 2 field goals because of a bad drop by Hill and just stalling.

It was 21-13 with like 2 minutes to go, Tua forced a bad ball and Baltimore got it and were able to turn it to 28-13 before the half. 2nd half started, Baltimore had a huge kickoff return, 35-13 and that was ball game.

Honestly, this game is going to come down to Buffalo's ability to execute on offense. Them losing Chubb/Howard certainly helps, but we are going to have to get 7 when we have opportunities.

Miami is going to be able to move the ball. Their red zone offense has sucked the last few weeks, part of that is because they have had either Hill or Waddle. They likely will have both this week.

I have confidence that our D can keep them under 28. I have less confidence in our offenses ability to crank out 28+.

Also, Miami had no answer for the Ravens RB Hill out of the backfield, who is very similar to Cook. I also don't expect Miami to be able to pressure Allen regularly. Allen should have time to make good decisions and Cook/Knox/Kincaid should be able to generate yards as outlet targets.

Why do you think they will have Waddle?

 

[Der Jaeger]

So the FG drive was Alabama's 5th drive. Over both teams' first 4 drives of the half, Alabama outgained them 94-44. I'm sorry, that's not domination. The drive after the "center aborted snap" they went run for 3, run for 3, incomplete, punt. They punted twice, scored the TD, and turned it over once. And they did fumble. That's part of the game, just like the special teams that allowed Alabama to even have a 2nd half lead. Michigan's offense certainly stalled for a bit in the 2nd half, but Alabama was in no way overwhelming on offense. And MIchigan's offense also didn't go backwards or turn the ball over, which made Alabama's offense have to drive the length of the field to score - which they managed to do 1 time all evening (even that's being generous, because their 2nd half TD drive started near midfield after they gained 20 yards solely on difference of punt yardage after an exchange of punts).

If you want to include each teams 5th drive, Alabama outgained Michigan 129-119 over an even amount of 2nd half drives. Again, not "dominance" in any sense of the word. If Alabama's power run game was so significant, they should have been able to keep it going in overtime and probably even use it to get into FG range at the end of the game, and yet, Michigan's defense stopped them in both instances. Again.

Are you a Michigan fan?

Full disclosure: I'm the fan of no college team.

Let's take a look at what Alabama did after halftime:

1st Alabama drive: 9 plays. 1st down: 2 yard completion. 2nd down: 9 yard run. 1st down: Incomplete. 2nd down: 11 yard run. 1st down: 8 yard completion. 2nd down: 9 yard run.

Alabama is driving and Michigan can't stop the run. 1st down at the Michigan 47. Bad snap. 2nd and 23: bad snap. 3rd and 29: 7 yard run then a punt. That's Alabama beating themselves, because Michigan wasn't stopping them. Three power runs for around 10 yards each. That's classic Alabama football.

Michigan's 1st drive: Michigan comes back with 2 runs for a yard, then needs a really good reception by Johnson to keep the drive going. 2 more runs for -1 yards, a 7 yard completion, and punt.

Alabama 2nd drive: goes 3 and out.
Michigan 2nd drive: goes 3 and out.

3rd Alabama drive: 8 plays. 1st down: 9 yard run. 2nd down: 8 yard run. 1st down: 10 yard run. 1st down: 3 yard run. 2nd down: 9 yard completion. 1st down: no gain. 2nd down (after false start penalty): 18 yard run. 1st and goal: 3 yard run for TD.

Another drive where Michigan's defense couldn't stop Alabama's power game.

Michigan 3rd drive: 3 and out. 1 total yard gained.
4th Alabama drive: 1st down: 13 yard reception. 1st down: 5 yard run, fumble.

That's the drive that Alabama historically drives a stake in the heart of the opponent.

Michigan 4th drive: 5 plays, 20 yard pass to start the drive, followed by no gain, 7 yard loss and fumble (Michigan recovers) and an incompletion. Missed FG.

5th Alabama drive: 1st down: 4 yard run. 2nd down: 17 yard run. 1st down: 2 yard run. 2nd down: 2 yard completion. 3rd down: 11 yard run. 1st down (after Alabama penalty): 2 yard run. 2nd down: 4 yard completion. 3rd down: sack. Alabama FG.

So, to recap:

Michigan's 1st 4 second half drives net them no points and 44 yards. They missed a FG which was gifted to them by an Alabama fumble.

Alabama moves the football at will on 4 of their 5 second half drives. They run the ball all over Michigan, 18 runs for 134 yards and a TD (minus the botched snap sacks).

That's why I used the word “dominated.” Michigan got 44 yards while Alabama pounded the ball for 134 yards. If they don’t botch 2 straight snaps, and Milroe doesn’t fumble, those two drives look like the other two Alabama drives, where Michigan couldn’t stop the run.

Kudos to Michigan for hanging in there, and for that last great drive and the OT drive. Historically, Saban comes out after halftime with great adjustments. They did last night again, but shot themselves in the foot twice in the second half and again with the low snap on 4th and goal in OT. Alabama stopped Alabama.

 

[TehDoak]

Why do you think they will have Waddle?

I'm assuming. They called the ankle sprain not severe. I guess we'll see Wednesday when the injury report comes out. He didn't practice at all last week,

 

[Der Jaeger]

Mason Graham as a second Kyle Williams? That kid is a good DT.

Penix is playing into the top 10 of the draft. If he beats Michigan, I don't see how he's not in the conversation among teams needing QBs in the top 5.

Personally, I like him better than Williams.

 

[HOOats]

Hypothetically if we move on from Gabe, how important will replacing his blocking/intangibles be when considering a new WR2? I think our staff likes to have as many "henchmen" on the field as possible (Gabe, Knox, Kincaid, Morris, Gilliam, even Sheffield) for run/bully purposes.

For our college watchers, which draft WRs most resemble Gabe (with better hands and another gear ideally)? I love the idea of Franklin in a vacuum, but I'm not sure Beane is looking for a pure vert threat in a lighter frame.

 

[missingmika]

Fastest kicker in the league!

 

[misterchainsaw]

Are you a Michigan fan?

Full disclosure: I'm the fan of no college team.

Let's take a look at what Alabama did after halftime:

1st Alabama drive: 9 plays. 1st down: 2 yard completion. 2nd down: 9 yard run. 1st down: Incomplete. 2nd down: 11 yard run. 1st down: 8 yard completion. 2nd down: 9 yard run.

Alabama is driving and Michigan can't stop the run. 1st down at the Michigan 47. Bad snap. 2nd and 23: bad snap. 3rd and 29: 7 yard run then a punt. That's Alabama beating themselves, because Michigan wasn't stopping them. Three power runs for around 10 yards each. That's classic Alabama football.

Michigan's 1st drive: Michigan comes back with 2 runs for a yard, then needs a really good reception by Johnson to keep the drive going. 2 more runs for -1 yards, a 7 yard completion, and punt.

Alabama 2nd drive: goes 3 and out.
Michigan 2nd drive: goes 3 and out.

3rd Alabama drive: 8 plays. 1st down: 9 yard run. 2nd down: 8 yard run. 1st down: 10 yard run. 1st down: 3 yard run. 2nd down: 9 yard completion. 1st down: no gain. 2nd down (after false start penalty): 18 yard run. 1st and goal: 3 yard run for TD.

Another drive where Michigan's defense couldn't stop Alabama's power game.

Michigan 3rd drive: 3 and out. 1 total yard gained.
4th Alabama drive: 1st down: 13 yard reception. 1st down: 5 yard run, fumble.

That's the drive that Alabama historically drives a stake in the heart of the opponent.

Michigan 4th drive: 5 plays, 20 yard pass to start the drive, followed by no gain, 7 yard loss and fumble (Michigan recovers) and an incompletion. Missed FG.

5th Alabama drive: 1st down: 4 yard run. 2nd down: 17 yard run. 1st down: 2 yard run. 2nd down: 2 yard completion. 3rd down: 11 yard run. 1st down (after Alabama penalty): 2 yard run. 2nd down: 4 yard completion. 3rd down: sack. Alabama FG.

So, to recap:

Michigan's 1st 4 second half drives net them no points and 44 yards. They missed a FG which was gifted to them by an Alabama fumble.

Alabama moves the football at will on 4 of their 5 second half drives. They run the ball all over Michigan, 18 runs for 134 yards and a TD (minus the botched snap sacks).

That's why I used the word “dominated.” Michigan got 44 yards while Alabama pounded the ball for 134 yards. If they don’t botch 2 straight snaps, and Milroe doesn’t fumble, those two drives look like the other two Alabama drives, where Michigan couldn’t stop the run.

Kudos to Michigan for hanging in there, and for that last great drive and the OT drive. Historically, Saban comes out after halftime with great adjustments. They did last night again, but shot themselves in the foot twice in the second half and again with the low snap on 4th and goal in OT. Alabama stopped Alabama.

No, I'm not a Michigan fan.

You're making a hell of a lot of assumptions, mainly that Alabama would continue their drives and wouldn't be stopped by Michigan without mistakes, even though Alabama's very longest drive in the entire game was 55 yards.

You watched a sub section of a game correspond to your prior and assumed "well this is what the rest of the game would look like if Alabama just didn't f*** up." And yet Alabama had just as pathetic of a 3 drive stretch after their first half TD than Michigan in the 2nd half.

I"m sorry, I just don't buy it. Alabama ran a whopping 3 more plays over the course of the game with their "dominating power run game". They were outgained by 60 yards overall. Bama hasn't been the dominant Bama of the past for at least a couple of years now.

 

[Jim Bob]

I'm assuming. They called the ankle sprain not severe. I guess we'll see Wednesday when the injury report comes out. He didn't practice at all last week,

A high ankle sprain is usually a 4-6 week injury. I would be surprised if Waddle plays this Sunday. And if he does, he will likely have a really hard time planting with that injured ankle and will be a one way cut player.

 

[stealth1]

I don't think it matters that Michigan won or if Bama was better. Neither one is beating Washington.

 

[TehDoak]

A high ankle sprain is usually a 4-6 week injury. I would be surprised if Waddle plays this Sunday. And if he does, he will likely have a really hard time planting with that injured ankle and will be a one way cut player.

No Waddle would be a gift for the Bills. Credit to the Dolphins, they still moved the ball very well against the Baltimore defense with 'just' Hill last week. The real problem has been in the red zone where Hills speed isn't as big of a weapon and they don't have a second option for teams to worry about.

 

[Der Jaeger]

No, I'm not a Michigan fan.

You're making a hell of a lot of assumptions, mainly that Alabama would continue their drives and wouldn't be stopped by Michigan without mistakes, even though Alabama's very longest drive in the entire game was 55 yards.

You watched a sub section of a game correspond to your prior and assumed "well this is what the rest of the game would look like if Alabama just didn't f*** up." And yet Alabama had just as pathetic of a 3 drive stretch after their first half TD than Michigan in the 2nd half.

I"m sorry, I just don't buy it. Alabama ran a whopping 3 more plays over the course of the game with their "dominating power run game". They were outgained by 60 yards overall. Bama hasn't been the dominant Bama of the past for at least a couple of years now.

I watched the whole game. And yes, I'm making assumptions, but really only one: that Alabama's second half running success would've continued on drives on which they didn't stop themselves.

In the second half, after Alabama adjusted, they stopped Michigan cold up until their final drive (aside from the goalline kneeldowns). 4 drives and Michigan got nothing.

In the second half, Alabama pounded Michigan for 134 yards rushing on 5 drives. They were driving when the 2 snaps got botched, and it was on the ground. Milroe had a 5 yard gain when the fumble happened.

Alabama's ground game was crushing it on 4 of 5 drives, so to assume that they'd continue that play isn't that far fetched. It's actual a good assumption. Alabama was ripping Michigan's defense for gains around 10 yards regularly in the second half, and the Wolverines didn't have an answer.

You're using whole game stats. But that discounts that Alabama went in at halftime and made significant offensive and defensive adjustments. When you gain 44 yards and zero points, with 2 first downs, and your opponent gains 134 yards on the ground alone and 10 points, with 2 other promising drives..... that aligns with the statement that Alabama was dominating but beat themselves.

Not looking at the second half as a sub-section is silly. That's like saying the Oilers played pretty well, they outgained the Bills 429 to 366 yards, but still lost a tight one.

(That's the 1992 comeback game - in totality without looking at the second half as a sub-section of the game).

 

[Mike McDermott]

If the Steelers win cause they botch a call….

 

[Husko]

Hypothetically if we move on from Gabe, how important will replacing his blocking/intangibles be when considering a new WR2? I think our staff likes to have as many "henchmen" on the field as possible (Gabe, Knox, Kincaid, Morris, Gilliam, even Sheffield) for run/bully purposes.

For our college watchers, which draft WRs most resemble Gabe (with better hands and another gear ideally)? I love the idea of Franklin in a vacuum, but I'm not sure Beane is looking for a pure vert threat in a lighter frame.

Noah Brown is a guy I would look at as a "Gabe on the cheap" replacement. Sort of a poor man's Gabe in terms of taking care of the intangibles.

I don't think they'd ask a rookie to come in and do what Gabe does. If they draft a WR high, it's more with a look toward Digg's eventual replacement as a primary option.

Mason Graham as a second Kyle Williams? That kid is a good DT.

Penix is playing into the top 10 of the draft. If he beats Michigan, I don't see how he's not in the conversation among teams needing QBs in the top 5.

Personally, I like him better than Williams.

He'll be a fascinating case. His wholistic player profile is more of a day 2 pick. But the way he keeps playing, it's hard to justify letting him slip. Reminds me of Hurts in terms of production versus profile (different skillsets, obviously).

 

[ValJamesDuex]

Fastest kicker in the league!

who ducked away from making the tackle imo : )

 

[misterchainsaw]

I watched the whole game. And yes, I'm making assumptions, but really only one: that Alabama's second half running success would've continued on drives on which they didn't stop themselves.

In the second half, after Alabama adjusted, they stopped Michigan cold up until their final drive (aside from the goalline kneeldowns). 4 drives and Michigan got nothing.

In the second half, Alabama pounded Michigan for 134 yards rushing on 5 drives. They were driving when the 2 snaps got botched, and it was on the ground. Milroe had a 5 yard gain when the fumble happened.

Alabama's ground game was crushing it on 4 of 5 drives, so to assume that they'd continue that play isn't that far fetched. It's actual a good assumption. Alabama was ripping Michigan's defense for gains around 10 yards regularly in the second half, and the Wolverines didn't have an answer.

You're using whole game stats. But that discounts that Alabama went in at halftime and made significant offensive and defensive adjustments. When you gain 44 yards and zero points, with 2 first downs, and your opponent gains 134 yards on the ground alone and 10 points, with 2 other promising drives..... that aligns with the statement that Alabama was dominating but beat themselves.

Not looking at the second half as a sub-section is silly. That's like saying the Oilers played pretty well, they outgained the Bills 429 to 366 yards, but still lost a tight one.

(That's the 1992 comeback game - in totality without looking at the second half as a sub-section of the game).

First of all, on those 5 drives, Alabama "stopped themselves" twice (I wouldn't call forcing a fumble necessarily having nothing to do with the defense, but whatever), scored ONE TD, and were stopped by Michigan twice. So, yes, it is QUITE an assumption that the two "stopped themselves" drives Michigan wouldn't end up stopping them eventually, when Alabama's longest drive ALL game long was 55 yards. Alabama didn't even get into the red zone outside of the two TD drives (one of which was in the first half and started 5 yards away). And Milroe also did not have a five yard gain when he fumbled. That's completely inaccurate. He had 1 yard before Michigan tackled him and forced the fumble, and the ball bounced forward another 4 to where Michigan recovered.

And then Michigan came back and scored, stopped Alabama, scored, and stopped Alabama again. So much for those adjustments. We're going to have to agree to disagree here. I mean geez, if that's second half dominance for Alabama, then Michigan kicked the ever living shit out of Alabama in the first half.

(That's the 1992 comeback game - in totality without looking at the second half as a sub-section of the game).

No shit. It's also a laughable comparison. Come back when Alabama managed to score more than 1 touchdown over the entire half. They couldn't even get the ball into the red zone again. You're really reaching here.

 

[Der Jaeger]

He'll be a fascinating case. His wholistic player profile is more of a day 2 pick. But the way he keeps playing, it's hard to justify letting him slip. Reminds me of Hurts in terms of production versus profile (different skillsets, obviously).

Penix has an Andy Dalton type of skill set (with more mobility), but he just keeps winning, and winning over good teams. At some point, actual on field results have to matter. And Penix just keeps lining teams up and knocking them down.

 

[jd1970]

Just ruin Miami's season and I'm happy.

 

[Der Jaeger]

First of all, on those 5 drives, Alabama "stopped themselves" twice (I wouldn't call forcing a fumble necessarily having nothing to do with the defense, but whatever), scored ONE TD, and were stopped by Michigan twice. So, yes, it is QUITE an assumption that the two "stopped themselves" drives Michigan wouldn't end up stopping them eventually, when Alabama's longest drive ALL game long was 55 yards. Alabama didn't even get into the red zone outside of the two TD drives. And Milroe also did not have a five yard gain when he fumbled. That's completely inaccurate. He had 1 yard before Michigan tackled him and forced the fumble, and the ball bounced forward another 4 to where Michigan recovered.

And then Michigan came back and scored, stopped Alabama, scored, and stopped Alabama again. So much for those adjustments. We're going to have to agree to disagree here. I mean geez, if that's second half dominance for Alabama, then Michigan kicked the ever living shit out of Alabama in the first half.



No shit. It's also a laughable comparison. Come back when Alabama managed to score more than 1 touchdown over the entire half. They couldn't even get the ball into the red zone again. You're really reaching here.

Of the five drives, Michigan stopped Alabama once. Yes, congrats, you got me on the 5 yard run. Watch the Milroe fumble replay. Milroe never switches the ball to his left hand and that's the reason for the fumble.

So, Alabama has two scoring drives, one drive they self destructed because of back-to-back blown snaps, and Milroe doesn't do something runners in high school do. Alabama beat Alabama in the second half.

Michigan had one good drive the entire second half. One. Michigan forced 2 punts, and the second punt was when Alabama was trying to go fast and passing to get into field goal range - not running, which Michigan had not stopped since the first half.

It's laughable that you only want to look at a whole game in terms of outcomes and results. By any metric, Alabama dominated the 2nd half of that game.

Compare it to the first half. Alabama had 2 good drives: the first TD where Michigan gifted them field position (4 runs for 44 yards), and a 10 play drive for a FG. In the 1st half, Alabama was balances, with 12 runs and 13 passes. In the second half, they called 18 runs and 10 passes before the last drive, which was an obvious passing situation (not counting the 2 botched snaps, because who knows what those plays were).

Alabama got 134 of their 172 yards in the second half. Michigan had 232 yards in the 1st half and 119 in the second half - 75 coming on their last drive.

Again, Alabama beat themselves in the 2nd half of that game, because if they don't make those mistakes, it's Michale Penix vs. the Tide next week.

 

[misterchainsaw]

Pretty rich not giving credit to the defense for not making a stop when they forced a 50+ yard field goal attempt.

Without Michigan's special teams mistakes, Alabama didn't even play well enough in the 2nd half to get back to even. It's almost like it's college football - both teams made mistakes, both teams had periods of the upper hand in terms of territorial play (but absolutely NOT dominance, because the team on the back foot made enough plays to stay afloat) and Michigan made the plays at the end to overcome their own mistakes and win.

 

[whiplash]

If the Michigan PR doesn't muff two, this isn't even a conversation... Wild to think a team and coach aren't responsible for overcoming their mistakes, then using that to deny UM (who did) credit for winning.

 

[Der Jaeger]

I’m not denying UM credit. They played well in the first half, and then put together a fantastic drive to tie the game late. Then in overtime, Michigan played well on both sides of the ball.

In between the first half and Michigan’s scoring drive, Alabama had the chance to pull away, but they beat themselves. If you’re not seeing that, I don’t know what game you watched.